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Best Estimate (best + estimate)
Selected AbstractsMeasuring dispersal and detecting departures from a random walk model in a grasshopper hybrid zoneECOLOGICAL ENTOMOLOGY, Issue 2 2003R. I. Bailey Abstract. 1. The grasshopper species Chorthippus brunneus and C. jacobsi form a complex mosaic hybrid zone in northern Spain. Two mark,release,recapture studies were carried out near the centre of the zone in order to make direct estimates of lifetime dispersal. 2. A model framework based on a simple random walk in homogeneous habitat was extended to include the estimation of philopatry and flying propensity. Each model was compared with the real data, correcting for spatial and temporal biases in the data sets. 3. All four data sets (males and females at each site) deviated significantly from a random walk. Three of the data sets showed strong philopatry and three had a long dispersal tail, indicating a low propensity to move further than predicted by the random walk model. 4. Neighbourhood size estimates were 76 and 227 for the two sites. These estimates may underestimate effective population size, which could be increased by the long tail to the dispersal function. The random walk model overestimates lifetime dispersal and hence the minimum spatial scale of adaptation. 5. Best estimates of lifetime dispersal distance of 7,33 m per generation were considerably lower than a previous indirect estimate of 1344 m per generation. This discrepancy could be influenced by prezygotic isolation, an inherent by-product of mosaic hybrid zone structure. [source] Estimating fog deposition at a Puerto Rican elfin cloud forest site: comparison of the water budget and eddy covariance methodsHYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 13 2006F. Holwerda Abstract The deposition of fog to a wind-exposed 3 m tall Puerto Rican cloud forest at 1010 m elevation was studied using the water budget and eddy covariance methods. Fog deposition was calculated from the water budget as throughfall plus stemflow plus interception loss minus rainfall corrected for wind-induced loss and effect of slope. The eddy covariance method was used to calculate the turbulent liquid cloud water flux from instantaneous turbulent deviations of the surface-normal wind component and cloud liquid water content as measured at 4 m above the forest canopy. Fog deposition rates according to the water budget under rain-free conditions (0·11 ± 0·05 mm h,1) and rainy conditions (0·24 ± 0·13 mm h,1) were about three to six times the eddy-covariance-based estimate (0·04 ± 0·002 mm h,1). Under rain-free conditions, water-budget-based fog deposition rates were positively correlated with horizontal fluxes of liquid cloud water (as calculated from wind speed and liquid water content data). Under rainy conditions, the correlation became very poor, presumably because of errors in the corrected rainfall amounts and very high spatial variability in throughfall. It was demonstrated that the turbulent liquid cloud water fluxes as measured at 4 m above the forest could be only ,40% of the fluxes at the canopy level itself due to condensation of moisture in air moving upslope. Other factors, which may have contributed to the discrepancy in results obtained with the two methods, were related to effects of footprint mismatch and methodological problems with rainfall measurements under the prevailing windy conditions. Best estimates of annual fog deposition amounted to ,770 mm year,1 for the summit cloud forest just below the ridge top (according to the water budget method) and ,785 mm year,1 for the cloud forest on the lower windward slope (using the eddy-covariance-based deposition rate corrected for estimated vertical flux divergence). Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] A Rearrangement of Azobenzene upon Interaction with an Aluminum(I) Monomer LAl {L = HC[(CMe)(NAr)]2, Ar = 2,6- iPr2C6H3}EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF INORGANIC CHEMISTRY, Issue 11 2005Hongping Zhu Abstract Reaction of LAl (1) or [LAl{,2 -C2(SiMe3)2}] (2) {L = HC[(CMe)(NAr)]2, Ar = 2,6- iPr2C6H3} with azobenzene affords a five-membered ring compound [LAl{N(H)- o -C6H4N(Ph)}] (3). In the formation of 3 a three-membered intermediate [LAl(,2 -N2Ph2)] (A) is suggested by a [1 + 2] cycloaddition reaction; A is not stable and further rearranges to 3. DFT calculations on similar compounds with modified L' {L' = HC[(CMe)(NPh)]2} show that the complexation energy of the reaction of L'Al with azobenzene to form [L'Al(,2 -N2Ph2)] is about,39 kcal,mol,1, and the best estimate of the energy difference between [L'Al(,2 -N2Ph2)] and [L'Al{N(H)- o -C6H4N(Ph)}] is,76 kcal,mol,1. (© Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, 69451 Weinheim, Germany, 2005) [source] Gravel-Corrected Kd ValuesGROUND WATER, Issue 6 2000Daniel I. Kaplan Standard measurements of solute sorption to sediments are typically made on the <2 mm sediment fraction. This fraction is used by researchers to standardize the method and to ease experimental protocol so that large labware is not required to accommodate the gravel fraction (>2 mm particles). Since sorption is a phenomenon directly related to surface area, sorption measurements based on the <2 mm fraction would be expected to overestimate actual whole-sediment values for sediments containing gravel. This inaccuracy is a problem for ground water contaminant transport modelers who use laboratory-derived sorption values, typically expressed as a distribution coefficients (Kd), to calculate the retardation factor (Rf), a parameter that accounts for solute-sediment chemical interactions. The objectives of this laboratory study were to quantify the effect of gravel on strontium Kd and Rf values and to develop an empirical method to calculate gravel-corrected Kdgc values for the study site (Hanford Site in Richland, Washington). Three gravel corrections, Kd values, were evaluated: a correction based on the assumption that the gravel simply diluted the Kd<2mm and had no sorption capacity (Kdgc,g=0), a correction based on the assumption that the Kd of the intact sediment (Kdtot was a composite of the Kd<2mm and the Kd>2mm (Kdgc,g = x), and a correction based on surface area (Kdgc,surf). On average, Kd<2mm tended to overestimate Kdtot by 28% to 47%; Kdgc,g = x overestimated Kdtot by only 3% to 5%; and Kdgc,g = 0 and Kdgc,surf underestimated Kdtot by 10% to 39%. Kdgc,g = x provided the best estimate of actual values (Kdtot); however, Kdgc,g = 0 was appreciably easier to acquire. Although other contaminants will likely have different gravel-correction values, these results have important implications regarding the traditional approach to modeling contaminant transport which uses Kd<2mm values. Such calculations may overestimate the tendency of gravel-containing sediments to retard contaminant migration. [source] Market Efficiency, Bounded Rationality, and Supplemental Business Reporting DisclosuresJOURNAL OF ACCOUNTING RESEARCH, Issue 2 2001J. Richard Dietrich The AICPA Special Committee on Financial Reporting has urged disclosure of relevant forward-looking information on risks and opportunities to supplement conventional financial statements. We conduct a laboratory market experiment to assess the effects of such disclosures on capital allocation decisions. We develop two sets of competing hypotheses regarding how capital markets react to supplemental disclosures. One set is based on the assumption of semi-strong market efficiency, while the other posits that the bounded rationality of individual traders leads to inefficient market prices. We find that explicit disclosure of management's best estimate of an uncertain quantity improves market efficiency, even though this disclosure is redundant with information in financial statements. Second, we find disclosure of an upper bound of management's estimate has the potential to bias security prices upward, while informationally equivalent disclosure of both upper and lower bounds removes this bias. These results suggest that experimental market reactions to these supplemental disclosures are inconsistent with market efficiency. Supplemental analyses of individuals' price predictions and trading behavior support our conclusion that inefficiencies are at least partially attributable to individual information processing biases. [source] Real Options: Meeting the Georgetown ChallangeJOURNAL OF APPLIED CORPORATE FINANCE, Issue 2 2005Thomas E. Copeland In response to the demand for a single, generally accepted real options methodology, this article proposes a four-step process leading to a practical solution to most applications of real option analysis. The first step is familiar: calculate the standard net present value of the project assuming no managerial flexibility, which results in a value estimate (and a "branch" of a decision tree) for each year of the project's life. The second step estimates the volatility of the value of the project and produces a value tree designed to capture the main sources of uncertainty. Note that the authors focus on the uncertainty about overall project value, which is driven by uncertainty in revenue growth, operating margins, operating leverage, input costs, and technology. The key point here is that, in contrast to many real options approaches, none of these variables taken alone is assumed to be a reliable surrogate for the uncertainty of the project itself. For example, in assessing the option value of a proven oil reserve, the relevant measure of volatility is the volatility not of oil prices, but of the value of the operating entity,that is, the project value without leverage. The third step attempts to capture managerial flexibility using a decision "tree" that illustrates the decisions to be made, their possible outcomes, and their corresponding probabilities. The article illustrate various kinds of applications, including a phased investment in a chemical plant (which is treated as a compound option) and an investment in a peak-load power plant (a switching option with changing variance, which precludes the use of constant risk-neutral probabilities as in standard decision tree analysis). The fourth and final step uses a "no-arbitrage" approach to form a replicating portfolio with the same payouts as the real option. For most corporate investment projects, it is impossible to locate a "twin security" that trades in the market. In the absence of such a security, the conventional NPV of a project (again, without flexibility) is the best candidate for a perfectly correlated underlying asset because it represents management's best estimate of value based on the expected cash flows of the project. [source] A test of methods for estimating population size of the invasive land snail Achatina fulica in dense vegetationJOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY, Issue 4 2002Paul G. Craze Summary 1Physical inaccessibility often complicates censuses of poorly mobile organisms. We therefore assessed the effectiveness of using a sample of quadrat counts to generate a population estimate corrected for inaccessible areas. The result is directly applicable to management of the introduced snail Achatina fulica on Ile aux Aigrettes, a small island off Mauritius, but also has implications for counting this and similar species elsewhere. Accurate counting of A. fulica is important given that this species is such a widespread and serious pest. 2Counts were made in 17 quadrats taken from a grid covering the island. These were used to produce one population estimate by interpolating for the rest of the grid using GIS software (method 1). A second estimate assumed equal density of snails in accessible and inaccessible parts of the 17 quadrats, again with the population estimate interpolated (method 2). 3Four further quadrats were cleared of vegetation and, by comparison of counts before and after clearance, the relationship between initial count and true snail number was estimated. This resulted in two further population estimates, with the relationship used to adjust counts in the 17 experimental quadrats before interpolation (methods 3 and 4). 4All four estimates were tested using 35 additional quadrats of two types. Type 1 quadrats were physically cleared of vegetation; type 2 quadrats were fully accessible without clearance. Predicted counts in these quadrats were assessed for accuracy by comparison with actual counts. 5The method 1 estimate was clearly inadequate; method 4 gave a consistent overestimate; method 2 gave the smallest error in both quadrat types. In type 1 quadrats, method 2 and 3 estimates were not significantly different and method 2 had a slight tendency to underestimate. Overall, for studies of A. fulica, method 2 is recommended. However, it should be noted that the study took place towards the end of the wet season. In the dry season, damp refuges under inaccessible vegetation may be more important and methods 3 and 4 may then give a better estimate. 6The population of A. fulica with shell length > 10 mm on Ile aux Aigrettes near the end of the wet season in 2000 was between 37 300 and 45 100, with 39 700 being the best estimate. 7The results underline the importance of considering inaccessible areas when accurate counts of species are needed, and a method is suggested by which a simple census technique can be adjusted. In the case of A. fulica, more accurate estimates of population size and distribution are invaluable in the management, monitoring and eradication of this invasive species. [source] The Changing Epidemiology of AutismJOURNAL OF APPLIED RESEARCH IN INTELLECTUAL DISABILITIES, Issue 4 2005Eric Fombonne This article reviews epidemiological studies of autism and related disorders. Study designs and sample characteristics are summarized. Currently, conservative prevalence estimates are: 13/10000 for autistic disorder, 21/10000 for pervasive developmental disorders not otherwise specified, 2.6/10000 for Asperger disorder, and 2/100000 for childhood disintegrative disorder. Newer surveys suggest that the best estimate for the prevalence of all autistic spectrum disorders is close to 0.6%. A detailed analysis of time trends in rates of pervasive developmental disorders in then provided. It is concluded that most of the increase is accounted for by changes in diagnostic concepts and criteria, and by improved identification. Whether or not there is, in addition to these factors, a true increase in the incidence of the disorder cannot be examined from available data. [source] Efficient use of nonequilibrium measurement to estimate free energy differences for molecular systemsJOURNAL OF COMPUTATIONAL CHEMISTRY, Issue 14 2004F. Marty Ytreberg Abstract A promising method for calculating free energy differences ,F is to generate nonequilibrium data via "fast-growth" simulations or by experiments,and then use Jarzynski's equality. However, a difficulty with using Jarzynski's equality is that ,F estimates converge very slowly and unreliably due to the nonlinear nature of the calculation,thus requiring large, costly data sets. The purpose of the work presented here is to determine the best estimate for ,F given a (finite) set of work values previously generated by simulation or experiment. Exploiting statistical properties of Jarzynski's equality, we present two fully automated analyses of nonequilibrium data from a toy model, and various simulated molecular systems. Both schemes remove at least several kBT of bias from ,F estimates, compared to direct application of Jarzynski's equality, for modest sized data sets (100 work values), in all tested systems. Results from one of the new methods suggest that good estimates of ,F can be obtained using 5,40-fold less data than was previously possible. Extending previous work, the new results exploit the systematic behavior of bias due to finite sample size. A key innovation is better use of the more statistically reliable information available from the raw data. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Comput Chem 25: 1749,1759, 2004 [source] Ab initio investigation on the reaction path and rate for the gas-phase reaction of HO + H2O , H2O + OHJOURNAL OF COMPUTATIONAL CHEMISTRY, Issue 13 2003Tadafumi Uchimaru Abstract This article describes an ab initio investigation on the potential surfaces for one of the simplest hydrogen atom abstraction reactions, that is, HO + H2O , H2O + OH. In accord with the findings in the previously reported theoretical investigations, two types of the hydrogen-bonding complexes [HOHOH] and [H2OHO] were located on the potential energy surface. The water molecule acts as a hydrogen donor in the [HOHOH] complex, while the OH radical acts as a hydrogen donor in the [H2OHO] complex. The energy evaluations at the MP2(FC) basis set limit, as well as those through the CBS-APNO procedure, have provided estimates for enthalpies of association for these complexes at 298 K as ,2.1 , ,2.3 and ,4.1 , ,4.3 kcal/mol, respectively. The IRC calculations have suggested that the [H2OHO] complex should be located along the reaction coordinate for the hydrogen abstraction. Our best estimate for the classical barrier height for the hydrogen abstraction is 7.8 kcal/mol, which was obtained from the CBS-APNO energy evaluations. After fitting the CBS-APNO potential energy curve to a symmetrical Eckart function, the rate constants were calculated by using the transition state theory including the tunneling correction. Our estimates for the Arrhenius parameters in the temperature region from 300 to 420 K show quite reasonable agreement with the experimentally derived values. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Comput Chem 24: 1538,1548, 2003 [source] Tropical forest tree mortality, recruitment and turnover rates: calculation, interpretation and comparison when census intervals varyJOURNAL OF ECOLOGY, Issue 6 2004SIMON L. LEWIS Summary 1Mathematical proofs show that rate estimates, for example of mortality and recruitment, will decrease with increasing census interval when obtained from censuses of non-homogeneous populations. This census interval effect could be confounding or perhaps even driving conclusions from comparative studies involving such rate estimates. 2We quantify this artefact for tropical forest trees, develop correction methods and re-assess some previously published conclusions about forest dynamics. 3Mortality rates of > 50 species at each of seven sites in Africa, Latin America, Asia and Australia were used as subpopulations to simulate stand-level mortality rates in a heterogeneous population when census intervals varied: all sites showed decreasing stand mortality rates with increasing census interval length. 4Stand-level mortality rates from 14 multicensus long-term forest plots from Africa, Latin America, Asia and Australia also showed that, on average, mortality rates decreased with increasing census interval length. 5Mortality, recruitment or turnover rates with differing census interval lengths can be compared using the mean rate of decline from the 14 long-term plots to standardize estimates to a common census length using ,corr = , × t0.08, where , is the rate and t is time between censuses in years. This simple general correction should reduce the bias associated with census interval variation, where it is unavoidable. 6Re-analysis of published results shows that the pan-tropical increase in stem turnover rates over the late 20th century cannot be attributed to combining data with differing census intervals. In addition, after correction, Old World tropical forests do not have significantly lower turnover rates than New World sites, as previously reported. Our pan-tropical best estimate adjusted stem turnover rate is 1.81 ± 0.16% a,1 (mean ± 95% CI, n = 65). 7As differing census intervals affect comparisons of mortality, recruitment and turnover rates, and can lead to erroneous conclusions, standardized field methods, the calculation of local correction factors at sites where adequate data are available, or the use of our general standardizing formula to take account of sample intervals, are to be recommended. [source] Within night correlations between radar and ground counts of migrating songbirdsJOURNAL OF FIELD ORNITHOLOGY, Issue 2 2008Michael L. Peckford ABSTRACT Studies comparing numbers of nocturnal migrants in flight with numbers of migrants at stopover sites have produced equivocal results. In 2003, we compared numbers of nocturnal migrants detected by radar to numbers of passerines observed at the Atlantic Bird Observatory in southwestern Nova Scotia, Canada. Numbers of nocturnal migrants detected by radar were positively correlated with numbers of migrants as determined by mist-netting, censuses, and daily estimated totals (daily estimates of birds present based netting and census results and casual observations) the following day. On nights with winds favorable for migration (tailwinds), the peak correlation between ground counts and radar counts the night before occurred just after sunset. On nights with unfavorable winds (headwinds), the correlation increased through the night, with a peak just before sunrise. The patterns of correlation are consistent with a scenario where birds accumulate at the coastline during periods of unfavorable wind, likely because they are not willing to cross a major ecological barrier, the Gulf of Maine. On nights with favorable winds, many birds departed, but some, possibly after testing wind conditions, apparently decided not to cross the Gulf of Maine and returned. Our results suggest that combining data collected using different methods to generate a daily estimated total provides the best estimate of the number of migrants present at a stopover site. Simultaneous studies at multiple locations where different census methods are used, making more effective use of temporal data (both from radar and diurnal counts), will more clearly elucidate patterns of flight behavior by migratory songbirds and the relationship between ground counts and counts of birds aloft. SINOPSIS Estudios cuales comparan los números de aves migratorias en vuelo durante la noche con los números de aves migratorias en sitios de reposo han producido resultados desiguales. En el 2003, comparamos los números de aves migratorias nocturnas detectadas por radar con los números de aves de Passeriformes observadas en el Atlantic Bird Observatory en el sudoeste de Nueva Escocia, Canadá. Los números de aves migratorias detectadas por radar fueron positivamente correlacionados con los números de aves migratorias detectadas mediante la captura con redes de neblina, por censos y por estimaciones diarias totales (el número de aves migratorias basado en capturas, censos y observaciones no-estandarizadas) durante el próximo día. En noches con vientos favorables para la migración (vientos de cola), el punto máximo de la correlación entre los conteos hechos en la tierra con los conteos hechas mediante radar durante la noche anterior ocurrió justo después de la puesta del sol. En noches con vientos no-favorables para la migración (vientos de frente), la correlación incrementó durante la noche, con un punto máximo justo antes del amanecer. Los patrones de las correlaciones son consistentes con una situación en la cual las aves se acumulan sobre la costa del mar durante periodos de viento no-favorables, probablemente porque no están dispuestos a cruzar una barrera ecológica de mayor tamaño, cual es el Golfo de Maine. En noches con vientos favorables, muchas aves partieron, pero algunos, posiblemente después de probar las condiciones de viento, aparentemente decidieron no cruzar el Golfo de Maine y retornaron. Nuestros resultados sugieren que una combinación de datos colectados utilizando diferentes métodos para generar una estimación diaria total provee la mejor estimación del número de aves migratorias presentes en un sitio de reposo. Estudios simultáneos hechos en múltiples sitios donde diferentes métodos de censo son utilizados, realizando un uso mas efectivo de los datos tomados a través del tiempo (provenientes de conteos mediante radar así como de observadores durante el día), mostrarán mas claramente cuales son los patrones del vuelo de las aves migratorias y la relación entre los conteos hechos en la tierra y los conteos de aves en alto vuelo. [source] Short and long-run returns to agricultural R&D in South Africa, or will the real rate of return please stand up?AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS, Issue 1 2000David Schimmelpfennig Abstract This paper briefly presents the results of a total factor productivity (TFP) study of South African commercial agriculture, for 1947-1997, and illustrates some potential pitfalls in rate of return to research (ROR) calculations. The lag between R&D and TFP is analyzed and found to be only 9 years, with a pronounced negative skew, reflecting the adaptive focus of the South African system. The two-stage approach gives a massive ROR of 170%. The predetermined lag parameters are then used in modeling the knowledge stock, to refine the estimates of the ROR from short- and long-run dual profit functions. In the short run, with the capital inputs treated as fixed, the ROR is a more reasonable 44%. In the long run, with adjustment of the capital stocks, it rises to 113%, which would reflect the fact that new technology is embodied in the capital items. However, the long-run model raises a new problem since capital stock adjustment takes 11 years, 2 years longer than the lag between R&D and TFP. If this is assumed to be the correct lag, the ROR falls to 58%, a best estimate. The paper draws attention to the possible sensitivity of rate of return calculations to assumed lag structure, particularly when the lag between changes in R&D and TFP is skewed. [source] Lawyers' Roles in Voluntary Associations: Declining Social Capital?LAW & SOCIAL INQUIRY, Issue 3 2001John P. Heinz The extent and nature of lawyers'participation in civic life probably has important effects on the character of the community's activity and its out-comes. Where and how lawyers participate in voluntary associations may influence the ability of those organizations to function within the larger structure of American institutions. This paper compares findings from two surveys of Chicago lawyers, the first conducted in 1975 and the second in 1994-95. Contrary to some expectations, the available evidence does not suggest that community activities of lawyers decreased. Moreover, lawyers'energies in 1995 appear to have been devoted more often to socially concerned organizations, those with a reformist agenda, than had been the case in 1975. The types of organizations with the greatest increase in activity were religious and civic associations. A smaller percentage of the respondents held leadership positions in 1995 than in 1975, but, because of a doubling in the number of lawyers, the best estimate is that the bar's absolute level of contribution to community leadership did not change greatly. In both 1975 and 1995, a hierarchy of social prestige appears to have influenced the pattern of lawyers'community activities. Lawyers who had higher incomes, were middle-aged, were Protestants, and who had attended elite law schools were more likely to be active or leaders in most kinds of organizations. In ethnic and fraternal organizations, however, the elites of the profession had relatively low rates of participation, while government lawyers, solo practitioners, and graduates of less prestigious law schools predominated. Status hierarchies within the broader community,as well as social differences in taste, preference, or "culture",clearly penetrate the bar. [source] ABUNDANCE OF BOTTLENOSE DOLPHINS IN THE BAYS, SOUNDS, AND ESTUARIES OF NORTH CAROLINAMARINE MAMMAL SCIENCE, Issue 1 2003Andrew J. Read We conducted a mark-recapture survey of bottlenose dolphins Tursiops truncatus in the bays, sounds, and estuaries of North Carolina during July 2000, using photographic identification techniques. During this survey we took 7,682 photographs of dolphins and, of these, 3,457 images were of sufficient quality for analysis. We identified 306 dolphins from distinctive nicks and notches on their dorsal fins. Eighry-six dolphins were photographed on more than one occasion during the course of the survey; one dolphin was photographed on four separate days. We then applied the results of our photographic analyses to several mark-recapture models and examined potential violations of the assumptions of these models, including an unexpected correlation between photo quality and mark distinctiveness. Our analysis suggests that our results are robusr to possible violations of these assumptions. The resulting estimates were then scaled to account for the proportion (0.46) of unmarked dolphins in the population. Our best estimate of the number of dolphins present in the inshore waters of North Carolina during July 2000 is 1,033 with a 95% Confidence Interval of 860,1,266 (CV = 0.099). Most dolphins were found in the northern part of the study area, which includes the second largest estuarine system in the United States. [source] 182Hf- 182W chronometry and the early evolution history in the acapulcoite-lodranite parent bodyMETEORITICS & PLANETARY SCIENCE, Issue 4 2008Der-Chuen LEE Unlike the more evolved achondrites originating from differentiated asteroids,e.g., eucrites and angrites,bulk rock acapulcoites and lodranite are characterized by distinct 182W deficits relative to the terrestrial W, as well as to the undifferentiated chondrites, ,w varies from ,2.7 to ,2.4. This suggests that live- 182Hf was present during the formation of acapulcoites and lodranites, and their parent body probably had never experienced a global melting event. Due to the large uncertainties associated with the isochron for each sample, the bulk isochron that regressed through the mineral separates from all 3 samples has provided the best estimate to date for the timing of metamorphism in the acapulcoite-lodranite parent body, 5 (+6/-5) Myr after the onset of the solar system. It is thus inconclusive whether acapulcoites and lodranites have shared the same petrogenetic origin, based on the Hf-W data of this study. Nevertheless, the formation of acapulcoite-lodranite clan appears to have post-dated the metal-silicate segregation in differentiated asteroids. This can be explained by a slower accretion rate for the acapulcoite-lodranite parent body, or that it had never accreted to a critical mass that could allow the metal-silicate segregation to occur naturally. [source] An introduction to medical statistics for health care professionals: Hypothesis tests and estimationMUSCULOSKELETAL CARE, Issue 2 2005Elaine Thomas PhD MSc BSc Lecturer in Biostatistics Abstract This article is the second in a series of three that will give health care professionals (HCPs) a sound introduction to medical statistics (Thomas, 2004). The objective of research is to find out about the population at large. However, it is generally not possible to study the whole of the population and research questions are addressed in an appropriate study sample. The next crucial step is then to use the information from the sample of individuals to make statements about the wider population of like individuals. This procedure of drawing conclusions about the population, based on study data, is known as inferential statistics. The findings from the study give us the best estimate of what is true for the relevant population, given the sample is representative of the population. It is important to consider how accurate this best estimate is, based on a single sample, when compared to the unknown population figure. Any difference between the observed sample result and the population characteristic is termed the sampling error. This article will cover the two main forms of statistical inference (hypothesis tests and estimation) along with issues that need to be addressed when considering the implications of the study results. Copyright © 2005 Whurr Publishers Ltd. [source] Sampling designs of insect time series data: are they all irregularly spaced?OIKOS, Issue 1 2009D. V. Beresford Time series data are commonly obtained by trapping over a standardized period of time, for example daily or weekly. In this paper we present evidence that such sampling designs are inherently irregularly spaced due to the varying developmental rates and population parameters caused by changing temperatures during a sampling season. We modeled an exponentially growing population based on stable fly population growth rates, and then compare different sampling regimes to determine which produces the best estimate of population growth rate. These results are then compared to field data based on weekly sampling at three dairy farms in Ontario over two summers. Transforming catch numbers (N) to ln(N)/(number of degree days within the sampling period) corrects for the irregular spaced sampling in these data. These results support the use of measuring population parameters such as population growth rates in terms of degree days. [source] ADJUSTED ESTIMATES OF UNITED STATES,CHINA BILATERAL TRADE BALANCES: AN UPDATEPACIFIC ECONOMIC REVIEW, Issue 3 2006K. C. Fung In this paper, four adjustments are made to the export and import data of the two governments: (i) freight along side (f.a.s.)-free on board (f.o.b.) and cost, insurance and freight (c.i.f.)-f.o.b. conversions; (ii) re-exports through Hong Kong (and elsewhere); (iii) re-export markups; and (iv) trade in services. After adjustments, our best estimate for the 2005 bilateral trade balance is $US170.7 billion, in China's favour, which is much larger than the official Chinese balance of $US114.2 billion but also much smaller than the official US balance of $US201.6 billion. [source] Solar UVR exposures of indoor workers in a Working and a Holiday Period assessed by personal dosimeters and sun exposure diariesPHOTODERMATOLOGY, PHOTOIMMUNOLOGY & PHOTOMEDICINE, Issue 6 2001E. Thieden Background/Aim: The aim of this study was to quantify ultraviolet radiation (UVR) exposure of fully employed indoor workers during a Working Period and a Holiday Period in the summer months. A further aim was to investigate the correlation between individual personal UVR dosimeter reading and self-reported data in a diary about sun exposure habits and to investigate whether skin type, age and gender influence sun exposure. Methods: The solar UVR, in standard erythema doses (SED) measured by UV sensitive spore-film filter type personal dosimeters (VioSpor®), and sun exposure diaries were compared. The study included 44 healthy Danish adult indoor workers during a Working Period of a mean of 13 days and a Holiday Period of a mean of 17 days from June to September. Results: The individual total UVR exposure correlated significantly (P<0.001) in both the Holiday and Working Periods with individual total hours spent outdoors from 07:00 to 19:00 and with skin area exposure hours. There was no significant correlation between sun exposure dose and gender, age or skin type I-IV, or between the individual solar exposure dose in the Working and the Holiday Period. However, subjects with UVR exposures in the upper quartile spent their Holiday Period in Southern Europe, and/or had been more than the mean time outdoors at the beach/sea and/or between 12:00 and 15:00. Subjects with UVR exposure in the lower quartiles spent their holidays in Denmark or Northern Europe and did not stay at the beach at all. They received an average solar UVR dose which was 22% of ambient in Denmark in the same period while subjects having their holidays in Southern Europe received as much as 90% of the ambient dose in Denmark. Conclusions: Despite information campaigns to avoid the midday sun, on average 35% of the recorded hours outdoors were spent between 12:00 and 15:00 in the Holiday Period. Total hours outdoors give the best estimate of the total sun exposure dose. Registration in a diary of total hours outdoors and whether the Holiday Period was in Northern or Southern Europe can be used to predict the solar exposure dose in a Holiday Period of a few weeks. [source] A comparison of three estimators of the Weibull parametersQUALITY AND RELIABILITY ENGINEERING INTERNATIONAL, Issue 4 2001Katina R. Skinner Abstract Using mean square error as the criterion, we compare two least squares estimates of the Weibull parameters based on non-parametric estimates of the unreliability with the maximum likelihood estimates (MLEs). The two non-parametric estimators are that of Herd,Johnson and one recently proposed by Zimmer. Data was generated using computer simulation with three small sample sizes (5, 10 and 15) with three multiply-censored patterns for each sample size. Our results indicate that the MLE is a better estimator of the Weibull characteristic value, ,, than the least squares estimators considered. No firm conclusions may be made regarding the best estimate of the Weibull shape parameter, although the use of maximum likelihood is not recommended for small sample sizes. Whenever least squares estimation of both Weibull parameters is appropriate, we recommend the use of the Zimmer estimator of reliability. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Optimal Valuation of Claims on Noisy Real Assets: Theory and an ApplicationREAL ESTATE ECONOMICS, Issue 3 2002Paul D. Childs A theory for valuing claims on noisy real assets is developed and applied. Central to the theory is determination of the dynamics for the best estimate of real asset value. The dynamics of the value estimate are shown to differ from the dynamics of the true asset value only in the arrival rate of information. The rate of information arrival in the value estimate can be faster or slower than information arrival in the true asset value, which can lead to unexpected outcomes in the valuation and exercise of options on noisy real assets. The theory we develop is illustrated through an application. An imperfectly competitive market for real estate development is examined, in which agents compete over the timing of lead investment. Information spillover and free,rider incentives are shown to cause significant delay in lead investment. Delay together with a competitive response once lead investment has occurred explain observed patterns of development in gentrified urban land markets and multistage development projects. [source] Distribution and abundance of patas monkeys (Erythrocebus patas) in Laikipia, Kenya, 1979,2004AMERICAN JOURNAL OF PRIMATOLOGY, Issue 11 2007Lynne A. Isbell Abstract Patas monkeys may be especially vulnerable to local extinction because they live in relatively small, female-philopatric groups at low densities and are strongly polygynous. We assessed a patas monkey population in Kenya's 9,700 km2 Laikipia District over 25 years, using data collected in 1979,1981 and 1992,2004. The data were based on intensive observations of three study groups, "on the ground" counts, and surveys of Laikipia residents. In 1979,1981, a minimum of 415 patas monkeys lived in 14,15 groups. By 2000, the best estimate suggested 310,445 patas monkeys living in 13,17 groups over a greater surveyed area, suggesting that patas monkeys in Laikipia may have undergone a slight decline in numbers over time. Their distribution, however, was similar over time. The relative stability of this population has likely been the result of beneficial co-existence with large-scale cattle ranching. Outside Laikipia, substantial habitat alteration from rising human populations has coincided with the near disappearance of patas monkeys where they were previously more numerous. The small population in Laikipia, probably the largest remaining in Kenya, may therefore be critical to the continued existence of patas monkeys in that country and may be dependent on maintenance of large-scale ranches. Such land use provides patas monkeys with water and broad expanses of Acacia drepanolobium woodlands, the habitat to which patas are restricted in Laikipia. Am. J. Primatol. 69:1223,1235, 2007. © 2007 Wiley-Liss, Inc. [source] A review on the use of the adjoint method in four-dimensional atmospheric-chemistry data assimilationTHE QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, Issue 576 2001K.-Y. Wang Abstract In this paper we review a theoretical formulation of the adjoint method to be used in four-dimensional (4D) chemistry data assimilation. The goal of the chemistry data assimilation is to combine an atmospheric-chemistry model and actual observations to produce the best estimate of the chemistry of the atmosphere. The observational dataset collected during the past decades is an unprecedented expansion of our knowledge of the atmosphere. The exploitation of these data is the best way to advance our understanding of atmospheric chemistry, and to develop chemistry models for chemistry-climate prediction. The assimilation focuses on estimating the state of the chemistry in a chemically and dynamically consistent manner (if the model allows online interactions between chemistry and dynamics). In so doing, we can: produce simultaneous and chemically consistent estimates of all species (including model parameters), observed and unobserved; fill in data voids; test the photochemical theories used in the chemistry models. In this paper, the Hilbert space is first formulated from the geometric structure of the Banach space, followed by the development of the adjoint operator in Hilbert space. The principle of the adjoint method is described, followed by two examples which show the relationship of the gradient of the cost function with respect to the output vector and the gradient of the cost function with respect to the input vector. Applications to chemistry data assimilation are presented for both continuous and discrete cases. The 4D data variational adjoint method is then tested in the assimilation of stratospheric chemistry using a simple catalytic ozone-destruction mechanism, and the test results indicate that the performance of the assimilation method is good. [source] Comparing Travel Cost Models And The Precision Of Their Consumer Surplus Estimates: Albert Park And Maroondah ReservoirAUSTRALIAN ECONOMIC PAPERS, Issue 4 2003Nicola Lansdell This study examines different types of Travel Cost Models to estimate and compare the recreational values of two parks in Victoria, Australia: Maroondah Reservoir and Albert Park. Zonal Travel Cost models and a number of different functional forms are used in this study. Standard errors are used to estimate upper and lower bounds for the recreational value estimates, enabling comparison between the precision of the different types of Travel Cost Models and functional forms estimated. The double log functional form city zone Travel Cost Model was chosen as the best estimate for Albert Park's recrea-tional value at $22.9 million per year. Maroondah Reservoir's best estimate is provided by the double log functional form regional zone Travel Cost Model at a value of $2.5 million per year, consider-ably less than that of Albert Park. Albert Park is found to have a comparatively larger ,proximity power' (attracting many more visitors) while Maroondah Reservoir exhibited a larger degree of ,pulling power' (a higher proportion of its visitors travel further distances). [source] GENETIC EVIDENCE ON THE DEMOGRAPHY OF SPECIATION IN ALLOPATRIC DOLPHIN SPECIESEVOLUTION, Issue 4 2002Matthew P. Hare Abstract Under a neutral model, the stochastic lineage sorting that leads to gene monophyly proceeds slowly in large populations. Therefore, in many recent species with large population size, the genome will have mixed support for monophyly unless historical bottlenecks have accelerated coalescence. We use genealogical patterns in mitochondrial DNA and in introns of four nuclear loci to test for historical bottlenecks during the speciation and divergence of two temperate Lagenorhynchus dolphin species isolated by tropical Pacific waters (an antitropical distribution). Despite distinct morphologies, foraging behaviors, and mitochondrial DNAs, these dolphin species are polyphyletic at all four nuclear loci. The abundance of shared polymorphisms between these sister taxa is most consistent with the maintenance of large effective population sizes (5.09 × 104 to 10.9 × 104) during 0.74,1.05 million years of divergence. A variety of population size histories are possible, however. We used gene tree coalescent probabilities to explore the rejection region for historical bottlenecks of different intensity given best estimates of effective population size under a strict isolation model of divergence. In L. obliquidens the data are incompatible with a colonization propagule of an effective size of 10 or fewer individuals. Although the ability to reject less extreme historical bottlenecks will require data from additional loci, the intermixed genealogical patterns observed between these dolphin sister species are highly probable only under an extended history of large population size. If similar demographic histories are inferred for other marine antitropical taxa, a parsimonious model for the Pleistocene origin of these distributions would not involve rare breaches of a constant dispersal barrier by small colonization propagules. Instead, a history of large population size in L. obliquidens and L. obscurus contributes to growing biological and environmental evidence that the equatorial barrier became permeable during glacial/interglacial cycles, leading to vicariant isolation of antitropical populations. [source] 13C-Labeled metabolic flux analysis of a fed-batch culture of elutriated Saccharomyces cerevisiaeFEMS YEAST RESEARCH, Issue 4 2007Roeland Costenoble Abstract This study addresses the question of whether observable changes in fluxes in the primary carbon metabolism of Saccharomyces cerevisiae occur between the different phases of the cell division cycle. To detect such changes by metabolic flux analysis, a 13C-labeling experiment was performed with a fed-batch culture inoculated with a partially synchronized cell population obtained through centrifugal elutriation. Such a culture exhibits dynamic changes in the fractions of cells in different cell cycle phases over time. The mass isotopomer distributions of free intracellular metabolites in central carbon metabolism were measured by liquid chromatography,mass spectrometry. For four time points during the culture, these distributions were used to obtain the best estimates for the metabolic fluxes. The obtained flux fits suggested that the optimally fitted split ratio for the pentose phosphate pathway changed by almost a factor of 2 up and down around a value of 0.27 during the experiment. Statistical analysis revealed that some of the fitted flux distributions for different time points were significantly different from each other, indicating that cell cycle-dependent variations in cytosolic metabolic fluxes indeed occurred. [source] The epidemiology of inhibitors in haemophilia A: a systematic reviewHAEMOPHILIA, Issue 4 2003J. Wight Summary., This paper emphasizes the importance of distinguishing between the prevalence, incidence and cumulative incidence of inhibitors in haemophilia A. Incidence and cumulative incidence data will include patients with transient inhibitors or whose inhibitors have been eliminated by treatment. As these will not be included in prevalence data, prevalence studies will tend to give rise to lower figures than incidence studies. As a result, the most accurate estimates of the true risk of inhibitor development comes from prospective studies of newly diagnosed haemophiliacs who are tested regularly for the presence of inhibitors. This paper reports a systematic review of the best available evidence relating to the epidemiology of inhibitors in haemophilia A. Cohort studies, registry data reporting incidence or prevalence of inhibitors in patients with haemophilia A, and prospective studies of factor VIII (FVIII) in the treatment of previously untreated patients which reported the development of inhibitors as an outcome, were included in the review. The overall prevalence of inhibitors in unselected haemophiliac populations was found to be 5,7%. The cumulative risk of inhibitor development varied (0,39%). Incidence and prevalence were substantially higher in patients with severe haemophilia. Studies of patients using a single plasma-derived FVIII (pdFVIII) preparation reported lower inhibitor incidence than those using multiple pdFVIII preparations or single recombinant FVIII preparations. Incidence data should be used to estimate the likely demand for treatments aimed at eliminating inhibitors, whereas the best estimates of the overall burden to the National Health Service (NHS) of treating bleeding episodes in patients with continuing inhibitors will come from prevalence studies. [source] Ethical issues in biotechnologies and international tradeJOURNAL OF CHEMICAL TECHNOLOGY & BIOTECHNOLOGY, Issue 5 2002Joseph H Hulse Natural and physical sciences are based on determinable facts. What is ethical, as distinct from illegal, is largely a matter of opinion. Scientific and industrial activities related to ancient and modern biotechnologies are among the most critically scrutinised for ethical probity by social activists and journalists. The practices and products of biotechnologies should be judged both deontologically , by motivation and intention, and teleologically , by determinable consequence. Bioethical criteria have been proposed by governments, medical practitioners and philosophers for many centuries. During the past decade, various scientifically competent organisations, national and international, have formulated comprehensive protocols by which to determine effectiveness and safety of novel foods, pharmaceuticals and other biologicals, including those derived from genetically modified organisms. Means and opportunities by which to satisfy the health and nutritional needs of impoverished nations and communities differ significantly from those who enjoy greater affluence. It is distinctly unethical for Europeans and North Americans, whose food and health securities are not at risk, to impose their ethical predilections on poorer nations. Equally reprehensible are the diverse tariff and non-tariff barriers to equitable international trade, and acts of biopiracy inflicted upon poorer nations. As a wise Asian sage has observed, the planet's resources and scientific ingenuity are sufficient to satisfy everyone's need, but not everyone's greed. Present and predictable world-wide demand for bioscientists and bioengineers exceeds best estimates of supply. Systematically planned, long-term investments by governments and bioindustries to generate adequate qualified men and women are urgently needed. © 2002 Society of Chemical Industry. [source] The luminosity dependence of clustering and higher order correlations in the PSCz surveyMONTHLY NOTICES OF THE ROYAL ASTRONOMICAL SOCIETY, Issue 4 2000István Szapudi We investigate the spatial clustering of galaxies in the PSCz galaxy redshift survey, as revealed by the two-point correlation function, the luminosity mark correlations and the moments of counts-in-cells. We construct volume-limited subsamples at different depths and search for a luminosity dependence of the clustering pattern. We find no statistically significant effect in either the two-point correlation function or the mark correlations and so we take each subsample (of different characteristic luminosity) as representing the same statistical process. We then carry out a counts-in-cells analysis of the volume-limited subsamples, including a rigorous error calculation based on the recent theory of Szapudi, Colombi & Bernardeau. In this way, we derive the best estimates to date of the skewness and kurtosis of IRAS galaxies in redshift space. Our results agree well with previous measurements in both the parent angular catalogue and the derived redshift surveys. This is in contrast with smaller, optically selected surveys, where there is a discrepancy between the redshift space and projected measurements. Predictions from cold dark matter theory, obtained using the recent semi-analytical model of galaxy formation of Benson et al., provide an excellent description of our clustering data. [source] | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||