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Winter Rainfall (winter + rainfall)
Selected AbstractsAssessing the results of scenarios of climate and land use changes on the hydrology of an Italian catchment: modelling studyHYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 19 2010Daniela R. D'Agostino Abstract Hydrological models are recognized as valid scientific tools to study water quantity and quality and provide support for the integrated management and planning of water resources at different scales. In common with many catchments in the Mediterranean, the study catchment has many problems such as the increasing gap between water demand and supply, water quality deterioration, scarcity of available data, lack of measurements and specific information. The application of hydrological models to investigate hydrological processes in this type of catchments is of particular relevance for water planning strategies to address the possible impact of climate and land use changes on water resources. The distributed catchment scale model (DiCaSM) was selected to study the impact of climate and land use changes on the hydrological cycle and the water balance components in the Apulia region, southern Italy, specifically in the Candelaro catchment (1780 km2). The results obtained from this investigation proved the ability of DiCaSM to quantify the different components of the catchment water balance and to successfully simulate the stream flows. In addition, the model was run with the climate change scenarios for southern Italy, i.e. reduced winter rainfall by 5,10%, reduced summer rainfall by 15,20%, winter temperature rise by 1·25,1·5 °C and summer temperature rise by 1·5,1·75 °C. The results indicated that by 2050, groundwater recharge in the Candelaro catchment would decrease by 21,31% and stream flows by 16,23%. The model results also showed that the projected durum wheat yield up to 2050 is likely to decrease between 2·2% and 10·4% due to the future reduction in rainfall and increase in temperature. In the current study, the reliability of the DiCaSM was assessed when applied to the Candelaro catchment; those parameters that may cause uncertainty in model output were investigated using a generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) methodology. The results showed that DiCaSM provided a small level of uncertainty and subsequently, a higher confidence level. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Physically-based modelling of double-peak discharge responses at Slapton Wood catchmentHYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 10 2008Stephen J Birkinshaw Abstract Heavy winter rainfall produces double-peak hydrographs at the Slapton Wood catchment, Devon, UK. The first peak is saturation-excess overland flow in the hillslope hollows and the second (i.e. the delayed peak) is subsurface stormflow. The physically-based spatially-distributed model SHETRAN is used to try to improve the understanding of the processes that cause the double peaks. A three-stage (multi-scale) approach to calibration is used: (1) water balance validation for vertical one-dimensional flow at arable, grassland and woodland plots; (2) two-dimensional flow for cross-sections cutting across the stream valley; and (3) three-dimensional flow in the full catchment. The main data are for rainfall, stream discharge, evaporation, soil water potential and phreatic surface level. At each scale there was successful comparison with measured responses, using as far as possible parameter values from measurements. There was some calibration but all calibrated values at one scale were used at a larger scale. A large proportion of the subsurface runoff enters the stream from three dry valleys (hillslope hollows), and previous studies have suggested convergence of the water in the three large hollows as being the major mechanism for the production of the delayed peaks. The SHETRAN modelling suggests that the hillslopes that drain directly into the stream are also involved in producing the delayed discharges. The model shows how in the summer most of the catchment is hydraulically disconnected from the stream. In the autumn the catchment eventually ,wets up' and shallow subsurface flows are produced, with water deflected laterally along the soil-bedrock interface producing the delayed peak in the stream hydrograph. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] On the interannual wintertime rainfall variability in the Southern AndesINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 5 2010M. H. González Abstract The paper concentrates on the analysis of the interannual variability of wintertime rainfall in the Southern Andes. Besides the socio-economic relevance of the region, mainly associated with hydroelectric energy production, the study of the climate variability in that area has not received as much attention as others along the Andes. The results show that winter rainfall explains the largest percentage of regional total annuals. A principal component analysis (PCA) of the winter rainfall anomalies showed that the regional year-to-year variability is mostly explained by three leading patterns. While one of them is significantly associated with both the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), the other two patterns are significantly related to interannual changes of the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean. Specifically, changes in the ocean surface conditions at both tropical basins induce in the atmospheric circulation the generation of Rossby wave trains that extend along the South Pacific towards South America, and alter the circulation at the region under study. The relationship between variability in the Indian Ocean and the Andes climate variability has not been previously addressed. Therefore, this result makes a significant contribution to the identification of the sources of predictability in South America with relevant consequences for future applications in seasonal predictions. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Southern hemisphere cyclones and anticyclones: recent trends and links with decadal variability in the Pacific OceanINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 11 2007Dr Alexandre Bernardes Pezza Abstract The aim of this paper is to study the association between the extratropical Southern Hemisphere and the decadal variability in the Pacific Ocean (PO). We discuss a pattern of coherent large-scale anomalies and trends in cyclone and anticyclone behaviour in light of the climate variability in the PO over the ERA40 reanalysis period (1957,2002). The two representative PO indices are the Pacific Decadal and Interdecadal Oscillations (PDO and IPO), and here the PDO is chosen owing to it being less associated with the southern oscillation index (SOI). Composites of the indicators of the density and intensity of cyclones/anticyclones given by an automatic tracking scheme were calculated for the years when the PDOI was more than one standard deviation above or below its mean. Although the ERA40 is not free from noise and assimilation changes, the results show a large-scale feature, which seems to be robust and agrees with earlier studies using different data sets. The sea-level pressure shows a strong annular structure related to the PDO, which is not seen for the SOI, with lower pressure around Antarctica during the positive phase and vice versa. More intense (and fewer) cyclones and anticyclones were observed during the positive PDO. This is less consistent for the SOI, particularly during the summer when a different PDO/SOI pattern arises at high latitudes. The trends project a pattern coincident with the positive PDO phase and seem to be linked with the main climate shift in the late seventies. Trends observed over the Tasman Sea are consistent with declining winter rainfall over southeastern Australia. Most patterns are statistically significant and seem robust, but random changes in ENSO may play a part, to a certain degree, in modulating the results, and a physical mechanism of causality has not been demonstrated. Although global warming and related changes in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) may also help explain the observed behaviour, the large-scale response presented here provides a new insight and would be of considerable interest for further modelling studies. Copyright © 2007 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Consensus between GCM climate change projections with empirical downscaling: precipitation downscaling over South AfricaINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 10 2006B. C. Hewitson Abstract This paper discusses issues that surround the development of empirical downscaling techniques as context for presenting a new approach based on self-organizing maps (SOMs). The technique is applied to the downscaling of daily precipitation over South Africa. SOMs are used to characterize the state of the atmosphere on a localized domain surrounding each target location on the basis of NCEP 6-hourly reanalysis data from 1979 to 2002, and using surface and 700-hPa u and v wind vectors, specific and relative humidities, and surface temperature. Each unique atmospheric state is associated with an observed precipitation probability density function (PDF). Future climate states are derived from three global climate models (GCMs): HadAM3, ECHAM4.5, CSIRO Mk2. In each case, the GCM data are mapped to the NCEP SOMs for each target location and a precipitation value is drawn at random from the associated precipitation PDF. The downscaling approach combines the advantages of a direct transfer function and a stochastic weather generator, and provides an indication of the strength of the regional versus stochastic forcing, as well as a measure of stationarity in the atmosphere,precipitation relationship. The methodology is applied to South Africa. The downscaling reveals a similarity in the projected climate change between the models. Each GCM projects similar changes in atmospheric state and they converge on a downscaled solution that points to increased summer rainfall in the interior and the eastern part of the country, and a decrease in winter rainfall in the Western Cape. The actual GCM precipitation projections from the three models show large areas of intermodel disagreement, suggesting that the model differences may be due to their precipitation parameterization schemes, rather than to basic disagreements in their projections of the changing atmospheric state over South Africa. Copyright © 2006 Royal Meteorological Society. [source] Weather regimes and their connection to the winter rainfall in PortugalINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 1 2005J.A. Santos Abstract Wintertime rainfall over Portugal is strongly coupled with the large-scale atmospheric flow in the Euro-Atlantic sector. A K -means cluster analysis, on the space spanned by a subset of the empirical orthogonal functions of the daily mean sea-level pressure fields, is performed aiming to isolate the weather regimes responsible for the interannual variability of the winter precipitation. Each daily circulation pattern is keyed to a set of five weather regimes (C, W, NAO,, NAO+ and E). The dynamical structure of each regime substantiates the statistical properties of the respective rainfall distribution and validates the clustering technique. The C regime is related to low-pressure systems over the North Atlantic that induce southwesterly and westerly moist winds over the country. The W regime is characterized by westerly disturbed weather associated with low-pressure systems mainly located over northern Europe. The NAO, regime is manifested by weak low-pressure systems near Portugal. The NAO+ regime corresponds to a well-developed Azores high with generally settled and dry weather conditions. Finally, the E regime is related to anomalous strong easterly winds and rather dry conditions. Although the variability in the frequencies of occurrence of the C and NAO, regimes is largely dominant in the interannual variability of the winter rainfall throughout Portugal, the C regime is particularly meaningful over northern Portugal and the NAO, regime acquires higher relevance over southern Portugal. The inclusion of the W regime improves the description of the variability over northern and central Portugal. Dry weather conditions prevail in both the NAO+ and E regimes, with hardly any exceptions. The occurrence of the NAO+ and the NAO, regimes is also strongly coupled with the North Atlantic oscillation. Copyright © 2005 Royal Meteorological Society [source] The effect of large-scale circulation on precipitation and streamflow in the Gulf of California continental watershedINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 7 2003Luis Brito-Castillo Abstract The interannual variability of summer and winter rainfall and streamflow in the Gulf of California continental watershed is compared. Varimax-rotated empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis is applied to 15 streamflow series, in the period from 1960 to 1990, and two regions are defined: a central region and a southern region. Results show that in both regions, between 1944 and 1999, the long-term rainfall variability is well explained by the long-term streamflow variability in both seasons, the result being statistically significant at the 95% level. We conclude that regional streamflows in that period are climate driven. This conclusion is reinforced when we show that the large-scale circulation (700 hPa heights) explains: (i) wet and dry conditions in both regions; (ii) conditions of wet and dry years with the same signal of El Niño and La Niña events; and (iii) long-term periods in association with the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). When the PDO is in its warm phase, summers are likely to be dry with an El Niño event and wet with a La Niña event. In the cool phase of the PDO, summers are influenced by more localized events (i.e. the position of the subtropical continental ridge). In winter, warm and cool phases of the PDO are likely to be associated with wet and dry winters respectively. Copyright © 2003 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Links between circulation and changes in the characteristics of Iberian rainfallINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 13 2002C. M. Goodess Abstract Investigation of the links between atmospheric circulation patterns and rainfall is important for the understanding of climatic variability and for the development of empirical circulation-based downscaling methods. Here, spatial and temporal variations in circulation-rainfall relationships over the Iberian Peninsula during the period 1958,97 are explored using an automated circulation classification scheme and daily rainfall totals for 18 stations. Links between the circulation classification scheme and the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) are also considered, as are the direct links between rainfall and the NAO. Trends in rainfall and circulation-type frequency are explored. A general tendency towards decreasing mean seasonal rainfall over the peninsula, with the exception of the southeastern Mediterranean coast, hides larger changes in wet day amount and rainfall probability. There is a tendency towards more, less-intensive rain days across much of Iberia, with a tendency towards more, more-intensive rain days along the southeastern Mediterranean coast, both of which are reflected in changes in rainfall amount quantiles. A preliminary analysis indicates that these changes may have occurred systematically across all circulation types. Comparison of the trends in rainfall and in circulation-type frequency suggests possible links. These links are supported by linear regression analyses using circulation-type frequencies as predictor variables and rainfall totals for winter months as the predictands. The selected predictor variables reflect the main circulation features influencing winter rainfall across the peninsula, i.e. the strong influence of Atlantic westerly and southwesterly airmasses over much of the peninsula, of northerly and northwesterly surface flow over northern/northwestern Spain and northern Portugal and the stronger effect of Mediterranean rather than Atlantic influences in southeastern Spain. The observed rainfall changes cannot, however, be explained by changes in circulation alone. Copyright © 2002 Royal Meteorological Society. [source] Statistical downscaling relationships for precipitation in the Netherlands and North GermanyINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 1 2002Björn-R. Abstract The statistical linkage of daily precipitation to the National Centers for Environment Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data is described for De Bilt and Maastricht (Netherlands), and for Hamburg, Hanover and Berlin (Germany), using daily data for the period 1968,97. Two separate models were used to describe the daily precipitation at a particular site: an additive logistic model for rainfall occurrence and a generalized additive model for wet-day rainfall. Several dynamical variables and atmospheric moisture were included as predictor variables. The relative humidity at 700 hPa was considered as the moisture variable for rainfall occurrence modelling. For rainfall amount modelling, two options were compared: (i) the use of the specific humidity at 700 hPa, and (ii) the use of both the relative humidity at 700 hPa and precipitable water. An application is given with data from a time-dependent greenhouse gas forcing experiment using the coupled ECHAM4/OPYC3 atmosphere,ocean general circulation model for the periods 1968,97 and 2070,99. The fitted statistical relationships were used to estimate the changes in the mean number of wet days and the mean rainfall amounts for the winter and summer halves of the year at De Bilt, Hanover and Berlin. A decrease in the mean number of wet days was found. Despite this decrease, an increase in the mean seasonal rainfall amounts is predicted if specific humidity is used in the model for wet-day rainfall. This is caused by the larger atmospheric water content in the future climate. The effect of the increased atmospheric moisture is smaller if the alternative wet-day rainfall amount model with precipitable water and relative humidity is applied. Except for an anomalous change in mean winter rainfall at Hanover, the estimated changes from the latter model correspond quite well with those from the ECHAM4/OPYC3 model. Despite the flexibility of generalized additive models, the rainfall amount model systematically overpredicts the mean rainfall amounts in situations where extreme rainfall could be expected. Interaction between predictor effects has to be incorporated to reduce this bias. Copyright © 2002 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Abrupt increases in soil temperatures following increased precipitation in a permafrost region, central Lena River basin, RussiaPERMAFROST AND PERIGLACIAL PROCESSES, Issue 1 2010Yoshihiro Iijima Abstract Marked increases in active-layer and upper permafrost temperatures occurred in the central Lena River basin in association with abrupt increases in active-layer soil moisture following the summer of 2005. The positive trend in soil temperature-moisture relations was observed at monitoring sites in the Yakutsk area, regardless of vegetation and soil type. The increase in soil temperature appears to have started in response to the large amounts of snow that accumulated in the winter of 2004. Abnormally high pre-winter rainfall and snowfall in the following three years accelerated soil warming through the effects of greater latent heat of freezing and insulation from atmospheric cooling in winter. The consecutive positive anomalies of snow depth and rainfall, which occurred widely in the central and southern Lena River basin during this three-year period, increased soil moisture and appear to have altered the active-layer thermal properties, which likely induced widespread warming of the surface layer of permafrost in this region. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Development and application of topographic descriptors for conditional analysis of rainfallATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE LETTERS, Issue 3 2009Emma Jayne Sakamoto Ferranti Abstract Upland rainfall is changing but regional climate models (RCMs) are poor at simulating observed precipitation in such areas of complex topography. This paper presents a method of examining observed rainfall patterns and processes under different conditions of synoptic meteorology and local topography. Objective topographic descriptors are defined and used to distinguish the modification of rainfall by local topography from that due to different synoptic conditions and climate change. A case study examining winter rainfall in Cumbria is presented. The conditional analysis method can be used to test RCM outputs so that model parameterisation can be improved. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society [source] | ||||||||||