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Winter Precipitation (winter + precipitation)
Selected AbstractsA test of the relationship between seasonal rainfall and saguaro cacti branching patternsECOGRAPHY, Issue 4 2003Taly Dawn Drezner Reproductive output, as well as photosynthetically active radiation interception and CO2 uptake, increase as saguaro cacti Carnegiea gigantea (Engelm.) Britt. and Rose branch, and branching increases with increasing moisture. The Sonoran Desert experiences distinct summer and winter precipitation regimes that vary in both geography and scale. Many aspects of saguaro ecology are known to depend on the summer rains, which has resulted in an emphasis on summer rains in the literature. Similarly, branching studies have been limited geographically to areas that receive relatively high amounts of summer rainfall. These studies, therefore, attribute branching patterns to the summer (or possibly annual) rains, and conclusions reflect the summer precipitation bias. Environmental variability in space was explored in the present study to investigate saguaro branching patterns. I collected height and branching data in thirty saguaro populations across their American range. Stepwise regression was used to determine which climate, vegetation and soil variables best predict branching. Contrary to the literature, this study found that winter precipitation, particularly from January to April, was the best predictor of branching, not summer or annual rain. Surprisingly, the relationship between the summer monsoons (July and August precipitation) and branching was negative. This is likely due to the fact that summer and winter rainfall patterns are geographically distinct. Winter precipitation appears to play a key role in branching, and thus in seed production. This suggests that saguaros benefit from moisture during the winter, possibly utilizing cold-season rains for increasing their reproductive output through branching, and challenging the view that the summer rains dominate virtually every aspect of the saguaro life-cycle, and creating a more balanced view of saguaro ecology. [source] Snow cover in western Poland and macro-scale circulation conditionsINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 5 2002Ewa Bednorz Abstract The aim of the study was to find out the connection between the nature of winters in the western part of Poland (excluding the Sudety mountains) and the fluctuation in the atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic region determined by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. An attempt was made to establish the correlation between the NAO index and specific meteorological parameters in Pozna,. The strongest positive correlation was obtained for the mean winter temperature (December,March) and strong negative correlation was found for the number of days with snow cover. Winter precipitation in Pozna, was least associated with the NAO. The correlation coefficient was small and not significant. In the next stage of the study, the area of western Poland was examined; however, only one parameter, i.e. the number of days with snow cover, was taken into consideration. At each of 29 stations distributed in the study area the number of days with snow cover was proved to be strongly negatively correlated with the NAO index. Finally, the frequency of air flow directions was taken into consideration and their association with the NAO was examined. A strong negative correlation was obtained for the frequency of northeasterly and easterly air flow directions and a strong positive correlation was calculated for the frequency of westerly and northwesterly airflow directions. Such findings are consistent with the westerly flow of air masses during the positive phase and with the northerly and easterly flows during the negative phase. The results lead to the conclusion that the positive phase of the NAO causes mild and less snowy winters, whereas the negative phase increases the probability of severe and snowy winters in western Poland. Copyright © 2002 Royal Meteorological Society. [source] Dynamics of an introduced population of mouflon Ovis aries on the sub-Antarctic archipelago of KerguelenECOGRAPHY, Issue 3 2010Renaud Kaeuffer A commonly reported pattern in large herbivores is their propensity to irrupt and crash when colonizing new areas. However, the relative role of density-dependence, climate, and cohort effects on demographic rates in accounting for the irruptive dynamics of large herbivores remains unclear. Using a 37-yr time series of abundance in a mouflon Ovis aries population located on Haute Island, a sub-Antarctic island of Kerguelen, 1) we investigated if irruptive dynamics occurred and 2) we quantified the relative effects of density and climate on mouflon population dynamics. Being released in a new environment, we expected mouflon to show rapid growth and marked over-compensation. In support of this prediction, we found a two-phase dynamics, the first phase being characterised by an irruptive pattern best described by the , -Caughley model. Parameter estimates were rm=0.29±0.005(maximum growth rate), K=473±45 (carrying capacity) and S=2903±396 (surplus) mouflon. With a ,=3.18±0.69 our model also supported the hypothesis that density dependence is strongest at high density in large herbivores. The second phase was characterised by an unstable dynamics where growth rate was negatively affected by population abundance and winter precipitation. Climate, however, did not trigger population crashes and our model suggested that lagged density-dependence and over-grazing were the probable causes of mouflon irruptive dynamics. We compare our results with those of Soay sheep and discuss the possibility of a reversible alteration of the island carrying capacity after the initial over-grazing period. [source] A test of the relationship between seasonal rainfall and saguaro cacti branching patternsECOGRAPHY, Issue 4 2003Taly Dawn Drezner Reproductive output, as well as photosynthetically active radiation interception and CO2 uptake, increase as saguaro cacti Carnegiea gigantea (Engelm.) Britt. and Rose branch, and branching increases with increasing moisture. The Sonoran Desert experiences distinct summer and winter precipitation regimes that vary in both geography and scale. Many aspects of saguaro ecology are known to depend on the summer rains, which has resulted in an emphasis on summer rains in the literature. Similarly, branching studies have been limited geographically to areas that receive relatively high amounts of summer rainfall. These studies, therefore, attribute branching patterns to the summer (or possibly annual) rains, and conclusions reflect the summer precipitation bias. Environmental variability in space was explored in the present study to investigate saguaro branching patterns. I collected height and branching data in thirty saguaro populations across their American range. Stepwise regression was used to determine which climate, vegetation and soil variables best predict branching. Contrary to the literature, this study found that winter precipitation, particularly from January to April, was the best predictor of branching, not summer or annual rain. Surprisingly, the relationship between the summer monsoons (July and August precipitation) and branching was negative. This is likely due to the fact that summer and winter rainfall patterns are geographically distinct. Winter precipitation appears to play a key role in branching, and thus in seed production. This suggests that saguaros benefit from moisture during the winter, possibly utilizing cold-season rains for increasing their reproductive output through branching, and challenging the view that the summer rains dominate virtually every aspect of the saguaro life-cycle, and creating a more balanced view of saguaro ecology. [source] RESPONSE OF A MONTENEGRO GLACIER TO EXTREME SUMMER HEATWAVES IN 2003 AND 2007GEOGRAFISKA ANNALER SERIES A: PHYSICAL GEOGRAPHY, Issue 4 2008PHILIP. ABSTRACT. The Debeli Namet glacier in the Durmitor massif, Montenegro, is one of the lowest altitude glaciers (2050,2300 m) at this latitude (42,44°N) in the northern hemisphere. The glacier survives well below the climatological equilibrium line altitude because of substantial inputs from avalanching and windblown snow. The glacier survived two of the hottest summers on record in 2003 and 2007, although it experienced significant retreat. However, during the intervening years (2004,2006) the glacier increased in size and advanced, forming a new frontal moraine. This rapid advance was primarily in response to much cooler summer temperatures, close to or cooler than average, and a marked increase in winter precipitation. The rapid growth and decay of the Debeli Namet glacier in response to inter-annual climate variability highlights the sensitivity of small cirque glaciers to short-term climate change. [source] THE ,LITTLE ICE AGE': RE-EVALUATION OF AN EVOLVING CONCEPTGEOGRAFISKA ANNALER SERIES A: PHYSICAL GEOGRAPHY, Issue 1 2005JOHN A. MATTHEWS ABSTRACT. This review focuses on the development of the ,Little Ice Age' as a glaciological and climatic concept, and evaluates its current usefulness in the light of new data on the glacier and climatic variations of the last millennium and of the Holocene. ,Little Ice Age' glacierization occurred over about 650 years and can be defined most precisely in the European Alps (c. AD 1300,1950) when extended glaciers were larger than before or since. ,Little Ice Age' climate is defined as a shorter time interval of about 330 years (c. AD 1570,1900) when Northern Hemisphere summer temperatures (land areas north of 20°N) fell significantly below the AD 1961,1990 mean. This climatic definition overlaps the times when the Alpine glaciers attained their latest two highstands (AD 1650 and 1850). It is emphasized, however, that ,Little Ice Age' glacierization was highly dependent on winter precipitation and that ,Little Ice Age' climate was not simply a matter of summer temperatures. Both the glacier-centred and the climate-centred concepts necessarily encompass considerable spatial and temporal variability, which are investigated using maps of mean summer temperature variations over the Northern Hemisphere at 30-year intervals from AD 1571 to 1900. ,Little Ice Age'-type events occurred earlier in the Holocene as exemplified by at least seven glacier expansion episodes that have been identified in southern Norway. Such events provide a broader context and renewed relevance for the ,Little Ice Age', which may be viewed as a ,modern analogue' for the earlier events; and the likelihood that similar events will occur in the future has implications for climatic change in the twenty-first century. It is concluded that the concept of a ,Little Ice Age' will remain useful only by (1) continuing to incorporate the temporal and spatial complexities of glacier and climatic variations as they become better known, and (2) by reflecting improved understanding of the Earth-atmosphere-ocean system and its forcing factors through the interaction of palaeoclimatic reconstruction with climate modelling. [source] Importance of changing CO2, temperature, precipitation, and ozone on carbon and water cycles of an upland-oak forest: incorporating experimental results into model simulationsGLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 9 2005Paul J. Hanson Abstract Observed responses of upland-oak vegetation of the eastern deciduous hardwood forest to changing CO2, temperature, precipitation and tropospheric ozone (O3) were derived from field studies and interpreted with a stand-level model for an 11-year range of environmental variation upon which scenarios of future environmental change were imposed. Scenarios for the year 2100 included elevated [CO2] and [O3] (+385 ppm and +20 ppb, respectively), warming (+4°C), and increased winter precipitation (+20% November,March). Simulations were run with and without adjustments for experimentally observed physiological and biomass adjustments. Initial simplistic model runs for single-factor changes in CO2 and temperature predicted substantial increases (+191% or 508 g C m,2 yr,1) or decreases (,206% or ,549 g C m,2 yr,1), respectively, in mean annual net ecosystem carbon exchange (NEEa,266±23 g C m,2 yr,1 from 1993 to 2003). Conversely, single-factor changes in precipitation or O3 had comparatively small effects on NEEa (0% and ,35%, respectively). The combined influence of all four environmental changes yielded a 29% reduction in mean annual NEEa. These results suggested that future CO2 -induced enhancements of gross photosynthesis would be largely offset by temperature-induced increases in respiration, exacerbation of water deficits, and O3 -induced reductions in photosynthesis. However, when experimentally observed physiological adjustments were included in the simulations (e.g. acclimation of leaf respiration to warming), the combined influence of the year 2100 scenario resulted in a 20% increase in NEEa not a decrease. Consistent with the annual model's predictions, simulations with a forest succession model run for gradually changing conditions from 2000 to 2100 indicated an 11% increase in stand wood biomass in the future compared with current conditions. These model-based analyses identify critical areas of uncertainty for multivariate predictions of future ecosystem response, and underscore the importance of long term field experiments for the evaluation of acclimation and growth under complex environmental scenarios. [source] Analysis of snow cover variability and change in Québec, 1948,2005HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 14 2010Ross D. Brown Abstract The spatial and temporal characteristics of annual maximum snow water equivalent (SWEmax) and fall and spring snow cover duration (SCD) were analysed over Québec and adjacent area for snow seasons 1948/1949,2004/2005 using reconstructed daily snow depth and SWE. Snow cover variability in Québec was found to be significantly correlated with most of the major atmospheric circulation patterns affecting the climate of eastern North America but the influence was characterized by strong multidecadal-scale variability. The strongest and most consistent relationship was observed between the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and fall SCD variability over western Québec. El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was found to have a limited impact on Québec snow cover. Evidence was found for a shift in circulation over the study region around 1980 associated with an abrupt increase in sea level pressure (SLP) and decreases in winter precipitation, snow depth and SWE over much of southern Québec, as well as changes in the atmospheric patterns with significant links to snow cover variability. Trend analysis of the reconstructed snow cover over 1948,2005 provided evidence of a clear north,south gradient in SWEmax and spring SCD with significant local decreases over southern Québec and significant local increases over north-central Québec. The increase in SWEmax over northern Québec is consistent with proxy data (lake levels, tree growth forms, permafrost temperatures), with hemispheric-wide trends of increasing precipitation over higher latitudes, and with projections of global climate models (GCMs). Copyright © 2010 Her Majesty the Queen in right of Canada. Published by John Wiley & Sons. Ltd [source] Hydrology and water quality in two mountain basins of the northeastern US: assessing baseline conditions and effects of ski area development,,HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 12 2007Beverley Wemple Abstract Mountain regions throughout the world face intense development pressures associated with recreational and tourism uses. Despite these pressures, much of the research on bio-geophysical impacts of humans in mountain regions has focused on the effects of natural resource extraction. This paper describes findings from the first 3 years of a study examining high elevation watershed processes in a region undergoing alpine resort development. Our study is designed as a paired-watershed experiment. The Ranch Brook watershed (9·6 km2) is a relatively pristine, forested watershed and serves as the undeveloped ,control' basin. West Branch (11·7 km2) encompasses an existing alpine ski resort, with approximately 17% of the basin occupied by ski trails and impervious surfaces, and an additional 7% slated for clearing and development. Here, we report results for water years 2001,2003 of streamflow and water quality dynamics for these watersheds. Precipitation increases significantly with elevation in the watersheds, and winter precipitation represents 36,46% of annual precipitation. Artificial snowmaking from water within West Branch watershed currently augments annual precipitation by only 3,4%. Water yield in the developed basin exceeded that in the control by 18,36%. Suspended sediment yield was more than two and a half times greater and fluxes of all major solutes were higher in the developed basin. Our study is the first to document the effects of existing ski area development on hydrology and water quality in the northeastern US and will serve as an important baseline for evaluating the effects of planned resort expansion activities in this area. Published in 2007 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Statistical downscaling of daily precipitation from observed and modelled atmospheric fieldsHYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 8 2004Stephen P. Charles Abstract Statistical downscaling techniques have been developed to address the spatial scale disparity between the horizontal computational grids of general circulation models (GCMs), typically 300,500 km, and point-scale meteorological observations. This has been driven, predominantly, by the need to determine how enhanced greenhouse projections of future climate may impact at regional and local scales. As point-scale precipitation is a common input to hydrological models, there is a need for techniques that reproduce the characteristics of multi-site, daily gauge precipitation. This paper investigates the ability of the extended nonhomogeneous hidden Markov model (extended-NHMM) to reproduce observed interannual and interdecadal precipitation variability when driven by observed and modelled atmospheric fields. Previous studies have shown that the extended-NHMM can successfully reproduce the at-site and intersite statistics of daily gauge precipitation, such as the frequency characteristics of wet days, dry- and wet-spell length distributions, amount distributions, and intersite correlations in occurrence and amounts. Here, the extended-NHMM, as fitted to 1978,92 observed ,winter' (May,October) daily precipitation and atmospheric data for 30 rain gauge sites in southwest Western Australia, is driven by atmospheric predictor sets extracted from National Centers for Environmental Prediction,National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis data for 1958,98 and an atmospheric GCM hindcast run forced by observed 1955,91 sea-surface temperatures (SSTs). Downscaling from the reanalysis-derived predictors reproduces the 1958,98 interannual and interdecadal variability of winter precipitation. Downscaling from the SST-forced GCM hindcast only reproduces the precipitation probabilities of the recent 1978,91 period, with poor performance for earlier periods attributed to inadequacies in the forcing SST data. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] A multimodel assessment of future climatological droughts in the United Kingdom,INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 14 2009Jean-Philippe Vidal Abstract This paper presents a detailed assessment of future rainfall drought patterns over the United Kingdom. Previously developed bias-corrected high-resolution gridded precipitation time series are aggregated to the scale relevant for water resources management, in order to provide 21st-century time series for 183 hydrologic areas, as computed by six General Circulation Models (GCMs) under two emissions scenarios. The control run data are used as a ,learning time series' to compute the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) at four different time scales. SPI values for three 30-year future time slices are computed with respect to these learning time series in order to assess the changes in drought frequency. Multimodel results under the A2 scenario show a dramatic increase in the frequency of short-term extreme drought class for most of the country. A decrease of long-term droughts is expected in Scotland, due to the projected increase in winter precipitation. The analysis for two catchment case studies also showed that changes under the B2 scenario are generally consistent with those of the A2 scenario, with a reduced magnitude in changes. The overall increase with time in the spread of individual GCM results demonstrates the utility of multimodel statistics when assessing the uncertainty in future drought indices to be used in long-term water resources planning. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society [source] The North Atlantic Oscillation and European vegetation dynamicsINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 14 2008Célia Gouveia Abstract The relationship between vegetation greenness and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is assessed over Europe. The study covers the 21-year period from 1982 to 2002 and is based on monthly composites of the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Brightness Temperature from the Global Inventory Monitoring and Modelling System (GIMMS) as well as on monthly precipitation from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC). A systematic analysis is first performed of point correlation fields over the 21-year period between the winter NAO index and spring and summer NDVI, followed by an assessment of the vegetation response to precipitation and temperature conditions in winter, over two contrasting regions, namely the Iberian Peninsula and Northeastern Europe. Finally, the impact of NAO on vegetation dynamics over the two regions is evaluated by studying the corresponding annual cycles of NDVI and comparing their behaviour for years associated with opposite NAO phases. Over the Iberian Peninsula there is strong evidence that positive (negative) values of winter NAO induce low (high) vegetation activity in the following spring and summer seasons. This feature is mainly associated with the impact of NAO on winter precipitation, together with the strong dependence of spring and summer NDVI on water availability during the previous winter. Northeastern Europe shows a different behaviour, with positive (negative) values of winter NAO inducing high (low) values of NDVI in spring, but low (high) values of NDVI in summer. This behaviour mainly results from the strong impact of NAO on winter temperature, associated with the critical dependence of vegetation growth on the combined effect of warm conditions and water availability during the winter season. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Atmospheric large-scale dynamics during the 2004/2005 winter drought in portugalINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 5 2007J. Santos Abstract The unusually dry conditions during the 2004/2005 winter in Portugal led to the development of an extreme/severe drought episode throughout the country with major socioeconomic impacts. In fact, at some locations, this winter was the driest in at least the last 60 years. A K-means classification of days into a set of five weather regimes (WRs), relevant for winter precipitation in Portugal, reveals a large prevalence of the two driest weather regimes during the 2004/2005 winter. These two regimes are basically linked to either anticyclonic circulation or easterly winds over Portugal and their prevalence explains the significant precipitation deficit. Winter precipitation variability in Portugal is indeed skillfully represented by linear models where the predictors are the frequencies of occurrence (FO) of these weather regimes. The dominance of the ,dry phases' of the main coupled modes between winter precipitation in Portugal and the large-scale atmospheric circulation also supports the prevalence of the dry regimes and the corresponding lack of precipitation. The predominance of the dry regimes can be explained by a remarkably strong enhancement of the climate-mean North Atlantic ridge, manifested by dynamically coherent anomalies in the geopotential heights, vorticity and temperature fields over the North Atlantic. The persistence of a warm-core asymmetrical eddy over the North Atlantic, with a nearly barotropic equivalent structure, is a manifestation of this large-scale anomaly. The blocking of the westerlies and the consequent northward shift in the axis of maximum moisture transports over the North Atlantic was one of the most striking changes in the large-scale atmospheric flow. Consequently, the main track of the developing baroclinic disturbances was sufficiently distant from Portugal to hamper the development of rain-generating conditions. As these dynamical conditions are common to other reportedly dry winters, they effectively constitute a key factor for the occurrence of a precipitation deficit in Portugal. Copyright © 2006 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Shifting covariability of North American summer monsoon precipitation with antecedent winter precipitationINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 8 2006Gregory J. McCabe Abstract Previous research has suggested that a general inverse relation exists between winter precipitation in the southwestern United States (US) and summer monsoon precipitation. In addition, it has been suggested that this inverse relation between winter precipitation and the magnitude of the southwestern US monsoon breaks down under certain climatic conditions that override the regional winter/monsoon precipitation relations. Results from this new study indicate that the winter/monsoon precipitation relations do not break down, but rather shift location through time. The strength of winter/monsoon precipitation relations, as indexed by 20-year moving correlations between winter precipitation and monsoon precipitation, decreased in Arizona after about 1970, but increased in New Mexico. The changes in these correlations appear to be related to an eastward shift in the location of monsoon precipitation in the southwestern US. This eastward shift in monsoon precipitation and the changes in correlations with winter precipitation also appear to be related to an eastward shift in July/August atmospheric circulation over the southwestern US that resulted in increased monsoon precipitation in New Mexico. Results also indicate that decreases in sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central North Pacific Ocean also may be associated with the changes in correlations between winter and monsoon precipitation. Copyright © 2006 Royal Meteorological Society. [source] Evaluation of the North Atlantic SST forcing on the European and Northern African winter climateINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 2 2006Belén Rodríguez-Fonseca Abstract The 1960,1996 patterns of monthly anomalous winter precipitation in Europe and North Africa (ENA) and their connection with the North Atlantic SST are studied. A lag Singular Value Decomposition analysis has been applied to monthly SST and precipitation data to define the most influential Atlantic oceanic areas on the winter ENA rainfall. The results indicate a link between the subtropical North Atlantic SST and the winter precipitation anomalies in areas of the northern,southwestern Europe and northern Africa, since the preceding summer months. We also show that the SLP pattern connected with this subtropical oceanic area is not the NAO itself, and we explain this subtropical,extratropical connection through changes in the trade winds. The estimates of ENA winter precipitation anomalies, based on the previous summer SST, have been validated using a bootstrap analysis. Finally, we verify the reliability of this connection for the whole period from 1900 to 1996. Copyright © 2006 Royal Meteorological Society. [source] Weather regimes and their connection to the winter rainfall in PortugalINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 1 2005J.A. Santos Abstract Wintertime rainfall over Portugal is strongly coupled with the large-scale atmospheric flow in the Euro-Atlantic sector. A K -means cluster analysis, on the space spanned by a subset of the empirical orthogonal functions of the daily mean sea-level pressure fields, is performed aiming to isolate the weather regimes responsible for the interannual variability of the winter precipitation. Each daily circulation pattern is keyed to a set of five weather regimes (C, W, NAO,, NAO+ and E). The dynamical structure of each regime substantiates the statistical properties of the respective rainfall distribution and validates the clustering technique. The C regime is related to low-pressure systems over the North Atlantic that induce southwesterly and westerly moist winds over the country. The W regime is characterized by westerly disturbed weather associated with low-pressure systems mainly located over northern Europe. The NAO, regime is manifested by weak low-pressure systems near Portugal. The NAO+ regime corresponds to a well-developed Azores high with generally settled and dry weather conditions. Finally, the E regime is related to anomalous strong easterly winds and rather dry conditions. Although the variability in the frequencies of occurrence of the C and NAO, regimes is largely dominant in the interannual variability of the winter rainfall throughout Portugal, the C regime is particularly meaningful over northern Portugal and the NAO, regime acquires higher relevance over southern Portugal. The inclusion of the W regime improves the description of the variability over northern and central Portugal. Dry weather conditions prevail in both the NAO+ and E regimes, with hardly any exceptions. The occurrence of the NAO+ and the NAO, regimes is also strongly coupled with the North Atlantic oscillation. Copyright © 2005 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Precipitation characteristics of the Eurasian Arctic drainage systemINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 11 2003Mark C. Serreze Abstract This study examines characteristics of precipitation over the major watersheds of the Eurasian Arctic drainage system over the period 1960,92. In addition to the Ob, Yenisey and Lena (the three largest drainage systems), we examine the combined Kolyma,Indigirka in eastern Eurasia. Each basin exhibits approximately symmetric mean annual cycles of monthly total precipitation and daily event size, with winter minima and July maxima. These are strikingly similar to the annual cycles of total column water vapour (precipitable water), which fundamentally reflects the control on saturation vapour pressure by temperature. Effective precipitation mechanisms exist in all seasons. However, because of the long distance from strong moisture sources (continentality), precipitation tends to follow the seasonality in column water vapour. An effective contrast is presented for the Iceland sector. Here, the annual cycle of precipitation is tied not to the seasonality in column water vapour, but to the stronger precipitation-generating mechanisms in winter. Hence, the annual cycles of precipitation and column water vapour in this region oppose each other. Mean winter precipitation over the Eurasian watersheds is primarily driven by a modest convergence of water vapour. Whereas precipitation peaks in summer, the mean flux convergence exhibits a general minimum (negative in the Ob). Summer precipitation is hence primarily associated with surface evaporation. A strong role of convection is supported from consideration of static stability, the fairly weak spatial organization of precipitation totals and results from prior studies. On daily time scales, the largest basin-averaged precipitation events, for both summer and winter, are allied with synoptic-scale forcing. This is seen in relationships with cyclone frequency, and patterns of 500 hPa height, vertical motion and the 700 hPa vapour flux. The relative frequency of four 500 hPa synoptic types captures the basic time series structures of precipitation. Copyright © 2003 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Long-term snow climate trends of the Swiss Alps (1931,99)INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 7 2003Martin Laternser Abstract The mean snow depth, the duration of continuous snow cover and the number of snowfall days in the Swiss Alps all show very similar trends during the observation period 1931,99: a gradual increase until the early 1980s (with insignificant interruptions during the late 1950s and early 1970s) followed by a statistically significant decrease towards the end of the century. Regional and altitudinal variations are large; high altitudes show only slight changes, and the trends become more pronounced at mid and low altitudes. At any particular time the southern part of the Alps often has different conditions than the north. Shorter snow duration is mainly caused by earlier snow melting in spring than by later first snowfalls in autumn. Trends for heavy snowfall events are somewhat different: at elevations above 1300 m a.s.l. a very weak increasing trend towards heavier snowfalls has persisted since the 1960s, and only low altitudes below 650 m a.s.l. show a marked drop since the early 1980s, indicating that heavy winter precipitation to an increasing degree falls in the form of rain instead of snow. A literature review confirms that, throughout the temperate and subpolar Northern Hemisphere, a similar general pattern of temporal snow variations occurred during the 20th century. Copyright © 2003 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Daily dataset of 20th-century surface air temperature and precipitation series for the European Climate AssessmentINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 12 2002A. M. G. Klein Tank Abstract We present a dataset of daily resolution climatic time series that has been compiled for the European Climate Assessment (ECA). As of December 2001, this ECA dataset comprises 199 series of minimum, maximum and/or daily mean temperature and 195 series of daily precipitation amount observed at meteorological stations in Europe and the Middle East. Almost all series cover the standard normal period 1961,90, and about 50% extends back to at least 1925. Part of the dataset (90%) is made available for climate research on CDROM and through the Internet (at http://www.knmi.nl/samenw/eca). A comparison of the ECA dataset with existing gridded datasets, having monthly resolution, shows that correlation coefficients between ECA stations and nearest land grid boxes between 1946 and 1999 are higher than 0.8 for 93% of the temperature series and for 51% of the precipitation series. The overall trends in the ECA dataset are of comparable magnitude to those in the gridded datasets. The potential of the ECA dataset for climate studies is demonstrated in two examples. In the first example, it is shown that the winter (October,March) warming in Europe in the 1976,99 period is accompanied by a positive trend in the number of warm-spell days at most stations, but not by a negative trend in the number of cold-spell days. Instead, the number of cold-spell days increases over Europe. In the second example, it is shown for winter precipitation between 1946 and 1999 that positive trends in the mean amount per wet day prevail in areas that are getting drier and wetter. Because of its daily resolution, the ECA dataset enables a variety of empirical climate studies, including detailed analyses of changes in the occurrence of extremes in relation to changes in mean temperature and total precipitation. Copyright © 2002 Royal Meteorological Society. [source] Mesoscale precipitation variability in the region of the European Alps during the 20th centuryINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 9 2002Jürg Schmidli Abstract The purpose of this study is to construct and evaluate a new gridded analysis of precipitation that covers the entire region of the European Alps (43.2,48.8 ° N, 3.2,16.2 ° E), resolves the most prominent mesoscale variations (grid spacing 25 km) and extends with a monthly time-resolution over most of the 20th century (1901,90). The analysis is based on a reconstruction using the reduced-space optimal interpolation technique. It combines data from a high-resolution network over a restricted time period (1971,90) with homogeneous centennial records from a sparse sample of stations. The reconstructed fields account for 78% of the total variance in a cross-validation with independent data. The explained variance for individual grid points varies between 60 and 95%, with lower skills over the southern and western parts of the domain. For averages over 100 × 100 km2 subdomains, the explained variance increases to 90,99%. Comparison of the reconstruction with the CRU05 global analysis reveals good agreement with respect to the interannual variations of large subdomain averages (10 000,50 000 km2), some differences in decadal variations, especially for recent decades, and physically more plausible spatial patterns in the present analysis. The new dataset is exploited to depict 20th century precipitation variations and their correlations with the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO). A linear trend analysis (1901,90) reveals an increase of winter precipitation by 20,30% per 100 years in the western part of the Alps, and a decrease of autumn precipitation by 20,40% to the south of the main ridge. Correlations with the NAO index (NAOI) are weak and highly intermittent to the north and weak and more robust to the south of the main Alpine crest, indicating that changes in the NAOI in recent decades are not of primary importance in explaining observed precipitation changes. Copyright © 2002 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Precipitation and atmospheric circulation patterns at mid-latitudes of AsiaINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 5 2001Elena M. Aizen Abstract Analyses of the coupling between large-scale atmospheric patterns and modifications of regional precipitation regimes at seasonal and annual time scales in different terrain of mid-latitudes in Asia, including western Siberia, Tien Shan and Pamir mountains, and plains of middle Asia and Japanese Islands, were examined based on data from 57 and 88 hydro-climatic stations with 100 and 60 year records, respectively. For the past 100 years, a positive trend in precipitation was revealed in western Siberia, northern regions of Tien Shan and Japanese Islands. North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and West Pacific Oscillation (WPO) indices have inverse associations, with average amount of precipitation in western Siberia and in mountains and plains of middle Asia, and positive correlation in central and western regions of Japanese Islands. The Pacific North American (PNA) index is positively correlated with annual precipitation over most of the Japanese Islands. Northern Asian (NA) positive anomalies lead to decrease in winter precipitation in the western and eastern regions of Japanese Islands. We did not find significant impact of PNA or NA on precipitation in middle Asia. We suggest that during the last century, impacts of the western jet stream increased in the northern regions of Tien Shan and Japanese Islands, and weakened in the eastern Japanese Islands. There is a suggestion that conditions are more favourable for precipitation development over continental regions of Asia when the Siberian High is positioned further to the east than further to the west. During dominant development of a zonal atmospheric pattern, the annual and seasonal precipitation decreased over most regions in continental Asia and central Japan. Copyright © 2001 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Climate change scenarios and models yield conflicting predictions about the future risk of an invasive species in North AmericaAGRICULTURAL AND FOREST ENTOMOLOGY, Issue 3 2010Anna M. Mika 1The pea leafminer Liriomyza huidobrensis (Blanchard) (Diptera: Agromyzidae) is an invasive species in North America and a serious economic pest on a wide variety of crops. We developed a bioclimatic envelope model (BEM) for this species and examined the envelope's potential location in North America under various future climates. 2We compared the future bioclimatic envelopes for L. huidobrensis using either simple scenarios comprising uniform changes in temperature/precipitation or climate projections from general circulation models (GCMs). Our simple scenarios were: (i) an increase of 0.1°C per degree in latitude with a 20% increase in summer precipitation and a 20% decrease in winter precipitation and (ii) an overall increase of 3°C everywhere, also with the same changes in precipitation. For GCM-modelled climate change, we used the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis GCM (CGCM2) and the Hadley Centre climate model (HadCM3), each in combination with two scenarios from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (A2 and B2). 3The BEM results using the simple scenarios were more similar to each other than to the results obtained using GCM projections. The results were also qualitatively different (i.e. spatially different and divergent) depending on which GCM-scenario combination was used. 4This modelling exercise illustrates that: (i) results using first approximation simple climate change scenarios can give predictions very different from those that use GCM-modelled climate projections (comprising a result that has worrying implications for empirical impact research) and that (ii) different GCM-models using the same scenario can give very different results (implying strong model dependency in projected biological impacts). [source] Effect of Snow Cover Conditions on the Hydrologic Regime: Case Study in a Pluvial-Nival Watershed, Japan,JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN WATER RESOURCES ASSOCIATION, Issue 4 2008Andrew C. Whitaker Abstract:, Hydrologic monitoring in a small forested and mountainous headwater basin in Niigata Prefecture has been undertaken since 2000. An important characteristic of the basin is that the hydrologic regime contains pluvial elements year-round, including rain-on-snow, in addition to spring snowmelt. We evaluated the effect of different snow cover conditions on the hydrologic regime by analyzing observed data in conjunction with model simulations of the snowpack. A degree-day snow model is presented and applied to the study basin to enable estimation of the basin average snow water equivalent using air temperature at three representative elevations. Analysis of hydrological time series data and master recession curves showed that flow during the snowmelt season was generated by a combination of ground water flow having a recession constant of 0.018/day and diurnal melt water flow having a recession constant of 0.015/hour. Daily flows during the winter/snowmelt season showed greater persistence than daily flows during the warm season. The seasonal water balance indicated that the ratio of runoff to precipitation during the cold season (December to May) was about 90% every year. Seasonal snowpack plays an important role in defining the hydrologic regime, with winter precipitation and snowmelt runoff contributing about 65% of the annual runoff. The timing of the snowmelt season, indicated by the date of occurrence of the first significant snowmelt event, was correlated with the occurrence of low flow events. Model simulations showed that basin average snow water equivalent reached a peak around mid-February to mid-March, although further validation of the model is required at high elevation sites. [source] Changing climate and historic-woodland structure interact to control species diversity of the ,Lobarion' epiphyte community in ScotlandJOURNAL OF VEGETATION SCIENCE, Issue 5 2007Christopher J. Ellis Abstract Question: How will changing climate and habitat structure interact to control the species diversity of lichen epiphytes? Location: Scotland. Method: Species richness (=diversity) of the epiphyte lichen community known as Lobarion (named after Lobaria pulmonaria) was quantified for 94 Populus tremula stands across Scotland, and compared in a predictive model to seven climate variables and eight measures of woodland structure. An optimum model was selected and used to project Lobarion diversity over the geographic range of the study area, based on IPCC climate change scenarios and hypothetical shifts in woodland structure. Results: Species diversity of the Lobarion community was best explained by three climate variables: (1) average annual temperature; (2) autumn and winter precipitation; in combination with (3) historic-woodland extent. Projections indicate a positive effect of predicted climate change on Lobarion diversity, consistent with the physiological traits of cyanobac-terial lichens comprising the Lobarion. However, the general response to climate is modified significantly by the effect on diversity of historic-woodland extent. Conclusions: Historic-woodland extent may exert an important control over local climate, as well as impacting upon the metapopulation dynamics of species in the Lobarion. In particular, a temporal delay in the response of Lobarion species to changed woodland structure is critical to our understanding of future climate change effects. Future Lobarion diversity (e.g. in the 2050s) may depend upon the interaction of contemporary climate (e.g. 2050s climate) and historic habitat structure (e.g. 1950s woodland extent). This is supported by previous observations for an extinction debt amongst lichen epiphytes, but suggests an extension of simple climate-response models is necessary, before their wider application to lichen epiphyte diversity. [source] Probability distributions, vulnerability and sensitivity in Fagus crenata forests following predicted climate changes in JapanJOURNAL OF VEGETATION SCIENCE, Issue 5 2004Tetsuya Matsui Question: How much is the probability distribution of Fagus crenata forests predicted to change under a climate change scenario by the 2090s, and what are the potential impacts on these forests? What are the main factors inducing such changes? Location: The major islands of Japan. Methods: A predictive distribution model was developed with four climatic factors (summer precipitation, PRS; winter precipitation, PRW; minimum temperature of the coldest month, TMC; and warmth index, WI) and five non-climatic factors (topography, surface geology, soil, slope aspect and inclination). A climate change scenario was applied to the model. Results: Areas with high probability (> 0.5) were predicted to decrease by 91%, retreating from the southwest, shrinking in central regions, and expanding northeastwards beyond their current northern limits. A vulnerability index (the reciprocal of the predicted probability) suggests that Kyushu, Shikoku, the Pacific Ocean side of Honshu and southwest Hokkaido will have high numbers of many vulnerable F. crenata forests. The forests with high negative sensitivity indices (the difference between simulated probabilities of occurrence under current and predicted climates) mainly occur in southwest Hokkaido and the Sea of Japan side of northern Honshu. Conclusion: F. crenata forest distributions may retreat from some islands due to a high WI. The predicted northeastward shift in northern Hokkaido is associated with increased TMC and PRS. High vulnerability and negative sensitivity of the forests in southern Hokkaido are due to increased WI. [source] Climate mediated exogenous forcing and synchrony in populations of the oak aphid in the UKOIKOS, Issue 2 2009Sergio A. Estay Contemporary population dynamics theory suggests that animal fluctuations in nature are the result of the combined forces of intrinsic and exogenous factors. Weather is the iconic example of an exogenous force. The common approach for analyzing the relationship between population size and climatic variables is by simple correlation or using the climate as an additive covariable in statistical models. Here, we evaluated different functional forms in which climatic variables could influence population dynamics of the oak aphid Tuberculatus annulatus both in each locality and in relation to synchrony between localities. Results indicate that in at least four of eight aphid populations, climate influences population dynamics by modifying the carrying capacity of the system (lateral effect mediated by winter precipitation). Additionally, path analysis showed that synchrony in population dynamics is highly correlated with synchrony in winter precipitation regime, and the spatial scale of both processes is similar, which suggests that this is an example of the Moran effect. Our results show the key effects of precipitation on intra and inter population processes of this aphid. The methods used, mixing population dynamics modelling and test of synchrony, allowed us to connect the direct and indirect effects of exogenous variables into each population with patterns of synchrony inter populations. [source] Radial growth responses to gap creation in large, old Sequoiadendron giganteumAPPLIED VEGETATION SCIENCE, Issue 4 2010Robert A. York Abstract Questions: Do large, old Sequoiadondron giganteum trees respond to the creation of adjacent canopy gaps? Do other co-occurring tree species and younger S. giganteum adjacent to gaps also respond? What are the likely factors affecting growth responses? Location: Mixed-conifer forests of the southern Sierra Nevada, California, USA. Methods: We measured the growth response of large, old S. giganteum trees (mean DBH=164 cm; ages estimated >1000 yr) to gap creation by coring trees and comparing growth after gap creation to growth before gap creation. We also measured young Abies concolor, Pinus lambertiana, and young S. giganteum. Gap-adjacent trees were compared with non-adjacent reference trees. Tree rings were analysed for carbon isotope discrimination and for longer-term growth trend correlations with climate. Results: Following gap creation gap-adjacent old S. giganteum grew more than reference trees. Abies concolor trees also exhibited a growth response to gap creation. No response was detected for young S. giganteum or P. lambertiana, although detection power was lower for these groups. There was no difference in carbon isotope discrimination response to gap creation between gap-adjacent and reference trees for old S. giganteum and radial growth was positively correlated with winter precipitation, but not growing season temperature. Conclusion: It is unclear what caused the growth release in old S. giganteum trees, although liberation of below-ground resources following removal of competing vegetation appears to be a significant contributor. Sequoiadondron giganteum, the third-longest lived and the largest of all species, remains sensitive to local environmental changes even after canopy emergence. Management activities that reduce vegetation surrounding individual specimen trees can be expected to result in increased vigor of even these very old and large trees. [source] Short-term propagation of rainfall perturbations on terrestrial ecosystems in central CaliforniaAPPLIED VEGETATION SCIENCE, Issue 2 2010Mónica García Abstract Question: Does vegetation buffer or amplify rainfall perturbations, and is it possible to forecast rainfall using mesoscale climatic signals? Location: Central California (USA). Methods: The risk of dry or wet rainfall events was evaluated using conditional probabilities of rainfall depending on El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. The propagation of rainfall perturbations on vegetation was calculated using cross-correlations between monthly seasonally adjusted (SA) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), and SA antecedent rainfall at different time-scales. Results: In this region, El Niño events are associated with higher than normal winter precipitation (probability of 73%). Opposite but more predictable effects are found for La Niña events (89% probability of dry events). Chaparral and evergreen forests showed the longest persistence of rainfall effects (0-8 months). Grasslands and wetlands showed low persistence (0-2 months), with wetlands dominated by non-stationary patterns. Within the region, the NDVI spatial patterns associated with higher (lower) rainfall are homogeneous (heterogeneous), with the exception of evergreen forests. Conclusions: Knowledge of the time-scale of lagged effects of the non-seasonal component of rainfall on vegetation greenness, and the risk of winter rainfall anomalies lays the foundation for developing a forecasting model for vegetation greenness. Our results also suggest greater competitive advantage for perennial vegetation in response to potential rainfall increases in the region associated with climate change predictions, provided that the soil allows storing extra rainfall. [source] | ||||||||||||||||