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Water Managers (water + managers)
Selected AbstractsApplication of fuzzy logic to forecast seasonal runoffHYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 18 2003C. Mahabir Abstract Each spring in Alberta, Canada, the potential snowmelt runoff is forecast for several basins to assess the water supply situation. Water managers need this forecast to plan water allocations for the following summer season. The Lodge Creek and Middle Creek basins, located in southeastern Alberta, are two basins that require this type of late winter forecast of potential spring runoff. Historically, the forecast has been based upon a combination of regression equations. These results are then interpreted by a forecaster and are modified based on the forecaster's heuristic knowledge of the basin. Unfortunately, this approach has had limited success in the past, in terms of the accuracy of these forecasts, and consequently an alternative methodology is needed. In this study, the applicability of fuzzy logic modelling techniques for forecasting water supply was investigated. Fuzzy logic has been applied successfully in several fields where the relationship between cause and effect (variable and results) are vague. Fuzzy variables were used to organize knowledge that is expressed ,linguistically' into a formal analysis. For example, ,high snowpack', ,average snowpack' and ,low snowpack' became variables. By applying fuzzy logic, a water supply forecast was created that classified potential runoff into three forecast zones: ,low', ,average' and ,high'. Spring runoff forecasts from the fuzzy expert systems were found to be considerably more reliable than the regression models in forecasting the appropriate runoff zone, especially in terms of identifying low or average runoff years. Based on the modelling results in these two basins, it is concluded that fuzzy logic has a promising potential for providing reliable water supply forecasts. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Identification of cyanobacteria and their toxigenicity in environmental samples by rapid molecular analysisENVIRONMENTAL TOXICOLOGY, Issue 6 2001Judith A. Baker Abstract We report molecular analyses which identify cyanobacterial strains present in environmental samples. These analyses do not require the isolation and culture of strains. Identification of cyanobacteria used the polymerase chain reaction (PCR), based on the phycocyanin operon. Differentiation was either by restriction endonuclease digestion (restriction fragment length polymorphisms) or sequencing of the PCR products. Identification was based on sequence homology of the intergenic spacer region (IGS) between the ,- and ,-phycocyanin subunits (PC-IGS) with database records. We have found that the length and sequence of the PC-IGS is capable of predicting the genus accurately, but not the species. Toxigenicity was determined with oligonucleotide probes for key steps in the microcystin toxin synthesis pathway. We have shown that it is possible to easily and routinely obtain PCR amplification products and differentiate the strains in bloom samples. The methods can detect even minor components in bloom samples, which may not be apparent on microscopic examination. Genetic probes for microcystin toxigenicity are effective on environmental samples, eliminating the need for isolation and culture of the organisms. The use of a suite of tests described here will allow water managers to determine the presence and the type of cyanobacteria and their microcystin toxigenicity. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Environ Toxicol 16: 472,482, 2001 [source] Exposure modeling on a river basin scale in support of risk assessment for chemicals in european river basinsINTEGRATED ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT, Issue 1 2009Jos van Gils Abstract Following the 2000 European Water Framework Directive and recent insights into sediment management on a river basin scale, we discuss in this paper an exposure model aiming to support a risk assessment for chemicals on a basin-wide scale. It establishes spatial relations between causes (pollution sources) and effects (ecological risk), taking into account the geometry, hydrology, and fine sediment dynamics of European river basins. The model, called EXPOBASIN, explicitly takes into account the interaction of chemicals with fine sediment particles, which is important for many policy-relevant chemicals, such as trace metals and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, and it addresses the potential release of historically polluted sediments as a result of extreme floods, which is a major concern in different European river basins. Bioavailability and bioaccumulation are included in the assessment. As a result, the exposure can be quantified not only in terms of water concentrations, but also in terms of sediment concentrations and concentrations in biota. The primary question to be answered by EXPOBASIN is how chemicals, pollution sources, or both rank quantitatively and objectively on a basin-wide scale. Near the end of 2009, the tool will become available to all European water managers and their technical advisors, as a result of the European Union 6th Framework Programme project MODELKEY The calibration and validation of EXPOBASIN has only just started and will be completed in 2008/2009. Applications to 3 case study areas are planned in this respect. This paper presents the key building blocks of EXPOBASIN and shows some sample results illustrating the raking of pollution sources and chemicals. At the end of the paper, some perspectives for future developments are outlined. [source] Effects of the North Atlantic oscillation on the probability for climatic categories of local monthly rainfall in southern SpainINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 4 2003D. Muñoz-Díaz Abstract In many regions of the world, planning agricultural and water management activities is usually done based on probabilities for seasonal or monthly rainfall, for specified intervals of values. These intervals of rainfall amounts are commonly grouped into three categories: drought, normal rainfall, and abundant rainfall. Changes in the probabilities of occurrence of rainfall amounts within these climatic rainfall categories will influence the decisions that farmers and water managers will take. This research explores the changes produced by the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) on the probability that local monthly rainfall takes in the southern Iberian Peninsula. The evolution of the NAO was divided into three phases: negative NAO, ,normal' NAO, and positive NAO, and local rainfall series were divided into three groups, corresponding to each NAO phase. The resulting empirical distribution functions were analysed and modelled by Gamma distributions. The results allow one to estimate the change in the probabilities of wet and dry months when a change in NAO phase is produced. The main result of this work is that changes in the probability of occurrence of climate categories of rainfall are more complex than only an increase of rainfall amount during the negative NAO phase and a decrease during the positive NAO phase. In fact, a certain asymmetry is detected in January, with more extremes linked to the negative NAO phase. Copyright © 2003 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Current Issues in the Economics of Groundwater Resource ManagementJOURNAL OF ECONOMIC SURVEYS, Issue 5 2004Phoebe Koundouri Abstract., The issue of groundwater management remains a practical concern in many regions throughout the world, while water managers continue to grapple with the question of how to manage this resource. In this article, we attempt to bring the most advanced and appropriate tools to bear on the issue of resource allocation involving groundwater. Our objective is to demonstrate the state of the art in the literature on ways to think about this complex resource and to deal with the important economic issues emanating from its complexity. We present the conceptual framework within which economists examine the elements interacting in the management of groundwater resources, indicate why the role of the market is limited with respect to the price of this very complex resource, and point to the mechanisms that can pull competitive groundwater price and quality-graded quantity of groundwater in line with their equilibrium levels. In particular, we critically review economic models of groundwater use, examine the potential for groundwater management, discuss the difficulties encountered in the estimation of the relevant control variables of such models, and identify the advantages and limitations of the instruments devised for the efficient use (allocation) of this resource. Finally, we argue that devised regulatory schemes usually ignore the information and knowledge needed for their implementation, and we suggest a core of conditions necessary for successful groundwater management reforms. [source] Models, Assumptions, and Stakeholders: Planning for Water Supply Variability in the Colorado River Basin,JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN WATER RESOURCES ASSOCIATION, Issue 2 2008Dustin Garrick Abstract:, Declining reservoir storage has raised the specter of the first water shortage on the Lower Colorado River since the completion of Glen Canyon and Hoover Dams. This focusing event spurred modeling efforts to frame alternatives for managing the reservoir system during prolonged droughts. This paper addresses the management challenges that arise when using modeling tools to manage water scarcity under variable hydroclimatology, shifting use patterns, and institutional complexity. Assumptions specified in modeling simulations are an integral feature of public processes. The policymaking and management implications of assumptions are examined by analyzing four interacting sources of physical and institutional uncertainty: inflow (runoff), depletion (water use), operating rules, and initial reservoir conditions. A review of planning documents and model reports generated during two recent processes to plan for surplus and shortage in the Colorado River demonstrates that modeling tools become useful to stakeholders by clarifying the impacts of modeling assumptions at several temporal and spatial scales. A high reservoir storage-to-runoff ratio elevates the importance of assumptions regarding initial reservoir conditions over the three-year outlook used to assess the likelihood of reaching surplus and shortage triggers. An ensemble of initial condition predictions can provide more robust initial conditions estimates. This paper concludes that water managers require model outputs that encompass a full range of future potential outcomes, including best and worst cases. Further research into methods of representing and communicating about hydrologic and institutional uncertainty in model outputs will help water managers and other stakeholders to assess tradeoffs when planning for water supply variability. [source] Aims, challenges and progress of the Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Experiment (HEPEX) following the third HEPEX workshop held in Stresa 27 to 29 June 2007ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE LETTERS, Issue 2 2008Jutta Thielen Abstract Since several years, users of weather forecasts have begun to realize the benefit of quantifying the uncertainty associated with forecasts rather than relying on single value forecasts. At the same time, hydrologists and water managers have begun to explore the potential benefit of ensemble prediction systems (EPS) for hydrological applications. The Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction Experiment (HEPEX) is an international project that aims to foster the development of probabilistic hydrological forecasting and corresponding decision making tools. Since 2004, HEPEX has provided discussion opportunities for hydrological and meteorological scientists involved in the development, testing, and operational management of forecasting systems, and end users. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society [source] | |||||||||||||