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Voting Behavior (voting + behavior)
Selected AbstractsIndecision Theory: Weight of Evidence and Voting BehaviorJOURNAL OF PUBLIC ECONOMIC THEORY, Issue 3 2006PAOLO GHIRARDATO In this paper, we show how to incorporate weight of evidence, or ambiguity, into a model of voting behavior. We do so in the context of the turnout decision of instrumentally rational voters who differ in their perception of the ambiguity of the candidates' policy positions. Ambiguity is reflected by the fact that the voter's beliefs are given by a set of probabilities, each of which represents in the voter's mind a different possible scenario. We show that a voter who is averse to ambiguity considers abstention strictly optimal when the candidates' policy positions are both ambiguous and they are "ambiguity complements." Abstaining is preferred since it is tantamount to mixing the prospects embodied by the two candidates, thus enabling the voter to "hedge" the candidates' ambiguity. [source] Deus Ex Machina: The Influence of Polling Place on Voting BehaviorPOLITICAL PSYCHOLOGY, Issue 2 2010Abraham M. Rutchick Voting is perceived as free and rational. Citizens make whatever choices they wish, shielded from external influences by the privacy of the voting booth. The current paper, however, suggests that a subtle source of influence,polling places themselves,can impact voting behavior. In two elections, people voting in churches were more likely to support a conservative candidate and a ban on same-sex marriage, but not the restriction of eminent domain. A field experiment found that people completing questionnaires in a chapel awarded less money (relative to people in a secular building) to insurance claimants seeking compensation for abortion pills, but not to worker's compensation claimants. A laboratory experiment found that people subliminally exposed to ecclesiastical images awarded less money (relative to people exposed to control images) to abortion pill claimants, but not to worker's compensation claimants. Exposure to ecclesiastical images affected only Christians; non-Christians' awards were unaffected by the prime. These findings show that polling locations can exert a powerful and precise influence on political attitudes and decision making. [source] Transition of Adolescent Political Action Orientations to Voting Behavior in Early Adulthood in View of a Social-Cognitive Action Theory Model of PersonalityPOLITICAL PSYCHOLOGY, Issue 2 2000Günter Krampen The political activity and voting behavior of 136 young German adults in 1994 were predicted by their political action orientations measured 7 years before. Respondents belonging to cohorts born in 1971, 1972, and 1973 were surveyed in 1987, 1988, and 1994. The questionnaires measured variables relevant to the social-cognitive action theory model of personality: self-concept of political competence, beliefs about political locus of control, political knowledge, trust in politics, satisfaction with politics, and political activity in everyday life. The results are interpreted with respect to the correlative and absolute stability versus plasticity of the variables from 1987 to 1994, as well as the predictive value of the action theory personality variables for political activities and for voting behavior measured 7 years later. Longitudinal results indicate a high predictive value of self-concept of political competence and political knowledge for political activity and voting in early adulthood. Because only these two personality variables showed relatively high positional stability coefficients from adolescence to early adulthood, the discussion refers to the necessity of early developmental interventions to prevent extreme types of politically uninterested and passive adults. Therefore, the social-cognitive action theory personality model of political participation is extended to a social-cognitive action theory personality model of political socialization in the life span. [source] Signaling and Election Motivations in a Voting Model with Common Values and Responsive CandidatesECONOMETRICA, Issue 4 2003Ronny Razin In this paper we focus on strategic voting behavior when both an election and a signaling motivation affect voters' behavior. We analyze a model of elections with two candidates competing on a one-dimensional policy space. Voters are privately and imperfectly informed about a common shock affecting the electorate's preferences. Candidates are assumed to choose policy in response to information gleaned from election results and according to exogenous factors that may lead to polarization in candidates' policy choices. We analyze a subset of symmetric equilibria in which strategies are symmetric to candidates' names and private signals (CSS equilibria). We show that signaling and election motivations pull voters to vote in different directions. We provide conditions that show the relation between the amount of information aggregated in the election and the motivation that influences voting behavior the most. Finally, we show that when candidates are responsive and polarized, all CSS equilibria are inefficient in the limit. [source] RATIONAL PARTISAN THEORY, UNCERTAINTY, AND SPATIAL VOTING: EVIDENCE FOR THE BANK OF ENGLAND'S MPCECONOMICS & POLITICS, Issue 2 2010ARNAB BHATTACHARJEE The transparency and openness of the monetary policy-making process at the Bank of England has provided very detailed information on both the decisions of individual members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) and the information on which they are based. In this paper, we consider this decision-making process in the context of a model in which inflation forecast targeting is used, but there is heterogeneity among the members of the committee. We find that rational partisan theory can explain spatial voting behavior under forecast uncertainty about the output gap. Internally generated forecasts of output and market-generated expectations of medium-term inflation provide the best description of discrete changes in interest rates, in combination with uncertainty in the macroeconomic environment. There is also a role for developments in asset, housing and labor markets. Further, spatial voting patterns clearly differentiate between internally and externally apzpointed members of the MPC. The results have important implications for committee design and the conduct of monetary policy. [source] Exploring the Attitudinal Structure of PartisanshipJOURNAL OF APPLIED SOCIAL PSYCHOLOGY, Issue 9 2010Douglas D. Roscoe This study examined the structure of attitudes toward the political party an individual primarily identifies with and attitudes toward the other party with an emphasis on differentiating between the cognitive and affective components. Participants responded to a telephone survey that included measures of party identification, partisan attitudes, political information involvement activities, and voting behavior. Results indicated attitudes toward the parties were a function of both cognitive and affective components, although strong partisans had an attitudinal structure characterized as having a stronger cognitive component. Strong partisans were more polarized in their attitudes across parties. In addition, individuals with more cognitive-affective ambivalence toward their own parties were less likely to vote, and their votes were less likely to be along party lines. [source] Activism, Ideology, and Federalism: Judicial Behavior in Constitutional Challenges Before the Rehnquist Court, 1986,2000JOURNAL OF EMPIRICAL LEGAL STUDIES, Issue 2 2006Rorie Spill Solberg In this study, we evaluate the individual voting behavior of the justices on the Rehnquist Court in cases raising constitutional challenges to federal, state, and local legislation. Using activism, federalism, and ideology as our guiding principles, we evaluate the extent to which the justices' voting behavior is consistent with the conventional wisdom that conservatives are more restraintist and more likely to protect states' rights in conformity with Chief Justice Rehnquist's focus on federalism. Although we find that there is some correlation between judicial ideology and activism, with liberals more activist than conservatives in general, we also find that the conservative wing of the Rehnquist Court is also largely guided by its own ideological reaction to the substantive policy embodied in the laws at issue. Thus, conservative justices as well as liberals are likely to strike down state laws when those laws fail to conform to the ideological preferences. This result underscores the importance of the attitudinal model of judicial behavior as an explanation of voting patterns on the Court, regardless of the justices' rhetoric in favor of judicial restraint or states' rights. [source] Leadership quality and follower affect: A study of U.S. presidential candidatesJOURNAL OF LEADERSHIP STUDIES, Issue 4 2008M. David Albritton Using the tripartite model of attitude structure as a conceptual basis, this article investigates voter attitudes toward presidential candidates, including cognitive and affective assessments of these leaders as well as behavioral intentions and voting behavior. Data collected from the seven most recent U.S. presidential elections were used to compare Democratic and Republican Party candidates who were successful in securing votes to those who were unsuccessful. Here, follower perceptions of leader intelligence, feelings of pride and hope, as well as feelings of fear and anger were found to be statistically different between the two groups. Additionally, regression analysis using follower assessments of candidates' leadership quality, as dependent upon certain perceptual traits of that leader, are presented. Candidates perceived to be higher in intelligence, considered to possess stronger degrees of inspirational quality, and judged more "likeable," in terms of generating stronger degrees of positive follower affect and lower degrees of negative follower affect, are considered better quality leaders. Followers' perceptions of these traits are found to be key predictors of whether that follower will consider a leader to be of high quality. [source] Deus Ex Machina: The Influence of Polling Place on Voting BehaviorPOLITICAL PSYCHOLOGY, Issue 2 2010Abraham M. Rutchick Voting is perceived as free and rational. Citizens make whatever choices they wish, shielded from external influences by the privacy of the voting booth. The current paper, however, suggests that a subtle source of influence,polling places themselves,can impact voting behavior. In two elections, people voting in churches were more likely to support a conservative candidate and a ban on same-sex marriage, but not the restriction of eminent domain. A field experiment found that people completing questionnaires in a chapel awarded less money (relative to people in a secular building) to insurance claimants seeking compensation for abortion pills, but not to worker's compensation claimants. A laboratory experiment found that people subliminally exposed to ecclesiastical images awarded less money (relative to people exposed to control images) to abortion pill claimants, but not to worker's compensation claimants. Exposure to ecclesiastical images affected only Christians; non-Christians' awards were unaffected by the prime. These findings show that polling locations can exert a powerful and precise influence on political attitudes and decision making. [source] Moral Conviction and Political EngagementPOLITICAL PSYCHOLOGY, Issue 1 2008Linda J. Skitka The 2004 presidential election led to considerable discussion about whether moral values motivated people to vote, and if so, whether it led to a conservative electoral advantage. The results of two studies,one conducted in the context of the 2000 presidential election, the other in the context of the 2004 presidential election,indicated that stronger moral convictions associated with candidates themselves and attitudes on issues of the day uniquely predicted self-reported voting behavior and intentions to vote even when controlling for a host of alternative explanations (e.g., attitude strength, strength of party identification). In addition, we found strong support for the hypothesis that moral convictions equally motivated political engagement for those on the political right and left and little support for the notion that a combination of morality and politics is something more characteristic of the political right than it is of the political left. [source] Dynamics of Interpersonal Political Environment and Party Identification: Longitudinal Studies of Voting in Japan and New ZealandPOLITICAL PSYCHOLOGY, Issue 4 2005Ken'ichi Ikeda The dynamical systems theory of groups claims that interpersonal political environment and party identification are dynamically interrelated to provide heuristics under uncertainty. Panel data over the course of a year examined the longitudinal dynamics between social networks, social identifications, and voting behavior among a national sample of registered voters in Japan and a regional sample in Wellington, New Zealand. Respondents with more stable party identification had greater stability in the political preferences of their interpersonal network in both countries; moreover, stability in party identification was predicted by interpersonal political environment and older age in both countries. Stability of party identification predicted voting consistency in both countries, whereas stability of interpersonal political environment made an independent contribution to voting consistency in Japan only. There were cultural differences in levels of interpersonal political environment stability, but the amount of political discussion and ideological stability did not make independent contributions to any of the three main variables. Results provided support for the dynamical systems theory of groups. [source] Transition of Adolescent Political Action Orientations to Voting Behavior in Early Adulthood in View of a Social-Cognitive Action Theory Model of PersonalityPOLITICAL PSYCHOLOGY, Issue 2 2000Günter Krampen The political activity and voting behavior of 136 young German adults in 1994 were predicted by their political action orientations measured 7 years before. Respondents belonging to cohorts born in 1971, 1972, and 1973 were surveyed in 1987, 1988, and 1994. The questionnaires measured variables relevant to the social-cognitive action theory model of personality: self-concept of political competence, beliefs about political locus of control, political knowledge, trust in politics, satisfaction with politics, and political activity in everyday life. The results are interpreted with respect to the correlative and absolute stability versus plasticity of the variables from 1987 to 1994, as well as the predictive value of the action theory personality variables for political activities and for voting behavior measured 7 years later. Longitudinal results indicate a high predictive value of self-concept of political competence and political knowledge for political activity and voting in early adulthood. Because only these two personality variables showed relatively high positional stability coefficients from adolescence to early adulthood, the discussion refers to the necessity of early developmental interventions to prevent extreme types of politically uninterested and passive adults. Therefore, the social-cognitive action theory personality model of political participation is extended to a social-cognitive action theory personality model of political socialization in the life span. [source] Cue Voting: Which Women Vote for Women Senate Candidates?POLITICS & POLICY, Issue 2 2003Stephen J. Stambough This article explores the effects of candidate gender on individual voting behavior. We investigate whether female candidates attract support from female voters based on their gender. Our research centers around three areas. First, we discuss cue theory and how it applies to gender studies. Second, we investigate the 19 Senate elections from 1988-92 in which one of the major party candidates was a female. Finally, we examine the potential impact of partisanship and seat status,whether an incumbent ran or whether there was an open seat,on voting for female candidates. We find that seat status is important and that gender cue voting is a factor only among Republican voters, especially male Republicans. [source] Does Voting History Matter?AMERICAN JOURNAL OF POLITICAL SCIENCE, Issue 1 2009Analysing Persistence in Turnout Individuals who vote in one election are more likely to vote in the next. Yet modelling the causal relationship between past and current voting decisions is intrinsically difficult, as this positive association can exist due to habit formation or unobserved heterogeneity. This article overcomes this problem using longitudinal data from the British National Child Development Study (NCDS) to examine voter turnout across three elections. It distinguishes between unobserved heterogeneity caused by fixed individual characteristics and the initial conditions problem, which occurs when voting behavior in a previous, but unobserved, period influences current voting behavior. It finds that, controlling for fixed effects, unobserved heterogeneity has little impact on the estimated degree of habit in voter turnout; however, failing to control for initial conditions reduces the estimate by a half. The results imply that voting in one election increases the probability of voting in a subsequent election by 13%. [source] Change over Tenure: Voting, Variance, and Decision Making on the U.S. Courts of AppealsAMERICAN JOURNAL OF POLITICAL SCIENCE, Issue 3 2008Erin B. Kaheny Existing scholarship on the voting behavior of U.S. Courts of Appeals judges finds that their decisions are best understood as a function of law, policy preferences, and factors relating to the institutional context of the circuit court. What previous studies have failed to consider, however, is that the ability to predict circuit judge decisions can vary in substantively important ways and that judges, in different stages of their careers, may behave distinctively. This article develops a theoretical framework which conceptualizes career stage to account for variability in voting by circuit judges and tests hypotheses by modeling the error variance in a vote choice model. The findings indicate that judges are more predictable in their voting during their early and late career stages. Case characteristics and institutional features of the circuit also affect voting consistency. [source] Efficacy and Estrangement: Effects of VotingANALYSES OF SOCIAL ISSUES & PUBLIC POLICY, Issue 1 2009Justin D. Hackett This study examined changes in political efficacy and feelings of estrangement as a function of voting behavior in the 2008 presidential election in the U.S. Participants (n = 224), recruited from an online marketing company's representative panel of U.S. adults, completed a survey 4-6 weeks before the election and again 2-4 weeks after the election. Changes in internal and external political efficacy and feelings of estrangement were examined for three groups of voters (McCain voters, Obama voters, and non-voters) as well as by party affiliation. Internal political efficacy was and remained relatively high among Obama and McCain voters pre-election to post-election, but decreased for non-voters. Among Democrats, there was a significant increase in internal political efficacy, among Republicans, there was no change, and among those with no or a different party affiliation, there was a significant decrease. External political efficacy significantly increased pre-election to post-election among Obama voters and non-voters, but decreased for McCain voters. Additionally, post-election cultural estrangement was significantly higher among non-voters than voters. The results are discussed in terms of theoretical implications for understanding the potential impact of different forms of political participation. Several of the specific and distinctive aspects of the 2008 election and President Obama's campaign are also highlighted as they relate to voting behavior and potential changes in the American electorate. [source] | ||||||||||||||||