Home About us Contact
|
Home About us Contact | ||
|
|
||
Vote Choice (vote + choice)
Selected AbstractsMoral Values and Vote Choice in the 2004 U.S. Presidential ElectionPOLITICS & POLICY, Issue 2 2007Jonathan Knuckey Scholars and journalists have emphasized the growing importance of cultural issues and a "values divide" in shaping recent political behavior of the American electorate. Discussion of a values-based cleavage has been especially evident since exit polls for the 2004 presidential election revealed that "moral values" topped the list of issues that respondents cited as the "most important" issue in the election. While there has been considerable debate and disagreement over the influence of moral values in 2004, no analysis has performed a crucial test of the moral values hypothesis, namely developing a multivariate model to examine the effect of moral values on vote choice relative to other issue preferences and demographic variables. This article develops such a model using data from the 2004 American National Election Study. Findings suggest that moral values exerted an important effect on vote choice in the 2004 presidential election, even when other predictors of vote choice were included in a multivariate model. [source] Gender-based voting in the parliamentary elections of 2007 in FinlandEUROPEAN JOURNAL OF POLITICAL RESEARCH, Issue 5 2010ANNE MARIA HOLLI In contrast to many other countries, the Finnish open-list proportional representation (PR) system with its mandatory preferential voting provides an opportunity to study gender-based voting empirically. Using the 2007 Finnish national election study, the article presents an analysis of the grounds for same-gender voting, including motivations related to descriptive and substantive dimensions of representation. None of the motivations is able to account men's higher propensity to vote for a candidate of their own gender. The motivations linked to securing the descriptive and substantive representation of one's own gender in politics play a more decisive part on women's vote choice of same-gender candidates. Voting for a same-gender candidate is connected to younger age among both women and men, while the propensity to vote for female candidates increases with support for the Social Democrats, the Greens and the Swedish People's Party. Finally, gender, party choice, and descriptive and substantive motivations seem to be related to gender-based voting for both parliamentary and presidential elections. [source] Two-Timing: Politics and Response Latencies in a Bilingual SurveyPOLITICAL PSYCHOLOGY, Issue 1 2000Joseph F. Fletcher Through the recording of response times in a national four-wave bilingual panel survey, this study reports improvements in the prediction of vote choice up to 1 year in advance of a federal election. These results were achieved with conventional computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI) software, indicating that the immediate use of response time measures isboth practical and attractive for commercial as well as academic survey units. Even so, response latencies were found to be sensitive to political circumstance, such that timings should be analyzed separately for minority and majority populations. Moreover, a broad analytic focus, beyond timing only vote intention and partisan commitment, is recommended because latency data on core questions of identity and allegiance reveal a great deal about the contours ofpolitical context. [source] The Consolidation of the White Southern Congressional Vote: The Roles of Ideology and Party IdentificationPOLITICS & POLICY, Issue 3 2008Kenneth A. Wink This article examines the effects of party identification and ideology on white southerners' vote choices in U.S. House races from 1980 to 1994. Using American National Election Studies data, we employ descriptive statistics and a variety of regression techniques to test these relationships. We find party identification was more important in explaining vote choice in the election of 1994 than in previous years, and a majority of white southerners first identified with Republicans in 1994. We also find ideology had an independent effect on party identification for white southerners throughout the time series. We conclude that increasingly class-based, ideologically polarized parties, opposition to President Clinton and his health care plan, the success of the Republicans in framing the election as a national ideological struggle, and race-based redistricting after 1990 created a tendency of conservative white southerners to identify with Republicans and to vote for Republican House candidates in 1994. [source] Moral Values and Vote Choice in the 2004 U.S. Presidential ElectionPOLITICS & POLICY, Issue 2 2007Jonathan Knuckey Scholars and journalists have emphasized the growing importance of cultural issues and a "values divide" in shaping recent political behavior of the American electorate. Discussion of a values-based cleavage has been especially evident since exit polls for the 2004 presidential election revealed that "moral values" topped the list of issues that respondents cited as the "most important" issue in the election. While there has been considerable debate and disagreement over the influence of moral values in 2004, no analysis has performed a crucial test of the moral values hypothesis, namely developing a multivariate model to examine the effect of moral values on vote choice relative to other issue preferences and demographic variables. This article develops such a model using data from the 2004 American National Election Study. Findings suggest that moral values exerted an important effect on vote choice in the 2004 presidential election, even when other predictors of vote choice were included in a multivariate model. [source] The Reagan Democrat Phenomenon: How Wise Was the Conventional Wisdom?POLITICS & POLICY, Issue 4 2005Julio Borquez This article examines vote defection by white Democrats in the presidential elections of 1980,1988 and reconsiders the foundations of the "Reagan Democrat" phenomenon. The conventional wisdom has been that the defection of Reagan Democrats was motivated by conservative policy preferences, especially on race and redistribution. National Election Study data from 1980,1988 are used to test a multivariate model of vote choice. In 1980 and 1984, Democratic defectors were much more influenced by performance assessments than by policy preferences. Contrary to the prevailing storyline, Reagan Democrats were not voting to endorse a conservative policy agenda, but were more generally punishing Jimmy Carter in 1980 for poor performance in office and rewarding Ronald Reagan in 1984 for a job well done. Racial policy was a more potent influence on defection in 1988. [source] Race and the Recall: Racial and Ethnic Polarization in the California Recall ElectionAMERICAN JOURNAL OF POLITICAL SCIENCE, Issue 2 2008Gary M. Segura In the 2003 recall election in California, Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante received more than 1.25 million fewer votes in the replacement election than votes cast against the recall of Gray Davis. A much smaller group voted "yes" on the recall but voted for Bustamante. The principal underlying explanation is racial and ethnic polarization. Using L.A. Times exit poll data, we compare the characteristics of voters who displayed the two unusual behavioral patterns with those who voted in more conventional ways. We find that Latinos and African Americans are far less likely than non-Hispanic whites and Asian Americans to have defected from Bustamante given a "no" vote on the recall, and far more likely to have voted for Bustamante given a potentially strategic "yes" vote on the recall. The patterns of defection are consistent with racial polarization on Proposition 54, lending further credence to our claim that race and ethnicity persists as an important factor in vote choice, even in environments with a history of minority electoral success. [source] Economic Voting and Multilevel Governance: A Comparative Individual-Level AnalysisAMERICAN JOURNAL OF POLITICAL SCIENCE, Issue 2 2006Cameron D. Anderson An important component of incumbent support is the reward/punishment calculus of economic voting. Previous work has shown that "clarity of responsibility" within the central state government conditions national economic effects on incumbent vote choice: where clarity is high (low), economic effects are greater (less). This article advances the "clarity of responsibility" argument by considering the effect of multilevel governance on economic voting. In institutional contexts of multilevel governance, the process of correctly assigning responsibility for economic outcomes can be difficult. This article tests the proposition that multilevel governance mutes effects of national economic conditions by undermining responsibility linkages to the national government. Individual-level data from the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems Module 1 are used to test this proposition. Results demonstrate that economic voting is weakest in countries where multilevel governance is most prominent. Findings are discussed in light of the contribution to the economic voting literature and the potential implications of multilevel governance. [source] Voter Decision Making in Election 2000: Campaign Effects, Partisan Activation, and the Clinton LegacyAMERICAN JOURNAL OF POLITICAL SCIENCE, Issue 4 2003D. Sunshine Hillygus How do citizens respond to campaign events? We explore this question with a unique repeated measures survey design, fielded during the 2000 presidential campaign. We model transitions in support for the major party candidates following the party conventions and presidential debates. In the aggregate, Gore support increases following the conventions (but not the debates), while Bush support increases with the debates (but not the conventions). But there is considerable microlevel variation in the data: responsiveness to campaign events is greatest among Independents, undecided voters, and "mismatched partisans," but exactly how these groups respond differs for each event. Moreover, attitudes toward then President Clinton mediate the effect of the campaign events on voter preferences. Two primary conclusions follow: (1) rich data sets are required to observe the effects of campaign events; (2) the influence of campaign events on vote choice is conditional on previous preferences, partisan dispositions, and political context. [source] Implicit Race Attitudes Predicted Vote in the 2008 U.S. Presidential ElectionANALYSES OF SOCIAL ISSUES & PUBLIC POLICY, Issue 1 2009Anthony G. Greenwald In the week before the 2008 United States presidential election, 1,057 registered voters reported their choice between the principal contenders (John McCain and Barack Obama) and completed several measures that might predict their candidate preference, including two implicit and two self-report measures of racial preference for European Americans (Whites) relative to African Americans (Blacks) and measures of symbolic racism and political conservatism. Greater White preference on each of the four race attitude measures predicted intention to vote for McCain, the White candidate. The implicit race attitude measures (Implicit Association Test and Affect Misattribution Procedure) predicted vote choice independently of the self-report race attitude measures, and also independently of political conservatism and symbolic racism. These findings support construct validity of the implicit measures. [source] The Political Economy of Postmaterialism: Material Explanations of Changing ValuesECONOMICS & POLITICS, Issue 2 2002Robert Grafstein This paper uses a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of the US political economy to explore the impact of public insurance on the way individuals react to partisan changes in economic policy. In response to these aggregate political shocks, individuals rely on public insurance to insulate them from government-induced volatility in consumption. As a result, the public appears to be relatively less materialistic in its vote choices as well as in "values" surveys, but only because its underlying materialism has less political salience. Thus this insurance model provides an alternative analysis of the rise of "postmaterialist values" and their relation to unemployment. [source] | ||||||||||