Vector Error Correction Model (vector + error_correction_model)

Distribution by Scientific Domains
Distribution within Business, Economics, Finance and Accounting

Selected Abstracts

Canadian Provincial Budget Outcomes: A Long,run and Short,run Perspective

Christopher G. Reddick
This paper tests a theory of public budgeting as a long,run and short,run process. In this model, political decision makers strive to achieve budgetary balance over the long,run but are constrained in the short,run and follow incremental decision,making. First, the budget equilibrium theory is elaborated upon and is used to explain the relationship between revenues, expenditures, and debt along with control variables one being provincial general elections. Second, the interaction between these variables is tested with a vector error correction model for each of the Canadian provinces using annual data between 1961 and 2000. The results show that in the long,run the driving force of provincial budgeting was expenditure control initiatives in seven of the ten provinces. In the short,run, incrementalism occurred in all of the provinces and a political business cycle was evident in six provinces. [source]

Real interest rates linkages between the USA and the UK in the postwar period

Angelos Kanas
Abstract This paper addresses the issue of real interest rate linkages between the UK and the USA during the postwar period. We use a bivariate Markov switching vector error correction model, which accounts for both the regime switches in the real interest rates and their long-run cointegration properties over that period. We find strong evidence of two volatility regimes, namely a high-volatility and a low-volatility regime, jointly characterizing the US and the UK real interest rates. Evidence is found of high-volatility regime dependence between the two real interest rates. In addition, there is evidence of regime-dependent Granger causality: the US real interest rate Granger causes the UK only in the regime of high volatility. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source]

A small monetary system for the euro area based on German data

Ralf Brüggemann
Previous euro area money demand studies have used aggregated national time series data from the countries participating in the European Monetary Union (EMU). However, aggregation may be problematic because macroeconomic convergence processes have taken place in the countries of interest. Therefore, in this study, quarterly German data until 1998 are combined with data from the euro area from 1999 until 2002 and these series are used for fitting a small vector error correction model for the monetary sector of the EMU. A stable long-run money demand relation is found for the full sample period. Moreover, impulse responses do not change much when the sample period is extended by the EMU period provided the break in the extended data series is captured by a simple dummy variable. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source]

A monetary real-time conditional forecast of euro area inflation,

Sylvia Kaufmann
Abstract Based on a vector error correction model we produce conditional euro area inflation forecasts. We use real-time data on M3 and HICP, and include real GPD, the 3-month EURIBOR and the 10-year government bond yield as control variables. Real money growth and the term spread enter the system as stationary linear combinations. Missing and outlying values are substituted by model-based estimates using all available data information. In general, the conditional inflation forecasts are consistent with the European Central Bank's assessment of liquidity conditions for future inflation prospects. The evaluation of inflation forecasts under different monetary scenarios reveals the importance of keeping track of money growth rate in particular at the end of 2005. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source]

Price transmission in the Spanish bovine sector: the BSE effect

Islam Hassouneh
Food scare; BSE crisis; Price transmission; Regime-switching Abstract A regime-switching vector error correction model is applied to monthly price data to assess the impact of Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) outbreaks on price relationships and patterns of transmission among farm and retail markets for bovines in Spain. To evaluate the degree to which price transmission is affected by BSE food scares, a BSE food scare index is developed and used to determine regime switching. Results suggest that BSE scares affect beef producers and retailers differently. Consumer prices are found to be weakly exogenous and not found to react to BSE scares, while producer prices are conversely adjusted. The magnitude of the adjustment is found to depend on the magnitude of the BSE scare. [source]

Dynamics of petroleum markets in OECD countries in a monthly VAR,VEC model (1995,2007)

Mehdi Asali
This paper contains some results of a study in which the dynamics of petroleum markets in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) is investigated through a vector auto regression (VAR),vector error correction model. The time series of the model comprises the monthly data for the variables demand for oil in the OECD, WTI in real term as a benchmark oil price, industrial production in OECD as a proxy for income and commercial stocks of crude oil and oil products in OECD for the time period of January 1995 to September 2007. The detailed results of this empirical research are presented in different sections of the paper; nevertheless, the general result that emerges from this study could be summarised as follows: (i) there is convincing evidence of the series being non-stationary and integrated of order one I(1) with clear signs of co-integration relations between the series; (ii) the VAR system of the empirical study appears stable and restores its dynamics as usual, following a shock to the rate of changes of different variables of the model, taking between five and eight periods (months in our case); (iii) we find the lag length of 2 as being optimal for the estimated VAR model; (iv) significant impact of changes in the commercial crude and products' inventory level on oil price and on demand for oil is highlighted in our empirical study and in different formulations of the VAR model, indicating the importance of the changes in the stocks' level on oil market dynamics; and (v) income elasticity of deman for oil appears to be prominent and statistically significant in most estimated models of the VAR system in the long run, while price elasticity of demand for oil is found to be negligible and insignificant in the short run. However, while aggregate oil consumption does not appear to be very sensitive to the changes of oil prices (which is believed to be because of the so-called ,rebound effect' of oil (energy) efficiency in the macro level) in the macro level, the declining trend of oil intensity (oil used for production of unit value of goods and services), particularly when there is an upward trend in oil price, clearly indicates the channels through which persistent changes in oil prices could affect the demand for oil in OECD countries. [source]

Forecasting oil price movements: Exploiting the information in the futures market

Andrea Coppola
Relying on the cost of carry model, the long-run relationship between spot and futures prices is investigated and the information implied in these cointegrating relationships is used to forecast out of sample oil spot and futures price movements. To forecast oil price movements, a vector error correction model (VECM) is employed, where the deviations from the long-run relationships between spot and futures prices constitute the equilibrium error. To evaluate forecasting performance, the random walk model (RWM) is used as a benchmark. It was found that (a) in-sample, the information in the futures market can explain a sizable portion of oil price movements; and (b) out-of-sample, the VECM outperforms the RWM in forecasting price movements of 1-month futures contracts. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 28:34,56, 2008 [source]

The dynamics of the relationship between spot and futures markets under high and low variance regimes

Ming-Yuan Leon Li
Abstract This investigation is one of the first studies to examine the dynamics of the relationship between spot and futures markets using the Markov-switching vector error correction model. Three mature stock markets including the U.S. S&P500, the U.K. FTSE100 and the German DAX 30, and two emerging markets including the Brazil Bovespa and the Hungary BSI, are used to test the model, and the differences between the two sets of markets are examined. The empirical findings of this study are consistent with the following notions. First, after filtering out the high variance regime, the futures price is shown to lead the spot price in the price discovery process, as demonstrated by prior studies; conversely, the spot market is more informationally efficient than the futures market under the high variance condition. Second, the price adjustment process triggered by arbitrage trading between spot and futures markets during a high variance state is greater in scale than that based on a low variance state, and the degree of the co-movement between spot and futures markets is significantly reduced during the high variance state. Third, a crisis condition involved in the high variance state is defined for the two emerging markets, whereas an unusual condition is presented for the three mature markets. Last, the lagged spot,futures price deviations perform as an information variable for the variance-turning process. However, the portion of the variance-switching process accounted for by this signal variable is statistically marginal for the three mature markets selected for this study. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source]


This paper examines the relationship between unemployment and immigration in Canada. The bi-directional causality test finds no evidence of a significant effect of Canadian immigration on unemployment. Cointegration tests indicate that there is no observed increase in aggregate unemployment due to immigration in the long run. The results from the causality test based on the vector error correction model confirm that, in the short run, past unemployment does cause (less) immigration but not vice versa. There is also a long-run positive relationship among per-capita GDP, immigration rate and real wages. The results indicate that, in the short-run, more immigration is possibly associated with attractive Canadian immigration policies, and in the long-run, as the labour market adjusts, Canadian-born workers are likely to benefit from increased migration. [source]