			Home About us Contact

Unidirectional Causality (unidirectional + causality)

Distribution by Scientific Domains

Business, Economics, Finance and Accounting	75%

Selected Abstracts

International tourism and economic development in South Africa: a Granger causality test

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF TOURISM RESEARCH, Issue 2 2010
Oludele A. Akinboade
Abstract One of the major objectives of macroeconomic policies in many developing countries is sustained economic growth, and South Africa has been striving to achieve and maintain this in various ways. One of these is through international tourism. Although international tourism contributes to the growth of many economies, it is in turn, impacted by growth in many developed countries. Real gross domestic product (GDP), international tourism earnings, real effective exchange rate and exports were analysed within a multivariate vector auto regressive model using annual data covering 1980,2005. The main focus of this study therefore was to demonstrate the direction of causality between international tourism earnings and long-run economic growth of South Africa, among other variables, using Granger causality analysis. The result obtained showed a unidirectional causality running from international tourism earnings to real GDP, both in the short run and in the long run. The error correction mechanism carried out also supported this causality. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source]

EXPORT-LED GROWTH HYPOTHESIS: FURTHER ECONOMETRIC EVIDENCE FROM SOUTH ASIA

THE DEVELOPING ECONOMIES, Issue 4 2005
NASIM SHAH SHIRAZI
This paper examines the export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis for five South Asian countries through cointegration and multivariate Granger causality tests. Strong support for a long-run relationship among exports, imports, and real output for all the countries except Sri Lanka were found. Feedback effects between exports and GDP for Bangladesh and Nepal and unidirectional causality from exports to output in the case of Pakistan were found. No causality between these variables was found for Sri Lanka and India, although for India GDP and exports did induce imports. A feedback effect between imports and GDP was also documented for Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Nepal, as well as unidirectional causality from imports to output growth for Sri Lanka. These and other findings are discussed from the standpoint of the export-led growth hypothesis. [source]

Exploring the impact of R&D and climate change on agricultural productivity growth: the case of Western Australia,

AUSTRALIAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL & RESOURCE ECONOMICS, Issue 4 2010
Ruhul A. Salim
This article empirically examines the impact of R&D and climate change on the Western Australian Agricultural sector using standard time series econometrics. Based on historical data for the period of 1977,2005, the empirical results show that both R&D and climate change matter for long-run productivity growth. The long-run elasticity of total factor productivity (TFP) with respect to R&D expenditure is 0.497, while that of climate change is 0.506. There is a unidirectional causality running from R&D expenditure to TFP growth in both the short run and long run. Further, the variance decomposition and impulse response function confirm that a significant portion of output and productivity growth beyond the sample period is explained by R&D expenditure. These results justify the increase in R&D investment in the deteriorating climatic condition in the agricultural sector to improve the long-run prospects of productivity growth. [source]

Testing for Temporal Asymmetry in the Price-Volume Relationship

BULLETIN OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH, Issue 4 2003
Imad A. Moosa
G14; C22 Abstract This paper presents some evidence for the presence of temporal asymmetry in the price-volume relationship in the crude oil futures market. By using threshold models we show that there is bidirectional causality between volume and prices, whereas the conventional model that assumes symmetry can only detect unidirectional causality. The results also show that the price-volume relationship is asymmetric, in the sense that negative price and volume changes have stronger effects (on each other) than positive changes. Some explanations for asymmetry in the price-volume relationship are suggested. [source]