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Uncorrelated
Selected AbstractsStress Resistance and Environmental Dependency of Inbreeding Depression in Drosophila melanogasterCONSERVATION BIOLOGY, Issue 4 2000Jesper Dahlgaard Two important issues are whether stress and inbreeding effects are independent as opposed to synergistic, and whether inbreeding effects are general across stresses as opposed to stress-specific. We found that inbreeding reduced resistance to acetone and desiccation in adult Drosophila melanogaster, whereas resistance to knockdown heat stress was not affected. Inbred flies, however, experienced a greater proportional decrease in productivity than outbreds following heat stress. Correlations using line means indicated that all resistance traits were uncorrelated in the inbred as well as in the outbred flies. Recessive, deleterious alleles therefore did not appear to have any general deleterious effects on stress resistance. Inbreeding within a specific environment and selection for resistant genotypes may therefore purge a population of deleterious genes specific to only one environmental stress. Resumen: Tanto la endogamia como el estrés ambiental pueden tener efectos adversos sobre la adaptabilidad afectando la conservación de especies en peligro de extinción. Dos temas importantes son determinar si los efectos del estrés y la endogamia son independientes en lugar de ser sinérgicos, y determinar si los efectos de la endogamia son generales para distintos tipos de estrés o si son específicos para un tipo determinado de estrés. Encontramos que la endogamia reduce la resistencia a la acetona y la desecación en adultos de Drosophila melanogaster, mientras que la resistencia al efecto demoledor del estrés por calor no fue afectada. Sin embargo, las moscas endogámicas experimentaron una disminución proporcionalmente mayor en la productividad que aquellas moscas sin endogamia después de experimentar un estrés por calor. Las correlaciones obtenidas usando líneas medias indicaron que las características de resistencia no estuvieron correlacionadas ni en moscas con endogamia, ni en moscas sin ella. Aparentemente los alelos nocivos recesivos no tuvieron ningún efecto nocivo general en la resistencia al estrés. La endogamia dentro de un ambiente específico y la selección por genotipos resistentes podrían, por lo tanto, eliminar una población de genes nocivos específicos a un solo estrés ambiental. [source] Temporal correlations and clustering of landslidesEARTH SURFACE PROCESSES AND LANDFORMS, Issue 10 2010Annette Witt Abstract This paper examines temporal correlations and temporal clustering of a proxy historical landslide time series, 2255 reported landslides 1951,2002, for an area in the Emilia-Romagna Region, Italy. Landslide intensity is measured by the number of reported landslides in a day (DL) and in an ,event' (Sevent) of consecutive days with landsliding. The non-zero values in both time series DL and Sevent are unequally spaced in time, and have heavy-tailed frequency-size distributions. To examine temporal correlations, we use power-spectral analysis (Lomb periodogram) and surrogate data analysis, confronting our original DL and Sevent time series with 1000 shuffled (uncorrelated) versions. We conclude that the landslide intensity series DL has strong temporal correlations and Sevent has likely temporal correlations. To examine temporal clustering in DL and Sevent, we consider extremes over different landslide intensity thresholds. We first examine the statistical distribution of interextreme occurrence times, ,, and find Weibull distributions with parameter , << 1·0 [DL] and , < 1·0 [Sevent]; thus DL and Sevent each have temporal correlations, but Sevent to a lesser degree. We next examine correlations between successive interextreme occurrence times, ,. Using autocorrelation analysis applied to ,, combined with surrogate data analysis, we find for DL linear correlations in ,, but for Sevent inconclusive results. However, using Kendall's rank correlation analysis we find for both DL and Sevent the series of , are strongly correlated. Finally, we apply Fano Factor analysis, finding for both DL and Sevent the timings of extremes over a given threshold exhibit a fractal structure and are clustered in time. In this paper, we provide a framework for examining time series where the non-zero values are strongly unequally spaced and heavy-tailed, particularly important in the Earth Sciences due to their common occurrence, and find that landslide intensity time series exhibit temporal correlations and clustering. Many landslide models currently are designed under the assumption that landslides are uncorrelated in time, which we show is false. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Trophic level modulates carabid beetle responses to habitat and landscape structure: a pan-European studyECOLOGICAL ENTOMOLOGY, Issue 2 2010ADAM J. VANBERGEN 1. Anthropogenic pressures have produced heterogeneous landscapes expected to influence diversity differently across trophic levels and spatial scales. 2. We tested how activity density and species richness of carabid trophic groups responded to local habitat and landscape structure (forest percentage cover and habitat richness) in 48 landscape parcels (1 km2) across eight European countries. 3. Local habitat affected activity density, but not species richness, of both trophic groups. Activity densities were greater in rotational cropping compared with other habitats; phytophage densities were also greater in grassland than forest habitats. 4. Controlling for country and habitat effects, we found general trophic group responses to landscape structure. Activity densities of phytophages were positively correlated, and zoophages uncorrelated, with increasing habitat richness. This differential functional group response to landscape structure was consistent across Europe, indicated by a lack of a country × habitat richness interaction. Species richness was unaffected by landscape structure. 5. Phytophage sensitivity to landscape structure may arise from relative dependency on seed from ruderal plants. This trophic adaptation, rare in Carabidae, leads to lower phytophage numbers, increasing vulnerability to demographic and stochastic processes that the greater abundance, species richness, and broader diet of the zoophage group may insure against. [source] Gall wasps and their parasitoids in cork oak fragmented forestsECOLOGICAL ENTOMOLOGY, Issue 1 2007GUILLEM CHUST Abstract 1.,This paper explores the potential effects of host-plant fragmentation on cork oak gall wasp populations (Cynipidae, Hymenoptera) and on their predators, lethal inquilines, and parasitoids. To address this objective, galls were collected across a gradient of cork oak (Quercus suber) forest fragmentation in the East Pyrenees (Albera, Spain), and they were incubated to obtain the parasitism rates. 2.,Two hypotheses were tested: (1) Host-plant fragmentation may induce a decline in gall wasp populations because of area and isolation effects on local extinction and dispersal; as a consequence of that, parasitoids may decline even more strongly in fragmented habitats than their prey. (2) Host-plant fragmentation may cause a decline in gall wasp parasitoid populations that, in turn, can lead to an ecological release in their prey populations. 3.,Among the eight cork oak gall wasps sampled in the study area of Albera, the gall abundances of three species (Callirhytis glandium, Callirhytis rufescens, and Andricus hispanicus) were significantly related to forest fragmentation. The overall abundance of gall wasps was affected by a radius of , 890 m surrounding landscape, presenting constant abundances with forest loss until forest cover is reduced at , 40%; below that value the abundance increased rapidly. Three inquilines and 23 parasitoids species were recorded after gall incubation. In 25 cases, species of inquilines and parasitoids were newly recorded for the corresponding host in the Iberian peninsula. 4.,Although the overall parasitism rate was high (1.1), it was uncorrelated with fragmentation and with overall cynipid abundance. These results indicate that host-plant fragmentation was correlated with higher abundance of gall wasps, whereas the parasitism rate could not explain this hyper-abundance in small forest fragments. [source] Structural dynamics and robustness of food websECOLOGY LETTERS, Issue 7 2010Phillip P. A. Staniczenko Ecology Letters (2010) 13: 891,899 Abstract Food web structure plays an important role when determining robustness to cascading secondary extinctions. However, existing food web models do not take into account likely changes in trophic interactions (,rewiring') following species loss. We investigated structural dynamics in 12 empirically documented food webs by simulating primary species loss using three realistic removal criteria, and measured robustness in terms of subsequent secondary extinctions. In our model, novel trophic interactions can be established between predators and food items not previously consumed following the loss of competing predator species. By considering the increase in robustness conferred through rewiring, we identify a new category of species , overlap species , which promote robustness as shown by comparing simulations incorporating structural dynamics to those with static topologies. The fraction of overlap species in a food web is highly correlated with this increase in robustness; whereas species richness and connectance are uncorrelated with increased robustness. Our findings underline the importance of compensatory mechanisms that may buffer ecosystems against environmental change, and highlight the likely role of particular species that are expected to facilitate this buffering. [source] Testing Parameters in GMM Without Assuming that They Are IdentifiedECONOMETRICA, Issue 4 2005Frank Kleibergen We propose a generalized method of moments (GMM) Lagrange multiplier statistic, i.e., the K statistic, that uses a Jacobian estimator based on the continuous updating estimator that is asymptotically uncorrelated with the sample average of the moments. Its asymptotic ,2 distribution therefore holds under a wider set of circumstances, like weak instruments, than the standard full rank case for the expected Jacobian under which the asymptotic ,2 distributions of the traditional statistics are valid. The behavior of the K statistic can be spurious around inflection points and maxima of the objective function. This inadequacy is overcome by combining the K statistic with a statistic that tests the validity of the moment equations and by an extension of Moreira's (2003) conditional likelihood ratio statistic toward GMM. We conduct a power comparison to test for the risk aversion parameter in a stochastic discount factor model and construct its confidence set for observed consumption growth and asset return series. [source] The Stability of the Relation Between the Stock Market and Macroeconomic ForcesECONOMIC NOTES, Issue 3 2002Fabio Panetta This paper identifies the macroeconomic factors that influence Italian equity returns and tests the stability of their relation with securities returns. The relation between stock returns and the macroeconomic factors is found to be unstable: not only are the factor loadings of individual securities virtually uncorrelated over time, but a high percentage of the shares experience a reversal of the sign of the estimated loadings. This result is not confined to single periods or to a small group of shares, but holds in different sub,periods and for securities in all risk classes. These findings suggest that research should carefully investigate the specification of the return generating process and the stability of the risk measures. (J.E.L.: G12, E44). [source] Agreeableness is related to social-cognitive, but not social-perceptual, theory of mindEUROPEAN JOURNAL OF PERSONALITY, Issue 4 2008Daniel Nettle Abstract We hypothesise on a number of grounds that the personality dimension of Agreeableness may be associated with inter-individual differences in theory of mind (ToM) functioning. However, it is important to distinguish social-perceptual from social-cognitive ToM. Previous findings on ToM in psychopathic individuals, sex differences in ToM and the associations between ToM and social relationships, all suggest that social-cognitive ToM is more likely than social-perceptual ToM to relate to Agreeableness. In separate empirical studies, we find that Agreeableness is substantially correlated with social-cognitive ToM performance, but uncorrelated with social-perceptual ToM performance. We suggest that the propensity or motivation to attend to the mental states of others may be central to the personality dimension of Agreeableness. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Patterns in naevoid skin disease: development, disease and modellingEXPERIMENTAL DERMATOLOGY, Issue 3 2010Stephen J. Gilmore Please cite this paper as: Patterns in naevoid skin disease: development, disease and modelling. Experimental Dermatology 2010; 19: 240,245. Abstract:, The aetiology of pattern-formation in human naevoid skin disease remains unknown. However, it is likely that the majority of previously proposed mechanisms , those that simply rely on passive clonal trafficking in embryogenesis , are incomplete. A more comprehensive explanation for pattern-formation in naevi invokes the principle of self-organization. We define two types of patterning: anatomical and functional. Anatomical patterning is where the abnormal clone is limited to regions of pathologic skin, while functional patterning is where the abnormal clone and pathologic skin are spatially uncorrelated. From a theoretical perspective self-organized naevoid patterns may be either secondary to local interactions between normal and aberrant genotypes or due to the interaction between aberrant genotypes and the presence of normal embryonic patterning cues. The latter possibility suggests the critical observation and analysis of patterns in naevoid skin disease may lead to unique insights into key aspects of early human embryogenesis. [source] THE DIVIDED WORLD OF THE CHILD: DIVORCE AND LONG-TERM PSYCHOSOCIAL ADJUSTMENTFAMILY COURT REVIEW, Issue 3 2010Gordon E. Finley This study evaluated the extent to which divorce creates the "divided world of the child," as well as consequences of this "divided world" for long-term adjustment. An ethnically diverse sample of 1,375 young-adult university students completed retrospective measures of parental nurturance and involvement, and current measures of psychosocial adjustment and troubled ruminations about parents. Results indicated that reports of maternal and paternal nurturance and involvement were closely related in intact families but uncorrelated in divorced families. Across family forms, the total amount of nurturance or involvement received was positively associated with self-esteem, purpose in life, life satisfaction, friendship quality and satisfaction, and academic performance; and negatively related to distress, romantic relationship problems, and troubled ruminations about parents. Mother-father differences in nurturance and involvement showed a largely opposite set of relationships. Implications for family court practices are discussed. [source] Embryo growth rates in birds and mammalsFUNCTIONAL ECOLOGY, Issue 3 2010Robert E. Ricklefs Summary 1.,Embryo mass growth curves of 36 species of bird and 18 species of mammal were fitted by sigmoidal Gompertz functions, in which k (days,1) describes the rate at which the embryo approaches an asymptotic mass A (g). 2.,The parameters of the Gompertz function were uncorrelated with parameters of power functions fitted to the same growth data, indicating that the two models describe different aspects of growth. 3.,Asymptotes of the Gompertz functions for embryonic growth averaged 2·5 times neonate size, but were well below adult mass. Thus, the pre- and postnatal phases of growth are distinct and have different target sizes. 4.,Embryo growth rate (k) decreases as the ,1/4 power of neonate size; values for mammals were 63% of those of birds, on average. 5.,Embryo growth rate can be predicted solely by the length of the incubation or gestation period, regardless of the size of the neonate, with the same relationship for birds and mammals. 6.,Postnatal growth rate (kG) scales linearly with embryonic growth rate (k), but is nearly five- times more rapid, on average, in birds than in mammals. kG and k have similar magnitude in birds, but kG is relatively much slower than k in mammals. 7.,Rate of actuarial senescence , (year,1), measured by the increase in mortality rate with age, is positively related to the rate of embryo growth in both birds and mammals, but is higher in the latter. Moreover, rate of ageing in birds is uniquely related to embryo growth while that in mammals is uniquely related to postnatal growth rate. Thus, development and ageing appear to be differently connected in birds and mammals, although the basis for these relationships is not known. [source] On establishing the accuracy of noise tomography travel-time measurements in a realistic mediumGEOPHYSICAL JOURNAL INTERNATIONAL, Issue 3 2009Victor C. Tsai SUMMARY It has previously been shown that the Green's function between two receivers can be retrieved by cross-correlating time series of noise recorded at the two receivers. This property has been derived assuming that the energy in normal modes is uncorrelated and perfectly equipartitioned, or that the distribution of noise sources is uniform in space and the waves measured satisfy a high frequency approximation. Although a number of authors have successfully extracted travel-time information from seismic surface-wave noise, the reason for this success of noise tomography remains unclear since the assumptions inherent in previous derivations do not hold for dispersive surface waves on the Earth. Here, we present a simple ray-theory derivation that facilitates an understanding of how cross correlations of seismic noise can be used to make direct travel-time measurements, even if the conditions assumed by previous derivations do not hold. Our new framework allows us to verify that cross-correlation measurements of isotropic surface-wave noise give results in accord with ray-theory expectations, but that if noise sources have an anisotropic distribution or if the velocity structure is non-uniform then significant differences can sometimes exist. We quantify the degree to which the sensitivity kernel is different from the geometric ray and find, for example, that the kernel width is period-dependent and that the kernel generally has non-zero sensitivity away from the geometric ray, even within our ray theoretical framework. These differences lead to usually small (but sometimes large) biases in models of seismic-wave speed and we show how our theoretical framework can be used to calculate the appropriate corrections. Even when these corrections are small, calculating the errors within a theoretical framework would alleviate fears traditional seismologists may have regarding the robustness of seismic noise tomography. [source] Arsenic in Glacial Aquifers: Sources and Geochemical ControlsGROUND WATER, Issue 4 2005Walton R. Kelly A total of 176 wells in sand-and-gravel glacial aquifers in central Illinois were sampled for arsenic (As) and other chemical parameters. The results were combined with archived and published data from several hundred well samples to determine potential sources of As and the potential geochemical controls on its solubility and mobility. There was considerable spatial variability in the As concentrations. High concentrations were confined to areas smaller than 1 km in diameter. Arsenic and well depth were uncorrelated. Arsenic solubility appeared to be controlled by oxidation-reduction (redox) conditions, especially the presence of organic matter. Geochemical conditions in the aquifers are typically reducing, but only in the most reducing water does As accumulate in solution. In wells in which total organic carbon (TOC) was below 2 mg/L and sulfate (SO42,) was present, As concentrations were low or below the detection limit (0.5 ,g/L). Arsenic concentrations >10 ,g/L were almost always found in wells where TOC was >2 mg/L and SO42, was absent or at low concentrations, indicating post,SO42,reducing conditions. Iron (Fe) is common in the aquifer sediments, and Fe oxide reduction appears to be occurring throughout the aquifers. Arsenic is likely released from the solid phase as Fe oxide is reduced. [source] Supraspinal Modulation of Trigeminal Nociception and PainHEADACHE, Issue 5 2009Amy E. Williams MA Objective., This study examined modulation of trigeminal pain/nociception by 2 supraspinal mechanisms: emotional controls of nociception and diffuse noxious inhibitory controls. Background., Prior research suggests emotional picture viewing (emotional controls) and tonic noxious stimuli (diffuse noxious inhibitory controls) engage supraspinal mechanisms to modulate pain and nociceptive processes. It is currently unknown, however, whether emotional controls modulate trigeminal pain and nociception. Additionally, the influences of emotional controls and diffuse noxious inhibitory controls have not been compared in the same group of participants. Methods., Noxious electrodermal stimuli were delivered to the trigeminal nerve using a concentric electrode designed to selectively activate nociceptive fibers. Trigeminal nociception and pain were assessed (34 participants) from the nociceptive blink reflex and pain ratings, respectively. Emotional controls were engaged by presentation of standardized picture stimuli (pleasant, neutral, and unpleasant) shown to reliably evoke pleasure-induced inhibition and displeasure-induced facilitation of pain and nociception. Diffuse noxious inhibitory controls were engaged with a forearm ischemia task. Results., Trigeminal pain (self-report ratings) and nociception (blinks) were facilitated by unpleasant pictures and inhibited by pleasant pictures. Emotion induction (as assessed from trend analysis) explained 51% of the variance in trigeminal pain and 25% of the variance in trigeminal nociception. Additionally, forearm ischemia inhibited trigeminal pain but not nociception. The baseline vs ischemia comparison explained 17% of the variance in pain report and 0.1% of the variance in blinks. Supraspinal modulation by emotional controls and diffuse noxious inhibitory controls were uncorrelated. Conclusions., Emotional controls and diffuse noxious inhibitory controls modulated trigeminal pain and emotional controls modulated trigeminal nociception. These procedures can be used to study supraspinal modulation of nociceptive processing in disorders of the trigeminal pain system, including headache. [source] Modeling Age Differences in Infant Category LearningINFANCY, Issue 2 2004Thomas R. Shultz We used an encoder version of cascade correlation to simulate Younger and Cohen's (1983, 1986) finding that 10-month-olds recover attention on the basis of correlations among stimulus features, but 4- and 7-month-olds recover attention on the basis of stimulus features. We captured these effects by varying the score threshold parameter in cascade correlation, which controls how deeply training patterns are learned. When networks learned deeply, they showed more error to uncorrelated than to correlated test patterns, indicating that they abstracted correlations during familiarization. When prevented from learning deeply, networks decreased error during familiarization and showed as much error to correlated as to uncorrelated tests but less than to test items with novel features, indicating that they learned features but not correlations among features. Our explanation is that older infants learn more from the same exposure than do younger infants. Unlike previous explanations that postulate unspecified qualitative shifts in processing with age, our explanation focuses on quantitatively deeper learning with increasing age. Finally, we provide some new empirical evidence to support this explanation. [source] The (Ir)Relevance of Militarized Interstate Disputes for International TradeINTERNATIONAL STUDIES QUARTERLY, Issue 1 2002Quan Li Do military disputes between two states suppress trade between their firms? Both liberals and realists suggest that conflict occurrence reduces bilateral trade. However, using a rational expectation argument, Morrow (1999) proposes that conflict occurrence and trade should be uncorrelated statistically. Empirical evidence to date both supports expectations and appears contradictory and inconclusive. We offer a theory that reconciles, encompasses, and extends the competing arguments, explaining the empirical inconsistency. By incorporating rational expectations and uncertainty into the profit calculus of trading firms, the theory identifies the conditions under which various properties of a conflict (onset, duration, and severity) should and should not reduce bilateral trade ex ante and ex post. We test the ex post effects in two datasets that cover either a wider range of countries or a longer time period than previous quantitative studies. Both an unexpected MID onset and the unexpectedness of a MID onset reduce bilateral trade substantially ex post. Preliminary tests suggest that MID duration and severity also affect bilateral trade ex post. We conclude by discussing the implications of our research. [source] Comparison of models for genetic evaluation of survival traits in dairy cattle: a simulation studyJOURNAL OF ANIMAL BREEDING AND GENETICS, Issue 2 2008J. Jamrozik Summary Three models for the analysis of functional survival data in dairy cattle were compared using stochastic simulation. The simulated phenotype for survival was defined as a month after the first calving (from 1 to 100) in which a cow was involuntarily removed from the herd. Parameters for simulation were based on survival data of the Canadian Jersey population. Three different levels of heritability of survival (0.100, 0.050 and 0.025) and two levels of numbers of females per generation (2000 or 4000) were considered in the simulation. Twenty generations of random mating and selection (on a second trait, uncorrelated with survival) with 20 replicates were simulated for each scenario. Sires were evaluated for survival of their daughters by three models: proportional hazard (PH), linear multiple-trait (MT), and random regression (RR) animal models. Different models gave different ranking of sires with respect to survival of their daughters. Correlations between true and estimated breeding values for survival to five different points in a cow's lifetime after the first calving (120 and 240 days in milk after first, second, third and fourth calving) favoured the PH model, followed by the RR model evaluations. Rankings of models were independent of the heritability level, female population size and sire progeny group size (20 or 100). The RR model, however, showed a slight superiority over MT and PH models in predicting the proportion of sire's daughters that survived to the five different end-points after the first calving. [source] Linking movement behaviour, dispersal and population processes: is individual variation a key?JOURNAL OF ANIMAL ECOLOGY, Issue 5 2009Colin Hawkes Summary 1Movement behaviour has become increasingly important in dispersal ecology and dispersal is central to the development of spatially explicit population ecology. The ways in which the elements have been brought together are reviewed with particular emphasis on dispersal distance distributions and the value of mechanistic models. 2There is a continuous range of movement behaviours and in some species, dispersal is a clearly delineated event but not in others. The biological complexities restrict conclusions to high-level generalizations but there may be principles that are common to dispersal and other movements. 3Random walk and diffusion models when appropriately elaborated can provide an understanding of dispersal distance relationships on spatial and temporal scales relevant to dispersal. Leptokurtosis in the relationships may be the result of a combination of factors including population heterogeneity, correlation, landscape features, time integration and density dependence. The inclusion in diffusion models of individual variation appears to be a useful elaboration. The limitations of the negative exponential and other phenomenological models are discussed. 4The dynamics of metapopulation models are sensitive to what appears to be small differences in the assumptions about dispersal. In order to represent dispersal realistically in population models, it is suggested that phenomenological models should be replaced by those based on movement behaviour incorporating individual variation. 5The conclusions are presented as a set of candidate principles for evaluation. The main features of the principles are that uncorrelated or correlated random walk, not linear movement, is expected where the directions of habitat patches are unpredictable and more complex behaviour when organisms have the ability to orientate or navigate. Individuals within populations vary in their movement behaviour and dispersal; part of this variation is a product of random elements in movement behaviour and some of it is heritable. Local and metapopulation dynamics are influenced by population heterogeneity in dispersal characteristics and heritable changes in dispersal propensity occur on time-scales short enough to impact population dynamics. [source] The effects of technology shocks on hours and output: a robustness analysisJOURNAL OF APPLIED ECONOMETRICS, Issue 5 2010Fabio Canova We analyze the effects of neutral and investment-specific technology shocks on hours and output. Long cycles in hours are removed in a variety of ways. Hours robustly fall in response to neutral shocks and robustly increase in response to investment-specific shocks. The percentage of the variance of hours (output) explained by neutral shocks is small (large); the opposite is true for investment-specific shocks. ,News shocks' are uncorrelated with the estimated technology shocks. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] How quickly do forecasters incorporate news?JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECONOMETRICS, Issue 6 2006Evidence from cross-country surveys Using forecasts from Consensus Economics Inc., we provide evidence on the efficiency of real GDP growth forecasts by testing whether forecast revisions are uncorrelated. As the forecast data used are multi-dimensional,18 countries, 24 monthly forecasts for the current and the following year and 16 target years,the panel estimation takes into account the complex structure of the variance,covariance matrix due to propagation of shocks across countries and economic linkages among them. Efficiency is rejected for all 18 countries: forecast revisions show a high degree of serial correlation. We then develop a framework for characterizing the nature of the inefficiency in forecasts. For a smaller set of countries, the G-7, we estimate a VAR model on forecast revisions. The degree of inefficiency, as manifested in the serial correlation of forecast revisions, tends to be smaller in forecasts of the USA than in forecasts for European countries. Our framework also shows that one of the sources of the inefficiency in a country's forecasts is resistance to utilizing foreign news. Thus the quality of forecasts for many of these countries can be significantly improved if forecasters pay more attention to news originating from outside their respective countries. This is particularly the case for Canadian and French forecasts, which would gain by paying greater attention than they do to news from the USA and Germany, respectively. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Application of microbial source tracking methods in a Gulf of Mexico field settingJOURNAL OF APPLIED MICROBIOLOGY, Issue 5 2009A. Korajkic Abstract Aims:, Microbial water quality and possible human sources of faecal pollution were assessed in a Florida estuary that serves shellfishing and recreational activities. Methods and Results:, Indicator organisms (IO), including faecal coliforms, Escherichia coli and enterococci, were quantified from marine and river waters, sediments and oysters. Florida recreational water standards were infrequently exceeded (6,10% of samples); however, shellfishing standards were more frequently exceeded (28%). IO concentrations in oysters and overlaying waters were significantly correlated, but oyster and sediment IO concentrations were uncorrelated. The human-associated esp gene of Enterococcus faecium was detected in marine and fresh waters at sites with suspected human sewage contamination. Lagrangian drifters, used to determine the pathways of bacterial transport and deposition, suggested that sediment deposition from the Ochlockonee River contributes to frequent detection of esp at a Gulf of Mexico beach. Conclusions:, These data indicate that human faecal pollution affects water quality in Wakulla County and that local topography and hydrology play a role in bacterial transport and deposition. Significance and Impact of the Study:, A combination of IO enumeration, microbial source tracking methods and regional hydrological study can reliably inform regulatory agencies of IO sources, improving risk assessment and pollution mitigation in impaired waters. [source] When heavier birds lose more mass during breeding: statistical artefact or biologically meaningful?JOURNAL OF AVIAN BIOLOGY, Issue 2 2000Sabine G. Gebhardt-HenrichArticle first published online: 30 OCT 200 Several studies on mass loss during breeding in female birds have shown a significant correlation between initial body mass and subsequent loss of body mass. The significant positive regression coefficient of mass loss on initial mass was interpreted as evidence for a greater mass loss of initially heavier birds. However, the positive correlation between mass loss and initial mass arises automatically even when initial and final body masses are uncorrelated and has no necessary biological meaning. This is shown analytically here. In general, a spurious correlation arises when one variable (e.g. mass loss) is part of another variable (e.g. initial mass) and then regressed on it. [source] On the impact of uncorrelated variation in regression mathematicsJOURNAL OF CHEMOMETRICS, Issue 11-12 2008Johan Gottfries Abstract The objective of the present study is to investigate if, and if so, how uncorrelated variation relates to regression mathematics as exemplified by partial least squares (PLS) methodology. In contrast to previous methods, orthogonal partial least squares (OPLS) method requires a multi-focus, in the sense that in parallel to calculation of correlation it requires an analysis of orthogonal variation, i.e. the uncorrelated structure in a comprehensive way. Subsequent to the estimation of the correlation is the remaining orthogonal variation, i.e. uncorrelated data, divided into uncorrelated structure and stochastic noise by the ,OPLS component'. Thus, it appears obvious that it is of interest to understand how the uncorrelated variation can influence the interpretation of the regression model. We have scrutinized three examples that pinpoint additional value from OPLS regarding the modelling of the orthogonal, i.e. uncorrelated, variation in regression mathematics. In agreement with the results, we conclude that uncorrelated variations do impact interpretations of regression analyses output and provides not only opportunities by OPLS but also an obligation for the user to maximize benefit from OPLS. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Criminal attitudes to violence: Development and preliminary validation of a scale for male prisonersAGGRESSIVE BEHAVIOR, Issue 6 2004Devon L.L. Polaschek Abstract Two studies report on the development and preliminary psychometric properties of a new scale measuring criminal attitudes to violence. In Study 1, the responses of a mixed sample of male prisoners were used to select 20 scale items from a larger pool. The final scale (the Criminal Attitudes to Violence Scale; CAVS) was designed so that it had a single-factor structure and was uncorrelated with a measure of social desirability bias. It demonstrated high internal reliability, and a strong relationship to a self-report measure of physical aggression. Significant differences were found in CAVS mean scores for various offence history comparisons, such as whether or not the offender was currently on sentence for a violent conviction. In the second study, most results from the first study were replicated with an independent sample of male prisoners. Further, compared to another scale measuring attitudes to aggression [the EXPAGG Instrumental subscale; Archer and Haigh, 1997b], the CAVS was a better predictor of general attitudes to crime. Mean CAVS scores were again significantly higher for current violent offenders than those on sentence for other types of offences. Lastly, the CAVS was moderately predictive of estimated risk of reconviction and re-imprisonment. Overall these results suggest that this scale measures the construct of attitudes to criminal violence, which partially overlaps two other constructs: attitudes to aggression and attitudes to crime. Aggr. Behav. 30:484,503, 2004. © 2004 Wiley-Liss, Inc. [source] Rainfall effects on rare annual plantsJOURNAL OF ECOLOGY, Issue 4 2008Jonathan M. Levine Summary 1Variation in climate is predicted to increase over much of the planet this century. Forecasting species persistence with climate change thus requires understanding of how populations respond to climate variability, and the mechanisms underlying this response. Variable rainfall is well known to drive fluctuations in annual plant populations, yet the degree to which population response is driven by between-year variation in germination cueing, water limitation or competitive suppression is poorly understood. 2We used demographic monitoring and population models to examine how three seed banking, rare annual plants of the California Channel Islands respond to natural variation in precipitation and their competitive environments. Island plants are particularly threatened by climate change because their current ranges are unlikely to overlap regions that are climatically favourable in the future. 3Species showed 9 to 100-fold between-year variation in plant density over the 5,12 years of censusing, including a severe drought and a wet El Niño year. During the drought, population sizes were low for all species. However, even in non-drought years, population sizes and per capita growth rates showed considerable temporal variation, variation that was uncorrelated with total rainfall. These population fluctuations were instead correlated with the temperature after the first major storm event of the season, a germination cue for annual plants. 4Temporal variation in the density of the focal species was uncorrelated with the total vegetative cover in the surrounding community, suggesting that variation in competitive environments does not strongly determine population fluctuations. At the same time, the uncorrelated responses of the focal species and their competitors to environmental variation may favour persistence via the storage effect. 5Population growth rate analyses suggested differential endangerment of the focal annuals. Elasticity analyses and life table response experiments indicated that variation in germination has the same potential as the seeds produced per germinant to drive variation in population growth rates, but only the former was clearly related to rainfall. 6Synthesis. Our work suggests that future changes in the timing and temperatures associated with the first major rains, acting through germination, may more strongly affect population persistence than changes in season-long rainfall. [source] Generalized least-squares parameter estimation from multiequation implicit modelsAICHE JOURNAL, Issue 10 2003Simon L. Marshall Maximum likelihood fit of nonlinear, implicit, multiple-response models to data containing normally distributed random errors can be carried out by a combination of the Gauss-Newton generalized nonlinear least-square algorithm first described by Britt and Luecke in 1973, with a Fletcher-Reeves conjugate gradient search for initial parameter estimates. The convergence of the algorithm is further improved by adding a step-limiting procedure that ensures a reduction in the objective function for each iteration. Multiple-equation regression methods appropriate to the solution of explicit fixed-regressor models are derived from this general treatment as special cases. These include weighted nonlinear least squares (where the covariance matrix of the response is known), and uniformly weighted nonlinear least squares (where the responses are uncorrelated and characterized by a single common variance). Alternative methods for fixed-regressor fits of explicit multiequation models with an unknown covariance matrix of the responses are also considered. The moment-matrix determinant criterion appropriate in such situations is also efficiently minimized by use of the conjugate-gradient algorithm, which is considerably less sensitive to the accuracy of the initial parameter estimate than the more usual Gauss-Newton methods. The performance of the new algorithm for models defined by one, two, and three implicit functional constraints per point is illustrated by random-regressor fits of isothermal p,X and p,X,Y vapor,liquid equilibrium data, and ternary liquid,liquid equilibrium data, respectively. [source] Design for model parameter uncertainty using nonlinear confidence regionsAICHE JOURNAL, Issue 8 2001William C. Rooney An accurate method presented accounts for uncertain model parameters in nonlinear process optimization problems. The model representation is considered in terms of algebraic equations. Uncertain quantity parameters are often discretized into a number of finite values that are then used in multiperiod optimization problems. These discrete values usually range between some lower and upper bound that can be derived from individual confidence intervals. Frequently, more than one uncertain parameter is estimated at a time from a single set of experiments. Thus, using simple lower and upper bounds to describe these parameters may not be accurate, since it assumes the parameters are uncorrelated. In 1999 Rooney and Biegler showed the importance of including parameter correlation in design problems by using elliptical joint confidence regions to describe the correlation among the uncertain model parameters. In chemical engineering systems, however, the parameter estimation problem is often highly nonlinear, and the elliptical confidence regions derived from these problems may not be accurate enough to capture the actual model parameter uncertainty. In this work, the description of model parameter uncertainty is improved by using confidence regions derived from the likelihood ratio test. It captures the nonlinearities efficiently and accurately in the parameter estimation problem. Several examples solved show the importance of accurately capturing the actual model parameter uncertainty at the design stage. [source] Intraspecific variation and population structure of the German cockroach, Blattella germanica, revealed with RFLP analysis of the non-transcribed spacer region of ribosomal DNAMEDICAL AND VETERINARY ENTOMOLOGY, Issue 2 2007D. V. MUKHA Abstract Little information is available on genetic variation within and between populations of pest cockroaches. In this study, intraspecific HindIII polymorphism was investigated in the German cockroach, Blattella germanica (Linnaeus) (Dictyoptera, Blattaria: Blattellidae), using restriction fragment length polymorphisms (RFLP) of the non-transcribed spacer (NTS) region of ribosomal DNA (rDNA). Individual male insects were collected from infestations at three different pig farms. Each population was characterized by HindIII restriction fragment frequencies and haplotype (a particular X-chromosome pattern) frequencies. The inheritance of the X-chromosome HindIII rDNA patterns over 12 generations (3 years) follows Mendelian patterns, and the stability of this polymorphic marker indicates infrequent genetic recombination of variable sites. Although pairwise genetic distance measures were uncorrelated with geographical distance, the pattern of genetic differentiation of the three cockroach populations suggests that human-mediated transport of cockroaches is an important force in shaping the population genetic structure of cockroach infestations, at least at the regional scale of 10,100 km. Sequence variation in the ribosomal NTS is a useful marker, and RFLP of rDNA is a simple, robust and reproducible technique for differentiating recently diverged cockroach populations. [source] Fecundity selection predicts Bergmann's rule in syngnathid fishesMOLECULAR ECOLOGY, Issue 6 2009ANTHONY B. WILSON Abstract The study of latitudinal increases in organismal body size (Bergmann's rule) predates even Darwin's evolutionary theory. While research has long concentrated on identifying general evolutionary explanations for this phenomenon, recent work suggests that different factors operating on local evolutionary timescales may be the cause of this widespread trend. Bergmann's rule explains body size variation in a diversity of warm-blooded organisms and there is increasing evidence that Bergmann's rule is also widespread in ectotherms. Bergmann's rule acts differentially in species of the Syngnathidae, a family of teleost fishes noted for extreme adaptations for male parental care. While variation in body size of polygamous Syngnathus pipefish is consistent with Bergmann's rule, body size is uncorrelated with latitude in monogamous Hippocampus seahorses. A study of populations of Syngnathus leptorhynchus along a natural latitudinal and thermal gradient indicates that increases in body size with latitude maintain the potential reproductive rate of males despite significant decreases in ambient temperatures. Polygyny is necessary in order to maximize male reproductive success in S. leptorhynchus, suggesting a possible a link between fecundity selection and Bergmann's rule in this species. [source] Geographical variation of genetic and phenotypic traits in the Mexican sailfin mollies, Poecilia velifera and P. petenensisMOLECULAR ECOLOGY, Issue 9 2008S. J. HANKISON Abstract Comparing the patterns of population divergence using both neutral genetic and phenotypic traits provides an opportunity to examine the relative importance of evolutionary mechanisms in shaping population differences. We used microsatellite markers to examine population genetic structure in the Mexican sailfin mollies Poecilia velifera and P. petenensis. We compared patterns of genetic structure and divergence to that in two types of phenotypic traits: morphological characters and mating behaviours. Populations within each species were genetically distinct, and conformed to a model of isolation by distance, with populations within different geographical regions being more genetically similar to one another than were populations from different regions. Bayesian clustering and barrier analyses provided additional support for population separation, especially between geographical regions. In contrast, none of the phenotypic traits showed any type of geographical pattern, and population divergence in these traits was uncorrelated with that found in neutral markers. There was also a weaker pattern of regional differences among geographical regions compared to neutral genetic divergence. These results suggest that while divergence in neutral traits is likely a product of population history and genetic drift, phenotypic divergence is governed by different mechanisms, such as natural and sexual selection, and arises at spatial scales independent from those of neutral markers. [source] | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||