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Unemployment Rate (unemployment + rate)
Kinds of Unemployment Rate Selected AbstractsCOPING WITH UNCERTAINTY: HISTORICAL AND REAL-TIME ESTIMATES OF THE NATURAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATE AND THE UK MONETARY POLICY*THE MANCHESTER SCHOOL, Issue 4 2009GEORGE CHOULIARAKIS The paper derives and compares historical and real-time estimates of the UK natural unemployment rate and shows that real-time estimates are fraught with noise and should be treated with scepticism. A counterfactual exercise shows that, for most of the 1990s, the Bank of England tracked changes in the natural rate relatively successfully, albeit with some recognition lag which, at times, might have led to excessively cautious policy. A careful scrutiny of the minutes of the monetary policy committee meetings reveals that such ,cautiousness' should be taken as evidence of awareness of the real-time informational limitations that monetary policy is facing. [source] Volatility, Stabilization and Union Wage-setting: The Effects of Monetary Policy on the ,Natural' Unemployment RateECONOMIC NOTES, Issue 1 2002Luigi Bonatti In a unionized economy with nominal-wage contracts, the ,natural' (rational-expectations equilibrium) employment level is not invariant with respect to the stabilization rule followed by the monetary authority. This is because alternative monetary policies change the variance of the inflation rate (price level) relatively to the variance of some measure of economic activity (employment level), thereby influencing the trade-off desired by union members between the real wage and the probability of employment. Indeed, a more volatile employment level induces the (risk-neutral) union members to prefer a higher expected real wage. (J.E.L: E5, J5). [source] On the Effects of Wage Pressure on the Unemployment Rate and Capital ShareGERMAN ECONOMIC REVIEW, Issue 4 2006Takashi Ohno Wage pressure; increasing returns to scale; unemployment; capital share Abstract. The purpose of this paper is to understand the behaviour of the capital share and the unemployment rate in Europe over the past quarter of a century. We consider a model with monopolistic competition, increasing returns and an imperfect labour market, assuming that the elasticity between capital and labour is less than unity. Previous works have generally assumed constant returns to scale. Our results offer an important conclusion, namely that increased wage pressure will increase the unemployment rate and the capital share even though the latter initially decreases, which fits the stylized facts about the studied economies. [source] Convergence in West German Regional Unemployment RatesGERMAN ECONOMIC REVIEW, Issue 4 2007Christian Bayer Stochastic convergence; unemployment; structural break; unit root Abstract. Differences in regional unemployment rates are often used to describe regional economic inequality. This paper asks whether changes in regional unemployment differences in West Germany are persistent over time. Understanding the persistency of regional unemployment differences helps us to assess how effective regional policy can be. While univariate tests suggest that changes in regional unemployment differences are persistent in West Germany, more powerful panel tests lend some support to the hypothesis that regional unemployment rates converge. However, these tests reveal a moderate speed of convergence at best. Because there is a structural break following the second oil crisis, we also use tests that allow for such a break. This provides evidence for both convergence and quick adjustment to an equilibrium distribution of regional unemployment rates that is, however, subject to a structural break. [source] A Dynamic Model for the Cross-sectional Distribution of Unemployment RatesLABOUR, Issue 1 2002Fariba Hashemi This paper proposes a model to describe the continuous time-evolution of density of the cross-sectional distribution of unemployment rates. The model is founded on the theory of analytical diffusion processes. The steady-state distribution as well as the dynamic behaviour of the model are analytically derived. Parameters in the resulting analytical expressions are then fitted to US regional data. The empirical portion of the paper illustrates the usefulness of modeling the temporal evolution of the cross-sectional distribution of unemployment rate, rather than simply attending to equilibrium implications of the process. [source] Overview and Perspectives of Employment in People with EpilepsyEPILEPSIA, Issue 2005Hanneke M. De Boer Summary:, Even though it is now the viewpoint of the majority of professionals working in epilepsy care that most people with epilepsy should and can perform on the labor market as does anybody else, research tells a different story. Most figures concerning employment rates of people with epilepsy indicate that they do not perform as well on the labor market as others do. Although both research figures and research groups vary, generally unemployment rates are higher for people with epilepsy than for the general population. Early studies showed that the situation for people with epilepsy was rather grim. Later studies showed similar outcomes. Unemployment rates vary between groups and countries. Research shows that being employed is an important ingredient of the quality of life of people with epilepsy. The World Health Organization also recognizes the importance of employment as a part of social health, and therefore, improving the quality of life. It is important to know the perspectives on the labor market for people with epilepsy and what the possible problems are. I describe a Dutch research project and give an overview of the findings concerning the employment and consequent employability of people with epilepsy and questions pertaining to employment and epilepsy. Possible interventions [i.e., public education and employment programs for people with epilepsy with the aim to improve the (re)integration of people with epilepsy into the labor market, thus improving the quality of life of (potential) employees with epilepsy], are described extensively. [source] Young People of Migrant Origin in SwedenINTERNATIONAL MIGRATION REVIEW, Issue 4 2003Charles Westin This article surveys immigration during the second part of the twentieth century with the aim of determining the origins of the immigrant population and the socioeconomic position of the second generation. It focuses on migration from Turkey from the 1960s onward. Originally, migration from Turkey was within the framework of labor recruitment. These migrants were predominantly ethnic Turks of rural origin. A second wave of migrants from Turkey was composed of Syriani/Assyrians, a Christian minority from eastern Turkey seeking asylum in the 1970s on the grounds of religious persecution. Since the 1980s, the main intake of migrants from Turkey has been Kurds seeking protection on the grounds of political persecution. Immigration of ethnic Turks and Syriani/Assyrians is restricted to family reunification and family formation; the numbers are low. Kurds, on the other hand, are accepted both on the grounds of refugee claims and family reunification/family formation. The article looks at conditions of growing up in Sweden, with a particular focus on education, mother-tongue classes and instruction in Swedish. Second-generation youth distinguish themselves by an overrepresentation among dropouts from school, but also by an overrepresentation among those who do well academically in comparison with native Swedes. This applies to second-generation youth with family roots in Turkey. Though very few under the age of 18 hold regular employment, the article also discusses the prospects of entering the labor market, based on information from the regular labor market surveys. Unemployment rates are consistently higher for second-generation migrants than for native-born Swedish youth. The article closes with a discussion about the developing multicultural society in Sweden and the niches that second-generation youth tend to occupy. [source] Housing Wealth and UK ConsumptionECONOMIC OUTLOOK, Issue 4 2006Article first published online: 13 NOV 200 There is widespread disagreement about the role of housing wealth in explaining consumption. However, much of the empirical literature is marred by poor controls for the common drivers both of house prices and consumption, such as income, income growth expectations, interest rates, credit supply conditions, other assets and indicators of income uncertainty (e.g. changes in the unemployment rate). For instance, while the easing of credit supply conditions is usually followed by a house price boom, failure to control for the direct effect of credit liberalisation on consumption can over-estimate the effect of housing wealth or collateral on consumption. This paper (Janine Aron, John Muellbauer and Anthony Murphyi, October 2006) estimates an empirical model for UK consumption from 1972 to 2005, grounded in theory, and with more complete empirical controls than hitherto used. [source] Labour market institutions and income inequalityECONOMIC POLICY, Issue 56 2008Daniele Checchi SUMMARY Institutions and inequality Labour market institutions are a crucial determinant of wage inequality, the wage share in aggregate income, and the unemployment rate. Since these variables affect, in turn, the distribution of income across households, the question arises of whether stronger labour market institutions have an impact on income inequality. Institutions can in principle have conflicting effects. For example, a higher unemployment benefit tends to increase the wage share, which in turn reduces inequality, but it also increases the unemployment rate thus making the distribution of income more unequal. This paper examines what is the overall impact of labour market institutions on household income inequality. The evidence indicates that stronger institutions are associated with lower income inequality, but in some cases also with higher rates of unemployment. We explore the magnitude of this trade-off, and quantify the changes in inequality and unemployment that we would observe if a common labour standard were imposed on members of the European Union. , Daniele Checchi and Cecilia García-Peñalosa [source] European unemployment: the evolution of facts and ideasECONOMIC POLICY, Issue 45 2006Olivier Blanchard SUMMARY European unemployment In the 1970s, European unemployment started increasing. It increased further in the 1980s, to reach a plateau in the 1990s. It is still high today, although the average unemployment rate hides a high degree of heterogeneity across countries. The focus of researchers and policy makers was initially on the role of shocks. As unemployment remained high, the focus has progressively shifted to institutions. This paper reviews the interaction of facts and theories, and gives a tentative assessment of what we know and what we still do not know. , Olivier Blanchard [source] Dynamic Models in Space and TimeGEOGRAPHICAL ANALYSIS, Issue 2 2001J. Paul Elhorst This paper presents a first-order autoregressive distributed lag model in both space and time. It is shown that this model encompasses a wide series of simpler models frequently used in the analysis of space-time data as well as models that better fit the data and have never been used before. A framework is developed to determine which model is the most likely candidate to study space-time data. As an application, the relationship between the labor force participation rate and the unemployment rate is estimated using regional data of Germany, France, and the United Kingdom derived from Eurostat, 1983,1993. [source] On the Effects of Wage Pressure on the Unemployment Rate and Capital ShareGERMAN ECONOMIC REVIEW, Issue 4 2006Takashi Ohno Wage pressure; increasing returns to scale; unemployment; capital share Abstract. The purpose of this paper is to understand the behaviour of the capital share and the unemployment rate in Europe over the past quarter of a century. We consider a model with monopolistic competition, increasing returns and an imperfect labour market, assuming that the elasticity between capital and labour is less than unity. Previous works have generally assumed constant returns to scale. Our results offer an important conclusion, namely that increased wage pressure will increase the unemployment rate and the capital share even though the latter initially decreases, which fits the stylized facts about the studied economies. [source] Innovative Governance and Development in the New Ireland: Social Partnership and the Integrated ApproachGOVERNANCE, Issue 1 2004J. D. House Since the mid-1980s, the economy of the Republic of Ireland has displayed a remarkable turnaround. Its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has grown at a faster rate than any developed country in the world. The government's deficit has been cut severely and the debt-to-GDP ration sharply reduced. Average incomes have risen significantly, and the unemployment rate reduced dramatically. This article documents these changes. Its main purpose, however, is to provide a plausible explanation for the "Irish miracle." While many factors have been important,support for the Economic Union's regional development programs, a favorable tax structure, locational and language advantages for attracting multinational corporations, strong education and training programs,these factors in themselves do not explain the emergence of the "Celtic tiger." They were in place before the mid-1980s when Ireland was suffering from a fiscal, economic, and political crisis. Instead, the article argues, it was the creative and innovative response of Irish leaders in government, industry, and labor movement and community organizations to the crisis, and the subsequent institutionalization of this response in a new form of governance, that has been the catalyst for the Irish success story. Based on the thorough background research of the Economic and Social Research Council, a farsighted group of leaders developed a strategic plan in 1987 that provided a blueprint for constructive economic and social change. This was then formally instituted for wage restraint on the part of labor in return for income tax and social supposed provisions by government. Irish social Partnership is modeled to some extent on Northern European corporatism. The article reviews corporatism as an early form of innovative governance, using classical corporatism in Sweden and competitive corporatism in the Netherlands to illustrate how this approach has evolved over the years. Dutch economic success in recent years is due in part to its new form of corporatism that has helped it become globally competitive. It is argued, however, that Irish social partnership goes beyond continental corporatism in several important ways. It is more inclusive, covering a large array of social interests; it is more strategic, with a well-articulated integrated approach to social and economic development that is self-corrective and articulated in a new national agreement every three years; and it is more firmly institutionalized in both government and nongovernment agencies in the country. Social partnership and the integrated approach have become part of the culture of the new Ireland. This innovative form of governance underlies the Irish turnaround and augurs well for the future. It can also serve as a model, with appropriate modification tailor-made to each case, for other jurisdictions hoping to emulate Ireland's success. [source] AN ON-THE-JOB SEARCH MODEL OF CRIME, INEQUALITY, AND UNEMPLOYMENT*INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW, Issue 3 2004Kenneth Burdett We extend simple search models of crime, unemployment, and inequality to incorporate on-the-job search. This is valuable because, although simple models are useful, on-the-job search models are more interesting theoretically and more relevant empirically. We characterize the wage distribution, unemployment rate, and crime rate theoretically, and use quantitative methods to illustrate key results. For example, we find that increasing the unemployment insurance replacement rate from 53 to 65 percent increases unemployment and crime rates from 10 and 2.7 percent to 14 and 5.2 percent. We show multiple equilibria arise for some fairly reasonable parameters; in one case, unemployment can be 6 or 23 percent, and crime 0 or 10 percent, depending on the equilibrium. [source] Unemployment insurance and the business cycle*INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW, Issue 3 2003Laura Brown An equilibrium model is developed to study the interaction of the business cycle, unemployment insurance (UI), and the labor market for young men in Canada. The model combines optimal job offer, layoff, and recall decisions within a numerically solved and restricted Bayesian,Nash equilibrium. We consider the long-run implications of changes made to unemployment insurance in Canada during the 1990s. The changes lead to equilibrium increases in average rates of unemployment, layoffs, and recalls. Eliminating UI lowers the equilibrium unemployment rate and average observed earnings. UI policy affects the timing of cycles of endogenous outcomes relative to the productivity cycle. [source] An Empirical Analysis of Inflation in OECD CountriesINTERNATIONAL FINANCE, Issue 1 2004Jane Ihrig During the 1990s, many OECD countries had declining rates of inflation while their unemployment rates were also falling, something that on the surface seemed at odds with the Phillips curve relationship between inflation and unemployment. For the USA, these seemingly contradictory developments have been reconciled in terms of two factors: (1) an acceleration in productivity and (2) structural changes in labour markets that lowered the natural unemployment rate (NAIRU). Here we ask whether comparable forces were at work in 19 other industrial countries. We find that productivity advancements were the main structural factor reducing inflation only in the USA. In other industrial countries, persistent labour-market slack was the main factor exerting downward pressure on inflation. This persistence stemmed, in part, from structural reforms that lowered the NAIRU while the unemployment rate was declining. Ireland, New Zealand and Norway were three countries where labour-market reforms helped to push inflation down dramatically. [source] What sustains fiscal consolidations in emerging market countries?INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FINANCE & ECONOMICS, Issue 4 2005Sanjeev Gupta Abstract This paper examines the factors affecting the persistence of fiscal consolidation in 25 emerging market countries during 1980,2001. It proposes a new approach for defining spells of fiscal consolidation. The results indicate that the probability of ending a fiscal adjustment is affected by the legacy of previous fiscal failures, the size of the deficit, the composition of spending and level of total revenues. There is also some evidence that the initial debt stock, exchange rate developments, inflation and the unemployment rate have an impact on the persistence of adjustments. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Stepping from Illegality to Legality and Advancing towards Integration: The Case of Immigrants in Greece,INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION REVIEW, Issue 4 2005Nicholas P. Glytsos This paper highlights how the social and economic situation of immigrants changes after their formal legalization and discusses what they nave to go through for their complete integration. Legalization can hardly solve the problem of immigrant employment, nor can it pull all immigrants out of the underground labor market and integrate them into the Greek economy ana society. The process towards complete integration is painful and involves a series of successive phases of various durations. During this period, apart from economic conditions, various institutional and cultural factors can hinder or delay integration. With respect to economic integration, immigrants seem to fare rather well. Their official unemployment rate is only slightly higher than the Greek unemployment rate, the two rates converging over time. This suggests increasing relative opportunities for immigrant employment, precarious or stable as it might be. Immigrant jobs come as a result of their flexible adjustment to the needs of the labor market - official or underground - compared to the inflexibility in the supply of Greek workers, due to labor mismatches and relatively high reservation wages. Wages of immigrants are generally lower, but are approaching the wages of their Greek counterparts. Educated immigrants much more than educated Greeks are forced by the circumstances to exercise jobs not measuring up to their qualifications. [source] Bayesian counterfactual analysis of the sources of the great moderationJOURNAL OF APPLIED ECONOMETRICS, Issue 2 2008Chang-Jin Kim We use counterfactual experiments to investigate the sources of the large volatility reduction in US real GDP growth in the 1980s. Contrary to an existing literature that conducts counterfactual experiments based on classical estimation and point estimates, we consider Bayesian analysis that provides a straightforward measure of estimation uncertainty for the counterfactual quantity of interest. Using Blanchard and Quah's (1989) structural VAR model of output growth and the unemployment rate, we find strong statistical support for the idea that a counterfactual change in the size of structural shocks alone, with no corresponding change in the propagation of these shocks, would have produced the same overall volatility reduction as what actually occurred. Looking deeper, we find evidence that a counterfactual change in the size of aggregate supply shocks alone would have generated a larger volatility reduction than a counterfactual change in the size of aggregate demand shocks alone. We show that these results are consistent with a standard monetary VAR, for which counterfactual analysis also suggests the importance of shocks in generating the volatility reduction, but with the counterfactual change in monetary shocks alone generating a small reduction in volatility. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Socio-economic distance and spatial patterns in unemploymentJOURNAL OF APPLIED ECONOMETRICS, Issue 4 2002Timothy G. Conley This paper examines the spatial patterns of unemployment in Chicago between 1980 and 1990. We study unemployment clustering with respect to different social and economic distance metrics that reflect the structure of agents' social networks. Specifically, we use physical distance, travel time, and differences in ethnic and occupational distribution between locations. Our goal is to determine whether our estimates of spatial dependence are consistent with models in which agents' employment status is affected by information exchanged locally within their social networks. We present non-parametric estimates of correlation across Census tracts as a function of each distance metric as well as pairs of metrics, both for unemployment rate itself and after conditioning on a set of tract characteristics. Our results indicate that there is a strong positive and statistically significant degree of spatial dependence in the distribution of raw unemployment rates, for all our metrics. However, once we condition on a set of covariates, most of the spatial autocorrelation is eliminated, with the exception of physical and occupational distance. Racial and ethnic composition variables are the single most important factor in explaining the observed correlation patterns. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] The non-linear dynamics of output and unemployment in the U.S.JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECONOMETRICS, Issue 4 2001Filippo Altissimo This paper studies the joint dynamics of U.S. output and unemployment rate in a non-linear VAR model. The non-linearity is introduced through a feedback variable that endogenously augments the output lags of the VAR in recessionary phases. Sufficient conditions for the ergodicity of the model, potentially applying to a larger class of threshold models, are provided. The linear specification is rejected in favour of our threshold VAR. However, in the estimation the feedback is found to be statistically significant only on unemployment, while it transmits to output through its cross-correlation. This feedback effect from recessions generates important asymmetries in the propagation of shocks, a possible key to interpret the divergence in the measures of persistence in the literature. The regime-dependent persistence also explains the finding that the feedback from recession exerts a positive effect on the long-run growth rate of the economy, an empirical validation of the Schumpeterian macroeconomic theories. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Unemployment and aggression: the moderating role of self-awareness on the effect of unemployment on aggressionAGGRESSIVE BEHAVIOR, Issue 1 2008Peter Fischer Abstract In February 2005, the unemployment rate in Germany surpassed the 10% mark. Derived from the revised version of the frustration,aggression hypothesis [Berkowitz, 1989], the present studies investigated the association between unemployment and aggression, as well as the moderating role of the self in this context. Because previous research on unemployment and aggression has been plagued by the cause-and-effect issue, the present research employed both an experimental and a correlational field approach. Three studies revealed that participants who expected to be unemployed after their degree (Studies 1 and 3), or who were currently unemployed (Study 2), reported stronger aggressive inclinations than participants who expected not to be unemployed or who were not unemployed at the time of data collection. However, this aggression-eliciting effect of expected or real unemployment only occurred for participants with low self-awareness. Participants who could actualize their self prior to reporting on aggression were not differently affected by different expectations or states of unemployment. Aggr. Behav. 34:34,45, 2008. © 2007 Wiley-Liss, Inc. [source] Reconciling the Wage Curve and the Phillips CurveJOURNAL OF ECONOMIC SURVEYS, Issue 5 2005Víctor M. Montuenga-Gómez Abstract., The wage curve is the negative relationship that links wage levels to the unemployment rate. It fits accurately with modern non-competitive labour-market models, but goes against a Phillips-curve modelling, because the latter ties wage growth to the unemployment rate. In this article, we present a comprehensive review of these non-competitive models, highlighting recent contributions that try to eliminate the possible ,gap' that exists between the concepts of the wage curve, on the one hand, and the Phillips curve, on the other. [source] Evaluation and economic impact analysis of different treatment options for ankle distortions in occupational accidentsJOURNAL OF EVALUATION IN CLINICAL PRACTICE, Issue 5 2010Amaryllis Audenaert Grad Eng PhD Abstract Rationale, aims and objectives, Appropriate use of diagnostic and treatment modalities are essential for rational use of resources. The aim of this study is to evaluate the use of diagnostic modalities and different treatment options and their economic impacts following an acute ankle distortion resulting from an occupational accident. We evaluated the type-of-treatment impact on the victims' course of recovery as well as its impact on the associated accident costs. Research was carried out in Belgium. Methods, An ankle distortion victims' database consisting of 200 cases of (Belgian) occupational accidents during the period 2005,2007 was analysed. Results, Patients who were prescribed immobilization or the use of adjuvant support or physical therapy (118 cases) were not employed during a period of 37 days on average, with a mean total cost of 3140.14 Euros caused by the ankle sprain. Patients without any adjuvant therapy (82 cases) were characterized by an unemployment rate of 15 days on average, and a total cost of 1077.86 Euros. Cast immobilization, although its application is not supported by evidence-based literature, was still applied in 36% of the population studied and resulted in the longest average absence of work of 42 days with an obvious significant increase in medical and total costs. Conclusions, Our results show a high rate of inappropriate use of cast immobilizations for ankle distortions. From an economic point of view and for the same clinical endpoint (being full resumption of the occupational activities), simple conventional treatment, consisting of rest, ice, compression and elevation at diagnosis with allowance of early weight bearing in the further clinical course, leads to the quickest full resumption of activities in combination with the lowest medical costs, if compared with any other kind of treatment. [source] Unemployment variation over the business cycles: a comparison of forecasting modelsJOURNAL OF FORECASTING, Issue 7 2004Saeed Moshiri Abstract Asymmetry has been well documented in the business cycle literature. The asymmetric business cycle suggests that major macroeconomic series, such as a country's unemployment rate, are non-linear and, therefore, the use of linear models to explain their behaviour and forecast their future values may not be appropriate. Many researchers have focused on providing evidence for the non-linearity in the unemployment series. Only recently have there been some developments in applying non-linear models to estimate and forecast unemployment rates. A major concern of non-linear modelling is the model specification problem; it is very hard to test all possible non-linear specifications, and to select the most appropriate specification for a particular model. Artificial neural network (ANN) models provide a solution to the difficulty of forecasting unemployment over the asymmetric business cycle. ANN models are non-linear, do not rely upon the classical regression assumptions, are capable of learning the structure of all kinds of patterns in a data set with a specified degree of accuracy, and can then use this structure to forecast future values of the data. In this paper, we apply two ANN models, a back-propagation model and a generalized regression neural network model to estimate and forecast post-war aggregate unemployment rates in the USA, Canada, UK, France and Japan. We compare the out-of-sample forecast results obtained by the ANN models with those obtained by several linear and non-linear times series models currently used in the literature. It is shown that the artificial neural network models are able to forecast the unemployment series as well as, and in some cases better than, the other univariate econometrics time series models in our test. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Welfare transitions in the 1990s: The economy, welfare policy, and the EITCJOURNAL OF POLICY ANALYSIS AND MANAGEMENT, Issue 4 2004Jeffrey GroggerArticle first published online: 25 AUG 200 The rapid decline in the welfare caseload remains a subject of keen interest to both policymakers and researchers. In this paper, I use data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation spanning the period from 1986 to 1999 to analyze how the economy, welfare reform, the earned income tax credit (EITC), and other factors influence welfare entries and exits, which in turn affect the caseload. I find that the decline in the welfare caseload resulted from both increases in exits and decreases in entries. Entries were most significantly affected by the economy, the decline in the real value of welfare benefits, and the expansion of the EITC. Exits were most significantly affected by the economy and federal welfare reform. Federal reform had its greatest effects on longer-term spells of the type generally experienced by more disadvantaged recipients. Some out-of-sample predictions help explain the otherwise puzzling observation that, despite substantial increases in the unemployment rate since 2000, caseloads have remained roughly constant. © 2004 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management [source] TheConvergence of the Italian Regions and Unemployment: Theory and EvidenceJOURNAL OF REGIONAL SCIENCE, Issue 3 2002Gaetano Carmeci We explore the links between the halt of the convergence process of Italian regions at the beginning of the 1970s and the increase in regional unemployment dispersion. We consider a neoclassical exogenous growth model with an imperfect labor market and show that during the transitional dynamics the imperfections of the labor market negatively influence the output growth rate. In particular, the model implies that centralized bargaining is likely to set a national minimum wage that is too high with respect to the labor productivity of the less developed regions, resulting in a negative impact on their per capita output growth. We test the implications of the model on a regional panel data set using the GMM framework. Both our market distortion measure and the unemployment rate are found to significantly lower the growth rate of per capita output. [source] Inter-temporal and Inter-industry Effects of Population Ageing: A General Equilibrium Assessment for CanadaLABOUR, Issue 4 2009Nabil Annabi In addition to the impact of slower labour force growth, the model captures the shift in sectoral composition of final demand of older individuals. The simulation results indicate that the growth in real GDP per capita could decline by nearly one percentage point between 2006 and 2050. The results also suggest that the equilibrium unemployment rate is likely to decline by more than two percentage points in the long run. However, the impact varies significantly at the occupational level. [source] Matching Inefficiencies, Regional Disparities, and UnemploymentLABOUR, Issue 3 2009Sanna-Mari Hynninen Our results suggest that there would be a substantial decline in aggregate unemployment if (i) all local labour offices operated with full efficiency or (ii) they shared the same structure of job seekers and vacant jobs as the most favourable office. In the former case an increase in hirings would lower the average unemployment rate by 2.4 percentage points. In the latter case the decrease would be 1.4 percentage points. Further, we find that fixed effects are positively correlated with both a more favourable structure and higher efficiency. This suggests that the fixed effects may capture some part of time-invariant features in the structure and inefficiency. Thus, the role of structural factors and inefficiency in regional unemployment disparities may be higher than estimated. [source] Employment Protection and the Incidence of Unemployment: A Theoretical FrameworkLABOUR, Issue 1 2004Anita Guelfi To this end, a standard matching model with employment protection has been extended to allow for the existence of two types of workers differing from each other only in the probability of becoming less productive while holding a job. In working out the model it turns out that in equilibrium workers with a relatively higher probability of becoming less productive face both a higher turnover and a longer duration of unemployment. Therefore, employment protection here raises the unemployment rate of this worker category, a result which looks consistent with consolidated evidence but contrasts with standard theoretical results. [source] | |||||||||||||||||||