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Tunnel Vision (tunnel + vision)

Distribution by Scientific Domains

Business, Economics, Finance and Accounting	28%

Selected Abstracts

Examining ,Tunnel Vision' in Australian PPPs: Rationales, Rhetoric, Risks and ,Rogues'

AUSTRALIAN JOURNAL OF PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION, Issue 2010
Judy Johnston
This article examines Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) in Australia, and particularly those associated with major economic infrastructure development. Methodologically, the article relies on a qualitative case study approach, based on research initially supported by the Australian Research Council (Johnston and Gudergan 2005-2007) and continuing. Of special interest is the failure of the Cross-City Tunnel tollway in Sydney which is used to illustrate critical issues. The article finds that while Australian governments enjoy an international reputation for PPP success, there remains a number of fundamental pitfalls that need to be addressed if future PPPs are to uphold the public interest. Problems created through the unpredictability, especially for business, of the political environment and arrangements in which PPPs take place appear to be particularly significant. [source]

Reforming pensions: Principles, analytical errors and policy directions

INTERNATIONAL SOCIAL SECURITY REVIEW, Issue 2 2009
Nicholas Barr
Abstract This article, sets out a series of principles for pension design rooted in economic theory: pension systems have multiple objectives, analysis should consider the pension system as a whole, analysis should be framed in a second-best context, different systems share risks differently, and systems have different effects by generation and by gender. That discussion is reinforced by identification of a series of widespread analytical errors , errors that appear in World Bank work, but by no means only in World Bank work: tunnel vision, improper use of first-best analysis, improper use of steady-state analysis, incomplete analysis of implicit pension debt, incomplete analysis of the impact of funding (including excessive focus on financial flows, failure to consider how funding is generated, and improper focus on the type of asset in trust funds), and ignoring distributional effects. The second part of the article considers implications for policy: there is no single best pension design, earlier retirement does little or nothing to reduce unemployment, unsustainable pension promises need to be addressed directly, a move from pay-as-you-go towards funding in a mandatory system may or may not be welfare improving, and implementation matters , policy design that exceeds a country's capacity to implement it is bad policy design. We illustrate the ranges of designs of pension systems that fit the fiscal and institutional capacity constraints typical at different levels of economic development. The potential gains from simplicity imply that a country capable of implementing an administratively demanding plan does not necessarily gain from doing so. New Zealand has a simple pension system through choice, not constraint. [source]

Effects of prior interpretation on situation assessment in crime analysis

JOURNAL OF BEHAVIORAL DECISION MAKING, Issue 5 2007
José H. Kerstholt
Abstract A main threat to objective information processing in crime investigation teams is the tendency to focus on one particular interpretation only. To prevent such tunnel vision or ,groupthink', an investigation team can call in a crime analyst, and ask him or her to give a fresh and independent account of the evidence at hand. However, before they examine the case, crime analysts are often already aware of the scenario currently favoured by the team. In our experiment, we investigated whether such prior knowledge can jeopardise the independence of the analyst's advice. Thirty-eight professional crime analysts were asked to generate causal scenarios for two different cases and to indicate how the team should continue their investigation. Before beginning their analysis, half of the crime analysts received a realistic prior interpretation, such as might have been constructed by an investigation team. The results show that when given a prior interpretation, both experienced and inexperienced analysts considered the scenario suggested therein as more likely, and made recommendations for further investigation accordingly. We explain these findings by suggesting that analysts temporarily adopted the perspective of the investigation team, and that such temporary commitment by itself increased confidence in the hypothesis at hand (Koehler, 1991). This research supports previous research on the impact of prior theory on judgement, and extends it to an important real world domain where mistakes can have serious consequences. We recommend that in cases where the crime analyst is asked to give an objective assessment, he or she should not be informed about the interpretation of the investigation team until after the analysis has been conducted. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source]

Let's find the evidence: an analogue study of confirmation bias in criminal investigations

JOURNAL OF INVESTIGATIVE PSYCHOLOGY AND OFFENDER PROFILING, Issue 3 2010
Eric Rassin
Abstract People involved in criminal proceedings (e.g. police officers, district attorneys, judges, and jury members) may run the risk of developing confirmation bias, or tunnel vision. That is, these parties may readily become convinced that the suspect is guilty, and may then no longer be open to alternative scenarios in which the suspect is actually innocent. This may be reflected in a preference for guilt-confirming investigation endeavours, as opposed to investigations that are aimed at confirming, or even excluding, alternative scenarios. In three studies, participants read a case file, and were subsequently instructed to select additional police investigations. Some of these additional endeavours were guilt-confirming (i.e. incriminating), whereas others were disconfirming (i.e. exonerating). Results suggest that additional investigation search was guided by an initial assessment of the suspect's guilt (Study 1). Furthermore, participants' tendency to select incriminating investigations increased with increased crime severity, and with the strength of the evidence present in the case file. Finally, the selection of incriminating investigations was associated with conviction rates (Study 3). However, in general, participants did not favour incriminating endeavours. That is, in the three studies, the percentages of selected incriminating endeavours did hardly or not exceed 50%. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source]

Extended wearing trial of Trifield lens device for ,tunnel vision'

OPHTHALMIC AND PHYSIOLOGICAL OPTICS, Issue 3 2010
Russell L. Woods
Abstract Severe visual field constriction (tunnel vision) impairs the ability to navigate and walk safely. We evaluated Trifield glasses as a mobility rehabilitation device for tunnel vision in an extended wearing trial. Twelve patients with tunnel vision (5,22° wide) due to retinitis pigmentosa or choroideremia participated in the 5-visit wearing trial. To expand the horizontal visual field, one spectacle lens was fitted with two apex-to-apex prisms that vertically bisected the pupil on primary gaze. This provides visual field expansion at the expense of visual confusion (two objects with the same visual direction). Patients were asked to wear these spectacles as much as possible for the duration of the wearing trial (median 8, range 6,60 weeks). Clinical success (continued wear, indicating perceived overall benefit), visual field expansion, perceived direction and perceived visual ability were measured. Of 12 patients, nine chose to continue wearing the Trifield glasses at the end of the wearing trial. Of those nine patients, at long-term follow-up (35,78 weeks), three reported still wearing the Trifield glasses. Visual field expansion (median 18, range 9,38°) was demonstrated for all patients. No patient demonstrated adaptation to the change in visual direction produced by the Trifield glasses (prisms). For reported difficulty with obstacles, some differences between successful and non-successful wearers were found. Trifield glasses provided reported benefits in obstacle avoidance to 7 of the 12 patients completing the wearing trial. Crowded environments were particularly difficult for most wearers. Possible reasons for long-term discontinuation and lack of adaptation to perceived direction are discussed. [source]

Supervised classification and tunnel vision

APPLIED STOCHASTIC MODELS IN BUSINESS AND INDUSTRY, Issue 2 2005
David J. Hand
Abstract In recent decades many highly sophisticated methods have been developed for supervised classification. These developments involve complex models requiring complicated iterative parameter estimation schemes, and can achieve unprecedented performance in terms of misclassification rate. However, in focusing efforts on the single performance criterion of misclassification rate, researchers have abstracted the problem beyond the bounds of practical usefulness, to the extent that the supposed performance improvements are irrelevant in comparison with other factors influencing performance. Examples of such factors are given. An illustration is provided of a new method which, for the particular problem of credit scoring, improves a relevant measure of classification performance while maintaining interpretability. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source]