Home About us Contact
|
Home About us Contact | ||
|
|
||
Trade Balance (trade + balance)
Kinds of Trade Balance Selected AbstractsADJUSTED ESTIMATES OF UNITED STATES,CHINA BILATERAL TRADE BALANCES: AN UPDATEPACIFIC ECONOMIC REVIEW, Issue 3 2006K. C. Fung In this paper, four adjustments are made to the export and import data of the two governments: (i) freight along side (f.a.s.)-free on board (f.o.b.) and cost, insurance and freight (c.i.f.)-f.o.b. conversions; (ii) re-exports through Hong Kong (and elsewhere); (iii) re-export markups; and (iv) trade in services. After adjustments, our best estimate for the 2005 bilateral trade balance is $US170.7 billion, in China's favour, which is much larger than the official Chinese balance of $US114.2 billion but also much smaller than the official US balance of $US201.6 billion. [source] Trade Balance and Exchange Rate: Unit Roots, Co-integration and Long Memory in the US and the UKECONOMIC NOTES, Issue 1 2008Luis A. Gil-Alana This paper deals with the relationship between the balance of trade and the exchange rate in the US/UK case. Many authors have studied this issue for many countries, but despite the intensive research, there is still no agreement about the effectiveness of currency devaluation to increase a country's balance of trade. We first analyse the relationship between the two variables using unit roots and co-integration methods, and the results are ambiguous. We try a new approach based on fractional integration. The unit root hypothesis is rejected in case of the trade balance in favour of smaller orders of integration, while this hypothesis is not rejected for the exchange rate. Thus, the two series do not possess the same order of integration. We sort this problem out by taking the exchange rate as an exogenous variable, and including it in a regression model where the residuals might follow a fractionally integrated model. [source] The Effect of Exchange Rate on Bilateral Trade Balance: New Evidence from Malaysia and ThailandASIAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL, Issue 3 2001Ahmad Zubaidi BaharumshahArticle first published online: 18 DEC 200 This paper attempts to identify the major economic factors that influence the bilateral trade balances of Malaysia and Thailand with the US and Japan. To this end, an unrestricted VAR model was estimated using quarterly frequency data from 1980: I to 1996: IV. The Johansen results indicate a stable long-run relation between trade and three macro variables: exchange rate, domestic income and foreign income. The main findings of this paper are: (i) the real effective exchange rate is an important variable in the trade balance equation and devaluation improves the trade balances of both economies in the long-run; (ii) the other important variables that determine trade balance include domestic and foreign incomes; (iii) the results indicate no J-curve effect and causal run from exchange rate to trade balance, (iv) the real effects of devaluation are distributed over a period of eight to nine quarters. [source] Trade Balance: Numbers Can be DeceivingCHINA AND WORLD ECONOMY, Issue 3 2006Yuefen Li F15; F23; O11 Abstract Trade disputes have become more prevalent and acute in recent years. Almost all center on bilateral trade balance and/or market access of certain merchandise or services. However, since at least the mid 1980s, affiliate sales have become a more direct and more powerful form of market access than the traditional cross-border commercial transactions for developed countries, whereas developing countries still rely predominantly on traditional trade. The importance of the international production supply chain is increasing with a bias against downstream producers. The current data collection and compilation system of trade balance can not reflect these changes in the world economic environment. It overstates exports of developing countries and understates their imports. None of the countries in the world can illustrate the weakness of the conventional system better than China. (Edited by Zhinan Zhang) [source] Food trade balances and unit values: What can they reveal about price competition?AGRIBUSINESS : AN INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL, Issue 1 2002Mark J. Gehlhar Price competition is a fundamental assumption in modeling trade. Empirical applications often use unit values as proxies for price. This is a problem if unit values cannot explain trade flows consistent with the price competition assumption. The paper determines whether this condition exists in food product trade. Trade balances by product are used to indicate successful competition in trade. Export and import unit values are used to determine if competition is dominated by price or nonprice competition. Trade flows are then categorized in four ways: successful price competition, unsuccessful price competition, successful nonprice competition, and unsuccessful nonprice competition. This categorization is applied to 372 food products using the Standard International Trade Classification. Nearly 40% of U.S. food exports could be characterized as dominated by nonprice competition. In those instances, we contend that unit values are not valid proxies for price, thereby limiting their usefulness in traditional import demand estimation and trade policy simulation models. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. [source] Trade Balance and Exchange Rate: Unit Roots, Co-integration and Long Memory in the US and the UKECONOMIC NOTES, Issue 1 2008Luis A. Gil-Alana This paper deals with the relationship between the balance of trade and the exchange rate in the US/UK case. Many authors have studied this issue for many countries, but despite the intensive research, there is still no agreement about the effectiveness of currency devaluation to increase a country's balance of trade. We first analyse the relationship between the two variables using unit roots and co-integration methods, and the results are ambiguous. We try a new approach based on fractional integration. The unit root hypothesis is rejected in case of the trade balance in favour of smaller orders of integration, while this hypothesis is not rejected for the exchange rate. Thus, the two series do not possess the same order of integration. We sort this problem out by taking the exchange rate as an exogenous variable, and including it in a regression model where the residuals might follow a fractionally integrated model. [source] Fixed versus Flexible Exchange Rates: Evidence from Developing CountriesECONOMICA, Issue 295 2007MATHIAS HOFFMANN This paper investigates the hypothesis that in a small open economy flexible exchange rates act as a ,shock absorber' and mitigate the effects of external shocks more effectively than fixed exchange rate regimes. Using a sample of 42 developing countries, the paper assesses whether the responses of real GDP, the trade balance and the real exchange rate to world output and world real interest rate shocks differ across exchange rate regimes. The paper shows that there are significant differences in the variability of macroeconomic aggregates under fixed and flexible exchange rate regimes. [source] The Transmission of US Monetary Policy to the Euro Area,INTERNATIONAL FINANCE, Issue 1 2010Stefano Neri This paper studies how changes in the federal funds rate by the US Federal Reserve affect the eurozone economy. In our analysis, the international transmission mechanism works through movements in the exchange rate, commodity prices, short-term interest rates and the trade balance. We find that an increase in the federal funds rate causes the euro to immediately depreciate, while commodity, and in particular oil, prices decline sharply, reflecting a decline in demand. Lower commodity prices stimulate household consumption in the short run, and the higher aggregate demand induces an expansion of eurozone economic activity. Our results show that the effects of changes in the federal funds rate on commodity prices are greater than previously found in the literature. Our analysis also assesses the likely effects on the eurozone economy of the European Central Bank's (ECB's) own responses to macroeconomic developments. We find that the expansionary effect of lower commodity prices and a depreciated euro on the eurozone economy is partially offset by the ECB increasing short-term nominal interest rates to curb inflationary pressures in an expanding economy. This result highlights the importance of commodity prices and the euro,dollar exchange rate as inputs into European monetary policy-making, as seen, for example, in the Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections used by the Governing Council to assess the risks to price stability. [source] Expansionary Fiscal Shocks and the US Trade Deficit,INTERNATIONAL FINANCE, Issue 3 2005Christopher J. Erceg In this paper, we use a dynamic general equilibrium model of an open economy to assess the quantitative effects of fiscal shocks on the trade balance in the United States. We examine the effects of two alternative fiscal shocks: a rise in government consumption, and a reduction in the labour income tax rate. Our salient finding is that a fiscal deficit has a relatively small effect on the US trade balance, irrespective of whether the source is a spending increase or tax cut. In our benchmark calibration, we find that a rise in the fiscal deficit of 1 percentage point of gross domestic product (GDP) induces the trade balance to deteriorate by 0.2 percentage point of GDP or less. Noticeably larger effects are only likely to be elicited under implausibly high values of the short-run trade price elasticity, or of the share of liquidity-constrained households in the economy. From a policy perspective, our analysis suggests that even reducing the current US fiscal deficit (of 3% of GDP) to zero would be unlikely to narrow the burgeoning US trade deficit significantly. [source] In-Flight-Melted Soda-Lime-Silica Glass by RF Induction Thermal PlasmaJOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN CERAMIC SOCIETY, Issue 12 2008Fuji Funabiki Granulated raw materials with a particle size of 20,80 ,m were prepared from a slurry of Na2CO3, CaCO3, and SiO2 (quartz) by the spray-dry method, and injected with carrier gas into a radio-frequency induction thermal plasma. Spherical particles 5,60 ,m in size were obtained and analyzed. Thermo-gravimetric analysis and X-ray diffraction analysis showed that during the short flight of the order of milliseconds, all carbonates were decomposed and >95% quartz was reacted into a noncrystalline state. Glass transition was clearly observed by differential thermal analysis. Increase of the carrier gas from 3 to 6 L/min led to a decrease in the volatilization ratio of Na2O from 46% to 18% with a slight decrease of the reaction ratio of quartz in trade balance. Electron probe microanalysis showed that the volatilization could be attributed to an excess heating of small particles <30 ,m, and suppression by the increase of carrier gas. [source] The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investments: Sensitivity Analyses of Cross-Country RegressionsKYKLOS INTERNATIONAL REVIEW OF SOCIAL SCIENCES, Issue 1 2001Avik Chakrabarti A vast empirical literature has used ad hoc linear cross-country regressions to search for the determinants of FDI. The literature is extensive and controversial. Can policy-makers use this body of research to learn anything that can help them stimulate FDI? The author uses Extreme Bound Analysis (EBA) to examine if any of the conclusions from the existing studies is robust to small changes in the conditioning information set. The EBA upholds the robustness of the correlation between FDI and market-size, as measured by per-capita GDP, but indicates that the relation between FDI and many of the controversial variables (namely, tax, wage, openness, exchange rate, tariff, growth, and trade balance)bare highly sensitive to small alterations in the conditioning information set. The author also studies the distribution of the estimated coefficients of the controversial explanatory variables to rank them in order of their likelihood of their being correlated with FDI. [source] An Extension of the Structural Change Model to International Economic RelationsMETROECONOMICA, Issue 4 2003Ricardo Azevedo Araujo ABSTRACT In this paper Pasinetti's model of structural economic dynamics (1981) is extended to consider international economic relations. Conditions for full employment, full expenditure of income and equilibrium of the trade balance are established for an open economy that requires capital goods to produce final commodities. Analytical results concerning the benefits from free trade and international learning are formally studied. In addition, static and dynamic aspects of the ,principle of comparative cost advantage' are analysed considering the determinants of the specialization level. [source] CHINA'S EQUILIBRIUM REAL EXCHANGE RATE: A COUNTERFACTUAL ANALYSISPACIFIC ECONOMIC REVIEW, Issue 1 2008Rod Tyers The absence of secondary indices of import and export prices necessitates their construction from trade data. Some undervaluation is suggested in the lead-up to and during the financial crisis, due in part to an extraordinary accumulation of foreign reserves following exchange rate integration in 1994. If, instead, China had run a more typical trade balance prior to the crisis its real effective exchange rate would have been higher by about a tenth. [source] ADJUSTED ESTIMATES OF UNITED STATES,CHINA BILATERAL TRADE BALANCES: AN UPDATEPACIFIC ECONOMIC REVIEW, Issue 3 2006K. C. Fung In this paper, four adjustments are made to the export and import data of the two governments: (i) freight along side (f.a.s.)-free on board (f.o.b.) and cost, insurance and freight (c.i.f.)-f.o.b. conversions; (ii) re-exports through Hong Kong (and elsewhere); (iii) re-export markups; and (iv) trade in services. After adjustments, our best estimate for the 2005 bilateral trade balance is $US170.7 billion, in China's favour, which is much larger than the official Chinese balance of $US114.2 billion but also much smaller than the official US balance of $US201.6 billion. [source] The Effect of Exchange Rate on Bilateral Trade Balance: New Evidence from Malaysia and ThailandASIAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL, Issue 3 2001Ahmad Zubaidi BaharumshahArticle first published online: 18 DEC 200 This paper attempts to identify the major economic factors that influence the bilateral trade balances of Malaysia and Thailand with the US and Japan. To this end, an unrestricted VAR model was estimated using quarterly frequency data from 1980: I to 1996: IV. The Johansen results indicate a stable long-run relation between trade and three macro variables: exchange rate, domestic income and foreign income. The main findings of this paper are: (i) the real effective exchange rate is an important variable in the trade balance equation and devaluation improves the trade balances of both economies in the long-run; (ii) the other important variables that determine trade balance include domestic and foreign incomes; (iii) the results indicate no J-curve effect and causal run from exchange rate to trade balance, (iv) the real effects of devaluation are distributed over a period of eight to nine quarters. [source] THE J CURVE: CHINA VERSUS HER TRADING PARTNERSBULLETIN OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH, Issue 4 2006Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee F31 ABSTRACT The short-run effects of currency depreciation are said to be different from its long-run effects. In the short run, the trade balance deteriorates and improvement comes after some time; hence, the J-curve phenomenon. Previous studies that tested the response of the trade balance to exchange rate changes in China employed aggregate trade data and provided mixed results. Indeed, most of them concluded that real depreciation has no long-run impact on the Chinese trade balance. In this paper, we disaggregate the data by country and using recent advances in time series modelling estimate a trade balance model between China and her 13 major trading partners. We show that real depreciation of the Chinese currency has a favourable impact on her trade balance with a few partners, especially the USA. Not much support is found for the J-curve hypothesis. [source] Trade Balance: Numbers Can be DeceivingCHINA AND WORLD ECONOMY, Issue 3 2006Yuefen Li F15; F23; O11 Abstract Trade disputes have become more prevalent and acute in recent years. Almost all center on bilateral trade balance and/or market access of certain merchandise or services. However, since at least the mid 1980s, affiliate sales have become a more direct and more powerful form of market access than the traditional cross-border commercial transactions for developed countries, whereas developing countries still rely predominantly on traditional trade. The importance of the international production supply chain is increasing with a bias against downstream producers. The current data collection and compilation system of trade balance can not reflect these changes in the world economic environment. It overstates exports of developing countries and understates their imports. None of the countries in the world can illustrate the weakness of the conventional system better than China. (Edited by Zhinan Zhang) [source] Food trade balances and unit values: What can they reveal about price competition?AGRIBUSINESS : AN INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL, Issue 1 2002Mark J. Gehlhar Price competition is a fundamental assumption in modeling trade. Empirical applications often use unit values as proxies for price. This is a problem if unit values cannot explain trade flows consistent with the price competition assumption. The paper determines whether this condition exists in food product trade. Trade balances by product are used to indicate successful competition in trade. Export and import unit values are used to determine if competition is dominated by price or nonprice competition. Trade flows are then categorized in four ways: successful price competition, unsuccessful price competition, successful nonprice competition, and unsuccessful nonprice competition. This categorization is applied to 372 food products using the Standard International Trade Classification. Nearly 40% of U.S. food exports could be characterized as dominated by nonprice competition. In those instances, we contend that unit values are not valid proxies for price, thereby limiting their usefulness in traditional import demand estimation and trade policy simulation models. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. [source] The Effect of Exchange Rate on Bilateral Trade Balance: New Evidence from Malaysia and ThailandASIAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL, Issue 3 2001Ahmad Zubaidi BaharumshahArticle first published online: 18 DEC 200 This paper attempts to identify the major economic factors that influence the bilateral trade balances of Malaysia and Thailand with the US and Japan. To this end, an unrestricted VAR model was estimated using quarterly frequency data from 1980: I to 1996: IV. The Johansen results indicate a stable long-run relation between trade and three macro variables: exchange rate, domestic income and foreign income. The main findings of this paper are: (i) the real effective exchange rate is an important variable in the trade balance equation and devaluation improves the trade balances of both economies in the long-run; (ii) the other important variables that determine trade balance include domestic and foreign incomes; (iii) the results indicate no J-curve effect and causal run from exchange rate to trade balance, (iv) the real effects of devaluation are distributed over a period of eight to nine quarters. [source] | ||||||||||