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Tropical Pacific SSTs (tropical + pacific_sst)
Selected AbstractsAtlantic air,sea interaction and seasonal predictabilityTHE QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, Issue 583 2002M. J. Rodwell Abstract We analyse patterns of North Atlantic air,sea interaction in observations and model output throughout the annual cycle with the dual aims of validating natural variability in climate models, and quantifying seasonal predictability of the atmosphere and of ocean surface temperatures. The Met Office's HadCM3 coupled ocean,atmosphere model is shown to represent well the atmospheric forcing of sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Atlantic region through the action of latent-heat fluxes. Winter ocean temperature anomalies in both observations and model appear to be preserved below the shallow summer mixed layer and to re-emerge in the following autumn. We find observational evidence from the last half of the twentieth century for SST forcing of the atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic region. Results validate our atmospheric model (HadAM2b) and confirm the levels of potential predictability of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) that have been found in recent modelling studies. We suggest that the ultimate correlation skill of a winter NAO hindcast in this period is in the range 0.45 to 0.63. Analysis of observational and atmospheric model data from the first half of the twentieth century identifies very little predictability of the winter NAO. We suggest that the change in seasonal predictability is genuine and may be related to the strength of decadal oscillations. The ocean,atmosphere model, which incorporates a different atmospheric component (HadAM3), fails to show a causal link between North Atlantic temperatures and the atmospheric circulation even during periods where low-frequency variability is as strong as in the recent observations. A brief observational investigation suggests that any implied predictability of the winter NAO based on a knowledge of South Atlantic SSTs depends on the existence of secular trends in the data. Tropical Pacific SSTs appear to influence the winter climate of the North Atlantic region, but not via trends in the NAO. © Crown copyright, 2002. [source] Lagged teleconnections between snow depth in northern Eurasia, rainfall in Southeast Asia and sea-surface temperatures over the tropical Pacific OceanINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 13 2001Hengchun Ye Abstract This study shows that above-(below-)normal winter snow depth over European Russia and corresponding below-(above-)normal snow depth over central Siberia is associated with reduced (increased) summer monsoon rainfall over southern and western India and eastern Pakistan, and above-(below-)normal sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) over the eastern and central tropical Pacific Ocean during the following winters. The connection is slightly stronger when snow depth over European Russia is above normal than below normal. These results are derived from an examination of 60 years (1936,1995) of winter snow depth data and SSTs, and 45 years (1951,1995) of summer precipitation records. The results of this study suggest that winter snow depth over the western rather than the eastern portion of Eurasia is critical to Southeast Asian summer monsoon rainfall and eastern tropical Pacific SSTs during the following seasons. Copyright © 2001 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Observed and SST-forced seasonal rainfall variability across tropical AmericaINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 12 2001Vincent Moron Abstract Three experiments starting from different initial conditions have been made with the ECHAM-4 atmospheric General Circulation Model (GCM) integrated at T30 resolution forced with the observed sea-surface temperature (SST) over the period 1960,1994. The tropical America modes of seasonal rainfall anomalies whose time variation is most accurately simulated by the GCM have been searched for using Singular Value Decomposition Analyses (SVDA) and Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) between observed and model fields. The leading modes revealed by SVDA and CCA are highly similar, even though the ordering of the modes showed some fluctuation. A first skilful rainfall anomaly mode has weights of the same sign almost everywhere in tropical America, except along the western coast and the sub-tropical margins. This mode appears in all of the four seasons assessed. A second major skilful mode is usually a bipolar north,south (N,S) rainfall anomaly pattern (clear in December,March, DJFM; March,May, MAM; and June,September, JJAS). A large portion of the skill of the first rainfall anomaly mode (same sign anomalies across tropical America except small patches along the western coast) is through variance that is in common with the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). In addition to forcing from the central/eastern tropical Pacific SST, there also appears a contribution from contrasting SST anomalies in the tropical Atlantic. This rainfall mode is usually a regional portion of a more large-scale mode encompassing at least the whole tropical zone (especially in DJFM, MAM and September,November, SON). Analysis of the relationship of this mode with GCM circulation features reveals that a rainfall deficit (respectively excedent) over the main rainbelt of the tropical America region is associated with strengthening (respectively weakening) of the sub-tropical westerly jet streams, a global warming (respectively cooling) of the tropical atmosphere, an anomalous divergence (respectively convergence) in the lower levels and an anomalous convergence (respectively divergence) in the upper levels over tropical America and in the region of the Atlantic Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Such global features are not so apparent for the dominant mode of JJAS, even though the correlations with El Niño,Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indicators (as SOI or NINO3 SST index) are as high as for the other seasons. The bipolar N,S rainfall anomaly mode in tropical America is mostly related to anomalous N,S gradient of SST anomalies in the tropical Atlantic. The atmospheric circulation anomalies emphasize changes in 850 hPa meridional winds in the tropical Atlantic. However, there is also interannual variance of this rainfall mode in both the model and observations that is unexplained by tropical Atlantic SSTs, but which is explained by central/eastern tropical Pacific SSTs and, potentially, SSTs from other tropical and extratropical areas. This is especially true in MAM. Some differences in the details of the model and observed teleconnection patterns are noted. Such differences can be used to statistically adjust the model simulations using the CCA or SVDA modes as basis patterns. Both statistical approaches have been applied and the results are consistent between the two. The increase of skill is stronger when temporal correlation (the pattern correlation) between the model and observed pattern is high (low) as for JJAS. The skill is moderate to high around the whole Amazon basin, but remains relatively low inside the Amazon basin, though reliability of the observations themselves may influence this result. Averaged over all the seasons, about 15,35% (35,55%) of the interannual grid-box (regional) seasonal rainfall variance is skilfully simulated from the observed SST forcing. Copyright © 2001 Royal Meteorological Society [source] A linear diagnosis of the coupled extratropical ocean,atmosphere system in the GFDL GCMATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE LETTERS, Issue 1 2000Dr Matthew Newman Diagnosing a coupled system with linear inverse modelling (LIM) can provide insight into the nature and strength of the coupling. This technique is applied to the cold season output of the GFDL GCM, forced by observed tropical Pacific SSTs and including a slab mixed layer ocean model elsewhere. It is found that extratropical SST anomalies act to enhance atmospheric thermal variability and diminish barotropic variability over the east Pacific in these GCM runs, in agreement with other theoretical and modelling studies. North-west Atlantic barotropic variability is also enhanced. However, all these feedbacks are very weak. LIM results also suggest that North Pacific extratropical SST anomalies in this model would rapidly decay without atmospheric forcing induced by tropical SST anomalies. Copyright © 2000 Royal Meteorological Society. [source] | ||||||||||