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Tropical Cyclones (tropical + cyclone)
Terms modified by Tropical Cyclones Selected AbstractsTHE STORM OF NOVEMBER 1826 IN THE CANARY ISLANDS: POSSIBLY A TROPICAL CYCLONE?GEOGRAFISKA ANNALER SERIES A: PHYSICAL GEOGRAPHY, Issue 3 2010JOSÉ BETHENCOURT-GONZÁLEZ ABSTRACT. This work analyses a storm that occurred in the Canary Islands early in November 1826. Through a study based on historical climate data, some of the adverse effects of the storm are described and some of the possible causes are discussed. The main goal of this work is to establish an approximate reconstruction of this historical event which will allow us to compare it to a recent meteorological event that had a great impact on the archipelago: "Tropical Storm Delta", in November 2005. Studying and reviewing the origin of the 1826 storm verifies the hypothesis that extremely violent perturbations have not only occurred in the Canaries on other occasions, but that these past events were also more intense and had more serious consequences than Delta. Therefore, the idea that other tropical perturbations have occurred in the region of the Canary Islands before Delta is presented. [source] Interannual and interdecadal variations of tropical cyclone activity in the South China SeaINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 6 2010Andy Zung-Ching Goh Abstract This study attempts to identify the factors affecting annual tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the South China Sea (SCS) using data during the period 1965,2005. The results indicate that the total number of TCs and number of TCs entering the SCS from the Western North Pacific are below normal in El Niño events but above normal during La Niña events. However, for TCs formed inside the SCS, the difference in numbers between the two phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is not as obvious. In addition, the positive phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) generally favours less TCs in all categories, while the negative PDO phase favours more. These results may be explained by the fact that the ENSO and the PDO affect TC behaviour through altering the conditions in the WNP to be favourable or unfavourable for TC genesis and movement into the SCS. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Effects of a tropical cyclone on the distribution of hatchery-reared black-spot tuskfish Choerodon schoenleinii determined by acoustic telemetryJOURNAL OF FISH BIOLOGY, Issue 3 2010Y. Kawabata The effects of a tropical cyclone on the distribution of hatchery-reared black-spot tuskfish Choerodon schoenleinii were examined using acoustic telemetry. Nine fish were released in Urasoko Bay, Ishigaki Island, Japan, in September 2006, and another nine were released in June to July 2007, before a cyclone's passing through the area in September 2007. Data for the fish released in 2006 were used as the cyclone-inexperienced group to compare their distribution pattern to that of the 2007 cyclone-experienced group. Both groups of fish were monitored for up to 150 days. Of the nine fish in each group, four (44%) and two (22%) were monitored for over 150 days in the cyclone-inexperienced and the cyclone-experienced groups, respectively. Three of the five fish that had settled in the monitoring area left the area within a few days of the cyclone event. To estimate the time of disappearance of the fish, maximum wind speed during a period of 7 days (indicating the occurrence and intensity of the tropical cyclone), fish size and release year were evaluated as explanatory variables using a Cox proportional hazards model with Akaike's information criterion. The best predictive model included the effect of maximum wind speed. One fish that left the monitoring area displayed movement patterns related to strong winds, suggesting that wind-associated strong currents swept the fish away. No relationships were found between the movement patterns of the other two fish and any physical environmental data. The daily detection periods of one of the two fish gradually decreased after the cyclone hit, and this fish eventually left the monitoring area within 3 days, suggesting that it shifted to a habitat outside the monitoring area. These results indicate that tropical cyclones have both direct and indirect effects on the distribution of hatchery-reared C. schoenleinii. [source] Barotropic instability in the tropical cyclone outer regionTHE QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, Issue 641 2009Jiayi Peng Abstract The growth of asymmetric perturbations and their interactions with the symmetric flow are investigated for wind profiles in a tropical cyclone with instability in its outer region. Three tangential wind profiles are examined: TC1, a strong barotropic instability profile in the outer region; TC2, a stable wind profile; and TC3, a weaker instability profile comparing to TC1 with a larger distance between the inner negative and the outer positive vorticity gradient centres. An eigenvalue analysis indicates that azimuthal wave-number two is the most unstable mode in both TC1 and TC3, with an e-folding time-scale of about 1 and 9 days, respectively. Numerical simulations using a linear barotropic model, with an initial asymmetry specified in the outer region, confirm the eigenvalue analysis. A mechanism is provided to explain the difference between simulations in TC1 and TC2. In both the stable and unstable case, an inner asymmetry is induced by the initial outer asymmetry acting on the symmetric vorticity gradient. Subsequently, the newly generated inner asymmetry feeds back positively to the outer asymmetry with the unstable profile. Because of this positive feedback, the inner and the outer asymmetries maintain an up-shear phase tilting, leading to a continuous energy transfer from the symmetric flow to the asymmetric perturbation. In the stable TC2, the inner asymmetry could not amplify the outer initial asymmetry as there is no basic-state radial vorticity gradient there. Also due to this feedback process, disturbances grow faster where the (absolute) basic-state vorticity gradients are large. Therefore, the position of an initial disturbance plays a minor role in determining the outcome of the system. Simulations with a nonlinear barotropic model and a primitive equation model further confirm the significant weakening of the maximum tangential wind due to the positive feedback process in TC1. Simulations for TC3 show a smaller change of the symmetric tangential wind, as expected. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society [source] What causes the extremely heavy rainfall in Taiwan during Typhoon Morakot (2009)?ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE LETTERS, Issue 1 2010Dr Xuyang Ge Abstract Despite its category-2 intensity only, Typhoon (tropical cyclone in the Western Pacific) Morakot produced a record-breaking rainfall in Taiwan. A cloud-resolving model is used to simulate this extreme rainfall event and understand the dynamic aspect under this event. Due to the interaction between Morakot and a monsoon system, a peripheral gale force monsoon surge appears to the south of Taiwan. The monsoon surge remains even in a sensitivity experiment in which Taiwan terrain is reduced. However, the rainfall amount in Taiwan is greatly reduced without high topography over Taiwan, suggesting the important role the local topography plays in producing heavy rainfall. The overall numerical results indicate that it is the interaction among the typhoon, monsoon system, and local terrain that led to this extreme event. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Resilience of arboreal folivores to habitat damage by a severe tropical cycloneAUSTRAL ECOLOGY, Issue 4 2008ROBYN F. WILSON Abstract Severe tropical cyclones greatly modify habitat of arboreal folivores by destroying forest canopy, reducing structure and complexity and defoliating remaining trees. We hypothesized that forest modification following severe Cyclone Larry would stress arboreal folivores of the Family Pseudocheiridae and be reflected in increased home ranges and a decrease in body condition. We conducted 19 pre-cyclone and 24 post-cyclone spotlighting surveys at a site with severe cyclone damage, and 18 post-cyclone surveys at a site with minor damage. We detected a greater number of lemuroid, Hemibelideus lemuroides and green, Pseudochirops archeri, ringtail possums as these possums remained in the severely damaged canopy and forest edge. In contrast, Herbert River ringtail possums, Pseudochirulus herbertensis, were detected in smaller numbers. We radio-tracked eight P. herbertensis before the cyclone, following two of these and nine new animals after the category 4 cyclone. No significant post-cyclone alteration in home range area or span was recorded in data pooled across the two sites or in limited post-cyclone data at the severely disturbed site, but a greater variability in home range was observed after cyclone (pooled across sites: 1.72 ± 0.77 ha; 197 ± 47 m) than before the cyclone (1.35 ± 0.30 ha; 196 ± 23 m). In contrast, pooled pre- and post-cyclone home range areas and spans were larger at the severely-disturbed site (2.08 ± 0.56 ha; 231 ± 32 m) than at the site with minor damage (0.68 ± 0.11 ha; 114 ± 25 m), suggesting resources were more widely spread at the former site. Post-cyclone home ranges were also larger at the severely damaged site (severe: 3.33 ± 1.36 ha, n = 3; minor: 0.52 ± 0.07 ha, n = 4). Condition of P. herbertensis (mass/tail length) did not differ significantly pre- and post-cyclone or between less and severely disturbed sites. These results and observations of breeding after cyclone suggest that possum populations may be resilient to severe cyclone damage under the relatively wet conditions experienced post-Cyclone Larry. [source] Resource Accessibility and Vulnerability in Andhra Pradesh: Caste and Non-Caste InfluencesDEVELOPMENT AND CHANGE, Issue 4 2007Lee Bosher ABSTRACT Coastal Andhra Pradesh in southern India is prone to tropical cyclones. Access to key resources can reduce the vulnerability of the local population to both large-scale disasters, such as cyclones, and to the sort of small-scale crises that affect their everyday lives. This article uses primary fieldwork to present a resource accessibility vulnerability index for over 300 respondents. The index indicates that caste is the key factor in determining who has assets, who can access public facilities, who has political connections and who has supportive social networks. The ,lower' castes (which tend to be the poorest) are marginalized to the extent that they lack access to assets, public facilities and opportunities to improve their plight. However, the research also indicates that the poor and powerless lower castes are able to utilize informal social networks to bolster their resilience, typically by women's participation with CBOs and NGOs. Nevertheless it is doubtful whether this extra social capital counterbalances the overall results which show that , despite decades of counteractions by government , caste remains a dominant variable affecting the vulnerability of the people of coastal Andhra Pradesh to the hazards that they face. [source] Effects of earthquake and cyclone sequencing on landsliding and fluvial sediment transfer in a mountain catchmentEARTH SURFACE PROCESSES AND LANDFORMS, Issue 9 2008Guan-Wei Lin Abstract Patterns and rates of landsliding and fluvial sediment transfer in mountain catchments are determined by the strength and location of rain storms and earthquakes, and by the sequence in which they occur. To explore this notion, landslides caused by three tropical cyclones and a very large earthquake have been mapped in the Chenyoulan catchment in the Taiwan Central Range, where water and sediment discharges and rock strengths are well known. Prior to the MW 7·6 Chi-Chi earthquake in 1999, storm-driven landslide rates were modest. Landslides occurred primarily low within the landscape in shallow slopes, reworking older colluvial material. The Chi-Chi earthquake caused wide-spread landsliding in the steepest bedrock slopes high within the catchment due to topographic focusing of incoming seismic waves. After the earthquake landslide rates remained elevated, landslide patterns closely tracking the distribution of coseismic landslides. These patterns have not been strongly affected by rock strength. Sediment loads of the Chenyoulan River have been limited by supply from hillslopes. Prior to the Chi-Chi earthquake, the erosion budget was dominated by one exceptionally large flood, with anomalously high sediment concentrations, caused by typhoon Herb in 1996. Sediment concentrations were much higher than normal in intermediate size floods during the first 5 years after the earthquake, giving high sediment yields. In 2005, sediment concentrations had decreased to values prevalent before 1999. The hillslope response to the Chi-Chi earthquake has been much stronger than the five-fold increase of fluvial sediment loads and concentrations, but since the earthquake, hillslope sediment sources have become increasingly disconnected from the channel system, with 90 per cent of landslides not reaching into channels. Downslope advection of landslide debris associated with the Chi-Chi earthquake is driven by the impact of tropical cyclones, but occurs on a time-scale longer than this study. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Modeling tropical cyclone intensity with quantile regressionINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 10 2009Thomas H. Jagger Abstract Wind speeds from tropical cyclones (TCs) occurring near the USA are modeled with climate variables (covariates) using quantile regression. The influences of Atlantic sea-surface temperature (SST), the Pacific El Niño, and the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) on near-coastal TC intensity are in the direction anticipated from previous studies using Poisson regression on cyclone counts and are, in general, strongest for higher intensity quantiles. The influence of solar activity, a new covariate, peaks near the median intensity level, but the relationship switches sign for the highest quantiles. An advantage of the quantile regression approach over a traditional parametric extreme value model is that it allows easier interpretation of model coefficients (parameters) with respect to changes to the covariates since coefficients vary as a function of quantile. It is proven mathematically that parameters of the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) for extreme events can be used to estimate regression coefficients for the extreme quantiles. The mathematical relationship is demonstrated empirically using the subset of TC intensities exceeding 96 kt (49 m/s). Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Implications of tropical cyclone power dissipation indexINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 6 2008Liguang Wu Abstract Upward trends in the power dissipation index (PDI) in the North Atlantic (NA) and western North Pacific (WNP) basins and increases in the number and proportion of intense hurricanes (categories 4 and 5) in all tropical cyclone basins have been reported in recent studies. These changes have been arguably viewed as evidence of the responses of tropical cyclone intensity to the increasing tropical sea surface temperature (SST) over the past 30 years. Using the historical best-track datasets from 1975 to 2004, how the annual frequency, lifetime and intensity of tropical cyclones contribute to the changes in the annual accumulated PDI is examined. As the SST warmed in the NA, WNP and eastern North Pacific (ENP) basins over the past 30 years, the annual accumulated PDI trended upward significantly only in the NA basin, where the decreased vertical wind shear and warming ocean surface may have allowed more storms to form and to form earlier or dissipate later, increasing the lifetime and annual frequency of tropical cyclones. The moderate increase in the annual accumulated PDI in the WNP basin was primarily due to the significant increase in the average intensity. There are no significant trends in the accumulated PDI, average intensity, average lifetime, and annual frequency in the ENP basin. Copyright © 2007 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Effects of a tropical cyclone on the distribution of hatchery-reared black-spot tuskfish Choerodon schoenleinii determined by acoustic telemetryJOURNAL OF FISH BIOLOGY, Issue 3 2010Y. Kawabata The effects of a tropical cyclone on the distribution of hatchery-reared black-spot tuskfish Choerodon schoenleinii were examined using acoustic telemetry. Nine fish were released in Urasoko Bay, Ishigaki Island, Japan, in September 2006, and another nine were released in June to July 2007, before a cyclone's passing through the area in September 2007. Data for the fish released in 2006 were used as the cyclone-inexperienced group to compare their distribution pattern to that of the 2007 cyclone-experienced group. Both groups of fish were monitored for up to 150 days. Of the nine fish in each group, four (44%) and two (22%) were monitored for over 150 days in the cyclone-inexperienced and the cyclone-experienced groups, respectively. Three of the five fish that had settled in the monitoring area left the area within a few days of the cyclone event. To estimate the time of disappearance of the fish, maximum wind speed during a period of 7 days (indicating the occurrence and intensity of the tropical cyclone), fish size and release year were evaluated as explanatory variables using a Cox proportional hazards model with Akaike's information criterion. The best predictive model included the effect of maximum wind speed. One fish that left the monitoring area displayed movement patterns related to strong winds, suggesting that wind-associated strong currents swept the fish away. No relationships were found between the movement patterns of the other two fish and any physical environmental data. The daily detection periods of one of the two fish gradually decreased after the cyclone hit, and this fish eventually left the monitoring area within 3 days, suggesting that it shifted to a habitat outside the monitoring area. These results indicate that tropical cyclones have both direct and indirect effects on the distribution of hatchery-reared C. schoenleinii. [source] Tropical storm impact in Central AmericaMETEOROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS, Issue 1 2006Sabino Palmieri Abstract In this study of tropical storm impacts in Central America, the relationship between physical variables (available in ,real time') and damage is explored, and a simple tool for early approximate evaluation of the impact is developed. Land track and energy dissipation appear as the most interesting parameters that modulate the hurricane impact. Because of the difficulty of attaching a monetary estimate to the damage caused in a large number of cases (as is required in a statistical approach), an ,Impact Index' based on the logarithm of casualties is introduced. Thereafter, within a subset of events in which damage in monetary terms is known, a rough link between damage and the Impact Index is derived. Shortly after a new event, as soon as land track and energy dissipation are known, either by means of an empirical equation or using a contour graph, the Impact Index may be determined. Another empirical equation allows a rough estimate of damage in monetary units, but because this estimate is based on a limited number of cases, it must be treated with caution. The methodology is tested for a small set of independent cases. Vulnerability to tropical cyclones depends not only on natural factors but also on sociopolitical conditions. A coupled sociological and environmental approach is believed to be the best way to improve the early impact estimate methodology. Copyright © 2006 Royal Meteorological Society. [source] Cloud systems leading to flood events in Europe: an overview and classificationMETEOROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS, Issue 3 2003Federico Porcú Over recent years most European countries have experienced destructive precipitation events, many of which have generated floods resulting in the loss of lives and economic damage. Rather surprisingly, Europe has no common database for flood events, which continue to be monitored by different national and/or local authorities, with different criteria. In the light of this situation, the main aim of the present work is to propose a classification scheme for a European-level flood database, in which severe flood episodes are related to meteorological conditions and mesoscale settings. The meteorological systems relating to the most severe events (22 events) over a five-year period (1992,1996) were analysed using Meteosat imagery and conventional meteorological data. Most of the observed events were related to extra tropical cyclone development. The results are discussed in terms of conceptual models currently used for extra tropical cyclones: the structure and dynamics of Atlantic cyclones can very often be interpreted in terms of well- known conceptual models, while characteristics of Mediterranean systems are not fully rendered by current descriptions. Our study underpins the need to improve the knowledge of Mediterranean systems, possibly introducing new conceptual models and/or refining the current ones. Copyright © 2003 Royal Meteorological Society [source] An analytical model for the rapid intensification of tropical cyclonesTHE QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, Issue 642 2009Chanh Q. Kieu Abstract The nonlinearity and complexity of the primitive equations have been key obstacles to our understanding of tropical cyclones (TCs), particularly in relation to the dynamical processes leading to their rapid intensification. In this study, an axisymmetric model, in which all nonlinear terms in the horizontal momentum equations are retained, is used to examine analytically the effects of organized deep convection on TC rapid intensification. By prescribing a vertical profile of the vertical motion with exponential growth in the core region, a class of exact time-dependent solutions for the primary circulations of TCs are obtained. The analytical solutions are shown to capture well many observed dynamical structures in both the core and outer regions and the rapid growth of TCs in terms of maximum winds and central pressure drops. The analytical solutions reveal that (1) the rotational flows in the inner-core region grow double-exponentially, and the central pressure drops occur at rates much faster than the rotational growth; (2) the amplification rates of the primary circulations differ profoundly from those of the secondary circulations; (3) the rotational flows tend to grow from the bottom upwards with the fastest growth occurring at the lowest levels; and (4) the TC growth rates depend critically on the vertical structure of tangential flows, with a faster rate for a lower-level peak rotation. The nonlinear dynamics are shown to play an important role in the rapid growth of TCs. It is demonstrated that the analytical solutions can also be used to construct dynamically consistent vortices for the initialization of TC models. Limitations and possible improvements of the analytical model are also discussed. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society [source] The dynamics of heat lows over flat terrainTHE QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, Issue 637 2008Thomas Spengler Abstract The numerical model for a heat low developed by Rácz and Smith is extended to include a representation of radiative heating and cooling. The model is run with a higher horizontal resolution than the original version and is used to investigate additional dynamical aspects of the structure and evolution of a heat low over a subcontinental- or continental-scale circular island surrounded by sea. Of particular interest is the diurnal and day-to-day evolution of the upper- and lower-level circulations and the degree of balance that exists in these. The heat low is surmounted by an anticyclone, the development of which is closely tied to the outflow branch of the sea breeze. The anticyclone has a much smaller diurnal variation than the heat low and, unlike the heat low is largely in balance, except in the region affected by the upward-propagating gravity wave induced by the inland-penetrating sea breeze. There is a strong analogy to certain aspects of tropical cyclones, which have a warm core, a shallow unbalanced boundary layer, and which are surmounted also by an anticyclone. Principles governing the absolute angular momentum budget are the same as those relating to the tropical cyclones and to the zonal-mean flow over Antarctica. Implications of these principles for obtaining a realistic steady state in long-term integrations of axisymmetric models are discussed. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Tropical-cyclone intensification and predictability in a minimal three-dimensional modelTHE QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, Issue 636 2008Seoleun Shin Abstract We investigate the amplification and predictability of tropical cyclones in the context of a minimal, three-dimensional numerical model. In the prototype problem for intensification, starting with a tropical storm strength vortex in a quiescent environment on an f -plane, the emergent flow in the inner region of the vortex becomes highly asymmetric and dominated by deep convective vortex structures, even though the problem as posed is essentially axisymmetric. The details of the intensification process, including the asymmetric structures that develop, are highly sensitive to small perturbations in the low-level moisture field at the initial time. This sensitivity is manifest in a significant spread in the intensity of vortices from an ensemble of calculations in which random moisture perturbations are added in the lowest model level. Similar experiments are carried out on a ,-plane and in the case where there is an anticyclonic shear flow at upper levels. The former set shows no significant difference from the f -plane calculations in the evolution of intensity, but the latter set shows a significantly weaker vortex, contrary to a broadly held hypothesis that upper-level outflow channels are favourable to intensification. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Tropical-cyclone intensification and predictability in three dimensionsTHE QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, Issue 632 2008Nguyen Van Sang Abstract We present numerical-model experiments to investigate the dynamics of tropical-cyclone amplification and its predictability in three dimensions. For the prototype amplification problem beginning with a weak-tropical-storm-strength vortex, the emergent flow becomes highly asymmetric and dominated by deep convective vortex structures, even though the problem as posed is essentially axisymmetric. The asymmetries that develop are highly sensitive to the boundary-layer moisture distribution. When a small random moisture perturbation is added in the boundary layer at the initial time, the pattern of evolution of the flow asymmetries is changed dramatically, and a non-negligible spread in the local and azimuthally-averaged intensity results. We conclude, first, that the flow on the convective scales exhibits a degree of randomness, and only those asymmetric features that survive in an ensemble average of many realizations can be regarded as robust; and secondly, that there is an intrinsic uncertainty in the prediction of maximum intensity using either maximum-wind or minimum-surface-pressure metrics. There are clear implications for the possibility of deterministic forecasts of the mesoscale structure of tropical cyclones, which may have a major impact on the intensity and on rapid intensity changes. Some other aspects of vortex structure are addressed also, including vortex-size parameters, and sensitivity to the inclusion of different physical processes or higher spatial resolution. We investigate also the analogous problem on a ,-plane, a prototype problem for tropical-cyclone motion. A new perspective on the putative role of the wind--evaporation feedback process for tropical-cyclone intensification is offered also. The results provide new insight into the fluid dynamics of the intensification process in three dimensions, and at the same time suggest limitations of deterministic prediction for the mesoscale structure. Larger-scale characteristics, such as the radius of gale-force winds and ,-gyres, are found to be less variable than their mesoscale counterparts. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Some dynamical aspects of tropical cyclone concentric eyewallsTHE QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, Issue 632 2008Christopher M. Rozoff Abstract The intensification of tropical cyclones is often interrupted by an eyewall replacement cycle, a process in which an outer eyewall forms, contracts, and replaces an inner eyewall. The radial distributions of inertial stability and diabatic heating change during such events, impacting the transverse circulation. To examine the effects of such changes, an analytical solution of the transverse circulation equation associated with a balanced vortex model is derived using a parameterization that distinguishes five radial regions subdividing the domain by each region's values of inertial stability and diabatic heating. These regions define the eye, inner eyewall, moat, outer eyewall, and far-field. In mature concentric eyewall situations, the solutions do not support the hypothesis that the inner eyewall collapses as a direct result of subsidence from the outer eyewall. However, the results suggest subsidence and warming temperatures in the moat are governed by enhanced inertial stability associated with a strengthening outer eyewall. The model solutions also illustrate how the diabatic heating in the inner eyewall, imbedded in a region of high inertial stability, induces larger temperature tendencies than the diabatic heating in the outer eyewall, which borders the far-field region of low inertial stability. Thus, as the inner eyewall dies, the storm temporarily loses its ability to produce an intense, localized warm region. This ability is restored during the contraction and intensification of the outer eyewall. These results provide a partial dynamical explanation of how an eyewall replacement cycle can act as a temporary brake on tropical cyclone intensification. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Issues in targeted observingTHE QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, Issue 613 2005(Invited paper for the Q. J. R. Meteorol. Abstract This paper summarizes successes and limitations of targeted observing field programmes starting from the Fronts and Atlantic Storm-Track Experiment in 1997 through recent programmes targeting winter storms and tropical cyclones. These field programmes have produced average reductions in short-range forecast errors of about 10 per cent over regional verification areas, and maximum forecast error reductions as large as 50 per cent in certain cases. The majority of targeting cases investigated so far involve sets of dropsondes and other observation data that provide partial coverage of target areas. The primary scientific challenges for targeting include the refinement of objective methods that can identify optimal times and locations for targeted observations, as well as identify the specific types of satellite and in situ measurements that are required for the improvement of numerical weather forecasts. The most advanced targeting procedures, at present, include: the ensemble transform Kalman Filter, Hessian singular vectors, and observation-space targeting using the adjoint of a variational data assimilation procedure. Targeted observing remains an active research topic in numerical weather prediction, with plans for continued refinement of objective targeting procedures, and field tests of new satellite and in situ observing systems. Copyright © 2005 Royal Meteorological Society [source] The extratropical transition of hurricane Irene (1999): A potential-vorticity perspectiveTHE QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, Issue 598 2004A. Agusti-panareda Abstract Extratropical transition (ET) of tropical cyclones is common in all ocean basins where tropical cyclones recurve polewards. After the tropical cyclone experiences ET, a rapid deepening can take place resulting in the development of a very large and deep extratropical cyclone. The ET of hurricane Irene (1999) was an example of such an ,explosive' ET. Irene formed in the Caribbean and experienced ET as it moved poleward, resulting in a low-pressure system which deepened 39 hPa in 24 hours (according to the Met Office analyses). The extent to which the hurricane was responsible for the explosive extratropical development has been determined by performing Met Office Unified Model forecasts from initial states with and without the hurricane. The circulation and temperature anomalies associated with the hurricane were removed from the initial state using potential-vorticity inversion. The moisture anomaly co-located with the hurricane core was also removed. The results show that an extratropical cyclogenesis event takes place regardless of the presence of the hurricane in the initial conditions. However, the hurricane makes a significant difference to the track and central mean-sea-level pressure evolution of the resulting extratropical cyclone. When Irene was present the track of the extratropical cyclone was more zonal and the cyclone deepening rate was twice as fast as when Irene was not present. These effects appear to be particularly associated with a negative potential-vorticity anomaly and enhanced divergent flow in the region of the upper-level outflow of the transforming hurricane rather than with the hurricane vortex. Results also show that the presence of the hurricane resulted in a significant downstream surface-low development in the eastern Atlantic. Copyright © 2004 Royal Meteorological Society. [source] Tropical Storm Gamma and the Mosquitia of eastern Honduras: a little-known story from the 2005 hurricane seasonAREA, Issue 4 2009David M Cochran Jr The 2005 Atlantic hurricane season was unprecedented in terms of storm activity in the United States, Mexico, Central America and Caribbean. Given the impacts of hurricanes Katrina and Rita, the Honduran Mosquitia sparked little attention despite being hit by two hurricanes and a tropical storm in 2005. This article recounts the history of these storms in the Afro-Caribbean community of Batalla, drawing from public weather advisories and testimony of local residents obtained through participatory research. We contextualise this local history with results from the first paleotempestological study undertaken in the Mosquitia to shed light on long-term risk of catastrophic storms in the region and to demonstrate the value of integrating these two research approaches. Our findings contribute to recent ethnographic research on hazards by describing how a coastal people understand and respond to tropical cyclones and how landscape change influences the vulnerability of a coastal area. Although residents have not witnessed a storm as intense as those documented in the paleotempestological record, their knowledge and perceptions show how tropical cyclones can be disasters while leaving behind no sedimentary records. The paleotempestological evidence, however, reminds us that catastrophic hurricanes have struck the Mosquitia in the past and will do so again in the future. Understanding the interactions between contemporary human perceptions and responses and long-term hurricane risk provides insight for emergency managers and local stakeholders to better prepare for such a catastrophic event. [source] Radiative cooling effect of Hurricane Florence in 2006 and precipitation of Typhoon Matsa in 2005ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE LETTERS, Issue 2 2009Quanhua Liu Abstract The increasing strength of tropical cyclones may be a response of the Earth's interaction between natural variability and human activities. Negative effects of the severe storms, such as flooding, landslides, damage to properties, and even a number of human casualties, have been reported many times. This study reported other aspects on Hurricanes and Typhoons, which may be beneficial to the world. We found that Hurricane Florence in 2006 decreased radiation energy by , 0.5 × 1020 J to the Earth-atmospheric system, about 10% of the annual global energy consumption. If the amount of energy uniformly distributes over the whole Earth surface and over 1-year time, it corresponds to a power of , 0.003 W m,2 The total forcing power on climate change is 0.24 W m,2, if we only take account for the stored fluxes in water, atmosphere, continents, and heat required to melt glaciers and sea ice. Thus, the shielding effect of solar radiation by tropical storms could contribute to ease global warming. In addition, hurricane and typhoon can ease drought sometimes. This study found that the total rainwater carried by Typhoon Matsa in August 2005 into China's inland amounts to about 135 billion tons. The rainfall over the northern China eased severe drought in summer 2005. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Influence of the equatorial warm water pool on the tropical cyclogenesis: an aqua planet experimentATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE LETTERS, Issue 4 2008Mayumi K. Yoshioka Abstract Aqua planet experiments were performed to investigate any favorable environmental conditions for tropical cyclogenesis with a high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model. Zonally localized enhanced sea surface temperature distributions on the equator modify atmospheric circulation east,west asymmetrically. Tropical cyclogenesis is observed in the off-equatorial western half of the warm water pool where an enhanced distribution of absolute vorticity is produced. The region associated with the equatorward planetary vorticity transport contributes to make the western half of the pool notably favorable for generating tropical cyclones. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Impacts of tropical cyclones on the regional climate: An East Asian summer monsoon caseATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE LETTERS, Issue 4 2007Zhong Zhong Abstract The contribution of tropical cyclones (TCs) over the Western Pacific Ocean (WPO) and China to the formation of the regional climate over East Asia is investigated by the use of a regional climate model. Our results show that the regional climate is significantly affected by the frequency of TC activity in terms of weakening the Western Pacific subtropical high when TCs are over the WPO and interrupting the summer monsoon when TCs make landfall over China. If there were no TCs, the atmosphere over southeast and northeast China would become drier, while that over southwest and north China would become wetter. Copyright © 2007 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Resilience of arboreal folivores to habitat damage by a severe tropical cycloneAUSTRAL ECOLOGY, Issue 4 2008ROBYN F. WILSON Abstract Severe tropical cyclones greatly modify habitat of arboreal folivores by destroying forest canopy, reducing structure and complexity and defoliating remaining trees. We hypothesized that forest modification following severe Cyclone Larry would stress arboreal folivores of the Family Pseudocheiridae and be reflected in increased home ranges and a decrease in body condition. We conducted 19 pre-cyclone and 24 post-cyclone spotlighting surveys at a site with severe cyclone damage, and 18 post-cyclone surveys at a site with minor damage. We detected a greater number of lemuroid, Hemibelideus lemuroides and green, Pseudochirops archeri, ringtail possums as these possums remained in the severely damaged canopy and forest edge. In contrast, Herbert River ringtail possums, Pseudochirulus herbertensis, were detected in smaller numbers. We radio-tracked eight P. herbertensis before the cyclone, following two of these and nine new animals after the category 4 cyclone. No significant post-cyclone alteration in home range area or span was recorded in data pooled across the two sites or in limited post-cyclone data at the severely disturbed site, but a greater variability in home range was observed after cyclone (pooled across sites: 1.72 ± 0.77 ha; 197 ± 47 m) than before the cyclone (1.35 ± 0.30 ha; 196 ± 23 m). In contrast, pooled pre- and post-cyclone home range areas and spans were larger at the severely-disturbed site (2.08 ± 0.56 ha; 231 ± 32 m) than at the site with minor damage (0.68 ± 0.11 ha; 114 ± 25 m), suggesting resources were more widely spread at the former site. Post-cyclone home ranges were also larger at the severely damaged site (severe: 3.33 ± 1.36 ha, n = 3; minor: 0.52 ± 0.07 ha, n = 4). Condition of P. herbertensis (mass/tail length) did not differ significantly pre- and post-cyclone or between less and severely disturbed sites. These results and observations of breeding after cyclone suggest that possum populations may be resilient to severe cyclone damage under the relatively wet conditions experienced post-Cyclone Larry. [source] | |||||||||||||