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Testing Predictions (testing + prediction)
Selected AbstractsTesting predictions of the critical period for survival concept using experiments with stocked Atlantic salmonJOURNAL OF FISH BIOLOGY, Issue 2004K. H. Nislow Two separate field experiments were performed in the U.S.A. and Norway with stocked Atlantic salmon Salmo salar. In the Norwegian experiment, the offspring of early-spawning fish which had larger eggs and emerged a few days before offspring of later spawning fish had consistently higher survival rates. In the U.S.A. experiment, stream sections with higher proportions of favourable foraging locations during the critical period (the transition from dependence on maternally-derived yolk reserves to independent feeding) had lower loss rates of fish stocked as unfed fry. These results provide support for the critical period concept (CPC) in Atlantic salmon, underscores the utility of a manipulative approach to achieve further advances in knowledge of Atlantic salmon ecology and provide additional guidance to management and restoration. A mechanistic, conceptual model for density dependence is presented to identify important knowledge gaps that remain to further evaluate the importance of the CPC for Atlantic salmon population regulation. [source] Ontogenetic scaling of scansorial surface area and setal dimensions of Chondrodactylus bibronii (Gekkota: Gekkonidae): testing predictions derived from cross-species comparisons of gekkotansACTA ZOOLOGICA, Issue 1 2009Nicole B. Webster Abstract Little is known of how the adhesive apparatus of gekkotans scales with growth. Cross-species comparisons of certain characteristics, using size as a comparator to investigate scaling relationships, suggest certain relationships between subdigital pad area and body size. The manner in which the adhesive apparatus grows and scales within any one species, however, remains unknown, and it is unclear whether interspecific and intraspecific patterns are similar. To address this, we examined a post-hatching ontogenetic series of the southern African gecko Chondrodactylus bibronii and demonstrate that setal density, setal basal diameter and setal spacing remain relatively constant in relation to size, indicating conserved subdigital pad assembly rules that are independent of size. Conversely, however, average and maximal setal lengths increase slightly and isometrically with size, an outcome that is probably explained by setal row recruitment, and the surface area of the subdigital pads scales close to, but below, isometry with respect to body mass and snout,vent length, it therefore does not increase sufficiently with size to compensate for the increase in mass. As a result, relative adhesive capacity decreases with growth with a regression slope of ,0.45. [source] Predictions and tests of climate-based hypotheses of broad-scale variation in taxonomic richnessECOLOGY LETTERS, Issue 12 2004David J. Currie Abstract Broad-scale variation in taxonomic richness is strongly correlated with climate. Many mechanisms have been hypothesized to explain these patterns; however, testable predictions that would distinguish among them have rarely been derived. Here, we examine several prominent hypotheses for climate,richness relationships, deriving and testing predictions based on their hypothesized mechanisms. The ,energy,richness hypothesis' (also called the ,more individuals hypothesis') postulates that more productive areas have more individuals and therefore more species. More productive areas do often have more species, but extant data are not consistent with the expected causal relationship from energy to numbers of individuals to numbers of species. We reject the energy,richness hypothesis in its standard form and consider some proposed modifications. The ,physiological tolerance hypothesis' postulates that richness varies according to the tolerances of individual species for different sets of climatic conditions. This hypothesis predicts that more combinations of physiological parameters can survive under warm and wet than cold or dry conditions. Data are qualitatively consistent with this prediction, but are inconsistent with the prediction that species should fill climatically suitable areas. Finally, the ,speciation rate hypothesis' postulates that speciation rates should vary with climate, due either to faster evolutionary rates or stronger biotic interactions increasing the opportunity for evolutionary diversification in some regions. The biotic interactions mechanism also has the potential to amplify shallower, underlying gradients in richness. Tests of speciation rate hypotheses are few (to date), and their results are mixed. [source] Site reoccupation in fragmented landscapes: testing predictions of metapopulation theoryJOURNAL OF ANIMAL ECOLOGY, Issue 2 2001Ralph S. Hames Summary 1,Populations of formerly continuously distributed species subdivided by habitat fragmentation may show distributions in space and time that are consistent with predictions of metapopulation theory. Local extinctions and recolonizations should result in the most fragmented sites being infrequently occupied and the least fragmented sites being continuously occupied by sensitive species. The probability of extinction is predicted to be negatively correlated with patch size and the amount of habitat in the landscape. Conversely, recolonization is predicted to be negatively correlated with the isolation of the patch, and positively correlated with the amount of habitat in the landscape. 2,Data from a 3-year study of the effect of fragmentation were used to test whether these predictions from metapopulation theory apply to populations of the long-distance migrant forest bird Piranga olivacea (Scarlet Tanager) in fragmented North American landscapes. 3,Principal components analysis was used to derive a composite measure of fragmentation. This measure was used in a logistic regression as a predictor of the number of years that territorial males would occupy a site, given that it was occupied at least once. More fragmented sites were more likely to be occupied only once; the least fragmented sites were more likely to be occupied in all three years. Data on fragmentation were necessary, but not sufficient, to predict site reoccupation, and were poor predictors at medium levels of fragmentation. 4,The univariate measures of fragmentation (patch size and isolation, proportion of forest, and forest/non-forest edge), were also used in logistic regressions to predict the separate probabilities of local extinction or recolonization. Local extinctions were negatively correlated with patch size and amount of forest in the landscape, as predicted. Recolonizations were negatively correlated with isolation of the patch as predicted, and surprisingly, also with the amount of edge in the landscape. This suggests that stochasticity may drive extinctions, but that habitat selection may play an important role in recolonization. 5,Demographic data are usually required to establish the suitability of habitat to support persistent populations, but multiple-year distributional data can provide information on habitat quality far above that obtained from single-year studies. [source] Spatially autocorrelated sampling falsely inflates measures of accuracy for presence-only niche modelsJOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY, Issue 12 2009Samuel D. Veloz Abstract Aim, Environmental niche models that utilize presence-only data have been increasingly employed to model species distributions and test ecological and evolutionary predictions. The ideal method for evaluating the accuracy of a niche model is to train a model with one dataset and then test model predictions against an independent dataset. However, a truly independent dataset is often not available, and instead random subsets of the total data are used for ,training' and ,testing' purposes. The goal of this study was to determine how spatially autocorrelated sampling affects measures of niche model accuracy when using subsets of a larger dataset for accuracy evaluation. Location, The distribution of Centaurea maculosa (spotted knapweed; Asteraceae) was modelled in six states in the western United States: California, Oregon, Washington, Idaho, Wyoming and Montana. Methods, Two types of niche modelling algorithms , the genetic algorithm for rule-set prediction (GARP) and maximum entropy modelling (as implemented with Maxent) , were used to model the potential distribution of C. maculosa across the region. The effect of spatially autocorrelated sampling was examined by applying a spatial filter to the presence-only data (to reduce autocorrelation) and then comparing predictions made using the spatial filter with those using a random subset of the data, equal in sample size to the filtered data. Results, The accuracy of predictions from both algorithms was sensitive to the spatial autocorrelation of sampling effort in the occurrence data. Spatial filtering led to lower values of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve plot but higher similarity statistic (I) values when compared with predictions from models built with random subsets of the total data, meaning that spatial autocorrelation of sampling effort between training and test data led to inflated measures of accuracy. Main conclusions, The findings indicate that care should be taken when interpreting the results from presence-only niche models when training and test data have been randomly partitioned but occurrence data were non-randomly sampled (in a spatially autocorrelated manner). The higher accuracies obtained without the spatial filter are a result of spatial autocorrelation of sampling effort between training and test data inflating measures of prediction accuracy. If independently surveyed data for testing predictions are unavailable, then it may be necessary to explicitly account for the spatial autocorrelation of sampling effort between randomly partitioned training and test subsets when evaluating niche model predictions. [source] An experimental test for effects of the maternal environment on delayed germinationJOURNAL OF ECOLOGY, Issue 5 2010Katja Tielbörger Summary 1.,Recent models on bet-hedging germination in annual plants assume a negative relationship between the proportion of offspring that germinate and the quality of the maternal environment. An increase in the proportion of seeds remaining dormant in the next year, when produced in seasons with high reproduction may result from selection that avoids overcrowding in the following year. 2.,We present the first empirical test of this prediction by utilizing a field experiment in Israel which manipulated the entire maternal environment. We subjected semi-arid and Mediterranean annual plant communities to different rainfall treatments: control, reduced and increased rainfall. We then related maternal environment quality to offspring germination fractions for three focal species in two consecutive seasons. 3.,There was a negative relationship between the quality of the maternal environment and offspring germination fraction in four out of twelve cases. The negative relationship was stronger for the least competitive species and in the environment with high competition intensity, supporting the role of competition for the observed pattern. 4.,Our results suggest that competition with all neighbours is more likely to explain the pattern than sib competition. 5.,Synthesis. Our findings provide the first experimental evidence of a highly reliable cue (productivity of maternal environment) that allows for plants to respond to their future biotic environment. There is an urgent need for testing predictions of theoretical models in natural populations and for incorporating the role of density dependence in studies of bet-hedging germination. [source] The ,New Wave' in plant demographic inference: more loci and more individualsMOLECULAR ECOLOGY, Issue 6 2010MARTIN LASCOUX Abstract Plant population genetic surveys are starting to take full advantage of technological advances in genotyping methods and of methodological advances in demographic inference. In this issue of Molecular Ecology, Keller et al. (2010) illustrate this trend with a particularly convincing study of rangewide genetic variation in a North American poplar, using both SNP and sequence data. They first investigate population genetic structure by estimating the most likely number of genetic clusters using a more formal approach than most other studies to date. They proceed by estimating gene flow among the inferred populations and by testing predictions on the distribution of low frequency alleles derived from recent work on range expansions. [source] On testing predictions of species relative abundance from maximum entropy optimisationOIKOS, Issue 4 2010Stephen H. Roxburgh A randomisation test is described for assessing relative abundance predictions from the maximum entropy approach to biodiversity. The null model underlying the test randomly allocates observed abundances to species, but retains key aspects of the structure of the observed communities; site richness, species composition, and trait covariance. Three test statistics are used to explore different characteristics of the predictions. Two are based on pairwise comparisons between observed and predicted species abundances (RMSE, RMSESqrt). The third statistic is novel and is based on community-level abundance patterns, using an index calculated from the observed and predicted community entropies (EDiff). Validation of the test to quantify type I and type II error rates showed no evidence of bias or circularity, confirming the dependencies quantified by Roxburgh and Mokany (2007) and Shipley (2007) have been fully accounted for within the null model. Application of the test to the vineyard data of Shipley et al. (2006) and to an Australian grassland dataset indicated significant departures from the null model, suggesting the integration of species trait information within the maximum entropy framework can successfully predict species abundance patterns. The paper concludes with some general comments on the use of maximum entropy in ecology, including a discussion of the mathematics underlying the Maxent optimisation algorithm and its implementation, the role of absent species in generating biased predictions, and some comments on determining the most appropriate level of data aggregation for Maxent analysis. [source] Altered behaviour in spotted hyenas associated with increased human activityANIMAL CONSERVATION, Issue 3 2003Erin E. Boydston To investigate how anthropogenic activity might affect large carnivores, we studied the behaviour of spotted hyenas (Crocuta crocuta) during two time periods. From 1996 to 1998, we documented the ecological correlates of space utilization patterns exhibited by adult female hyenas defending a territory at the edge of a wildlife reserve in Kenya. Hyenas preferred areas near dense vegetation but appeared to avoid areas containing the greatest abundance of prey, perhaps because these were also the areas of most intensive livestock grazing. We then compared hyena behaviour observed in 1996,98 with that observed several years earlier and found many differences. Female hyenas in 1996,98 were found farther from dens, but closer to dense vegetation and to the edges of their territory, than in 1988,90. Recent females also had larger home ranges, travelled farther between consecutive sightings, and were more nocturnal than in 1988,90. Finally, hyenas occurred in smaller groups in 1996,98 than in 1988,90. We also found several changes in hyena demography between periods. We next attempted to explain differences observed between time periods by testing predictions of hypotheses invoking prey abundance, climate, interactions with lions, tourism and livestock grazing. Our data were consistent with the hypothesis that increased reliance on the reserve for livestock grazing was responsible for observed changes. That behavioural changes were not associated with decreased hyena population density suggests the behavioural plasticity typical of this species may protect it from extinction. [source] | ||||||||||