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Targeting Procedures (targeting + procedure)

Distribution by Scientific Domains
Business, Economics, Finance and Accounting75%

Selected Abstracts

Open-Economy Inflation-Forecast Targeting

GERMAN ECONOMIC REVIEW, Issue 1 2006
Kai Leitemo
Inflation targeting; forecast targeting; monetary policy; small open economy Abstract. We study simple inflation-forecast targeting in an open-economy setting. Simple inflation-forecast targeting implies setting an interest rate which, if kept unchanged throughout the forecast-targeting horizon, produces a conditional inflation forecast equal to the inflation target at the end of the horizon. We find that the optimal forecast-targeting horizon is relatively short (one year). A longer horizon does not consistently contribute to improved output stability, indeed it increases exchange rate variability and traded sector variability. The targeting procedure is substantially inferior to the optimal pre-commitment policy. Moreover, the targeting procedure does not necessarily determine the rational-expectations equilibrium and is subject to time inconsistency. [source]

Issues in targeted observing

THE QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, Issue 613 2005
(Invited paper for the Q. J. R. Meteorol.
Abstract This paper summarizes successes and limitations of targeted observing field programmes starting from the Fronts and Atlantic Storm-Track Experiment in 1997 through recent programmes targeting winter storms and tropical cyclones. These field programmes have produced average reductions in short-range forecast errors of about 10 per cent over regional verification areas, and maximum forecast error reductions as large as 50 per cent in certain cases. The majority of targeting cases investigated so far involve sets of dropsondes and other observation data that provide partial coverage of target areas. The primary scientific challenges for targeting include the refinement of objective methods that can identify optimal times and locations for targeted observations, as well as identify the specific types of satellite and in situ measurements that are required for the improvement of numerical weather forecasts. The most advanced targeting procedures, at present, include: the ensemble transform Kalman Filter, Hessian singular vectors, and observation-space targeting using the adjoint of a variational data assimilation procedure. Targeted observing remains an active research topic in numerical weather prediction, with plans for continued refinement of objective targeting procedures, and field tests of new satellite and in situ observing systems. Copyright © 2005 Royal Meteorological Society [source]

Some Fiscal Implications of Monetary Policy

BULLETIN OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH, Issue 1 2003
Harris Dellas
We study the implications of alternative monetary targeting procedures for real interest rates and economic activity. We find that countercyclical monetary policy rules lead to higher real interest rates, higher average tax rates, lower output but lower variability of tax rates and consumption relative to procyclical rules. For a country with a high level of public debt (e.g. Italy), the adoption of a countercyclical procedure such as interest rate pegging may conceivably raise public debt servicing costs by more than half a percentage point of GNP. Our analysis suggests that the current debate on the targeting procedures of the European Central Bank ought to be broadened to include a discussion of the fiscal implications of monetary policy. [source]