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Systematic Risk (systematic + risk)
Selected AbstractsTHE SYSTEMATIC RISK OF DEBT: AUSTRALIAN EVIDENCE,AUSTRALIAN ECONOMIC PAPERS, Issue 1 2005KEVIN DAVISArticle first published online: 21 FEB 200 This paper examines systematic risk (betas) of Australian government debt securities for the period 1979,2004 and makes three contributions to academic research and practical debate. First, the empirical work provides direct evidence on the systematic risk of government debt, and provides a benchmark for estimating the systematic risk of corporate debt which is relevant for cost of capital estimation and for optimal portfolio selection by asset managers such as superannuation funds. Second, analysis of reasons for non-zero (and time varying) betas for fixed income securities aids understanding of the primary sources of systematic risk. Third, the results cast light on the appropriate choice of maturity of risk free interest rate for use in the Capital Asset Pricing Model and have implications for the current applicability of historical estimates of the market risk premium. Debt betas are found to be, on average, significantly positive and (as expected) closely related, cross sectionally, to duration. They are, however, subject to significant time series variation, and over the past few years the pre-existing positive correlation between bond and stock returns appears to have vanished. [source] Estimating Systematic Risk Using Time Varying DistributionsEUROPEAN FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT, Issue 1 2002Gregory Koutmos This article proposes a dynamic vector GARCH model for the estimation of time-varying betas. The model allows the conditional variances and the conditional covariance between individual portfolio returns and market portfolio returns to respond asymmetrically to past innovations depending on their sign. Covariances tend to be higher during market declines. There is substantial time variation in betas but the evidence on beta asymmetry is mixed. Specifically, in 50% of the cases betas are higher during market declines and for the remaining 50% the opposite is true. A time series analysis of estimated time varying betas reveals that they follow stationary mean-reverting processes. The average degree of persistence is approximately four days. It is also found that the static market model overstates non-market or, unsystematic risk by more than 10%. On the basis of an array of diagnostics it is confirmed that the vector GARCH model provides a richer framework for the analysis of the dynamics of systematic risk. [source] Financial Intermediaries and Interest Rate Risk: IIFINANCIAL MARKETS, INSTITUTIONS & INSTRUMENTS, Issue 5 2006Sotiris K. Staikouras The current work extends and updates the previous survey (Staikouras, 2003) by looking at other aspects of the financial institutions' yield sensitivity. The study starts with an extensive discussion of the origins of asset-liability management and the subsequent work to identify effective ways of measuring and managing interest rate risk. The discussion implicates both regulatory and market-based approaches along with any issues surrounding their applicability. The literature is enriched by recognizing that structural and regulatory shifts affect financial institutions in different ways depending on the size and nature of their activities. It is also noted that such shifts could change the bank's riskiness, and force banks to adjust their balance sheet size by altering their maturity intermediation function. Besides yield changes, market cycles are also held responsible for asymmetric effects on corporate values. Furthermore, nonstandard investigations are considered, where embedded options and basis risk are significant above and beyond the intermediary's rate sensitivity, while shocks to the slope of the yield curve is identified as a new variable. When the discount privilege is modeled as an option, it is shown that its value is incorporated in the equities of qualifying banks. Finally, volatility clustering is further established while constant relative risk aversion is not present in the U.S. market. Although some empirical findings may be quite mixed, there is a general consensus that all forms of systematic risk, risk premia, and the risk-return trade-off do exhibit some form of variability, not only over time but also across corporate sizes and segments. [source] Can Asset Pricing Models Price Idiosyncratic Risk in U.K. Stock Returns?FINANCIAL REVIEW, Issue 4 2007Jonathan Fletcher G12 Abstract I examine how well different linear factor models and consumption-based asset pricing models price idiosyncratic risk in U.K. stock returns. Correctly pricing idiosyncratic risk is a significant challenge for many of the models I consider. For some consumption-based models, there is a clear tradeoff in the performance of the models between correctly pricing systematic risk and idiosyncratic risk. Linear factor models do a better job in most cases in pricing systematic risk than consumption-based models but the reverse is true for idiosyncratic risk. [source] Socially responsible investment fund performance: the impact of screening intensityACCOUNTING & FINANCE, Issue 2 2010Darren D. Lee G11; M14 Abstract Perhaps the most common criticism of socially responsible investment funds is that imposing non-financial screens restricts investment opportunities, reduces diversification efficiencies and thereby adversely impacts performance. In this study we investigate this proposition and test whether the number of screens employed has a linear or curvilinear relation with return. Moreover, we analyse the link between screening intensity and risk. Screening intensity has no effect on unadjusted (raw) returns or idiosyncratic risk. However, we find a significant reduction in , of 70 basis points per screen using the Carhart performance model. Increased screening results in lower systematic risk , in line with managers choosing lower , stocks to minimize overall risk. [source] Size and momentum in European equity markets: empirical findings from varying beta Capital Asset Pricing ModelACCOUNTING & FINANCE, Issue 1 2010George Karathanasis G14; G15 Abstract We use securities listed on 13 European equity markets to form size and momentum portfolios. We find limited evidence of a size premium but significant momentum returns in eight sample markets. We find that these premia may not constitute an anomaly because they are consistent with a varying-beta Capital Asset Pricing Model. We also show that systematic risk is related to the business cycle. Furthermore, the results suggest that although size and especially momentum returns are significant, it would be difficult to exploit them in the short to medium run, because they are positive and sizeable in very few years in our sample. [source] Investment manager characteristics, strategy, top management changes and fund performanceACCOUNTING & FINANCE, Issue 3 2003David R. Gallagher Abstract The present study examines the performance of Australian investment management organisations with direct reference to their specific characteristics and strategies employed. Using a unique information source, performance is evaluated for actively managed institutional balanced funds, Australian share funds and Australian bond funds. For balanced mandates, performance is evaluated with respect to the investment strategy adopted, the experience and qualifications held by investment professionals, and the tenure of the key investment professionals. The present study examines the performance of top management and the impact on returns when turnover arises. The research documents that a significant number of active Australian equity managers earned superior risk-adjusted returns in the period, however, active managers perform in line with market indices for balanced funds and Australian bond funds. A number of manager characteristics are also found to predict risk-adjusted returns, systematic risk and investment expenses for balanced funds. [source] An Examination of the Equity Market Response to The Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act Across Commercial Banking, Investment Banking, and Insurance FirmsJOURNAL OF BUSINESS FINANCE & ACCOUNTING, Issue 9-10 2006H. Semih Yildirim Abstract:, This paper examines the wealth effects of the events surrounding the passage of the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act of 1999 and changes in systematic risk from the pre-Act period to the post-Act period for commercial banks, investment banks, and insurance firms. The results suggest that investment banks and insurance firms are better positioned to exploit the benefits of product-line diversification opportunities allowed by the legislation compared to commercial banks that experience no significant market reaction. Further evidence indicates a significant risk shift and overall reduction in riskiness for the financial sectors under consideration around the event period. [source] Risk and Return Around Bond Rating Changes: New Evidence From the Spanish Stock MarketJOURNAL OF BUSINESS FINANCE & ACCOUNTING, Issue 5-6 2006Pilar Abad-Romero Abstract:, This study analyzes the effect of corporate bond rating changes on stock prices in the Spanish stock market. We explore their effects on excess of returns and systematic risk. Rating changes by Moody's, Standard and Poor's and FitchIBCA are analyzed. On an efficient market, these changes will only have some effect if they contain some new information or if they are associated to a redistribution of wealth between shareholders and bondholders. We use an extension of the event study dummy approach. Our results support the redistribution of wealth hypothesis in the abnormal returns behavior. We also find that changes in both directions cause a rebalancing effect in the total risk of the firm, with significant reductions on their systematic component. [source] Political and Regulatory Risk in Water Utilities: Beta Sensitivity in the United KingdomJOURNAL OF BUSINESS FINANCE & ACCOUNTING, Issue 7-8 2001Roger Buckland UK utilities are generally regulated by the periodic setting of a price cap (the RPI-X mechanism). To establish these caps, regulators must determine what returns are appropriate on the capital employed by utilities. This paper addresses the issue of the level of risk inherent in investment in the equity of regulated water utilities in the UK. It uses the techniques of the Kalman Filter to estimate daily betas for the major utilities in the period from privatisation to mid-1999. The paper demonstrates that water utilities' risk is time-variant. It demonstrates, also, that there have been significant political and regulatory influences in the systematic risk faced by water utility shareholders. It finds beta to display little evidence of cyclical variation across the regulatory review cycle. The paper also confirms that significant excess returns have been generated over the history of the privatised water sector and suggests that over-estimation of systematic risk faced by investors in the sector may imply further excess returns in the next regulatory review period. [source] Equity-Liabilities Distinction: The case for Co-operatives,JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT & ACCOUNTING, Issue 3 2009Germán López-Espinosa Members' shares in co-operative entities are financial instruments with particular characteristics. In this paper we analyse the relation between firm leverage and systematic risk to provide empirical evidence on the economic substance of the member shares of members of cooperatives. We have studied the characteristics of members' shares in six European countries: France, Germany, Italy, Portugal, Spain and United Kingdom. We have also conducted tests on co-operatives of these countries over the period 1993,2005. The study reports that in global terms the economic substance of the redeemable part of equity in co-operatives is not the same across countries. Therefore if accounting standards setters want to develop a global standard for co-operatives, a recommendation derived from this study would be to follow a probabilistic model to classify the redeemable part of co-operative financial instruments, where the entity does not have the unconditional right to refuse the redemption, or to report this part as an intermediate item with characteristics of debt and equity. [source] Self-financing Unemployment Insurance and Bargaining StructureLABOUR, Issue 2 2003Helge Sanner For this purpose, we compare the outcome of a model with a uniform payroll tax to a model where workers pay taxes according to their systematic risk of unemployment. Our results highlight the importance of the bargaining structure for the assessment of a particular UI scheme. Most importantly, it depends on the relative size of the unions whether efficiency favors a uniform or a differentiated UI scheme. [source] Bias and backwardation in natural gas futures pricesTHE JOURNAL OF FUTURES MARKETS, Issue 3 2005Nahid Movassagh This paper tests the fair-game efficient-markets hypothesis for the natural gas futures prices over the period 1990 through 2003. We find evidence consistent with the Keynesian notion of normal backwardation. Regressing the future spot prices on the lagged futures prices and using the Stock-Watson (1993) procedure to correct for the correlation between the error terms and the futures prices, we find that natural gas futures are biased predictors of the corresponding future spot prices for contracts ranging from 3 to 12 months. These results cast a serious doubt on the commonly held view that natural gas futures sell at a premium over the expected future spot prices, and that this bias is due to the systematic risk of the futures price movements represented by a negative "beta." We also find evidence for the Samuelson effect. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 25:281,308, 2005 [source] Demand Diversification Under Uncertainty and Market PowerASIAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL, Issue 4 2001John J. Y. Seo This paper justifies theoretically and empirically the diversification behaviour of an importing firm when it chooses the mixture of potentially differentiated products of its major input under price uncertainty. The paper investigates an equilibrium relationship among three key explanatory variables, which are the expected price, the systematic risk of price, and monopolistic market power of the suppliers in the market. The theoretical section shows that there exists a conflict between the risk,diversification effect and the agent's preference over certain products when the importer chooses the vector of optimal quantity shares. The latter effect may disturb or even dominate the former, which can be represented in an equilibrium relationship similar to the framework of the CAPM. As an empirical application, the Chinese wheat import market is examined and analysed to answer the questions raised by the basic statistics. JEL classification: F12; F14; L22 [source] THE SYSTEMATIC RISK OF DEBT: AUSTRALIAN EVIDENCE,AUSTRALIAN ECONOMIC PAPERS, Issue 1 2005KEVIN DAVISArticle first published online: 21 FEB 200 This paper examines systematic risk (betas) of Australian government debt securities for the period 1979,2004 and makes three contributions to academic research and practical debate. First, the empirical work provides direct evidence on the systematic risk of government debt, and provides a benchmark for estimating the systematic risk of corporate debt which is relevant for cost of capital estimation and for optimal portfolio selection by asset managers such as superannuation funds. Second, analysis of reasons for non-zero (and time varying) betas for fixed income securities aids understanding of the primary sources of systematic risk. Third, the results cast light on the appropriate choice of maturity of risk free interest rate for use in the Capital Asset Pricing Model and have implications for the current applicability of historical estimates of the market risk premium. Debt betas are found to be, on average, significantly positive and (as expected) closely related, cross sectionally, to duration. They are, however, subject to significant time series variation, and over the past few years the pre-existing positive correlation between bond and stock returns appears to have vanished. [source] MUTUAL FUNDS SELECTION BASED ON FUNDS CHARACTERISTICSTHE JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL RESEARCH, Issue 3 2010Diana P. Budiono Abstract The popular investment strategy in the literature is to use only past performance to select mutual funds. We investigate whether an investor can select superior funds by additionally using fund characteristics. After considering the fund fees, we find that combining information on past performance, turnover ratio, and ability produces a yearly excess net return of 8.0%, whereas an investment strategy that uses only past performance generates 7.1%. Adjusting for systematic risks, and then using fund characteristics, increases yearly alpha significantly from 0.8% to 1.7%. The strategy that also uses fund characteristics requires less turnover. [source] | |||||||||||||||||||