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Summer Period (summer + period)
Selected AbstractsReal-time forecasting of photosmog episodes: the Naples case studyJOURNAL OF CHEMOMETRICS, Issue 7 2001A. Riccio Abstract In this paper we analysed the ozone time series data collected by the local monitoring network in the Naples urban area (southern Italy) during the spring/summer period of 1996. Our aim was to identify a reliable and effective model that could be used for the real-time forecasting of photosmog episodes. We studied the applicability of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average models with some exogenous variables (ARIMAX) to our case study. The choice of exogenous variables,temperature, [NO2]/[NO] ratio and wind speed,was based on physical reasoning. The forecasting performance of all models was evaluated with data not used in model development, by means of an array of statistical indices: the comparison between observed and forecast means and standard deviations; intercept and slope of a least squares regression of forecast variable on observed variable; mean absolute and root mean square errors; and 95% confidence limits of forecast variable. The assessment of all models was also based on their tendency to forecast critical episodes. It was found that the model using information from the temperature data set to predict peak ozone levels gives satisfactory results, about 70% of critical episodes being correctly predicted by the 24,h ahead forecast function. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Seasonal changes in acute toxicity of cadmium to amphipod Corophium volutatorENVIRONMENTAL TOXICOLOGY & CHEMISTRY, Issue 12 2000Belinda J. Kater Abstract In vivo bioassays are frequently used to assess the ecotoxicological risks of contaminated sediments. For quality assurance purposes, these bioassays are accompanied by reference toxicity tests. For the bioassay with Corophium volutator, this reference toxicity test is an acute water-phase test with cadmium. Approximately 80 water-phase tests were conducted in the period 1991,1998. Corophium volutator shows a significant seasonal variation in response to cadmium, with a high LC50 in the winter period and a low LC50 in the summer period. Same variation can be found if Corophium is held in the laboratory instead of freshly collected in the field and if synthetic water is used instead of natural filtered seawater. The observed seasonal variation is not caused by the fact that the organisms are collected in the field or by the variation in seawater used for the water-phase tests. [source] The meta-analysis of the Italian studies on short-term effects of air pollution (MISA): old and new issues on the interpretation of the statistical evidencesENVIRONMETRICS, Issue 3 2007Pierantonio Bellini Abstract The second meta-analysis of the Italian studies on short-term health effects of air pollution, known as MISA-2, was based on daily time series of indicators of both pollution and of health outcomes. It covered 15 cities during 1996,2002 for a total population of approximately nine millions. Health outcomes included mortality for natural causes, for respiratory diseases and for cardiovascular conditions, as well as hospital admissions for respiratory, cardiac and cerebrovascular diseases. Pollutants considered in univariate analyses were sulphur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxide (NO2), carbon monoxide (CO), suspended particulate matter (SPM) measuring less than 10,µm diameter (PM10) and ozone (O3, limited to the summer period). Results, including risk estimates, have been largely confirmatory of findings obtained in previous large meta-analytic studies carried out in North America and in Europe. A full report in Italian is available. The present contribution summarises the results of MISA-2 and addresses three major issues regarding their interpretation: robustness of the causal inferential process, the role of specific air pollutants and the reliability of risk estimates. The former issue is stressed according to Bradford Hill's criteria and the conclusion is reached that at least for the association of air pollution with an increase in mortality the evidence for causality is strong. Assessing the role of each air pollutant is problematic: there is some evidence that the effects of PM10 are partly confounded by other pollutants, but PM10 may not be the best indicator of the role of air SPM (routine measures of PM2.5 have not been introduced in Italy). As for risk estimates, the per cent increase in risk of mortality for unit increase in PM10 concentration, measured in MISA-2, is remarkably similar to estimates in other studies and there is indication for linearity of the dose,response relationship. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Assessing the sources and magnitude of diurnal nitrate variability in the San Joaquin River (California) with an in situ optical nitrate sensor and dual nitrate isotopesFRESHWATER BIOLOGY, Issue 2 2009BRIAN A. PELLERIN Summary 1.,We investigated diurnal nitrate (NO3,) concentration variability in the San Joaquin River using an in situ optical NO3, sensor and discrete sampling during a 5-day summer period characterized by high algal productivity. Dual NO3, isotopes (,15NNO3 and ,18ONO3) and dissolved oxygen isotopes (,18ODO) were measured over 2 days to assess NO3, sources and biogeochemical controls over diurnal time-scales. 2.,Concerted temporal patterns of dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations and ,18ODO were consistent with photosynthesis, respiration and atmospheric O2 exchange, providing evidence of diurnal biological processes independent of river discharge. 3.,Surface water NO3, concentrations varied by up to 22% over a single diurnal cycle and up to 31% over the 5-day study, but did not reveal concerted diurnal patterns at a frequency comparable to DO concentrations. The decoupling of ,15NNO3 and ,18ONO3 isotopes suggests that algal assimilation and denitrification are not major processes controlling diurnal NO3, variability in the San Joaquin River during the study. The lack of a clear explanation for NO3, variability likely reflects a combination of riverine biological processes and time-varying physical transport of NO3, from upstream agricultural drains to the mainstem San Joaquin River. 4.,The application of an in situ optical NO3, sensor along with discrete samples provides a view into the fine temporal structure of hydrochemical data and may allow for greater accuracy in pollution assessment. [source] Effects of mute swan grazing on a keystone macrophyteFRESHWATER BIOLOGY, Issue 12 2007MATTHEW T. O'HARE Summary 1. This study describes the early summer foraging behaviour of mute swans (Cygnus olor) on the River Frome, a highly productive chalk stream in southern England in which Ranunculus penicillatus pseudofluitans is the dominant macrophyte. 2. A daily maximum of 41 ± 2.5 swans were present along the 1.1 km study reach during the study period (late May to the end of June). The river was the primary feeding habitat. Feeding activity on the river at dawn and dusk was much lower than during daylight, but we cannot rule out the possibility that swans fed during the hours of darkness. 3. The effects of herbivory on R. pseudofluitans biomass and morphology were quantified. Biomass was lower in grazed areas and swans grazed selectively on leaves in preference to stems. A lower proportion of stems from grazed areas possessed intact stem apices and flowering of the plant was reduced in grazed areas. 4. A model, based on the swans' daily consumption, was used to predict the grazing pressure of swans on R. pseudofluitans. The model accurately predicted the number of bird days supported by the study site, only if grazing was assumed to severely reduce R. pseudofluitans growth. The proportion of the initial R. pseudofluitans biomass consumed by a fixed number of swans was predicted to be greater when the habitat area was smaller, initial R. pseudofluitans biomass was lower and R. pseudofluitans was of lower food value. 5. We concluded that the flux of N and P through the study reach was largely unaffected by swan activity. The quality of R. pseudofluitans mesohabitat (the plant as habitat for invertebrates and fish) was significantly reduced by grazing which also indirectly contributed to reduced roughness (Manning's n) and by inference water depth. Wetted habitat area for fish and invertebrates would also be lowered over the summer period as a consequence of the reduction in water depth. It was estimated that, while grazing, an individual swan may eat the same mass of invertebrates per day as a 300-g trout. 6. There is a need to manage the conflict between mute swans and the keystone macrophyte, R. pseudofluitans, in chalk streams, and the modelling approach used here offers a potentially useful tool for this purpose. [source] Indoor/outdoor concentrations and elemental composition of PM10/PM2.5 in urban/industrial areas of Kocaeli City, TurkeyINDOOR AIR, Issue 2 2010B. Pekey Abstract, This study presents indoor/outdoor PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations measured during winter and summer in 15 homes in Kocaeli, which is one of the most industrialized areas in Turkey. Indoor and outdoor PM2.5 and PM10 mass concentrations and elemental composition were determined using an X-ray fluorescence spectrometer. Quantitative information was obtained on mass concentrations and other characteristics such as seasonal variation, indoor/outdoor (I/O) ratio, PM2.5/PM10 ratio, correlations and sources. Average indoor and outdoor PM2.5 concentrations were 29.8 and 23.5 ,g/m3 for the summer period, and 24.4 and 21.8 ,g/m3 for the winter period, respectively. Average indoor and outdoor PM10 concentrations were 45.5 and 59.9 ,g/m3 for the summer period, and 56.9 and 102.3 ,g/m3 for the winter period, respectively. A varimax rotated factor analysis (FA) was performed separately on indoor and outdoor datasets in an effort to identify possible heavy metal sources of PM2.5 and PM10 particle fractions. FA of outdoor data produced source categories comprising polluted soil, industry, motor vehicles, and fossil fuel combustion for both PM fractions, while source categories determined for indoor data for both PM2.5 and PM10 comprised industry, polluted soil, motor vehicles, and smoking, with an additional source category of cooking activities detected for the PM2.5 fraction. Practical Implications In buildings close to industrial areas or traffic arteries, outdoor sources may have an important effect on indoor air pollution. Therefore, indoor and outdoor investigations should be conducted simultaneously to assess the relationship between indoor and outdoor pollution. This study presents the simultaneous measurement of PM fractions (PM2.5 and PM10) and their elemental compositions to determine the sources of respirable PM and the heavy metals bound to these particles in indoor air. Factor analysis of indoor data indicated that the contribution of outdoor pollutant sources to indoor pollution was about 70%, making these sources the most significant for indoor heavy metal pollution, wheras other sources of indoor pollution included smoking and cooking activities. [source] Sensitivity study of the urban heat island intensity to urban characteristicsINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 7 2008R. Hamdi Abstract A detailed urban surface exchange parameterization, implemented in a meso-scale atmospheric model, has been used to study the urban heat island (UHI) intensity during a summer period in the city of Basel, Switzerland. In this urban parameterization, the city is represented as a combination of three urban classes (road, roof and wall), characterized by the size of the street canyon and the building and is thus able to take into account the momentum sink over the entire height of the building, as well as the shadowing and the radiation trapping effects. A control experiment including all the urban parameters describing the city centre of Basel produced a canyon air temperature that compared well with observations. A series of experiments was then conducted in which successively each of the urban parameters characterizing the city centre was changed providing the basis for an assessment of its effect on UHI mitigation. Copyright © 2007 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Annual Cycle of Planktothrix agardhii(Gom.) Anagn.INTERNATIONAL REVIEW OF HYDROBIOLOGY, Issue 3 2004& Kom. Abstract Changes in abundance, biovolume and morphology of Planktothrix agardhii in a natural population were followed over one year period in shallow fishpond Bílá Lhota (Central Moravia, Czech Republic). The selected environmental parameters (pH, oxygen, temperature, conductivity, nutrients, light) were measured at the surface and at the bottom of the fishpond, together with the Planktothrix abundances and filament morphology , filament length, width, shape, aerotopes (gas vacuoles) formation. The annual cycle of P. agardhii in this hypertrophic fishpond starts in March with the germination of hormogonia and the growth of overwintered filaments. The filament length quickly increases to a maximum length in April. The following summer period can be characterized by filament shortening and by changes in the aerotopes shape. On the other hand the abundance and biomass of P. agardhii is increasing until the maximum in August. Further shortening of filaments, loss of aerotopes and hormogoniae formation is typical for the autumn (October) with the average temperature of 9.4 °C. The population overwinters near the pond bottom in the form of hormogonia (60%) and filaments (40%). (© 2004 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim) [source] Annual trend of fish assemblages associated with FADs in the southern Tyrrhenian SeaJOURNAL OF APPLIED ICHTHYOLOGY, Issue 3 2007F. Andaloro Summary A study on fish assemblage associated with fish aggregating devices (FADs) in Sicily was carried out between January 2000 and January 2001. With a fortnightly periodicity, 156 experimental hauls were carried out by means of a purse seine in a FAD-containing marine section banned to commercial fishing. A total of 14 229 fish specimens belonging to six families and 10 species was found. These species were Balistes carolinensis, Caranx crysos, Naucrates ductor, Seriola dumerili, Seriola fasciata, Tachurus picturatus, Coryphaena hippurus, Schedophilus ovalis, Thunnus thynnus, Polyprion americanus and showed all young-of-the-year undergoing a rapid growth. The applied ordination technique highlighted the existence of four assemblage periods describing the annual trend. The results confirm that fish assemblages associated with FADs are related to season, following a fish colonization tied to natural recruitment. Comparison of the ecological indices across the four periods showed that the assemblages in the periods from summer to winter were more structured than those in spring. The quantity of individuals also showed a strong variation peaking in the summer period. The results of this study reveal that FADs represent a particular nursery area for the associated species that could influence their survival. [source] Trophic variations of the Chilean croaker Cilus gilberti during the summer period 1997,98 (Perciformes, Sciaenidae)JOURNAL OF APPLIED ICHTHYOLOGY, Issue 5 2001C. Fernández The natural diet of the Chilean croaker, Cilus gilberti Abbott 1899, was studied in Queule and Tumbes, two areas in central-southern Chile, with emphasis on the possible influences of geographic distribution, sex and ontogenetic development on the croaker feeding habits. Results indicate that C. gilberti behaves in both locations as an euriphagic carnivore predator. The Queule population predate mainly on the sardine Strangomera bentincki Norman 1936, while at Tumbes the principal prey items were mysids. Further quantitative analyses showed that within the Queule population, females between 54 and 75 cm total length (TL), as well as those individuals exceeding 75 cm, acted as an Ontogenetic Trophic Unit (OTU). A Transitional OTU, which includes individuals between 47 and 54 cm, was also identified. Queule males between 47 and 68 cm defined one OTU; another OTU was defined with individuals between 68 and 82 cm. On the other hand, the female population at Tumbes behaved as an OTU between 68 and 89 cm TL; males were grouped in an OTU ranging from 61 to 89 cm TL. [source] Reproductive ecology of the reef manta ray Manta alfredi in southern MozambiqueJOURNAL OF FISH BIOLOGY, Issue 1 2010A. D. Marshall The application of a photographic identification methodology using the unique ventral surface markings (natural spot patterns) of an observed population in southern Mozambique enabled many aspects of the reproductive ecology of reef manta rays Manta alfredi to be examined. The region encompassing the study site was identified as a mating ground for M. alfredi based on observations of mating events and fresh mating scars on females. The distribution of these pectoral fin scars was highly biased and indicated a strong lateralized behavioural trait, with 99% of these scars occurring only on the left pectoral fin. No other elasmobranch has been reported to display behavioural lateralization. The study region also acts as a birthing ground, with individuals typically giving birth in the austral summer period after a gestation of c. 1 year. Reproductive periodicity in M. alfredi was most commonly biennial, but a few individuals were pregnant in consecutive years, confirming an annual ovulatory cycle. The production of a single pup appears to be the normal situation, although observations in the wild as well as during opportunistic dissections of individuals killed by fisheries revealed that two pups are conceived on occasion. Many aspects of the study have contributed to the limited baseline data currently available for this species and have highlighted the potential need for more conservative conservation strategies. [source] The fate of seeds in Mediterranean soil seed banks in relation to their traitsJOURNAL OF VEGETATION SCIENCE, Issue 1 2006Juan Traba Abstract Question: Is there any change in seed density and species richness in Mediterranean surface soil banks during summer? Are there any relationships between these summer variations and seed traits (weight, length and shape), without and with controlling the phylogenetic effect? Location: Central Spain. Methods: Samples of the surface soil seed bank were collected in two Mediterranean systems, grassland and scrubland, at two points in the year: immediately after the summer production peak and immediately prior to the autumn germination peak. We used Canonical Correspondence Analysis ordination to check for changes in floristic composition and ANOVAs to check for changes in seed density and species richness between summer and autumn samples. We used multiple regression analysis to analyse the relationship between summer variations in soil seed density and form traits, with and without controlling phylogenetic relations. Results: Soil seed density dropped significantly during the summer in the two systems (28% in grasslands, repeated measures ANOVA test; F = 58.19, P < 0.01; 72% in scrublands, repeated measures ANOVA test; F = 75.67, P < 0.001). Species richness, however, only dropped significantly in the scrubland (32%; repeated measures ANOVA test; F = 9.17, P < 0.05). Variation in the floristic composition of the shallow banks was only significant in the scrubland. Changes in shallow bank density were related significantly to seed morphology features, with greater drops in species with heavier seeds in grasslands and species with longer seeds in scrubland. Conclusions: Our results show a substantial loss of seeds in the uppermost soil layer during the summer period between the point of peak production and the autumn germination peak. This drop was clearer in the scrubland than in the grassland. Longer and/or heavier seeds underwent the greatest declines in density at the end of summer, indicating a more intense effect of post-dispersal predation on large-seeded species. [source] Foliar demand and resource economy of nutrients in dry tropical forest speciesJOURNAL OF VEGETATION SCIENCE, Issue 1 2001C.B. Lal Important phenological activities in seasonally dry tropical forest species occur within the hot-dry period when soil water is limiting, while the subsequent wet period is utilized for carbon accumulation. Leaf emergence and leaf area expansion in most of these tree species precedes the rainy season when the weather is very dry and hot and the soil cannot support nutrient uptake by the plants. The nutrient requirement for leaf expansion during the dry summer period, however, is substantial in these species. We tested the hypothesis that the nutrients withdrawn from the senescing leaves support the emergence and expansion of leaves in dry tropical woody species to a significant extent. We examined the leaf traits (with parameters such as leaf life span, leaf nutrient content and retranslocation of nutrients during senescence) in eight selected tree species in northern India. The concentrations of N, P and K declined in the senescing foliage while those of Na and Ca increased. Time series observations on foliar nutrients indicated a substantial amount of nutrient resorption before senescence and a ,tight nutrient budgeting'. The resorbed N-mass could potentially support 50 to 100% and 46 to 80% of the leaf growth in terms of area and weight, respectively, across the eight species studied. Corresponding values for P were 29 to 100% and 20 to 91%, for K 29 to 100% and 20 to 57%, for Na 3 to 100% and 1 to 54%, and for Ca 0 to 32% and 0 to 30%. The species differed significantly with respect to their efficiency in nutrient resorption. Such interspecific differences in leaf nutrient economy enhance the conservative utilization of soil nutrients by the dry forest community. This reflects an adaptational strategy of the species growing on seasonally dry, nutrient-poor soils as they tend to depend more or less on efficient internal cycling and, thus, utilize the retranslocated nutrients for the production of new foliage biomass in summer when the availability of soil moisture and nutrients is severely limited. [source] Seasonal pattern of depth selection in smallmouth bassJOURNAL OF ZOOLOGY, Issue 2 2009C. D. Suski Abstract The current study used a stationary acoustic telemetry array to monitor the depth selection of adult smallmouth bass Micropterus dolomieu in a large, oligotrophic lake in Ontario, Canada. At an annual scale, smallmouth bass demonstrated regular, seasonal changes in inhabited depths: fish occupied shallow water during the summer (2,5 m depth) and descended to deeper water (12,15 m depth) during winter under ice. Smallmouth bass remained above the thermocline in the summer, seasonal depth patterns did not vary across fish size and movements to and from seasonal depths were closely linked to the development and degradation of the thermocline. At finer time scales, smallmouth bass exhibited diel vertical migrations in summer, with fish moving to <2 m at night, and then descending to 3,5 m during the day. This pattern remained constant during the summer period examined, and varied with size such that larger fish remained deeper than smaller fish. During winter, depth did not vary across the 3-month monitoring period (c. 14 m), but small (<2 m) changes in depth were observed periodically, suggesting limited movements were occurring. Results are further discussed in the context of climate change and reproductive success for this species. [source] Summer learning and its implications: Insights from the Beginning School StudyNEW DIRECTIONS FOR YOUTH DEVELOPMENT, Issue 114 2007Karl L. Alexander There is perhaps no more pressing issue in school policy today than the achievement gap across social lines. Achievement differences between well-to-do children and poor children and between disadvantaged racial and ethnic minorities and majority whites are large when children first begin school, and they increase over time. Despite years of study and an abundance of good intentions, these patterned achievement differences persist, but who is responsible, and how are schools implicated? The increasing gap seems to suggest that schools are unable to equalize educational opportunity or, worse still, that they actively handicap disadvantaged children. But a seasonal perspective on learning yields a rather different impression. Comparing achievement gains separately over the school year and the summer months reveals that much of the achievement gap originates over the summer period, when children are not in school. The authors review Beginning School Study research on differential summer learning across social lines (that is, by family socioeconomic level) and its implications for later schooling outcomes, including high school curriculum placements, high school dropout, and college attendance. These studies document the extent to which these large summer learning differences impede the later educational progress of children of low socioeconomic status. Practical implications are discussed, including the need for early and sustained interventions to prevent the achievement gap from opening wide in the first place and for high-quality summer programming focused on preventing differential summer learning loss. [source] Apoptotic Changes in the Epithelium Germinativum of the Cat (Felis catus s. domestica, L. 1758) at Different Ages and Breeding SeasonsREPRODUCTION IN DOMESTIC ANIMALS, Issue 4 2008MJ SiemieniuchArticle first published online: 25 FEB 200 Contents Apoptosis (programmed cell death) could be considered as a physiological process that takes part in a healthy organism, which helps to maintain organism homeostasis. The visible deterioration of semen quality and the number of germ cells is accompanied by a seasonal decrease of the reproductive activity in some species. This post-effect cascade is caused by apoptosis, which is the primary mechanism responsible for the elimination of germ cells during spermatogenesis. The aim of our study was to assess apoptotic changes in the epithelium germinativum in cat testes at different ages. One hundred and two pairs of testes were obtained from domestic cats aged between 4 months and 10 years. The paraffin-embedded tissue sections were labelled using the Oncogene and Calbiochem Research Products DNA Fragmentation Detection Kit (Cat# QIA21; Darmstadt, Germany), which allows the recognition of apoptotic nuclei in tissue sections with Fragment End Labelling (FragELTM) of DNA. The activity of apoptotic processes in cat testes collected from the spring-summer period compared with the autumn-winter season revealed that, 59.42% and 51.51%, respectively, males testes were characterized by insignificant changes. The obtained data revealed a distinctive apoptotic changes in the young animal testes before spermatogenesis onset. An intensification of programmed death cells in the epithelium germinativum in the elder cats (between 3,6 and 6,10 years) was not observed. Apoptotic changes slightly intensified in cats aged between 12 and 36 months. [source] Effect of type of bait on pelagic longline fishery,loggerhead turtle interactions in the Gulf of Gabes (Tunisia)AQUATIC CONSERVATION: MARINE AND FRESHWATER ECOSYSTEMS, Issue 5 2010Khaled Echwikhi Abstract 1.Sea turtles may migrate vast distances from their feeding areas to home rookeries where they nest. During these migrations sea turtles are subject to many threats, among which are interactions with pelagic longlines. 2.This gear is used frequently in the summer period in the Gulf of Gabes targeting mainly the sandbar shark (Carcharhinus plumbeus). Hooks are baited with mackerel (Scomber scombrus) or pieces of stingray (Dasyatis pastinaca). 3.Twenty-one fishing trips (48 sets with a total of 35,950 hooks deployed) were conducted using onboard observers in the south of the Gulf of Gabes during the months of July, August and September in 2007 and 2008. Stingray and mackerel bait were used in 19 and 29 sets, respectively. 4.In total, 29 loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) were captured; the majority of them were juvenile and active. Turtles were caught at a statistically greater frequency on sets with hooks baited with mackerel than on sets with hooks baited with pieces of stingray. 5.The type of bait also affected the catch of the target species by increasing the efficiency when pieces of stingrays were used. 6.These results encourage further research into new baits to mitigate turtle catch by longline fisheries without affecting the catch of target species. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Statistical analysis of temperature impact on daily hospital admissions: analysis of data from Udine, ItalyENVIRONMETRICS, Issue 1 2006Francesco Pauli Abstract This article is devoted to the analysis of the relationship between the health status of an urban population and meteorological variables. The analysis considers daily number of hospital admissions, not due to surgery, regarding the population resident in the Municipality of Udine, aged 75 and over. Hourly records on temperature, humidity, rain, atmospheric pressure, solar radiation, wind velocity and direction recorded at an observation site located near the center of Udine are considered. The study also considers hourly measures of pollutant concentrations collected by six monitoring stations. All data are relative to the summer periods of years 1995,2003. Generalized additive models (GAM) are used in which the response variable is the number of hospital admissions and is assumed to be distributed as a Poisson whose rate varies as a possibly non-linear function of the meteorological variables and variables allowing for calendar effects and pollutant concentrations. The subsequent part of the analysis explores the distribution of temperature conditional on the number of daily admissions through quantile regression. A non-linear (N-shaped) relationship between hospital admissions and temperature is estimated; temperature at 07:00 is selected as a covariate, revealing that nighttime temperature is more relevant than daytime. The quantile regression analysis points out, as expected, that the distribution of temperature on days with more admissions has higher q -quantiles with q near unity, while a clear-cut conclusion is not reached for q quantiles with q near 0. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] The inclusion of exogenous variables in functional autoregressive ozone forecastingENVIRONMETRICS, Issue 7 2002Julien Damon Abstract In this article, we propose a new technique for ozone forecasting. The approach is functional, that is we consider stochastic processes with values in function spaces. We make use of the essential characteristic of this type of phenomenon by taking into account theoretically and practically the continuous time evolution of pollution. One main methodological enhancement of this article is the incorporation of exogenous variables (wind speed and temperature) in those models. The application is carried out on a six-year data set of hourly ozone concentrations and meteorological measurements from Béthune (France). The study examines the summer periods because of the higher values observed. We explain the non-parametric estimation procedure for autoregressive Hilbertian models with or without exogenous variables (considering two alternative versions in this case) as well as for the functional kernel model. The comparison of all the latter models is based on up-to-24 hour-ahead predictions of hourly ozone concentrations. We analyzed daily forecast curves upon several criteria of two kinds: functional ones, and aggregated ones where attention is put on the daily maximum. It appears that autoregressive Hilbertian models with exogenous variables show the best predictive power. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Incidence and characteristics of endemic Norwalk-like virus-associated gastroenteritisJOURNAL OF MEDICAL VIROLOGY, Issue 4 2003John A. Marshall Abstract Endemic gastroenteritis associated with the Norwalk-like viruses (NLVs) is little understood. This study tested for NLV in gastroenteritis cases in 257 households in Melbourne, Australia, for the period September 1997 to February 1999 by a reverse transcription hemi-nested polymerase chain reaction. Positive samples were studied by nucleotide sequencing and phylogenetic analysis. NLV was detected in 73 (11.4%) of 638 faecal specimens tested. Twelve (1.9%) were NLV genogroup 1 (G1) and 61 (9.6%) NLV genogroup 2 (G2). Gastroenteritis symptoms associated with NLV G2/no other pathogens were significantly more severe than where no NLV was detected. NLV G1 and NLV G2 were detected in adults and children, males and females. NLV G2 incidence showed a marked seasonal periodicity with significant peaks in the Australian late spring/early summer periods. NLV G1 seasonality was significantly different from that of NLV G2. Seven major NLV clusters were identified by phylogenetic analysis. J. Med. Virol. 69:568,578, 2003. © 2003 Wiley-Liss, Inc. [source] Variation in gametophyte dominance in populations of Chondrus verrucosus (Gigartinaceae, Rhodophyta)PHYCOLOGICAL RESEARCH, Issue 4 2008Alecia Bellgrove SUMMARY We describe the abundance, including spatial and temporal variability, of phases of the isomorphic Chondrus verrucosus Mikami from Japan. Chondrus verrucosus occurred in a dense (,90% cover) and temporally stable bed on a small, isolated rocky outcrop (Oyakoiwa) in Shizuoka Prefecture. Small vegetative fronds were always much more abundant than large vegetative and fertile fronds over the spring to late summer periods in 1999 and 2000. Over the same period, fertile carposporophytic fronds were generally more abundant than fertile tetrasporophytic fronds, and fertile male fronds appeared infrequently at low densities. Using the resorcinol-acetal test, we determined the proportion of gametophytes and tetrasporophytes in three populations of C. verrucosus: Oyakoiwa and Noroshi (Shizuoka) in the summers of 1999 and 2000 and Kamehana Point (Miyagi) in autumn 2000. All populations had a significantly higher proportion of gametophytes than tetrasporophytes in both years, although gametophytic proportions were lower at Noroshi (,70%) than at Oyakoiwa (,80%) and Kamehana Point (,97%). However, examination of all isolated individuals sampled on Noroshi showed equal proportions of each phase in 1999, but gametophyte dominance (74%) in 2000. Differences in dispersal and spore production between phases are discussed as mechanisms potentially contributing to variation in gametophyte dominance. [source] | |||||||||||||