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Sunspot Numbers (sunspot + number)

Distribution by Scientific Domains
Physics and Astronomy57%
Mathematics and Statistics28%

Selected Abstracts

Profile of the climate change in the Kingdom of Bahrain

ENVIRONMETRICS, Issue 8 2003
W. E. Alnaser
Abstract Long-term meteorological data from the Kingdom of Bahrain (1902 to 2001), along with other data from the Sultanate of Oman and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, were used to study the profile and the characteristics of the climate changes in the Kingdom of Bahrain. This article illustrates the possible effects of several factors, such as greenhouse gases (GHG), sunspot number, cosmic ray flux, planet conjunctions, the Earth's magnetic field, as well as volcanic eruption, on the profile of the climate change. In general, we found that the temperature variations, to a certain extent, are associated with the cyclic variations in sunspot number (the 11-year cycle), which in turn affect the pattern of the cosmic ray flux due to the distortion of the interplanetary magnetic field. The latter is believed to influence cloud formation. In addition, the discrepancy in the climate change pattern in Bahrain was also attributed to the combined effect of the high local level of CO2 emissions as well as that of other cooling gases in the region. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source]

Are solar cycles predictable?

ASTRONOMISCHE NACHRICHTEN, Issue 10 2007
M. Schüssler
Abstract Various methods (or recipes) have been proposed to predict future solar activity levels , with mixed success. Among these, some precursor methods based upon quantities determined around or a few years before solar minimum have provided rather high correlations with the strength of the following cycles. Recently, data assimilation with an advection-dominated (flux-transport) dynamo model has been proposed as a predictive tool, yielding remarkably high correlation coefficients. After discussing the potential implications of these results and the criticism that has been raised, we study the possible physical origin(s) of the predictive skill provided by precursor and other methods. It is found that the combination of the overlap of solar cycles and their amplitude-dependent rise time (Waldmeier's rule) introduces correlations in the sunspot number (or area) record, which account for the predictive skill of many precursor methods. This explanation requires no direct physical relation between the precursor quantity and the dynamo mechanism (in the sense of the Babcock-Leighton scheme or otherwise). (© 2007 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim) [source]

CLIMATIC VARIABILITY ALONG A NORTH,SOUTH TRANSECT OF FINLAND OVER THE LAST 500 YEARS: SIGNATURE OF SOLAR INFLUENCE OR INTERNAL CLIMATE OSCILLATIONS?

GEOGRAFISKA ANNALER SERIES A: PHYSICAL GEOGRAPHY, Issue 2 2008
MAXIM G. OGURTSOV
ABSTRACT. Statistical analysis of a multi-centennial dendrochronological proxy dataset of regional climate, constructed across the latitudinal gradient of 1000 km, was performed. It was shown that centennial (c. 100 year), tri-decadal (27-32 year), bi-decadal (17-23 year) and decadal (9-13 year) periodicities governed the climate variability in Finland over the last five centuries. Despite the fact that many of the climatic periodicities bore great resemblance to periodicities of solar cycles, little evidence of actual solar influence on Finnish climate was found when the climate proxy records were subjected to linear correlation analysis with sunspot numbers. Highly non-linear response of Northern Fennoscandian climate to solar forcing might be a cause of this result, as well as influence of terrestrial climatic processes (e.g. effect of other forcing factors and internal dynamics of regional climate). Our results show that the presence of internal climate variability at time-scales of solar activity might distort the solar signature in climatic data and complicate its detection. [source]

Bayesian Subset Model Selection for Time Series

JOURNAL OF TIME SERIES ANALYSIS, Issue 5 2004
N. K. Unnikrishnan
Abstract., This paper considers the problem of subset model selection for time series. In general, a few lags which are not necessarily continuous, explain lag structure of a time-series model. Using the reversible jump Markov chain technique, the paper develops a fully Bayesian solution for the problem. The method is illustrated using the self-exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR), bilinear and AR models. The Canadian lynx data, the Wolfe's sunspot numbers and Series A of Box and Jenkins (1976) are analysed in detail. [source]

Searching for mid-term variations in different aspects of solar activity , looking for probable common origins and studying temporal variations of magnetic polarities

MONTHLY NOTICES OF THE ROYAL ASTRONOMICAL SOCIETY, Issue 1 2007
E. Forgács-Dajka
ABSTRACT Several studies have examined the temporal variability of the solar activity, and many variations are reported in the literature. We also (re)analyse the statistical properties of the following kinds of data series of solar activity phenomena: magnetic synoptic charts, hemispherical relative sunspot numbers, solar flare index, coronal index, solar radio flux, interplanetary magnetic field and proton speed in the solar wind, in order to find common mid-term periods during solar cycles 21,23. As a new approach, we focus on the magnetic polarity relations and we define new quantities (e.g. magnetic positive,negative polarity asymmetry) to explore the connections between several aspects of the solar activity from different points of view. According to our survey, the mid-term periodicities (1,2 yr) are manifest in almost all data with the exception of the coronal index and the 10.7-cm solar flux data. In the case of these latter two we note that these surveys produce global data on the solar corona, so the Sun is studied on these bandwidths as a star. Besides these, with the accumulation of helioseismic data over the last 10 yr, it has become possible to study the temporal variation in the rotational rate residuals in tachocline region. In addition, we examine possible common origins of different activity markers and/or possible connections to differential rotation. [source]

Relationship between group sunspot numbers and Wolf sunspot numbers

ASTRONOMISCHE NACHRICHTEN, Issue 7 2010
K.J. Li
Abstract Continuous wavelet transform and cross-wavelet transform have been used to investigate the phase periodicity and synchrony of the monthly mean Wolf (Rz) and group (Rg) sunspot numbers during the period of June 1795 to December 1995. The Schwabe cycle is the only one common period in Rg and Rz, but it is not well-defined in case of cycles 5,7 of Rg and in case of cycles 5 and 6 of Rz. In fact, the Schwabe period is slightly different in Rg and Rz before cycle 12, but from cycle 12 onwards it is almost the same for the two time series. Asynchrony of the two time series is more obviously seen in cycles 5 and 6 than in the following cycles, and usually more obviously seen around the maximum time of a cycle than during the rest of the cycle. Rg is found to fit Rz better in both amplitudes and peak epoch during the minimum time time of a solar cycle than during the maximum time of the cycle, which should be caused by their different definition, and around the maximum time of a cycle, Rg is usually less than Rz. Asynchrony of Rg and Rz should somewhat agree with different sunspot cycle characteristics exhibited by themselves (© 2010 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim) [source]