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Study Estimates (study + estimate)
Selected AbstractsModel choice in time series studies of air pollution and mortalityJOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY: SERIES A (STATISTICS IN SOCIETY), Issue 2 2006Roger D. Peng Summary., Multicity time series studies of particulate matter and mortality and morbidity have provided evidence that daily variation in air pollution levels is associated with daily variation in mortality counts. These findings served as key epidemiological evidence for the recent review of the US national ambient air quality standards for particulate matter. As a result, methodological issues concerning time series analysis of the relationship between air pollution and health have attracted the attention of the scientific community and critics have raised concerns about the adequacy of current model formulations. Time series data on pollution and mortality are generally analysed by using log-linear, Poisson regression models for overdispersed counts with the daily number of deaths as outcome, the (possibly lagged) daily level of pollution as a linear predictor and smooth functions of weather variables and calendar time used to adjust for time-varying confounders. Investigators around the world have used different approaches to adjust for confounding, making it difficult to compare results across studies. To date, the statistical properties of these different approaches have not been comprehensively compared. To address these issues, we quantify and characterize model uncertainty and model choice in adjusting for seasonal and long-term trends in time series models of air pollution and mortality. First, we conduct a simulation study to compare and describe the properties of statistical methods that are commonly used for confounding adjustment. We generate data under several confounding scenarios and systematically compare the performance of the various methods with respect to the mean-squared error of the estimated air pollution coefficient. We find that the bias in the estimates generally decreases with more aggressive smoothing and that model selection methods which optimize prediction may not be suitable for obtaining an estimate with small bias. Second, we apply and compare the modelling approaches with the National Morbidity, Mortality, and Air Pollution Study database which comprises daily time series of several pollutants, weather variables and mortality counts covering the period 1987,2000 for the largest 100 cities in the USA. When applying these approaches to adjusting for seasonal and long-term trends we find that the Study's estimates for the national average effect of PM10 at lag 1 on mortality vary over approximately a twofold range, with 95% posterior intervals always excluding zero risk. [source] Coxsackie B virus serology and Type 1 diabetes mellitus: a systematic review of published case-control studiesDIABETIC MEDICINE, Issue 6 2004J. Green Abstract Background Enteroviruses, in particular Coxsackie B4, have been implicated in the aetiology of Type 1 diabetes mellitus, but the epidemiological evidence has not been systematically evaluated. Methods Systematic review of evidence from published controlled studies of the relationship between Coxsackie B virus serology and incident or prevalent Type 1 diabetes mellitus. Studies were identified through a Medline search (1966 to 2002), supplemented by references from identified papers and hand search of relevant journals. All studies (full papers, abstracts or letters) with data adequate for calculation of unadjusted odds ratios (with 95% confidence intervals) for Type 1 diabetes mellitus in relation to Coxsackie B virus serology were included. Results The review included 26 case-control studies; no cohort study met the inclusion criteria. Odds ratios for Type 1 diabetes mellitus in serology-positive vs. serology-negative subjects ranged from 0.2 to 22.3. For Coxsackie B (any serotype) 7/13 studies had point estimates significantly greater than 1.0 (P < 0.05). For Coxsackie B3, Coxsackie B4 and Coxsackie B5-specific assays, 1/11, 6/17 and 1/11 studies, respectively, had point estimates significantly greater than 1.0. Summary odds ratios were not calculated because of doubts about the validity of individual study estimates, heterogeneity between studies, and the possibility of publication bias. Conclusions The results of these studies are inconsistent and do not provide convincing evidence for or against an association between Coxsackie B virus infection and Type 1 diabetes mellitus. Better designed studies using effective assays are needed to resolve this important issue. [source] Mapping Growth into Economic DevelopmentAMERICAN JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS AND SOCIOLOGY, Issue 5 2004Has Elite Political Instability Mattered in Sub-Saharan Africa? The study finds that elite political instability (PI),the incidence of coups d'etat,has negatively influenced the mapping of GDP growth into economic development, measured as the algebraic difference in the United Nations Human Development Index, in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) between 1970 and 1985. Taking into account the additional adverse impact of PI on economic development through its deleterious influence on economic growth, the study estimates that PI has exacted a substantial toll in SSA's economic development. [source] A lower than expected adult Victorian community attack rate for pandemic (H1N1) 2009AUSTRALIAN AND NEW ZEALAND JOURNAL OF PUBLIC HEALTH, Issue 3 2010Nathan Grills Abstract Objectives: To determine the community seropositivity of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza in order to estimate immunity and the community attack rate. Methods: Selected clusters of participants (n=706) in the ,Victorian Health Monitor' (VHM), from whom blood samples were taken between August and October 2009, were tested opportunistically for antibodies to pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza virus. A titre of ,1:40 was chosen as the cut-off for recording seropositivity. The proportion (95% CI) of seropositive participants, aged 18 to <65 years of age, were computed for groups of census collection districts (CDs) across metropolitan Melbourne. Results: The observed pandemic (H1N1) 2009 seropositivity rates for all CDs tested in metropolitan Melbourne was 16.0% (95% CI:12.9-19.1%); in northern Melbourne subset was 14.4% (95% CI:12.4-16.3%); and in eastern subset was 16.2% (95% CI:9.7-22.6%). The pre-pandemic (H1N1) 2009 positivity rate was estimated at 6%. Conclusion: Given this study's estimate of 16.0% seropositivity in adults in metropolitan Melbourne, and given the WHO laboratory's estimate of 6% pre-pandemic positivity, the estimated adult community attack rate was 10% for metropolitan Melbourne. Implications: This community attack rate is lower than anticipated and suggests that levels of immunity to Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 might be lower than anticipated. Although limited by a low response rate of 34%, this study suggests low adult seropositivity, which may be useful for public health professionals when encouraging the community to get vaccinated. [source] | ||||||||||