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Selected AbstractsDevelopment of a New Comprehensive Ocean Atlas for Indian Ocean utilizing ARGO DataINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 2 2010B. Prasad Kumar Abstract The World Ocean Atlas (WOA), also termed ,Levitus Climatology', is a global ocean climatology containing monthly, seasonal and annual means of temperature (T) and salinity (S) fields at standard ocean depths. The monthly climatology for T and S is available for standard depths up to 1000 m. The database used in the preparation of this climatology (WOA) are historical records of Conductivity, Temperature and Depth (CTD) casts and other available marine observations collected in the past. The methodology used in preparation of this WOA is objective analysis which is essentially non-synoptic and widely scattered in the space domain. We understand that ARGO data has so far not been blended with WOA, nor has its impact for improving WOA climatology been attempted. Presently, with the wealth of marine data from ARGO profilers in the Indian Ocean, we propose a new approach to reconstruct T and S fields optimally utilizing the ARGO data. Here we develop a new model using Delaunay Tessellation with QHull algorithm delivering three-dimensional T and S fields from a non-uniform scattered database up to a depth of 1000 m. For gaps in a data-sparse region, we use all available quality-checked Ocean Station Data (OSD) and Profiling Float Data (PFL) information on T and S, in addition to the existing ARGO data. The initiative here was to replace WOA data points with realistic information from ARGO and in situ data, thereby producing a new climatology atlas. We demonstrate the robustness of our approach, and the final climatology on T and S is better compared with the existing state-of-the-art WOA. The advantage of the proposed methodology is the scope of improving the ocean atlas with the addition of more ARGO data in the near future. The clustered approach in modelling enables ocean parameter retrieval in geometrically disconnected regions with an option for hot restart. We believe that the new climatology will benefit the research community immensely. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Climate Variability in Regions of Amphibian DeclinesCONSERVATION BIOLOGY, Issue 4 2001Michael A. Alexander The reanalysis system merges observations from airplanes, land stations, satellites, ships, and weather balloons with output from a weather-forecast model to create global fields of atmospheric variables. Station data consisted of temperature and precipitation measured with thermometers and rain gauges at fixed locations. Temperatures were near normal in Colorado when the amphibian declines occurred in the 1970s, whereas in Central America temperatures were warmer than normal, especially during the dry season. The station data from Puerto Rico and Australia indicated that temperatures were above normal during the period of amphibian declines, but reanalysis did not show such a clear temperature signal. Although declines occurred while the temperature and precipitation anomalies in some of the regions were large and of extended duration, the anomalies were not beyond the range of normal variability. Thus, unusual climate, as measured by regional estimates of temperature and precipitation, is unlikely to be the direct cause of amphibian declines, but it may have indirectly contributed to them. Previous researchers have noted that the declines appear to have propagated from northwest to southeast from Costa Rica to Panama and from southeast to northwest in Queensland, Australia. Wind has the potential to transport pathogens that cause amphibian mortality. The mean direction of the near-surface winds tended to parallel the path of amphibian declines from July,October in Central America and from May,July in Australia. The wind direction was highly variable, however, and the propagation rate of amphibian declines was much slower than the mean wind speed. In addition, the most likely pathogen is a chytrid fungus that does not produce desiccation-resistant spores. Thus, if wind is involved in the propagation of amphibian declines, it is through a complex set of processes. Resumen: Exploramos la relación entre las declinaciones de anfibios y las variaciones climáticas en Colorado, E.U.A., Puerto Rico, Costa Rica/Panamá y Queensland, Australia por medio de dos fuentes de información: resultados "sistema de reanálisis" del Centro Nacional de Predicción Ambiental y datos de estaciones área-promedio. El sistema de reanálisis combina observaciones de aeroplanos, estaciones terrestres, satélites, barcos y globos climatológicos, con resultados de un modelo de predicción climatológica para crear campos globales de variables atmosféricas. Los datos de estaciones fueron de temperatura y precipitación medidos con termómetros y pluviómetros en localidades fijas. Las temperaturas fueron casi normales en Colorado cuando ocurrieron las declinaciones en la década de 1970, mientras que las temperaturas en Centro América fueron mayores a lo normal, especialmente durante la época de sequía. Los datos de estaciones en Puerto Rico y Australia indicaron que la temperatura fue mayor a la normal durante el período de declinación de anfibios, pero un nuevo análisis no mostró una señal de temperatura tan clara. Aunque las declinaciones ocurrieron mientras las anomalías de temperatura y precipitación fueron grandes y de duración prolongada en algunas de las regiones, las anomalías no rebasaron el rango de variabilidad normal. Por lo tanto, es poco probable que el clima inusual, medido por estimaciones regionales de temperatura y precipitación, sea la causa directa de las declinaciones de anfibios, pero pudo haber contribuido indirectamente a ellas. Investigaciones previas notan que las declinaciones parecen haberse propagado de noroeste a sureste de Costa Rica a Panamá y de sureste a noreste en Queensland, Australia. El viento tiene el potencial de transportar patógenos que causan mortalidad de anfibios. La dirección promedio de los vientos superficiales tendió a ser paralela al camino de las declinaciones de anfibios de julio a octubre en Centro América y de mayo a julio en Australia. Sin embargo, la dirección del viento fue altamente variable y la tasa de propagación de declinaciones de anfibios fue mucho más lenta que la velocidad promedio del viento. Adicionalmente, el patógeno más probable es un hongo quítrido que no produce esporas resistentes a la desecación. Por tanto, si el viento está implicado en la propagación de declinaciones de anfibios, lo es por medio de un complejo conjunto de procesos. [source] Winter energetics of Virginia opossums Didelphis virginiana and implications for the species' northern distributional limitECOGRAPHY, Issue 6 2005L. Leann KandaArticle first published online: 27 SEP 200 While climatic limitations are widely recognized as primary factors determining the distributions of many species, the physiological link between climate and species' persistence is poorly understood. The Virginia opossum Didelphis virginiana is a species for which winter energetics have been evaluated and a northern geographical limit has been hypothesized. Expansion of opossum populations beyond this limit, however, suggests that a previous winter energetics model requires modification. I update this energetics model by incorporating random foraging success to estimate the probability of opossum survival under varying winter temperature regimes. Estimation of opossum "success" for winters in Amherst, Massachusetts, since 1926 showed that juvenile females, the key breeding component of the population, would survive at a rate high enough to maintain a stable population in only 4 of the 77 yr. The model correctly predicted the fate of 13 of 14 opossums monitored in the Amherst area during the winters of 2000,2003. The current energetics model does not correctly predict autumn weight gain, but it does accurately estimate opossum winter survival. However, the model predicts that opossums should be winter-limited in areas such as Amherst, Massachusetts, where in fact they are well established. This discrepancy may be explained in three ways: weather station data do not adequately reflect available microclimates, opossums show high levels of flexibility in cold-weather foraging behavior, and most likely, humans provide food and shelter that mitigate the effect of winter. [source] Mapping snow characteristics based on snow observation probabilityINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 10 2007Bahram Saghafian Abstract Measurement/estimation of snow water equivalent (SWE) is a difficult task in water resources studies of snowy regions. SWE point data is measured at snow courses that are normally operated with low density owing to high costs and great difficulty in reaching the stations in cold seasons. Moreover, snow is known to exhibit high spatial variability, which makes SWE studies based solely on sparse station data more uncertain. Ever-increasing availability of satellite images is a promising tool to overcome some of the difficulties associated with analyzing spatial variability of snow. Although National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) satellite images have low spatial resolution with approximately 1.1-km pixel size, they are adequate for mapping snow cover at regional scales and enjoy a moderate length of record period. In this paper, rain and snow records of synoptic stations and the time series of NOAA-based snow cover maps were used to map average SWE of a vast area in southwestern Iran. First, monthly and annual snow coefficient (SC) at synoptic stations were determined on the basis of analysis of hourly observation of type and amount of precipitation. Then, two new spatially distributed snow characteristics were introduced, namely, average frequency of snow observation (FSO) and monthly frequency of maximum snow observation (FMSO), on the basis of existing satellite snow observations. FSO and monthly FMSO maps were prepared by a geographic information system on the basis of snow map time series. Correlation of these two parameters with SC was studied and spatial distribution of SC was estimated on the basis of the best correlation. Moreover, the distribution of mean annual precipitation was derived by comparing a number of interpolation methods. SWE map was generated by multiplying SC and precipitation maps and its spatial variability in the region was analyzed. Copyright © 2007 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Europe's 2003 heat wave: a satellite view of impacts and land,atmosphere feedbacksINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 6 2006Benjamin F. Zaitchik Abstract A combination of satellite imagery, meteorological station data, and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis has been used to explore the spatial and temporal evolution of the 2003 heat wave in France, with focus on understanding the impacts and feedbacks at the land surface. Vegetation was severely affected across the study area, especially in a swath across central France that corresponds to the Western European Broadleaf (WEB) Forests ecological zone. The remotely sensed surface temperature anomaly was also greatest in this zone, peaking at +15.4 °C in August. On a finer spatial scale, both the vegetation and surface temperature anomalies were greater for crops and pastures than for forested lands. The heat wave was also associated with an anomalous surface forcing of air temperature. Relative to other years in record, satellite-derived estimates of surface-sensible heat flux indicate an enhancement of 48,61% (24.0,30.5 W m,2) in WEB during the August heat wave maximum. Longwave radiative heating of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) was enhanced by 10.5 W m,2 in WEB for the same period. The magnitude and spatial structure of this local heating is consistent with models of the late twenty-first century climate in France, which predict a transitional climate zone that will become increasingly affected by summertime drought. Models of future climate also suggest that a soil-moisture feedback on the surface energy balance might exacerbate summertime drought, and these proposed feedback mechanisms were tested using satellite-derived heat budgets. Copyright © 2006 Royal Meteorological Society. [source] Trends in storminess over the Netherlands, 1962,2002INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 10 2005A. Smits Abstract Trends in the annual number of independent wind events over the Netherlands are studied for the period 1962,2002. The events are selected out of 13 hourly 10 m wind speed records that are part of a high quality dataset of near-surface wind observations at Dutch meteorological stations. Comparisons are made with trends in independent wind events selected from geostrophic wind speed records and reanalysis data. The results for moderate wind events (that occur on average 10 times per year) and strong wind events (that occur on average twice a year) indicate a decrease in storminess over the Netherlands between 5 and 10%/decade. This result is inconsistent with National Centers for Environmental Prediction,National Center for Atmospheric Research or European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis data, which suggest increased storminess during the same 41 year period. Possible explanations are given for the discrepancy between the trends in storminess based on station data and the trends in storminess based on reanalysis data. Evaluation of trends in geostrophic wind, both from station data and reanalysis data, and evaluation of trends in vector-averaged (upscaled) 10 m wind over the Netherlands point towards inhomogeneities in the reanalysis data as the main cause of the discrepancy. We conclude that it is likely that the decrease in storminess observed in Dutch station records of near-surface wind in the past four decades is closer to reality than the increase suggested by the reanalysis data. Copyright © 2005 Royal Meteorological Society. [source] The development of a new set of long-term climate averages for the UKINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 8 2005Matthew Perry Abstract Monthly and annual long-term average datasets of 13 climate variables are generated for the periods 1961,90 and 1971,2000 using a consistent analysis method. Values are produced for each station in the Met Office's observing network and for a rectangular grid of points covering the UK at a horizontal spacing of 1 km. The variables covered are mean, maximum, minimum, grass minimum and soil temperature, days of air and ground frost, precipitation, days with rain exceeding 0.2 and 1 mm, sunshine, and days with thunder and snow cover. Gaps in the monthly station data are filled with estimates obtained via regression relationships with a number of well-correlated neighbours, and long-term averages are then calculated for each site. Gridded datasets are created by inverse-distance-weighted interpolation of regression residuals obtained from the station averages. This method does not work well for days of frost, thunder and snow, so an alternative approach is used. This involves first producing a grid of values for each month from the available station data. The gridded long-term average datasets are then obtained by averaging the monthly grids. The errors associated with each stage in the process are assessed, including verification of the gridding stage by leaving out a set of stations. The estimation of missing values allows a dense network of stations to be used, and this, along with the range of independent variables used in the regression, allows detailed and accurate climate datasets and maps to be produced. The datasets have a range of applications, and the maps are freely available through the Met Office Website. © Crown Copyright 2005. Reproduced with the permission of Her Majesty's Stationery Office. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] A regional impact assessment of climate and land-use change on alpine vegetationJOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY, Issue 3 2003Thomas Dirnböck Abstract Aim, Assessing potential response of alpine plant species distribution to different future climatic and land-use scenarios. Location, Four mountain ranges totalling 150 km2 in the north-eastern Calcareous Alps of Austria. Methods, Ordinal regression models of eighty-five alpine plant species based on environmental constraints and land use determining their abundance. Site conditions are simulated spatially using a GIS, a Digital Terrain Model, meteorological station data and existing maps. Additionally, historical records were investigated to derive data on time spans since pastures were abandoned. This was then used to assess land-use impacts on vegetation patterns in combination with climatic changes. Results, A regionalized GCM scenario for 2050 (+ 0.65 °C, ,30 mm August precipitation) will only lead to local loss of potential habitat for alpine plant species. More profound changes (+ 2 °C, ,30 mm August precipitation; + 2 °C, ,60 mm August precipitation) however, will bring about a severe contraction of the alpine, non-forest zone, because of range expansion of the treeline conifer Pinus mugo Turra and many alpine species will loose major parts of their habitat. Precipitation change significantly influences predicted future habitat patterns, mostly by enhancing the general trend. Maintenance of summer pastures facilitates the persistence of alpine plant species by providing refuges, but existing pastures are too small in the area to effectively prevent the regional extinction risk of alpine plant species. Main conclusions, The results support earlier hypotheses that alpine plant species on mountain ranges with restricted habitat availability above the treeline will experience severe fragmentation and habitat loss, but only if the mean annual temperature increases by 2 °C or more. Even in temperate alpine regions it is important to consider precipitation in addition to temperature when climate impacts are to be assessed. The maintenance of large summer farms may contribute to preventing the expected loss of non-forest habitats for alpine plant species. Conceptual and technical shortcomings of static equilibrium modelling limit the mechanistic understanding of the processes involved. [source] The health of Arctic populations: Does cold matter?AMERICAN JOURNAL OF HUMAN BIOLOGY, Issue 1 2010T. Kue Young The objective of the study was to examine whether cold climate is associated with poorer health in diverse Arctic populations. With climate change increasingly affecting the Arctic, the association between climate and population health status is of public health significance. The mean January and July temperatures were determined for 27 Arctic regions based on weather station data for the period 1961,1990 and their association with a variety of health outcomes assessed by correlation and multiple linear regression analyses. Mean January temperature was inversely associated with infant and perinatal mortality rate, age-standardized mortality rate from respiratory diseases, and age-specific fertility rate for teens and directly associated with life expectancy at birth in both males and females, independent of a variety of socioeconomic, demographic, and health care factors. Mean July temperature was also associated with infant mortality and mortality from respiratory diseases, and with total fertility rate. For every 10°C increase in mean January temperature, the life expectancy at birth among males increased by about 6 years and infant mortality rate decreased by about 4 deaths/1,000 livebirths. Cold climate is significantly associated with higher mortality and fertility in Arctic populations and should be recognized in public health planning. Am. J. Hum. Biol., 2010. © 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc. [source] |