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Stock Index Returns (stock + index_return)

Distribution by Scientific Domains
Business, Economics, Finance and Accounting100%

Selected Abstracts

Mean Reversion and the Distribution of United Kingdom Stock Index Returns

JOURNAL OF BUSINESS FINANCE & ACCOUNTING, Issue 9-10 2006
David Ashton
Abstract:, Our purpose here is to develop the Pearson Type IV distribution as a candidate for modelling the evolution of short period stock index returns. Here, early work by Praetz (1972 and 1978) and Blattberg and Gonedes (1974) has shown that the scaled ,t' distribution, which is a particular (symmetric) interpretation of the Pearson Type IV, provides a reasonable description of the way stock index returns evolve over time. Our analysis shows this is certainly not the case for the daily stock index returns on which our empirical analysis is based. There is significant skewness in the data and this cannot be captured by symmetric distributions like the scaled ,t' and normal distributions. However, the Pearson Type IV, which is a skewed generalisation of the scaled ,t', is capable of modelling the skewness inherent in our data and in such a way that it satisfies asymptotically efficient goodness of fit criteria. Furthermore, the Pearson Type IV can be derived from a stochastic differential equation with standard Markov properties. This enables one to integrate the distributional and time series properties of the returns process and thereby, facilitates both the interpretation and understanding of the role played by the distribution's parameters in the generation of the underlying stock index returns. [source]

A High-Frequency Investigation of the Interaction between Volatility and DAX Returns

EUROPEAN FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT, Issue 3 2010
Philippe Masset
G10; G12; G13 Abstract One of the most noticeable stylised facts in finance is that stock index returns are negatively correlated with changes in volatility. The economic rationale for the effect is still controversial. The competing explanations have different implications for the origin of the relationship: Are volatility changes induced by index movements, or inversely, does volatility drive index returns? To differentiate between the alternative hypotheses, we analyse the lead-lag relationship of option implied volatility and index return in Germany based on Granger causality tests and impulse-response functions. Our dataset consists of all transactions in DAX options and futures over the time period from 1995 to 2005. Analyzing returns over 5-minute intervals, we find that the relationship is return-driven in the sense that index returns Granger cause volatility changes. This causal relationship is statistically and economically significant and can be clearly separated from the contemporaneous correlation. The largest part of the implied volatility response occurs immediately, but we also observe a smaller retarded reaction for up to one hour. A volatility feedback effect is not discernible. If it exists, the stock market appears to correctly anticipate its importance for index returns. [source]

Cash Flows and Discount Rates, Industry and Country Effects and Co-Movement in Stock Returns

FINANCIAL REVIEW, Issue 2 2007
John Ammer
F36; G15 Abstract We apply the Campbell decomposition to industry-by-country, national, global industry, and world stock index returns using 1995,2003 data. World, global industry, and country factors are all important for each of the two key components of stock returns: news about future dividends and news about future discount rates. Furthermore, the world component of future discount rates is more important than the idiosyncratic component, while the reverse is true for news about future dividends. Our results are broadly consistent with co-movement in future discount rates arising from perceptions of common elements of risk in international equity markets. [source]

Mean Reversion and the Distribution of United Kingdom Stock Index Returns

JOURNAL OF BUSINESS FINANCE & ACCOUNTING, Issue 9-10 2006
David Ashton
Abstract:, Our purpose here is to develop the Pearson Type IV distribution as a candidate for modelling the evolution of short period stock index returns. Here, early work by Praetz (1972 and 1978) and Blattberg and Gonedes (1974) has shown that the scaled ,t' distribution, which is a particular (symmetric) interpretation of the Pearson Type IV, provides a reasonable description of the way stock index returns evolve over time. Our analysis shows this is certainly not the case for the daily stock index returns on which our empirical analysis is based. There is significant skewness in the data and this cannot be captured by symmetric distributions like the scaled ,t' and normal distributions. However, the Pearson Type IV, which is a skewed generalisation of the scaled ,t', is capable of modelling the skewness inherent in our data and in such a way that it satisfies asymptotically efficient goodness of fit criteria. Furthermore, the Pearson Type IV can be derived from a stochastic differential equation with standard Markov properties. This enables one to integrate the distributional and time series properties of the returns process and thereby, facilitates both the interpretation and understanding of the role played by the distribution's parameters in the generation of the underlying stock index returns. [source]

Does an index futures split enhance trading activity and hedging effectiveness of the futures contract?

THE JOURNAL OF FUTURES MARKETS, Issue 12 2006
Lars Nordén
Recently, several stock index futures exchanges have experimented with an altered contract design to make the contract more attractive and to increase investor accessibility. In 1998, the Swedish futures exchange (OM) split the OMX-index futures contract with a factor of 4:1, without altering any other aspect of the futures contract design. This isolated contract redesign enables a ceteris paribus analysis of the effects of a futures split. The purpose is to investigate whether the futures split affects the futures market trading activity, as well as hedging effectiveness and basis risk of the futures contract. A bivariate GARCH framework is used to jointly model stock index returns and changes in the futures basis, and to obtain measures of hedging efficiency and basis risk. Significantly increased hedging efficiency and lower relative basis risk is found following the split. In addition, evidence of an increased trading volume is found after the split, whereas the futures bid-ask spread appears to be unaffected by the split. The results are consistent with the idea that the futures split has enhanced trading activity and hedging effectiveness of the futures contract, without raising the costs of transacting at the futures market. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 26:1169,1194, 2006 [source]