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Species Distribution Modelling (species + distribution_modelling)
Selected AbstractsBiogeography meets conservation: the genetic structure of the endangered lycaenid butterfly Lycaena helle (Denis & Schiffermüller, 1775)BIOLOGICAL JOURNAL OF THE LINNEAN SOCIETY, Issue 1 2010JAN CHRISTIAN HABEL Cold-adapted species are thought to have had their largest distribution ranges in central Europe during the glacial periods. Postglacial warming caused severe range shifts of such taxa into higher latitudes and altitudes. We selected the boreomontane butterfly Lycaena helle (Denis & Schiffermüller, 1775) as an example to demonstrate the genetic effects of range changes, and to document the recent status of highly fragmented remnant populations. We analysed five polymorphic microsatellite loci in 1059 individuals sampled at 50 different localities scattered over the European distribution area of the species. Genetic differentiation was strong among the mountain ranges of western Europe, but we did not detect similarly distinct genetic groups following a geographical pattern in the more eastern areas. The Fennoscandian populations form a separate genetic group, and provide evidence for a colonization from southern Finland via northern Scandinavia to south-central Sweden. Species distribution modelling suggests a large extension of the spatial distribution during the last glacial maximum, but highlights strong retractions to a few mountain areas under current conditions. These findings, combined with our genetic data, suggest a more or less continuous distribution of L. helle throughout central Europe at the end of the last ice age. As a consequence of postglacial warming, the species retreated northwards to Fennoscandia and escaped increasing temperatures through altitudinal shifts. Therefore, the species is today restricted to population remnants located at the mountain tops of western Europe, genetically isolated from each other, and evolved into genetically unique entities. Rising temperatures and advancing habitat destruction threaten this wealth of biodiversity. © 2010 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2010, 101, 155,168. [source] Conservation biogeography , foundations, concepts and challengesDIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS, Issue 3 2010David M. Richardson Abstract Conservation biogeography involves the application of biogeographical principles, theories, and analyses to problems regarding biodiversity conservation. The field was formally defined in 2005, and considerable research has been conducted in the ensuing 5 years. This editorial sets the context for 16 contributions in a special issue of Diversity and Distributions on developments and challenges in conservation biogeography. Papers are grouped into the following main themes: species distribution modelling; data requirements; approaches for assigning conservation priorities; approaches for integrating information from numerous disparate sources; special challenges involving invasive species; and the crucial issue of determining how elements of biodiversity are likely to respond to rapid climate change. One paper provides a synthesis of requirements for a robust conservation biogeography for freshwater ecosystems. Conservation biogeography is well poised to make a significant contribution to the process of providing policy makers with objectively formulated scenarios and options for the effective management of biodiversity. The editorial, and the papers in the special issue, deliberate on many of the exciting developments in play in the field, and the many complex challenges that lie ahead. [source] Effects of species and habitat positional errors on the performance and interpretation of species distribution modelsDIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS, Issue 4 2009Patrick E. Osborne Abstract Aim, A key assumption in species distribution modelling is that both species and environmental data layers contain no positional errors, yet this will rarely be true. This study assesses the effect of introduced positional errors on the performance and interpretation of species distribution models. Location, Baixo Alentejo region of Portugal. Methods, Data on steppe bird occurrence were collected using a random stratified sampling design on a 1-km2 pixel grid. Environmental data were sourced from satellite imagery and digital maps. Error was deliberately introduced into the species data as shifts in a random direction of 0,1, 2,3, 4,5 and 0,5 pixels. Whole habitat layers were shifted by 1 pixel to cause mis-registration, and the cumulative effect of one to three shifted layers investigated. Distribution models were built for three species using three algorithms with three replicates. Test models were compared with controls without errors. Results, Positional errors in the species data led to a drop in model performance (larger errors having larger effects , typically up to 10% drop in area under the curve on average), although not enough for models to be rejected. Model interpretation was more severely affected with inconsistencies in the contributing variables. Errors in the habitat layers had similar although lesser effects. Main conclusions, Models with species positional errors are hard to detect, often statistically good, ecologically plausible and useful for prediction, but interpreting them is dangerous. Mis-registered habitat layers produce smaller effects probably because shifting entire layers does not break down the correlation structure to the same extent as random shifts in individual species observations. Spatial autocorrelation in the habitat layers may protect against species positional errors to some extent but the relationship is complex and requires further work. The key recommendation must be that positional errors should be minimised through careful field design and data processing. [source] Applying climatically associated species pools to the modelling of compositional change in tropical montane forestsGLOBAL ECOLOGY, Issue 2 2008Duncan J. Golicher ABSTRACT Aim, Predictive species distribution modelling is a useful tool for extracting the maximum amount of information from biological collections and floristic inventories. However, in many tropical regions records are only available from a small number of sites. This can limit the application of predictive modelling, particularly in the case of rare and endangered species. We aim to address this problem by developing a methodology for defining and mapping species pools associated with climatic variables in order to investigate potential species turnover and regional species loss under climate change scenarios combined with anthropogenic disturbance. Location, The study covered an area of 6800 km2 in the highlands of Chiapas, southern Mexico. Methods, We derived climatically associated species pools from floristic inventory data using multivariate analysis combined with spatially explicit discriminant analysis. We then produced predictive maps of the distribution of tree species pools using data derived from 451 inventory plots. After validating the predictive power of potential distributions against an independent historical data set consisting of 3105 botanical collections, we investigated potential changes in the distribution of tree species resulting from forest disturbance and climate change. Results, Two species pools, associated with moist and cool climatic conditions, were identified as being particularly threatened by both climate change and ongoing anthropogenic disturbance. A change in climate consistent with low-emission scenarios of general circulation models was shown to be sufficient to cause major changes in equilibrium forest composition within 50 years. The same species pools were also found to be suffering the fastest current rates of deforestation and internal forest disturbance. Disturbance and deforestation, in combination with climate change, threaten the regional distributions of five tree species listed as endangered by the IUCN. These include the endemic species Magnolia sharpii Miranda and Wimmeria montana Lundell. Eleven vulnerable species and 34 species requiring late successional conditions for their regeneration could also be threatened. Main conclusions, Climatically associated species pools can be derived from floristic inventory data available for tropical regions using methods based on multivariate analysis even when data limitations prevent effective application of individual species modelling. Potential consequences of climate change and anthropogenic disturbance on the species diversity of montane tropical forests in our study region are clearly demonstrated by the method. [source] National review of state wildlife action plans for Odonata species of greatest conservation needINSECT CONSERVATION AND DIVERSITY, Issue 2 2010JASON T. BRIED Abstract., 1.,The overarching goal of United States wildlife action plans is to prevent wildlife from becoming endangered or declining to levels where recovery becomes unlikely. Effective plan implementation depends on establishing Species of Greatest Conservation Need (SGCN), defined as wildlife species with small or declining populations or other characteristics that make them vulnerable. 2.,Although nearly two-thirds of distinct Odonata species known from the U.S. (441 species as of 2005) were appointed as SGCN, over half the states neglected to assign dragonfly SGCN, damselfly SGCN, or both. Western and southern states listed proportionately fewer odonate SGCN than states of the Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and New England regions, apparently reflecting geographic patterns of legal authority, available information, and involvement by Odonata specialists. 3.,Greater consultation of Odonata specialists is encouraged in any revision of state wildlife action plans, along with increased: (i) use of existing conservation lists, (ii) inferences from field guides and major faunal synopses, (iii) recognition of patterns of endemism, and (iv) application of empirical species distribution modelling. 4.,Legal and management restrictions aside, insects and other invertebrates are often neglected in mainstream conservation efforts because they are perceived as understudied. It is erroneous to assume ,not enough information' exists for well-studied microfauna such as Odonata and doing so further undermines the conservation of less conspicuous and charismatic taxa. [source] The influence of spatial errors in species occurrence data used in distribution modelsJOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY, Issue 1 2008Catherine H Graham Summary 1Species distribution modelling is used increasingly in both applied and theoretical research to predict how species are distributed and to understand attributes of species' environmental requirements. In species distribution modelling, various statistical methods are used that combine species occurrence data with environmental spatial data layers to predict the suitability of any site for that species. While the number of data sharing initiatives involving species' occurrences in the scientific community has increased dramatically over the past few years, various data quality and methodological concerns related to using these data for species distribution modelling have not been addressed adequately. 2We evaluated how uncertainty in georeferences and associated locational error in occurrences influence species distribution modelling using two treatments: (1) a control treatment where models were calibrated with original, accurate data and (2) an error treatment where data were first degraded spatially to simulate locational error. To incorporate error into the coordinates, we moved each coordinate with a random number drawn from the normal distribution with a mean of zero and a standard deviation of 5 km. We evaluated the influence of error on the performance of 10 commonly used distributional modelling techniques applied to 40 species in four distinct geographical regions. 3Locational error in occurrences reduced model performance in three of these regions; relatively accurate predictions of species distributions were possible for most species, even with degraded occurrences. Two species distribution modelling techniques, boosted regression trees and maximum entropy, were the best performing models in the face of locational errors. The results obtained with boosted regression trees were only slightly degraded by errors in location, and the results obtained with the maximum entropy approach were not affected by such errors. 4Synthesis and applications. To use the vast array of occurrence data that exists currently for research and management relating to the geographical ranges of species, modellers need to know the influence of locational error on model quality and whether some modelling techniques are particularly robust to error. We show that certain modelling techniques are particularly robust to a moderate level of locational error and that useful predictions of species distributions can be made even when occurrence data include some error. [source] Can remote sensing of land cover improve species distribution modelling?JOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY, Issue 7 2008Bethany A. Bradley No abstract is available for this article. [source] Distribution modelling and statistical phylogeography: an integrative framework for generating and testing alternative biogeographical hypothesesJOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY, Issue 11 2007Corinne L. Richards Abstract Statistical phylogeographic studies contribute to our understanding of the factors that influence population divergence and speciation, and that ultimately generate biogeographical patterns. The use of coalescent modelling for analyses of genetic data provides a framework for statistically testing alternative hypotheses about the timing and pattern of divergence. However, the extent to which such approaches contribute to our understanding of biogeography depends on how well the alternative hypotheses chosen capture relevant aspects of species histories. New modelling techniques, which explicitly incorporate spatio-geographic data external to the gene trees themselves, provide a means for generating realistic phylogeographic hypotheses, even for taxa without a detailed fossil record. Here we illustrate how two such techniques , species distribution modelling and its historical extension, palaeodistribution modelling , in conjunction with coalescent simulations can be used to generate and test alternative hypotheses. In doing so, we highlight a few key studies that have creatively integrated both historical geographic and genetic data and argue for the wider incorporation of such explicit integrations in biogeographical studies. [source] Glacial refugia of temperate trees in Europe: insights from species distribution modellingJOURNAL OF ECOLOGY, Issue 6 2008Jens-Christian Svenning Summary 1The Pleistocene is an important period for assessing the impact of climate change on biodiversity. During the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 21 000 years ago), large glaciers and permafrost reached far south in Europe. Trees are traditionally thought to have survived only in scattered Mediterranean refugia (southern refugia hypothesis), but a recent proposal suggests that trees may have been much more widely and northerly distributed (northern refugia hypothesis). 2In this study, the southern vs. northern refugia hypotheses were investigated by estimating the potential LGM distributions of 7 boreal and 15 nemoral widespread European tree species using species distribution modelling. The models were calibrated using data for modern species distributions and climate and projected onto two LGM climate simulations for Europe. Five modelling variants were implemented. 3Models with moderate to good predictive ability for current species range limits and species richness patterns were developed. 4Broadly consistent results were obtained irrespective of the climate simulation and modelling variant used. Our results indicate that LGM climatic conditions suitable for boreal species existed across Central and Eastern Europe and into the Russian Plain. In contrast, suitable climatic conditions for nemoral tree species were largely restricted to the Mediterranean and Black Sea regions. Large proportions of these northern and southern regions would have been suitable for a number of boreal or boreal plus nemoral tree species, respectively. 5These findings are consistent with recent palaeoecological and phylogeographic data regarding LGM distributions of trees and other boreal and nemoral taxa. 6Synthesis. It is clear that the view of the LGM landscape in Europe as largely treeless, especially north of the Alps, needs to be revised. Trees were probably much more widespread during the LGM than hitherto thought, although patchily distributed at low densities due to low atmospheric CO2 concentrations and high wind-speeds. The findings presented here help explain the occurrence of mammal assemblages with mixtures of forest, tundra and steppe species at many localities in southern Central and Eastern Europe during the LGM, as well as the phylogeographic evidence for the extra-Mediterranean persistence of many boreal species. [source] Fading of the last giants: an assessment of habitat availability of the Sunda gharial Tomistoma schlegelii and coverage with protected areasAQUATIC CONSERVATION: MARINE AND FRESHWATER ECOSYSTEMS, Issue 6 2010Dennis Rödder Abstract 1.The Sunda gharial Tomistoma schlegelii is, with 2500,3000 remaining specimens, one of the least studied and at the same time most endangered crocodile species. Inhabiting peat swamps in Southeast Asia, threats affecting the species are mainly associated with habitat loss and illegal hunting. 2.The effectiveness of the existing reserve network in Southeast Asia for the protection of the Sunda garial was assessed by combining spatially explicit habitat analyses derived from land cover information with species distribution modelling. Subsequently, possible improvements of the existing reserve network are derived from the habitat availability analyses. 3.The results of the spatially explicit analyses indicate that suitable habitats for the Sunda gharial in Southeast Asia, i.e. peat swamps and riverine forests, are highly fragmented. Spatial coverage of remaining habitats with protected areas fulfilling IUCN standards generally varies among regions and is best in Indonesia. However, large, currently unprotected suitable areas remain in Sumatra. Establishment of 10 additional, already proposed reserves may improve the protection of major parts of the remaining suitable habitats of the Sunda gharial. 4.According to the results of this study, the reserve network protecting this species could be significantly improved by expanding it to include seven national reserves not currently listed by the IUCN and an additional 10 reserves that have recently been proposed. Improvements and extensions of the existing reserve networks in Southeast Asia are pivotal to guarantee the long-term survival of the Sunda gharial. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Species' diversity in the New Caledonian endemic genera Cephalidiosus and Nobarnus (Insecta: Heteroptera: Tingidae), an approach using phylogeny and species' distribution modellingBIOLOGICAL JOURNAL OF THE LINNEAN SOCIETY, Issue 1 2009J. MURIENNE The patterns of local endemism in New Caledonia were analysed in two endemic genera of Tingidae (Insecta, Heteroptera), Cephalidiosus and Nobarnus, through a phylogenetic analysis and species' distribution modelling. The aim was to determine the possible causes of diversification and endemism in New Caledonia. Our results show that environmental conditions are probably important for the distribution of the genus Cephalidiosus, in conjunction with other factors such as resource (host plant) distribution, but suggest that the same environmental conditions have not influenced the speciation processes and diversification in the genus. © 2009 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2009, 97, 177,184. [source] | ||||||||||