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Spatial Behaviour (spatial + behaviour)
Selected AbstractsStatistical modelling in the investigation of stranger rapeJOURNAL OF INVESTIGATIVE PSYCHOLOGY AND OFFENDER PROFILING, Issue 1 2010Mirjam ter Beek Abstract A sample of stranger rape offences (n = 271) registered in the Dutch Violence Crime Linkage Analysis System database in the Netherlands between 1997 and 2007 was studied with the objective of developing statistical models, which give an indication of the probability of basic offender characteristics. Observable crime characteristics concerning the modus operandi, interaction between the offender and the victim, violence, precautionary measures, and sexual behaviours were selected in the dataset. Offender characteristics were selected based on their usefulness for the police organisation in narrowing the scope of a criminal investigation. Spatial behaviour, criminal history, and living situation of the offender were selected. From the predictive models, four out of five achieved a correct rate of over 70%, and all models predicted better than the best guess method. The proposed models for distance and prior convictions for violence seem particularly promising. Both these models show an improvement of correctly predicted offender characteristics of more than 20 percentile points compared with that which could have been estimated based on the average in the total sample. The predictive value of the models needs to be tested further with ,new offences', which were not used to construct the model. In general, the current study supports the finding that crime characteristics can be used to get an indication of the probability of certain offender characteristics. Nevertheless, for an understanding of the relationship between the crime characteristics and offender characteristics, a further development of a theoretical framework is urgently necessary. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] The spatial and temporal behaviour of the lower stratospheric temperature over the Southern Hemisphere: the MSU view.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 4 2001Part II: spatial behaviour Abstract Monthly lower stratosphere temperature anomalies in a layer centred about 70 hPa, from the MSU data set are analysed for the period 1979,1997. T-mode approach principal component analysis (PCA) is used in order to obtain the leading spatial anomaly patterns and their sequences of occurrence throughout the period under study. Five principal components (PCs) are significantly different from the spatial distribution of noisy data. The patterns given by the PC scores represent ten typical spatial anomaly patterns: five correspond to the direct mode, that is to say anomaly fields with the same sign as the PC score patterns, and five have the opposite sign. The first three PCs represent simple spatial temperature anomaly distributions, with zonal wave 0 to wave 2 wave structures. The following significant PCs, orders four and five, display a more complex spatial behaviour, with wave 3 wave structures. The first two PC's frequency distribution in time, given by the PC loadings time series, do not show noticeable changes throughout the period analysed. The remaining three PCs show changes in their frequency of occurrence that might be associated with the negative trends in the lower stratosphere temperature, as well as to the other different features observed in the real temperature anomaly time series for the grid points in the Southern Hemisphere. The latter are studied with the PCA in the S-mode approach in the companion paper (Compagnucci et al., 2001. International Journal of Climatology21: 419,437). Copyright © 2001 Royal Meteorological Society [source] To link or not to link: a test of the case linkage principles using serial car theft dataJOURNAL OF INVESTIGATIVE PSYCHOLOGY AND OFFENDER PROFILING, Issue 1-2 2008Matthew Tonkin Abstract The purpose of the present study is to test the case linkage principles of behavioural consistency and behavioural distinctiveness using serial vehicle theft data. Data from 386 solved vehicle thefts committed by 193 offenders were analysed using Jaccard's, regression and Receiver Operating Characteristic analyses to determine whether objectively observable aspects of crime scene behaviour could be used to distinguish crimes committed by the same offender from those committed by different offenders. The findings indicate that spatial behaviour, specifically the distance between theft locations and between dump locations, is a highly consistent and distinctive aspect of vehicle theft behaviour; thus, intercrime and interdump distance represent the most useful aspects of vehicle theft for the purpose of case linkage analysis. The findings have theoretical and practical implications for understanding of criminal behaviour and for the development of decision-support tools to assist police investigation and apprehension of serial vehicle theft offenders. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Spatial patterns of Indian serial burglars with relevance to geographical profilingJOURNAL OF INVESTIGATIVE PSYCHOLOGY AND OFFENDER PROFILING, Issue 2 2006Sudhanshu Sarangi Abstract Earlier studies in Western countries have shown remarkably consistent spatial patterns in serial offenders, mainly for serious crimes notably serial killing and rape, but also (although with less clear patterns) for burglary. The universality of such spatial patterns are of theoretical interest in contributing to our understanding of criminal spatial behaviour and have practical significance for the possibility of using geographic profiling in developing countries. As such, burglars in India provide a particularly interesting test of the generality of the observed spatial consistencies. Information was therefore obtained on the offence location choices of 30 burglars, committing 150 offences in the Rourkela and Keonjhar districts of India. The home to crime distances were compared with those from developed countries, revealing similar but slightly shorter distances. In addition, the domocentricity of criminal spatial activity, reflected in the ,marauder' model (Canter & Gregory 1994) was tested through examination of the Canter Circle hypothesis, the mean interpoint distances (as they related to average distances from home), and the home base ,search costs' using a geographical profiling system (Dragnet). Overall the study found that the spatial patterns of the sample of Indian Burglars were not very different from their counterparts in the UK, North America and Australia, showing that the areas in which an offender is active tend to be shaped by, and, relatedly, close to, where he or she lives, irrespective of the part of the world in which this is. These results suggest that geographical profiling systems such as Dragnet would be productively used on the Indian sub-continent. The results also contribute to our understanding of possible universalities in offender spatial behaviour. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Anti-predator behaviour, space use and habitat selection in female roe deer during the fawning season in a wolf areaJOURNAL OF ZOOLOGY, Issue 3 2008P. Bongi Abstract This study investigated the anti-predator strategies adopted by 19 radio-collared female roe deer during the fawning season by monitoring their spatial behaviour and habitat selection by means of radio-tracking. The study was carried out in a forest area of the Apennine Mountains (central Italy), where wolves are natural predators of roe deer and in summer fawns are more frequently predated than adult roe deer. The presence of fawns was monitored by means of direct observations. Roe deer fawns are known to adopt the hiding strategy during the lactation period, when they lie concealed for long periods waiting for their mothers' milk. As a consequence of this, the home-range sizes of mothers were significantly smaller than those of non-mothers during the summer lactation only. In contrast, no significant difference was found in spring, when fawns were absent, or autumn, when they were already weaned. In order to increase the success of the hiding strategy adopted by their fawns against wolf predation, mothers selected denser habitats (deciduous coppice forests) that provided denser undergrowth vegetation and limited visibility. In doing so, mothers traded open areas for forests throughout the fawning season. Indeed, mothers made significant habitat selection throughout the monitored period, and this was marked after the birth of fawns. In contrast, non-mothers generally used habitat types according to their availability. During lactation, the correlation between habitat use by mothers and habitat visibility (assessed using the form of a standard-sized roe deer) was inversely significant. These results taken together highlight the importance of anti-predator strategies adopted by roe deer mothers during the critical phase for fawn survival. [source] Assessing the spatial and temporal variation in the skill of precipitation forecasts from an NWP modelMETEOROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS, Issue 1 2008Nigel Roberts Abstract It is becoming increasingly important to be able to verify the spatial accuracy of precipitation forecasts, especially with the advent of high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. In this article, the fractions skill score (FSS) approach has been used to perform a scale-selective evaluation of precipitation forecasts during 2003 from the Met Office mesoscale model (12 km grid length). The investigation shows how skill varies with spatial scale, the scales over which the data assimilation (DA) adds most skill, and how the loss of that skill is dependent on both the spatial scale and the rainfall coverage being examined. Although these results come from a specific model, they demonstrate how this verification approach can provide a quantitative assessment of the spatial behaviour of new finer-resolution models and DA techniques. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society [source] | ||||||||||