Home  About us  Contact
 

Solvency Risk (solvency + risk)

Distribution by Scientific Domains
Business, Economics, Finance and Accounting75%

Selected Abstracts

The Interaction of Solvency with Liquidity and its Association with Bankruptcy Emergence

JOURNAL OF BUSINESS FINANCE & ACCOUNTING, Issue 7-8 2002
Daniel M. Bryan
Prior research has shown that accounting information available prior to a bankruptcy is associated with the likelihood of bankruptcy. We show that additionally, the accounting information available prior to bankruptcy is associated with whether or not a firm will emerge from bankruptcy. We predict that firms that exhibit low solvency risk and high liquidity risk are most likely to emerge from bankruptcy. Firms that exhibit high solvency risk and high liquidity risk are predicted to be least likely to emerge from bankruptcy. Cross,sectionally, our results support these predictions, but our findings differ across large and small firms. [source]

Pension Valuation Under Uncertainties: Implementation of a Stochastic and Dynamic Monitoring System

JOURNAL OF RISK AND INSURANCE, Issue 2 2002
Shih-Chieh Chang
Financial soundness and funding stability are two critical issues in pension fund management. First, we construct a generalized stochastic model to monitor the solvency risk and cash flow dynamics of the defined benefit pension plan. A semi-Markov process proposed by Dominicis et al. (1991) and Janssen and Manca (1997) is employed in structuring the transition pattern of the plan's population, and the economic-based factors are generated through plausible stochastic processes. Modifications according to classification and movements of the plan member and the plan's turnover pattern are also employed to improve its practical usefulness. Then the actuarial valuations, cash flow analyses, and workforce projection are performed and investigated. Second, we explicitly formulate the plan dynamics and implement the proposed mechanism into a risk management framework for pension management. By employing the stochastic and dynamic approach, the cost factors can be monitored throughout the valuation process. Third, we outline the procedure of implementing the proposed methodology into a monitoring system. Finally, the Taiwan Public Employees Retirement System is simplified to illustrate techniques in achieving risk management goals. [source]

Temporal aggregation of Markov-switching financial return models

APPLIED STOCHASTIC MODELS IN BUSINESS AND INDUSTRY, Issue 3 2009
Wai-Sum Chan
Abstract In this paper we investigate the effects of temporal aggregation of a class of Markov-switching models known as Markov-switching normal (MSN) models. The growing popularity of the MSN processes in modelling financial returns can be attributed to their inherited flexibility characteristics, allowing for heteroscedasticity, asymmetry and excess kurtosis. The distributions of the process described by the basic MSN model and the model of the corresponding temporal aggregate data are derived. They belong to a general class of mixture normal distributions. The limiting behaviour of the aggregated MSN model, as the order of aggregation tends to infinity, is studied. We provide explicit formulae for the volatility, autocovariance, skewness and kurtosis of the aggregated processes. An application of measuring solvency risk with MSN models for horizons larger than 1 year and up to 10 years from the baseline U.S. S&P 500 stock market total return time series spanning about 50 years is given. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source]

From Public To Private: Evidence From a Transitional Economy Setting

AUSTRALIAN ACCOUNTING REVIEW, Issue 3 2009
Tyrone M. Carlin
The literature on public financial management reform has devoted comparatively little attention to the detail and effect of reform process implementation in developing economies. This study contributes to an understanding of this phenomenon by examining the impact of privatisation on a sample of previously state-owned enterprises in Vietnam. Using a detailed, financially focused methodology and drawing on data sourced from audited general purpose financial statements, our analysis suggests evidence of material variation in financial performance and position post-privatisation compared to the position observed immediately prior to privatisation. Specifically, our data suggest that after being privatised, firms generally exhibit reductions in profitability, some degree of improvement in working capital management, an increase in financial leverage accompanied by a higher degree of solvency risk and greater calls on cash resources for the purpose of funding capital expenditure. Our results assist with understanding the impact of privatisation as a reform technique in developing economies, and may help policymakers and managers better target areas of likely risk, during the process of transition from public to private ownership. [source]