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Simulation Exercise (simulation + exercise)
Selected AbstractsDebt management in Brazil: evaluation of the real plan and challenges aheadINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FINANCE & ECONOMICS, Issue 1 2002Afonso S. Bevilaqua Abstract The Brazilian domestic debt has posed two challenges to policy-makers: it has grown very fast and its maturity is extremely short. This has prompted fears that a default or a compulsory lengthening scheme would be imposed. Here, we analyse the domestic public debt management experience in Brazil, searching for policy prescriptions for the next few years. After briefly reviewing the recent domestic public debt history, we decompose the large rise in federal bonded debt during 1995,2000, searching for its macroeconomic causes. The main culprits are the extremely high interest payments,which, until 1998, were caused by the weak fiscal stance and the quasi-fixed exchange-rate regime; and since 1999, by the impact of the currency depreciation on the dollar-indexed and the external debt,, and the accumulation of assets of doubtful value, much of which may have to be written off in the future. Simulation exercises of the net debt path for the near future underscore the importance of a tighter fiscal stance to prevent the debt-GDP ratio from growing further. Given the need to quickly lengthen the debt maturity, our main policy advice is to foster, and rely more on, inflation-linked bonds. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS IN LOCAL HOUSING MARKETS: EVIDENCE FROM U.S. METROPOLITAN REGIONSJOURNAL OF REGIONAL SCIENCE, Issue 3 2006Min Hwang ABSTRACT This paper investigates the effects of national and regional economic conditions on outcomes in the single-family housing market: housing prices, vacancies, and residential construction activity. Our three-equation model confirms the importance of changes in regional economic conditions, income, and employment on local housing markets. The results also provide the first detailed evidence on the importance of vacancies in the owner-occupied housing market on housing prices and supplier activities. The results also document the importance of variations in materials, labor and capital costs, and regulation in affecting new supply. Simulation exercises, using standard impulse response models, document the lags in market responses to exogenous shocks and the variations arising from differences in local parameters. The results also suggest the importance of local regulation in affecting the pattern of market responses to regional income shocks. [source] Dealing with Timing and Synchronization in Opportunities for Joint Activity ParticipationGEOGRAPHICAL ANALYSIS, Issue 3 2010Tijs Neutens The ability of people to access opportunities offered by the built environment is circumscribed by various sets of space,time constraints, including the requirements to meet other persons at particular times and places to undertake activities together. While models of space,time accessibility recognize that joint activities may constrain the performance of activities in space and time, their specifications do not explicitly acknowledge the opportunities that individuals of a group have for joint activity participation. Therefore, this article focuses on joint activity participation and argues that collective activity decisions are the outcome of a complex process involving various aspects of timing, synchronization, and social hierarchy. The utility-theoretic model proposed here quantifies the extent to which opportunities can be jointly accessed by a particular group of people within a specific time period. Central to the approach are three key variables: the attractiveness of an opportunity, the time available for activity participation, and the travel time to an activity location. Because of the multiperson character of joint activities, the determination of these variables is subject to individual preferences, privileges, and power differentials within a group. Specific attention is given to how time-of-day and synchronization effects influence the opportunities accessible to a group of individuals. The impact of these factors on joint accessibility is illustrated by a real-world example of an everyday rendezvous scenario. The outcomes of a simulation exercise suggest that time-of-day and synchronization effects significantly affect the benefits that can be gained from opportunities for joint activities. La capacidad de acceso a las oportunidades que los entornos construidos (como las ciudades) ofrecen a las personas, está limitada por un conjunto diverso de restricciones espacio-temporales. Entre ellas se incluyen los requisitos para coincidir y encontrarse con otras personas en determinados momentos y lugares con el fin de realizar actividades conjuntas. Los modelos de accesibilidad comunes reconocen que las actividades conjuntas pueden limitar el ejercicio de actividades en el espacio y el tiempo. Sin embargo, sus especificaciones no reconocen explícitamente las oportunidades disponibles a todos los individuos de un grupo para participar de una actividad conjunta. Es en este contexto y dadas las limitaciones descritas que este artículo se centra en la participación de individuos en actividades conjuntas y propone el argumento que la toma de decisiones relacionadas con dichas actividades son el resultado de un proceso complejo que involucra varios aspectos de temporización (programación temporal), sincronización, y jerarquía social. El modelo teórico de utilidad que se propone aquí cuantifica el grado en que las oportunidades pueden ser evaluadas en forma conjunta por un grupo de personas particular dentro de un período de tiempo específico. El marco general propuesto por los autores se basa en tres variables fundamentales: el atractivo de una oportunidad, el tiempo disponible para la participación de la actividad, y el tiempo de desplazamiento al lugar donde se lleva a cabo actividad. Debido al carácter particular de estas actividades (que involucran múltiples participantes), la determinación de estas variables está sujeta a preferencias individuales, a privilegios y a diferencias de poder dentro de un grupo. El presente estudio además presta atención especial a la forma en la que la hora del día y los efectos de sincronización pueden influenciar la disponibilidad de oportunidades para un grupo determinado de individuos. El impacto de estos factores sobre la accesibilidad agregada de actividades conjuntas es ejemplificado por los autores mediante un caso del mundo real que utiliza escenarios de encuentros diarios entre personas. Los resultados de este ejercicio de simulación sugieren que los efectos de la hora del día y la sincronización afectan significativamente los beneficios que se pueden obtener a partir las oportunidades disponibles para acceder a y realizar actividades conjuntas. [source] Partition-based algorithm for estimating transportation network reliability with dependent link failuresJOURNAL OF ADVANCED TRANSPORTATION, Issue 3 2008Agachai Sumalee Evaluating the reliability of a transportation network often involves an intensive simulation exercise to randomly generate and evaluate different possible network states. This paper proposes an algorithm to approximate the network reliability which minimizes the use of such simulation procedure. The algorithm will dissect and classify the network states into reliable, unreliable, and un-determined partitions. By postulating the monotone property of the reliability function, each reliable and/or unreliable state can be used to determine a number of other reliable and/or unreliable states without evaluating all of them with an equilibrium assignment procedure. The paper also proposes the cause-based failure framework for representing dependent link degradation probabilities. The algorithm and framework proposed are tested with a medium size test network to illustrate the performance of the algorithm. [source] Ecologically justified charisma: preservation of top predators delivers biodiversity conservationJOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY, Issue 6 2006FABRIZIO SERGIO Summary 1Because of their popular appeal, top vertebrate predators have frequently been used as flagship or umbrella species to acquire financial support, raise environmental awareness and plan systems of protected areas. However, some have claimed that the utilization of charismatic predators may divert a disproportionate amount of funding to a few glamorous species without delivering broader biodiversity benefits, an accusation aggravated by the fact that the conservation of top predators is often complex, difficult and expensive. Therefore, tests are needed of whether apex predators may be employed to achieve ecosystem-level targets. 2To test such a hypothesis, we compared the biodiversity values recorded at the breeding sites of six raptor species, differing widely in diet and habitat associations, with those observed at three types of control locations, (i) sites randomly chosen in comparable habitat, (ii) breeding sites of a randomly selected bird species of lower trophic level and (iii) breeding sites of a lower trophic level species with specialized ecological requirements. Biodiversity was measured as the richness and evenness of bird, butterfly and tree species. 3Biodiversity levels were consistently higher at sites occupied by top predators than at any of the three types of control sites. Furthermore, sites occupied by top predators also held greater densities of individual birds and butterflies (all species combined) than control sites. 4In a reserve-selection simulation exercise, networks of protected sites constructed on the basis of top predators were more efficient than networks based on lower trophic level species, enabling higher biodiversity coverage to be achieved with a smaller number of reserves. 5Synthesis and applications. Our results provide evidence of a link between the strategic utilization of top predatory species and ecosystem-level conservation. We suggest that, at least in some biological systems, conservation plans based on apex predators could be implemented to deliver broader biodiversity benefits. [source] Distributive impacts of the food price crisis in the Andean regionJOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT, Issue 7 2010José Cuesta Abstract This study analyses the distributive consequences associated with the recent international food price crisis in the Andean region. The study explores the distributive repercussions of the crisis by means of a simple simulation exercise which isolates the direct and short-term effects of actual increases in food prices across the Andean region. The paper finds substantive and heterogeneous poverty impacts, ranging from two to six per cent points in the incidence of poverty. Results are found very sensitive to the net consumer (or producer) position of the household, and less so across other characteristics of the household. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Multi-scale study on the secondary reactions of fluid catalytic cracking gasolineAICHE JOURNAL, Issue 8 2009Bo-lun Yang Abstract Multi-scale model considered the heat transfer, mass transfer, momentum transfer, fluid flow with reactions together at different spatiotemporal scales for the riser reactor of secondary reactions of fluid catalytic cracking gasoline (SRFCCG) process has been preformed in this work. Micro-scale of kinetics in catalyst particles, meso-scale of clusters, voids, dense phase, dilute phases, and heterogeneous structures in gas,solid flow, and the macro-scale of product distribution over riser reactor have been established using multi-scale modeling method and integrated by the multi-domain strategy. The proposed model was solved with the software of EQUATRAN-G. Good agreement between simulation results and the experimental data suggested that the proposed model was well constructed and simulation exercise was successful. The multi-scale model was capable of predicting heterogeneous structures of multi-phase flow, reactor temperature profile, and product distribution of SRFCCG process. © 2009 American Institute of Chemical Engineers AIChE J, 2009 [source] An acute care skills evaluation for graduating medical students: a pilot study using clinical simulationMEDICAL EDUCATION, Issue 9 2002David Murray Purpose, This investigation aimed to explore the measurement properties of scores from a patient simulator exercise. Methods, Analytic and holistic scores were obtained for groups of medical students and residents. Item analysis techniques were used to explore the nature of specific examinee actions. Interrater reliability was calculated. Scores were contrasted for third year medical students, fourth year medical students and emergency department residents. Results, Interrater reliabilities for analytic and holistic scores were 0·92 and 0·81, respectively. Based on item analysis, proper timing and sequencing of actions discriminated between low- and high-ability examinees. In general, examinees with more advanced training obtained higher scores on the simulation exercise. Conclusion, Reliable and valid measures of clinical performance can be obtained from a trauma simulation provided that care is taken in the development and scoring of the scenario. [source] The ,Critical Thinking Module', a grant proposal simulation exerciseMEDICAL EDUCATION, Issue 11 2000Article first published online: 9 OCT 200 No abstract is available for this article. [source] Maquiladora Employment Dynamics in Nuevo LaredoGROWTH AND CHANGE, Issue 1 2007JESÚS CAÑAS ABSTRACT The Nuevo Laredo maquiladora sector has grown enormously during the last two decades. The short-term time series characteristics of this portion of the regional economy are analyzed in an attempt to quantify the trends underlying this remarkable performance. Parameter estimation is accomplished via linear transfer function (LTF) analysis. Data are drawn from the January 1990,December 2000 sample period. Empirical results indicate that real wage rates, maquiladora plants, U.S. industrial activity, and the real exchange rate of the peso play significant roles in determining month-to-month fluctuations in maquiladora employment. Furthermore, sub-sample forecast simulation exercises are conducted as an additional means for verifying model reliability. Empirical results indicate that the forecasts generated with the LTF model are less accurate than those associated with a simple random walk procedure for twelve separate step-length periods. [source] Measuring the shortage of medical practitioners in rural and urban areas in developing countries: a simple framework and simulation exercises with data from IndiaINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF HEALTH PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT, Issue 2 2008Homi Katrak Abstract This paper suggests a simple framework to estimate the shortage of medical practitioners in rural and urban areas in developing countries. Shortages are defined with respect to four main considerations. The overall numbers and also the different categories of practitioners in the rural and urban areas, the relatively greater difficulties of access in the rural areas (which reduce the number of accessible practitioners) and the greater health hazards in those areas (which lead to greater need for medical treatment). The quantitative effect of these factors is examined by undertaking simulation exercises with data for the Ujjain district in Madhya Pradesh state, India and also data for that state. The simulations turned up the following results. The un-weighted total number of practitioners, per head of population, is relatively greater in the rural areas; this is because of the relatively large numbers of the unqualified doctors in those areas. On the other hand, a ,quality adjusted' total, with lower weights for the unqualified doctors, found little overall difference between the rural and urban areas. Third, allowance for rural,urban differences in the difficulties of access showed that the number of accessible practitioners is much lower in the rural areas. Fourth, rural,urban differences in the incidence of health hazards and estimates of the need for medical treatment also showed a marked shortage of practitioners in the rural areas. The main implication of the results is that developmental efforts in the rural areas, including improvements in transport facilities and reduction of health hazards, would help to greatly reduce the shortage of practitioners in those areas. Training programmes to improve the quality of practitioners in the rural areas are also required. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] USE OF SIMULATED CLIENTS IN MARRIAGE AND FAMILY THERAPY EDUCATIONJOURNAL OF MARITAL AND FAMILY THERAPY, Issue 1 2007Jennifer L. Hodgson Knowledge of how one should manage suicidal, homicidal, child maltreatment, and domestic violence situations is paramount in the training of marriage and family therapists (MFTs). Simulated patient modules were created to help clinical faculty address these crisis situations in a protected learning environment. The modules were implemented by the MFT faculty in collaboration with the Office of Clinical Skills Assessment and Education at East Carolina University's Brody School of Medicine. Qualitative data over the course of 2 years revealed six thematic domains regarding therapists' performance, therapists' emotions, the simulation experiences, and lessons learned. Educational, clinical, and research recommendations include tools to implement simulation exercises into marriage and family therapy programs as well as suggestions to assess for teaching effectiveness. [source] RETURNS TO SCALE AND REGIONAL GROWTH: THE STATIC-DYNAMIC VERDOORN LAW PARADOX REVISITED,JOURNAL OF REGIONAL SCIENCE, Issue 2 2007John S. L. McCombie ABSTRACT It has long been an article of faith amongst regional economists that increasing returns to scale are necessary to explain the punctiform location of economic activity and population. However, there is no consensus in the empirical literature over whether returns to scale are constant or increasing. A notable example of this lack of agreement is provided by the static-dynamic Verdoorn law paradox. While the dynamic Verdoorn law (specified using growth rates) yields estimates of substantial increasing returns to scale, the static Verdoorn law (specified using log-levels) indicates only the presence of constant returns to scale. In this paper, we explain the static-dynamic Verdoorn law paradox by showing that estimates of returns to scale obtained using the static law are subject to a spatial aggregation bias, which biases the estimates towards constant returns to scale. We illustrate our arguments by means of simulation exercises. The results obtained hold general lessons for applied economic analysis using spatial data. [source] Is Price in Hong Kong That Flexible?ASIAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL, Issue 2 2002Evidence from the Export Sector Using the Johansen procedure, this paper estimates and compares the adjustment speeds of Hong Kong's export volume and export price. Result of this will have profound implications on the debate of the appropriateness of Hong Kong's current exchange-rate system. Two cointegrating vectors were found in our system, with one postulating the export volume equation and another postulating the export price equation. It was found that export volume will adjust relatively fast to shocks in the export volume equation, and that export price will adjust relatively slow to shocks in the export volume equation. On the other hand, export volume will be insensitive, and export price will adjust at moderate speed, to disequilibrium in the export price equation. Based on the estimated model, we also conducted simulation exercises to highlight the impacts of the appreciation of the US Dollar and the reduction in world demand on Hong Kong's export volume during the crisis and post-crisis periods. [source] | ||||||||||||||||