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Short-run Dynamics (short-run + dynamics)
Selected AbstractsTWIN SONS OF DIFFERENT MOTHERS: THE LONG AND THE SHORT OF THE TWIN DEFICITS DEBATEECONOMIC INQUIRY, Issue 4 2009KEVIN GRIER Interest in the twin deficits hypothesis fluctuates in tandem with the U.S. current account deficit. Surprisingly though, a statistically robust relationship between budget and trade deficits has been difficult to pin down. We argue that a big part of this difficulty is due to the failure to allow for structural breaks in the series when (either explicitly or implicitly) modeling their time series properties. We show that both series are break stationary (and conditionally heteroskedastic) and argue that while there is no common pattern in the long run, the short-run dynamics reveal a sizeable and fairly persistent positive relationship between budget deficit shocks and current account deficit shocks. (JEL F41, E6, H6) [source] Reducing size distortions of parametric stationarity testsJOURNAL OF TIME SERIES ANALYSIS, Issue 4 2003MARKKU LANNE The use of asymptotic critical values in stationarity tests against the alternative of a unit root process is known to lead to over-rejections in finite samples when the considered process is stationary but highly persistent. We claim that, in recent parametric tests, this is caused by estimation errors which result when the autoregressive parameters used to describe the short-run dynamics of the process are replaced by estimators. We suggest a modification that corrects for these errors. Simulation results show that the modified test works reasonably well when the persistence is moderate and there is no time trend in the model but it is less effective when the model contains a time trend. An empirical illustration with inflation rate data is provided. [source] The representative household's demand for money in a cointegrated VAR modelTHE ECONOMETRICS JOURNAL, Issue 2 2000Thórarinn G. Pétursson A representative household model with liquidity services directly in the utility function is used to derive a stable, data congruent error correction model of broad money demand in Iceland. This model gives a linear, long-run relation between real money balances, output and the opportunity cost of holding money that is used to over-identify the cointegrating space. The over-identifying restrictions suggest that the representative household is equally averse to variations in consumption and real money holdings. Finally, a forward-looking interpretation of the short-run dynamics, assuming quadratic adjustment costs, cannot be rejected by the data. [source] Optimal Dynamic Taxation with Indivisible LabourTHE MANCHESTER SCHOOL, Issue 2004Parantap Basu How should a government arrange taxes on labour and capital over time? To provide an answer, we develop the field of optimal dynamic taxation further by (i) incorporating indivisible labour and (ii) analysing the short-run dynamics of the capital and labour taxes under the second-best programme. We derive two classes of preferences for which the optimal capital tax reaches zero in a finite time. If leisure is normal, the labour tax is gradually increased for a period and then kept constant, and, if leisure is neutral, labour is not taxed at all. Finally, we analyse the dynamics of labour supply under the optimal tax programme. [source] | ||||||||||