Home About us Contact
|
Home About us Contact | ||
|
|
||
Scientific Uncertainty (scientific + uncertainty)
Selected AbstractsAn approach for post-market monitoring of potential environmental effects of Bt -maize expressing Cry1Ab on natural enemiesJOURNAL OF APPLIED ENTOMOLOGY, Issue 4 2009O. Sanvido Abstract Post-market monitoring (PMM) consistent with Swiss and European Union legislation should ensure the detection and prevention of adverse effects on the environment possibly deriving from commercial cultivation of genetically modified (GM) crops. Insect-resistant GM crops (such as Bt -maize) raise particular questions regarding disturbances of biological control functions provided by beneficial insects such as predators and parasitoids (so-called natural enemies). Consensus among regulators, scientists and the agricultural biotech industry on appropriate PMM plans allowing the detection and possibly prevention of such adverse effects is still lacking. The aims of this study were to identify the necessity for PMM of Bt -maize expressing Cry1Ab on natural enemies and to develop an appropriate PMM plan. The approach chosen consisted in determining what type of monitoring is most appropriate to address potential effects of Bt -maize on natural enemies during commercial cultivation. This included identifying whether there remain substantial scientific uncertainties that would support case-specific monitoring. Existing pre-market risk assessment data indicate that Bt -maize (Cry1Ab) comprises a negligible risk for disturbances in biological control functions of natural enemies. As a consequence, a faunistic monitoring of specific groups of natural enemies is not considered an appropriate approach to detect failures in biological control functions. Alternatively, an approach is proposed that consists in indirectly analysing biological control functions by surveying outbreaks of maize herbivores. Unusual herbivore outbreaks could indicate failures in biological control functions of natural enemies. Data could be collected via questionnaires addressed to farmers growing Bt -maize. Significant correlations between unusual occurrences of specific maize herbivores and the cultivation of Bt -maize would subsequently need specific studies to determine possible causalities in more detail. The here proposed approach has the advantage of covering different natural enemy groups. It represents a cost-effective strategy to obtain scientifically sound data as a basis for regulatory decision-making. [source] Should we beware of the Precautionary Principle?ECONOMIC POLICY, Issue 33 2001Christian Gollier How should society deal with risks when there is scientific uncertainty about the size of these risks? There has been much recent discussion of the Precautionary Principle, which states that lack of full scientific knowledge should not be used as a reason to postpone cost,effective preventive measures. We show in this paper that the Precautionary Principle contradicts one important intuition about the right way to act in the face of risk, namely the principle of ,looking before you leap'. When we expect to learn more about the future, the effectiveness of our preventive measures will be greater if we learn before we act. However, a number of other ways of taking uncertainty into account are consistent with a reasonable interpretation of the Precautionary Principle. First, postponing preventive measures may increase our vulnerability to damage, which induces a precautionary motive for risk,prevention, similar to the precautionary savings motive. Secondly, stronger preventive actions often yield more flexibility for the future, so that acting early has an option value. Thirdly, when better information comes from a process of learning,by,doing, the risk associated with early events is amplified by the information they yield about the future. This plays a role analogous to that of an increase in risk aversion, making us more cautious. Fourthly, because imperfect knowledge of the risk makes it difficult to insure, the social cost of risk should include a risk premium. Finally, uncertainty about the economic environment enjoyed by future generations should be taken into account. This raises the benefit of acting early to prevent long,term risks. If the Precautionary Principle sometimes gives good and sometimes gives bad advice, there is no escape from the need to undertake a careful cost,benefit analysis. We show that standard cost,benefit analysis can be refined to take account of scientific uncertainty, in ways that balance the Precautionary Principle against the benefits of waiting to learn before we act. Furthermore, it is important that they be used to do so, for instinct is an unreliable guide in such circumstances. Abandoning cost,benefit analysis in favour of simple maxims can result in some seriously misleading conclusions. [source] Managing scientific uncertainty in health legislationINTERNAL MEDICINE JOURNAL, Issue 2 2007W. Lipworth Abstract Legislation and regulation of biomedical research is seldom a one-off process since biomedical science evolves rapidly, dynamically and often unpredictably. This paper discusses the challenges faced by regulators who need to produce legislation and policy in rapidly changing fields and outlines some practical suggestions for managing law reform and policy-making under these circumstances. [source] The EMF uncertainty problem related to mobile phones: where do consumers place their trust?INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CONSUMER STUDIES, Issue 2 2010Lisbet Berg Abstract This paper addresses the uncertainty problem, i.e. cases characterized by lack of knowledge or scientific uncertainty. In such situations, it can be hard for consumers to ,voice' or practise consumer power. One field characterized by the uncertainty problem is electromagnetic radiation. An explicit goal of this study has been to articulate Norwegian consumers' practices, attitudes and beliefs regarding electromagnetic radiation from mobile phones to public authorities and consumer policy makers. The study was based on 1000 telephone interviews collected in 2008. Today, experts disagree on the potential health effects of radiation from electromagnetic fields (EMF), as well as standards for safe limits of exposure to mobile phones, base stations and wireless telecommunication systems. In addition, complicated technology and extremely rapid product development and diffusion leave consumers' security considerations to their own beliefs and trust. Whether or not electromagnetic radiation from mobile phones constitutes a health hazard will not be addressed in this paper. Rather, it will focus on how consumers react to this situation of uncertainty. The material reveals four main ways in which consumers can solve what we have named the EMF uncertainty problem: the confident and comfortable way, the sceptical and cautious way, the responsible and good citizen way, and finally, the neglecting way. The paper also discusses the precautionary principle related to EMF. Who should be precautionary: the public authorities, the mobile phone industry or the consumers themselves? We believe that a consistent governmental precautionary policy in combination with consumers taking their own precautionary measures is a viable solution. In this way, all consumers would be addressed and aided when navigating this field of uncertainty. [source] Rethinking the interface between ecology and society.JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY, Issue 1 2008The case of the cockle controversy in the Dutch Wadden Sea Summary 1Applied ecology, like conservation research, may deal with societal issues if its scientifically based interventions have societal consequences. Human utilization plays a significant role in many ecosystems, so conservation ecologists often have to act on the interface between science and society, where controversies may arise. 2Using insights from science and technology studies, we have analysed the 15-year controversy on the ecological effects of cockle fishing in the Dutch Wadden Sea, which began around 1990 and involved nature protection and shellfish organizations, as well as several leading Dutch ecologists, in a heated debate. 3During this controversy, evaluative research on the ecological effects of cockle fishing was undertaken by a consortium of institutes in order to contribute to the process of political decision-making by the Dutch government on cockle fishery in this area. In addition to conservational and commercial interests, ecological research itself became part of the controversy. 4The research projects on the effects of cockle fishing during this controversy are examples of societally contextualized science, implying that interests and societal disputes are intertwined with scientific arguments. We have applied a dynamic model of contextualization in which societal stakes and scientific uncertainty are considered as the main factors determining the different contexts in which conservation research functions. 5Synthesis and applications. Conservation research, whether it is fundamental or managerially orientated, is related to greater societal aims and interests and might easily face more or less complex societally contextualized situations. Such situations imply extended responsibilities for scientists. Not only is there a need for sound science, but also for a sound way of interacting and communicating with the societal environment. Some elements of such a notion of extended accountability are presented. [source] Global Problem: National Accountability: Framing Accountability in the Australian Context of Climate ChangeJOURNAL OF CONTINGENCIES AND CRISIS MANAGEMENT, Issue 2 2008Eva-Karin Olsson Climate change has been seen as a crisis looming in the future, and has therefore not reached the top of the political agenda. This no longer holds true when looking at Australia, where climate change has become high politics. In this paper we examine the Australian electoral debate in terms of accountability framing, where the Government and Opposition were involved in a ,framing contest'. We argue that theories on accountability framing in crisis need to be modified in order to capture the complex dynamics of climate change due to its inherent scientific uncertainty and global nature. After conducting an inductive analysis of Australian Broadcasting Corporation-reporting we found three themes to be of importance for accountability framing in the ,risk society': labeling, linking and coping. [source] Regulating Contested Local Hazards: Is Constructive Dialogue Possible Among Participants in Community Risk Management?POLICY STUDIES JOURNAL, Issue 3 2000Angela C. Halfacre This article uses focus group data to explore the connection between scientific uncertainty about environmental risks and the emergence of distrust among local populations, regulators, and technical experts affected by those risks. With data from a nationwide study of issues associated with the cleanup of U.S. nuclear weapons facilities, the article uses "dialogue theory" and focus group data from three locations to identify the sources of miscommunication and distrust among these actors. The authors conclude that, despite problems with perception and communication among these groups, enough common ground exists to be optimistic about expanding participation for all affected groups in the policymaking process. In fact, expanded participation should diminish the distrust developed from previous regulatory regimes. [source] Counting on codes: An examination of transnational codes as a regulatory governance mechanism for nanotechnologiesREGULATION & GOVERNANCE, Issue 2 2009Diana M. Bowman Abstract This article examines the rise of nanotechnology-specific codes of conduct (nano-codes) as a private governance mechanism to manage potential risks and promote the technology. It examines their effectiveness as well as their legitimacy as regulatory instruments in the public domain. The study first maps the rise of voluntary nano-codes and the roles played by different actors. Focusing on five specific nano-codes, the article then discusses their adequacy in terms of scientific uncertainty, gaps in existing regulatory regimes, and broader societal concerns. It concludes that these voluntary nano-codes have weaknesses including a lack of explicit standards on which to base independent monitoring, as well as no sanctions for poor compliance. At the same time it also highlights the potential power of these governance mechanisms under conditions of uncertainty and co-regulation with government. It is likely that nano-codes will become the "first cut" of a new governance regime for nanotechnologies. [source] Going to the Roots of the Stem Cell ControversyBIOETHICS, Issue 6 2002Søren Holm The purpose of this paper is to describe the scientific background to the current ethical and legislative debates about the generation and use of human stem cells, and to give an overview of the ethical issues underlying these debates. The ethical issues discussed are 1) stem cells and the status of the embryo, 2) women as the sources of ova for stem cell production, 3) the use of ova from other species, 4) slippery slopes towards reproductive cloning, 5) the public presentation of stem cell research and 6) the evaluation of scientific uncertainty and its implications for public policy. [source] | ||||||||||||||||