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Selected AbstractsThe kdr mutation occurs in the Mopti form of Anopheles gambiaes.s. through introgressionINSECT MOLECULAR BIOLOGY, Issue 5 2000M. Weill Abstract Anopheles gambiaes.s. is a complex of sibling taxa characterized by various paracentric inversions. In west and central Africa, where several taxa are sympatric, a kdr mutation responsible for pyrethroid resistance has been described in only one (the S taxon), suggesting an absence of gene flow between them. Following a thorough sampling, we have found a kdr mutation in another taxon (M). To establish whether this mutation is the same event or not, the large intron upstream of the kdr mutation was sequenced to find polymorphic sites in susceptible/resistant and M/S mosquitoes. The low genetic diversity found in this DNA region indicates that a local genetic sweep has recently occurred. However, some polymorphic sites were found, and it is therefore concluded that the kdr mutation in the M taxon is not an independent mutation event, and is best explained by an introgression from the S taxon. These results are discussed within the context of possible gene flow between members of An. gambiae s.s. taxa, and with the possible spread of the kdr mutation in other closely related malaria vectors of the An. gambiae complex. [source] Trace element concentrations in the Mexico-Belize ejecta layer: A link between the Chicxulub impact and the global Cretaceous-Paleogene boundaryMETEORITICS & PLANETARY SCIENCE, Issue 11 2007Jane Wigforss-Lange The ejecta deposits consist of a lower spheroid bed, containing clay and dolomite spheroids, and an upper diamictite bed with boulders and clasts of limestone and dolomite. The matrix of both beds is composed of clay and micritic dolomite. The rare earth element (REE) compositions in the matrix of both units show strong similarities in concentrations and pattern. Furthermore, the Zr/TiO2 scatter plot shows a linear correlation indicating one source. These results indicate that the basal spheroid bed has the same source and was generated during the same event as the overlying diamictite bed, which lends support to a single-impact scenario for the Albion Formation ejecta deposits. The elevated concentrations of non-meteoritic elements such as Sb, As, U, and Zn in the matrix of the lower spheroid bed are regarded to have been derived from the sedimentary target rocks at the Chicxulub impact site. The positive Eu and Ce anomalies in clay concretion and in the matrix of the lower part of the spheroid bed in Albion Island quarry is probably related to processes involved in the impact, such as high temperature and oxidizing conditions. Analogous trace element anomalies have been reported from the distal Cretaceous-Paleogene (K/T) boundary clay layer at different sites. Thus, the trace element signals, reported herein, are regarded to support a genetic link between the Chicxulub impact, the ejecta deposits along the Mexico-Belize border, and the global K/T boundary layer. [source] Memoirs of an indifferent trader: Estimating forecast distributions from prediction marketsQUANTITATIVE ECONOMICS, Issue 1 2010Joyce E. Berg C11; C93; D8; G1 Prediction markets for future events are increasingly common and they often trade several contracts for the same event. This paper considers the distribution of a normative risk-neutral trader who, given any portfolio of contracts traded on the event, would choose not to reallocate that portfolio of contracts even if transactions costs were zero. Because common parametric distributions can conflict with observed prediction market prices, the distribution is given a nonparametric representation together with a prior distribution favoring smooth and concentrated distributions. Posterior modal distributions are found for popular vote shares of the U.S. presidential candidates in the 100 days leading up to the elections of 1992, 1996, 2000, and 2004, using bid and ask prices on multiple contracts from the Iowa Electronic Markets. On some days, the distributions are multimodal or substantially asymmetric. The derived distributions are more concentrated than the historical distribution of popular vote shares in presidential elections, but do not tend to become more concentrated as time to elections diminishes. [source] ,Thank Goodness That's Over': The Evolutionary StoryRATIO, Issue 3 2002James Maclaurin If, as the new tenseless theory of time maintains, there are no tensed facts, then why do our emotional lives seem to suggest that there are? This question originates with Prior's ,Thank Goodness That's Over' problem, and still presents a significant challenge to the new B,theory of time. We argue that this challenge has more dimensions to it than has been appreciated by those involved in the debate so far. We present an analysis of the challenge, showing the different questions that a B,theorist must answer in order to meet it. The debate has focused on the question of what is the object of my relief when an unpleasant experience is past. We outline the prevailing response to this question. The additional, and neglected, questions are, firstly ,,Why does the same event elicit different emotional responses from us depending on whether it is in the past, present, or future?' And secondly ,,Why do we care more about proximate future pain than about distant future pain?' We give B,theory answers to these questions, which appeal to evolutionary considerations. [source] Systematically Dependent Competing Risks and Strategic RetirementAMERICAN JOURNAL OF POLITICAL SCIENCE, Issue 3 2009Kentaro Fukumoto In many applications of survival analysis, the risk of an event occurring for one reason is dependent on the risk of the same event occurring for another reason. For example, when politicians suspect they might lose an election, they may strategically choose to retire. In such situations, the often-used multinomial logit model suffers from bias and underestimates the degree of strategic retirement, for example, to what extent poor prior electoral performance diminishes electoral prospects. To address this problem, the present article proposes a systematically dependent competing-risks (SDCR) model of survival analysis. Unlike the frailty model, the SDCR model can also deal with more than two risks. Monte Carlo simulation demonstrates how much the SDCR model reduces bias. Reanalysis of data on U.S. congressional careers (Box-Steffensmeier and Jones 2004) documents the strategic retirement of representatives, indicating that electoral pressure is more effective at turning out incumbents than previously recognized. [source] Social anxiety moderates memory conformity in adolescentsAPPLIED COGNITIVE PSYCHOLOGY, Issue 7 2010Daniel B. Wright When two people view the same event and later try to remember it together, what one person says affects what the other person reports. A model is presented which predicts that this memory conformity effect will be moderated, in different ways, by two components of social anxiety. People with higher fear of negative evaluation should be more influenced by their peers than others, but those with higher social anxiety related to avoiding social situations may be less influenced by their peers than others. Pairs of adolescent-aged participants took part in a face recognition study. For each trial one person responded and then the next person responded. The effect of what the first person said on the second person's response was measured; the size of the effect was moderated by the social anxiety measures as predicted by the model. This is the first study showing the relationship between social anxiety and memory suggestibility. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] ,Mind the gap': false memories for missing aspects of an eventAPPLIED COGNITIVE PSYCHOLOGY, Issue 5 2006Matthew P. Gerrie Numerous eyewitness testimony studies have shown that people can falsely remember parts of an event after being exposed to misleading suggestion about it (Loftus, Miller, & Burns, 1978); however, few researchers have examined whether people falsely remember parts of an event when there is no such suggestion. Across two studies, we show that people systematically develop false memories for unseen aspects of an event. In Experiment 1, subjects saw a movie of a woman making a sandwich; some actions were missing. In a memory test, subjects confidently but falsely remembered 17% of unseen information from the event. In Experiment 2, subjects saw the same event, but the missing actions were either crucial or not crucial. Subjects were more likely to falsely remember the missing noncrucial than missing crucial information. Theoretically, our results fit with a source monitoring account of false memories. Practically, our results suggest a means by which we can predict what aspects of an event are likely to be falsely remembered. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Memory conformity: can eyewitnesses influence each other's memories for an event?APPLIED COGNITIVE PSYCHOLOGY, Issue 5 2003Fiona Gabbert The current study investigated memory conformity effects between individuals who witness and then discuss a criminal event, employing a novel procedure whereby each member of a dyad watches a different video of the same event. Each video contained unique items that were thus seen only by one witness. Dyads in one condition were encouraged to discuss the event before each witness (individually) performed a recall test, while in a control condition dyads were not allowed to discuss the event prior to recall. A significant proportion (71%) of witnesses who had discussed the event went on to mistakenly recall items acquired during the discussion. There were no age-related differences in susceptibility to these memory conformity effects in younger (18,30 years) as compared to older (60,80 years) participants. Possible social and cognitive mechanisms underlying the distortions of memory due to conformity are discussed. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Assessing the default risk by means of a discrete-time survival analysis approachAPPLIED STOCHASTIC MODELS IN BUSINESS AND INDUSTRY, Issue 4 2008Daniele De Leonardis Abstract In this paper, the problem of company distress is assessed by means of a multi-period model that exploits the potentialities of the survival analysis approach when both survival times and regressors are measured at discrete points in time. The discrete-time hazards model can be used both as an empirical framework in the analysis of the causes of the deterioration process that leads to the default and as a tool for the prediction of the same event. Our results show that the prediction accuracy of the duration model is better than that provided by a single-period logistic model. It is also shown that the predictive power of the discrete-time survival analysis is enhanced when it is extended to allow for unobserved individual heterogeneity (frailty). Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] The Battle of Baugé, March 1421: Impact and MemoryHISTORY, Issue 304 2006JOHN D. MILNER On 22 March 1421, Henry V's brother and heir presumptive, Thomas, duke of Clarence, was killed in battle at Baugé in Anjou by a Franco-Scottish force. Clarence had engaged the enemy without proper preparation and with no archers to support him. For Henry V who had made inexorable progress since the start of his French campaign in 1417, this represented a serious and unexpected reverse. This article examines both contemporary and later reactions to Baugé. On account of the different perspectives , French, Scottish and a range of English reactions , from which the battle has been considered, it is possible to give an insight into the varying ways in which the same events were reported and interpreted. The article examines also the wider impact of a battle which, while having limited military effect, created considerable uncertainty at the time, and remained in the memory as an alarming example of how quickly the fortunes of war could change. [source] Teaching Foreign Policy with MemoirsINTERNATIONAL STUDIES PERSPECTIVES, Issue 2 2002Terry L. Deibel Excerpts from the memoirs of high foreign policy officials, if carefully selected and structured, can be a valuable resource in the teaching of diplomatic history, American foreign policy, and international relations. Two decades of teaching a memoirs-only course to mid-career military officers and foreign affairs professionals in a seminar discussion format reveals many of their advantages. Memoirs are interesting reading that rarely fail to engage a reader's attention; they impart detailed knowledge of historical events; they provide a rich understanding of process and the neglected area of policy implementation; like case studies, they let students build vicarious experience in policymaking and execution; and they often provide what Alexander George called "policy-relevant generalizations." While lack of objectivity can be a serious drawback of first-person accounts, it provides its own lessons on the nature of history and can be offset by using multiple accounts of the same events and by combining memoirs with documents and historical works, or countering analytical studies. Although picking the most interesting and worthwhile excerpts, getting them in students' hands, and accommodating their length within the boundaries of a standard college course are additional challenges, professors who take them on should find that memoirs add a new level of excitement and realism to their courses. [source] A Story of Miscarriage: Law in the MediaJOURNAL OF LAW AND SOCIETY, Issue 2 2004Richard Nobles This article utilizes the work of the sociologist Niklas Luhmann in order to examine the relationship between law and the media. Luhmann views both law and the media as closed systems of communication, systems which cannot duplicate the meaning of each other's communications. After introducing Luhmann's approach to media reporting, and applying this to the relationship between law and media reporting on law, the article analyses a recent miscarriage of justice case. The case is that of the solicitor Sally Clark who was convicted of a double child killing. Although her first appeal was rejected she succeeded in a second appeal. Media reporting of Sally Clark's case is contrasted with the trial and Court of Appeal judgments to demonstrate the different basis upon which law and the media each construct communications about the same events [source] Evaluation of cost of treatment of drug-related events in a tertiary care public sector hospital in Northern India: a prospective studyBRITISH JOURNAL OF CLINICAL PHARMACOLOGY, Issue 3 2009Smita Pattanaik WHAT IS ALREADY KNOWN ABOUT THIS SUBJECT , Drug related events include ADRs, events due to patient or physician noncompliance, drug overdosage and drug interactions. , Economic burden of management of drug related events are substantial and include both direct and indirect costs. , Some data regarding cost of treatment of ADR exist from south and western India. WHAT THIS STUDY ADDS , An approximate cost of management of drug related events presenting to the emergency medical department in a tertiary care hospital over a period of 4 months. , Compares the cost incurred in a public sector hospital to the projected cost of management of same events in a private sector hospital. , Gives a rough estimate of economic burden on the health care system due to adverse drug events. AIMS Drug related events (DREs) contribute significantly to hospital admissions. These are largely preventable events and require optimum use of the therapeutic agents. The study was conducted to analyze the cost of treatment of DREs. PATIENTS & METHODS All visits to medical emergency department of a tertiary care public sector hospital in northern India were recorded in a prospective, non-interventional manner over a period of 4 months. DREs were recognized and were followed up till their stay in the hospital. Data about the cost generating components of direct and indirect costs of treatment of DREs were collected. The projected cost of treatment of the same DREs in a private sector hospital was estimated and compared. RESULTS Out of 1833 admissions, 92(5.01%) were due to DREs. Maximum cases were due to non compliance (66%) followed by ADR (28%) and drug overdose(6%). The common DREs leading to ED visits were cerebrovascular accident(19.44%), followed by accelerated hypertension(18.36%) and diabetic ketoacidosis(14.04%). Total cost of management of all the 92 DREs in our hospital was calculated to be INR17,37,339(,30,215). The direct cost was INR1,72,961(,3008) and the approximate indirect cost was INR15,64, 378(,27, 206). The projected cost of management of all the 92 DREs was estimated to be INR63,63,872(,1,01, 676) in a private sector hospital. CONCLUSION The study shows that ADEs leading to emergency department visits and hospitalizations constitute a significant economic burden. Training of the patients and the prescribers may lessen the economic burden on the patient as well as the health care system. [source] |