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Risky Choices (risky + choice)
Selected AbstractsEvaluating a dual-process model of risk: affect and cognition as determinants of risky choiceJOURNAL OF BEHAVIORAL DECISION MAKING, Issue 1 2009Jean-Louis van Gelder Abstract In three studies we addressed the impact of perceived risk and negative affect on risky choice. In Study 1, we tested a model that included both perceived risk and negative affect as predictors of risky choice. Study 2 and Study 3 replicated these findings and examined the impact of affective versus cognitive processing modes. In all the three studies, both perceived risk and negative affect were shown to be significant predictors of risky choice. Furthermore, Study 2 and Study 3 showed that an affective processing mode strengthened the relation between negative affect and risky choice and that a cognitive processing mode strengthened the relation between perceived risk and risky choice. Together, these findings show support for the idea of a dual-process model of risky choice. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Stability of choices in a risky decision-making task: a 3-year longitudinal study with children and adultsJOURNAL OF BEHAVIORAL DECISION MAKING, Issue 3 2007Irwin P. Levin Abstract In a 3-year follow-up to Levin and Hart's (2003) study, we observed the same children, now 9,11 years old, and their parents in the same risky decision-making task. At the aggregate level the same pattern of means was observed across time periods. At the individual level the key variables were significantly correlated across time periods for both children and adults. Taken together with the results from the original study and earlier studies, these results solidify the following conclusions: children utilize both probability and outcome information in risky decision-making; the tendency to make more risky choices to avoid a loss than to achieve a gain of equal magnitude, which is a major tenet of the leading theories of risky decision-making, occurs for children as well as adults; children make more risky choices than adults; temperamental predictors of risky choice are valid for children as well as for adults. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Relating individual differences in Attitude toward Ambiguity to risky choicesJOURNAL OF BEHAVIORAL DECISION MAKING, Issue 2 2001Marco Lauriola Abstract Subjects (76 adult Italians of varying ages) completed a two-part procedure. One part used an Ellsberg-type task which allowed for both aggregate and individual level analysis of Attitude toward Ambiguity. The other part used an expanded risky choice task to assess the same subjects' Attitude toward Risk. While there was an overall tendency for subjects to be slightly ambiguity-averse, there was a positive correlation between Attitude toward Ambiguity and Attitude toward Risk. This relation was particularly strong when the risky choice was to avoid a loss rather than to achieve a gain. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Trait anger and anger expression style in children's risky decisionsAGGRESSIVE BEHAVIOR, Issue 1 2009Elisa Gambetti Abstract In this study, 104 children completed a task, measuring risk decision-making, and the State-Trait Anger Expression Inventory for Children and Adolescents . Subjects were also asked to evaluate the degree of danger, benefit, fun and fear perceived for each risky choice. Analyses indicated that (a) risk decision-making was predicted by both trait anger and outward expression of anger; (b) appraisal of danger fully mediated the relationship between trait anger and risk; (c) perceptions of benefit, scare and fun partially mediated the relationship between trait anger and risk; and (d) appraisal of danger partially mediated the relationship between outward expression of anger and risk decision-making. The results provide evidence for a relationship between dispositional anger and risk decision-making during childhood, suggesting a possible explanation of the mechanisms below. In particular, risk decision-making can be viewed as the output of cognitive and emotive processes, linked to dispositional anger that leads children to be amused, optimistic and fearless in potentially risky situations. These findings substantiate the importance of incorporating cognitive and emotive factors in theories that seek to explain the relationship between personality traits and risk decision-making across a broad age range. Aggr. Behav. 35:14,23, 2009. © 2008 Wiley-Liss, Inc. [source] Risk perception and risky choice: Situational, informational and dispositional effectsASIAN JOURNAL OF SOCIAL PSYCHOLOGY, Issue 2 2003Xiao-Fei Xie We investigated how situational (gain,loss), informational (opportunity,threat framing) and dispositional (achievement motive and avoidance motive) variables affected opportunity,threat perception and risky choice in managerial decision-making contexts. In Study 1, the risk preference of the participants showed a reflection effect due to situational differences (gain or loss) and a partial framing effect caused by presenting the same choice information in terms of either opportunities or threats. However, both effects were in the opposite direction of predictions from prospect theory. Gains and positive framing enhanced risk-seeking preference whereas losses and negative framing augmented risk-averse preference. Risk-seeking choices were mediated by opportunity perception whereas risk-averse choices were mediated by threat perception. In Study 2, the participants high in achievement motive perceived greater opportunities in a negative situation, and the participants high in avoidance motive perceived greater threats in a positive situation, suggesting that ambition (achievement motive) operates more significantly in the face of adversities whereas cautiousness (avoidance motive) functions more significantly in prosperity. [source] Decisions from experience and statistical probabilities: Why they trigger different choices than a priori probabilitiesJOURNAL OF BEHAVIORAL DECISION MAKING, Issue 1 2010Robin Hau Abstract The distinction between risk and uncertainty is deeply entrenched in psychologists' and economists' thinking. Knight (1921), to whom it is frequently attributed, however, went beyond this dichotomy. Within the domain of risk, he set apart a priori and statistical probabilities, a distinction that maps onto that between decisions from description and experience, respectively. We argue this distinction is important because risky choices based on a priori (described) and statistical (experienced) probabilities can substantially diverge. To understand why, we examine various possible contributing factors to the description,experience gap. We find that payoff variability and memory limitations play only a small role in the emergence of the gap. In contrast, the presence of rare events and their representation as either natural frequencies in decisions from experience or single-event probabilities in decisions from description appear relevant for the gap. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Developmental insights into experience-based decision makingJOURNAL OF BEHAVIORAL DECISION MAKING, Issue 1 2010Tim Rakow Abstract In three experiments involving children and adults (N,=,324), option payoffs for sure versus risky choices were either described or experienced via observation of 20 outcomes. Choices revealed a description-experience gap for payoffs with rare events, implying greater impact of small probabilities (,.2) for described than for experienced choices. The size of this effect was independent of participant age. Therefore, the role of cognitive limitations in the description-experience distinction remains unclear, as the age groups would have differed in cognitive capacity. Age-related differences in ,sampling style' in decisions from experience were observed. Pre-choice data acquisition changed markedly with age: From frequent alternation between options towards separate systematic exploration of options with increasing age. A fourth experiment, that manipulated sampling style, failed to demonstrate its link to other age-related features of choice (e.g. risk preferences). Our studies illustrate the value of developmental research for testing theoretical claims and revealing novel phenomena in decision research. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] I felt low and my purse feels light: depleting mood regulation attempts affect risk decision makingJOURNAL OF BEHAVIORAL DECISION MAKING, Issue 2 2009Sabrina D. Bruyneel Abstract We propose that negative affect can induce people to engage in risky decisions. We test two alternative hypotheses as to how this effect may emerge. The mood repair hypothesis states that risky choices in risk decision making serve as a means to repair one's negative affect. The depletion hypothesis, in contrast, states that risky choices in risk decision making are the mere consequence of a state of depletion resulting from engagement in active mood regulation attempts. The results of a first laboratory study establish a link between risky choices in risk decision making and negative affect. Subsequent experiments provide evidence that depletion due to active mood regulation attempts, rather than mood repair, is the underlying process for this link. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Stability of choices in a risky decision-making task: a 3-year longitudinal study with children and adultsJOURNAL OF BEHAVIORAL DECISION MAKING, Issue 3 2007Irwin P. Levin Abstract In a 3-year follow-up to Levin and Hart's (2003) study, we observed the same children, now 9,11 years old, and their parents in the same risky decision-making task. At the aggregate level the same pattern of means was observed across time periods. At the individual level the key variables were significantly correlated across time periods for both children and adults. Taken together with the results from the original study and earlier studies, these results solidify the following conclusions: children utilize both probability and outcome information in risky decision-making; the tendency to make more risky choices to avoid a loss than to achieve a gain of equal magnitude, which is a major tenet of the leading theories of risky decision-making, occurs for children as well as adults; children make more risky choices than adults; temperamental predictors of risky choice are valid for children as well as for adults. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Individual differences in the response to forgone payoffs: an examination of high functioning drug abusersJOURNAL OF BEHAVIORAL DECISION MAKING, Issue 2 2005Eldad Yechiam Abstract This study evaluates the effect of forgone payoffs in decision-making tasks used for studying individual differences. We investigate whether the disclosure of forgone payoffs (defined as payoffs associated with un-chosen alternatives) has selective effects for drug abusers. Evidence suggests that drug abusers are hypersensitive to signals of positive reward. Accordingly, because the forgone payoffs of risky high-variability options include rewarding outcomes, this may create a distraction and lead drug abusers to make more risky choices. In a controlled experiment, we examined the behavior of high-functioning drug abusers and healthy controls using the Iowa gambling task. The results showed that in a forgone payoff condition, drug abusers made more risky choices. The results demonstrate that adding information about forgone payoffs can be useful for studying individual differences, and that studying individual differences can be valuable in evaluating the effects of forgone payoffs. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Relating individual differences in Attitude toward Ambiguity to risky choicesJOURNAL OF BEHAVIORAL DECISION MAKING, Issue 2 2001Marco Lauriola Abstract Subjects (76 adult Italians of varying ages) completed a two-part procedure. One part used an Ellsberg-type task which allowed for both aggregate and individual level analysis of Attitude toward Ambiguity. The other part used an expanded risky choice task to assess the same subjects' Attitude toward Risk. While there was an overall tendency for subjects to be slightly ambiguity-averse, there was a positive correlation between Attitude toward Ambiguity and Attitude toward Risk. This relation was particularly strong when the risky choice was to avoid a loss rather than to achieve a gain. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Impaired decision making following 49 h of sleep deprivationJOURNAL OF SLEEP RESEARCH, Issue 1 2006WILLIAM D. S. KILLGORE Summary Sleep deprivation reduces regional cerebral metabolism within the prefrontal cortex, the brain region most responsible for higher-order cognitive processes, including judgment and decision making. Accordingly, we hypothesized that two nights of sleep loss would impair decision making quality and lead to increased risk-taking behavior on the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT), which mimics real-world decision making under conditions of uncertainty. Thirty-four healthy participants completed the IGT at rested baseline and again following 49.5 h of sleep deprivation. At baseline, volunteers performed in a manner similar to that seen in most samples of healthy normal individuals, rapidly learning to avoid high-risk decks and selecting more frequently from advantageous low-risk decks as the game progressed. After sleep loss, however, volunteers showed a strikingly different pattern of performance. Relative to rested baseline, sleep-deprived individuals tended to choose more frequently from risky decks as the game progressed, a pattern similar to, though less severe than, previously published reports of patients with lesions to the ventromedial prefrontal cortex. Although risky decision making was not related to participant age when tested at rested baseline, age was negatively correlated with advantageous decision making on the IGT, when tested following sleep deprivation (i.e. older subjects made more risky choices). These findings suggest that cognitive functions known to be mediated by the ventromedial prefrontal cortex, including decision making under conditions of uncertainty, may be particularly vulnerable to sleep loss and that this vulnerability may become more pronounced with increased age. [source] Decision making in Parkinson's disease: Analysis of behavioral and physiological patterns in the Iowa gambling taskMOVEMENT DISORDERS, Issue 4 2008Mutsutaka Kobayakawa PhD Abstract Recent studies suggest that social recognition processes are affected by Parkinson's disease (PD). However, whether PD patients exhibit behavioral changes is still controversial. The purpose of the present study was to examine the decision making of PD patients performing the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT). We recruited a large number of early, nondemented PD patients for the IGT. We also recorded the skin conductance responses (SCRs) during the task as a measure of emotional arousal. Compared with the normal control (NC) subjects, PD patients selected more disadvantageous decks in the IGT, and their SCRs were lower than those of NC subjects before making decisions and after receiving reward or punishment. The tendency toward risky choices was not correlated with age, education, global cognitive function, or the severity of the disease. These results confirmed that the decision making of PD patients was affected by the disease, rather than by other cognitive functions; moreover, such behavior was related to lower emotional responses. Behavioral and SCR patterns of PD patients were similar to those of amygdala-damaged patients. The response bias toward risky choices in PD may be explained by the dysfunction of the amygdala, which is known to be involved in risk evaluation. © 2007 Movement Disorder Society [source] Entrepreneurship and Risk TakingAPPLIED PSYCHOLOGY, Issue 3 2009Anna Macko According to the definition of entrepreneurship and everyday observation, entrepreneurs are perceived as more risk prone than other people. However, laboratory studies do not provide conclusive support for this claim. In our study, three groups of students served as subjects. One group of students did not express any intention of starting up their own business in the near future. The second group consisted of students who had participated in a special course designed for future entrepreneurs. The third group consisted of students or alumni who became entrepreneurs before graduating. In accordance with Knight's claim, we found that actual entrepreneurs revealed the highest, and students who did not express an intention of starting their own business the lowest, level of self-confidence of all groups participating in the experiment. On the other hand, in well-defined risky situations we did not confirm a hypothesis that would-be entrepreneurs or actual entrepreneurs were more risk prone than students with no intention of starting a business. Yet, in naturalistic-business risky situations we found more risky choices among entrepreneurs than among non-entrepreneurs. Conformément à la définition même de l'esprit d'entreprise et à l'observation quotidienne, les entrepreneurs sont perçus comme étant plus enclins que les autres personnes à prendre des risques. Seulement, les recherches expérimentales ne confirment pas de façon définitive cette conception. Notre étude a porté sur trois groupes d'étudiants. L'un des groupes n'avait aucunement l'intention de créer une entreprise dans un avenir prévisible. Le deuxième groupe était composé d'étudiants qui suivaient un cours spécialement destiné aux futurs entrepreneurs. Le troisième groupe rassemblait des étudiants ou d'anciens étudiants qui devinrent entrepreneurs avant d'être diplômés. En accord avec les propositions de Knight, on a constaté que les entrepreneurs étaient ceux qui avaient la plus forte confiance en eux-mêmes et les jeunes qui n'éprouvaient aucune vocation d'entrepreneur la plus faible. D'autre part, face à des situations de risque bien précises, il fut impossible de corroborer l'hypothèse que les aspirants entrepreneurs ou les chefs d'entreprise étaient plus portés sur le risque que les étudiants n'ayant aucunement l'intention de fonder une entreprise. Toutefois, devant des décisions risquées dans des situations concrètes industrielles ou commerciales, on a observé plus de choix aventureux chez les entrepreneurs que chez ceux qui ne l'étaient pas. [source] | |||||||||||||