			Home About us Contact

Risk Exposure (risk + exposure)

Distribution by Scientific Domains

Business, Economics, Finance and Accounting	52%
Humanities and Social Sciences	19%
Medical Sciences	14%
3 Other Domains	15%

Selected Abstracts

The Impact of Surplus Distribution on the Risk Exposure of With Profit Life Insurance Policies Including Interest Rate Guarantees

JOURNAL OF RISK AND INSURANCE, Issue 3 2007
Alexander Kling
This article analyzes the numerical impact of different surplus distribution mechanisms on the risk exposure of a life insurance company selling with profit life insurance policies with a cliquet-style interest rate guarantee. Three representative companies are considered, each using a different type of surplus distribution: a mechanism, where the guaranteed interest rate also applies to surplus that has been credited in the past, a slightly less restrictive type in which a guaranteed rate of interest of 0 percent applies to past surplus, and a third mechanism that allows for the company to use former surplus in order to compensate for underperformance in "bad" years. Although at the outset all contracts offer the same guaranteed benefit at maturity, a distribution mechanism of the third type yields preferable results with respect to the considered risk measure. In particular, throughout the analysis, our representative company 3 faces ceteris paribus a significantly lower shortfall risk than the other two companies. Offering "strong" guarantees puts companies at a significant competitive disadvantage relative to insurers providing only the third type of surplus distribution mechanism. [source]

Risk Exposure in Early Life and Mortality at Older Ages: Evidence from Union Army Veterans

POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT REVIEW, Issue 2 2009
Dejun Su
This study examines the relation between risk exposures in early life and hazard of mortality among 11,978 Union Army veterans aged 50 and over in 1900. Veterans' risk exposures prior to enlistment,as approximated by birth season, country of birth, residential region, city size, and height at enlistment,significantly influenced their chance of survival after 1900. These effects are robust irrespective of whether socioeconomic well-being in 1900 has been taken into account; however, they are sensitive to the particular age periods selected for survival analysis. Whereas some of the effects such as being born in Ireland and coming from large cities became apparent in the first decade after 1900 and then dissipated over time, the effects of birth season, being born in Germany, residential region in the United States, and height at enlistment were more salient in the post-1910 periods. Height at enlistment shows a positive association with risk of mortality in the post-1910 periods. Compared to corresponding findings from more recent cohorts, the exceptional robustness of the effects of risk exposures prior to enlistment on old-age mortality among the veterans highlights the harshness of living conditions early in their lives. [source]

Cancer incidence in patients with schizophrenia and their first-degree relatives , a meta-analysis

ACTA PSYCHIATRICA SCANDINAVICA, Issue 5 2008
V. S. Catts
Objective:, Controversy concerning cancer incidence in schizophrenia exists because of heterogeneous study findings. Method:, A meta-analysis was performed on standardized incidence ratios (SIR) of cancer in patients with schizophrenia and first-degree relatives and compared with general population samples. Results:, The pooled overall cancer incidence in patients was not significantly increased (SIR = 1.05, CI 0.95,1.15). Lung cancer incidence was slightly increased (SIR = 1.31, CI 1.01,1.71), but was reduced after adjusting for smoking prevalence. The incidence of several cancers unrelated to smoking was reduced in patients. Breast cancer rates were significantly increased in female patients. The pooled overall cancer incidence in siblings (SIR = 0.89, CI 0.84,0.94) and parents (SIR = 0.90, CI 0.88,0.93) was significantly reduced. A meta-regression detected a significant relationship between cancer risk in the general population and relative risk in patients. Conclusion:, The meta-analysis aided exploration of inconsistent study findings. There is a discrepancy between cancer risk exposure and cancer incidence in schizophrenia consistent with a protective effect. [source]

The Interest Rate Risk Exposure of Financial Intermediaries: A Review of the Theory and Empirical Evidence

FINANCIAL MARKETS, INSTITUTIONS & INSTRUMENTS, Issue 4 2003
By Sotiris K. Staikouras
The paper surveys current and previous research on financial institutions' interest rate risk exposure. The implications of such exposure are discussed and motivating insights are emphasized. Various theoretical frameworks and models are presented. For each one an overview of the studies and any relationship to each other is provided. In a cross-industry analysis, other idiosyncratic risk factors are considered and their importance is delineated. A number of empirical relations are established. More specifically, there is an inverse relationship between interest rate changes and common stock returns of financial institutions. The intermediaries' apparent yield sensitivity is mainly attributed to the duration gap inherent in their balance sheet structure. Furthermore, the aforesaid equity sensitivity due to other possible dynamics such as dividend yield, unanticipated inflation and regulatory lags is also considered. Changes in economic regimes have altered volatility in market yields with a subsequent effect, positive or negative, on financial intermediaries' equity returns. The issue of the risk-return compensation is further analyzed, and findings suggest that the interest rate risk is priced by capital markets. Finally, a few other issues are identified as avenues for future research. [source]

Sources of Bank Interest Rate Risk

FINANCIAL REVIEW, Issue 3 2002
Donald R. Fraser
We investigate bank stocks'sensitivity to changes in interest rates and the factors affecting this sensitivity. We focus on whether the exposure of commercial banks to interest rate risk is conditioned on certain balance sheet and income statement ratios. We find a significantly negative relation between bank stock returns and changes in interest rates over the period 1991,1996. We also find that bank characteristics measured from basic financial statement information explain bank stocks'sensitivity to interest rate changes. These results suggest that bank managers, analysts, and regulators can use this information to assess the relative risk exposure of banks. [source]

Real options for precautionary fisheries management

FISH AND FISHERIES, Issue 2 2008
Eli P Fenichel
Abstract The 1996 Food and Agriculture Organization's (FAO) ,Guidelines on the Precautionary Approach to Fisheries and Species Introduction' raise important issues for fisheries managers, but fail to prescribe an approach for risk management. The distinguishing characteristics of the ,precautionary approach' are the inclusion of uncertainty and ,an elaboration on the burden of proof'. The FAO precautionary approach emphasizes that managers should be risk-averse, but does not provide tools for determining the appropriate degree of risk aversion. Consequently, application of the precautionary approach often leads to decision-making based on ad hoc safety margins. These safety margins are seldom chosen with explicit consideration of trade-offs. If the emphasis was shifted to choosing between competing uncertainties, then managers could manage risk. By attempting to avoid risk, managers may gain exposure to other risks and perhaps miss valuable opportunities. We place fishery management problems within the rubric of ,real investment' problems, and compare and contrast the consideration of risk by alternative investment frameworks. We show that traditional investment frameworks are inappropriate for fishery management, and furthermore, that traditional precautionary approaches are arbitrary and without basis in decision theory. Quantitative decision-making techniques, such as formal decision analysis (FDA), enable integration of competing hypotheses that help alleviate burden-of-proof issues. These techniques help analysts consider sources of uncertainty. FDA, however, can still be subject to arbitrary safety margins because such analyses often focus on determining which strategies best achieve, or avoid, targets that have been established without complete consideration of trade-offs. A managerial finance approach, real options analysis (ROA), is an alternative and complementary decision-making technique that enables managers to compute precautionary adjustments that couple the size of the ,safety margin' with the amount of uncertainty, thereby optimizing risk exposure and avoiding the need for arbitrary safety margins. We illustrate the advantages of an approach that combines FDA and ROA, using a heuristic example about a decision to re-introduce Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) into Lake Ontario. Finally, we provide guidance on applying ROA to other fishery problems. The precautionary approach requires that managers consider risk, but considering risk is not the same as managing it. Here ROA is useful. [source]

Optimal asset allocation for a large number of investment opportunities

INTELLIGENT SYSTEMS IN ACCOUNTING, FINANCE & MANAGEMENT, Issue 1 2005
Hans Georg Zimmermann
This paper introduces a stock-picking algorithm that can be used to perform an optimal asset allocation for a large number of investment opportunities. The allocation scheme is based upon the idea of causal risk. Instead of referring to the volatility of the assets time series, the stock-picking algorithm determines the risk exposure of the portfolio by concerning the non-forecastability of the assets. The underlying expected return forecasts are based on time-delay recurrent error correction neural networks, which utilize the last model error as an auxiliary input to evaluate their own misspecification. We demonstrate the profitability of our stock-picking approach by constructing portfolios from 68 different assets of the German stock market. It turns out that our approach is superior to a preset benchmark portfolio. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source]

Excess Risk Premia of Asian Banks

INTERNATIONAL REVIEW OF FINANCE, Issue 2 2000
Jianping (J.P.) Mei
This paper develops a framework for gauging the risks of emerging market banks by using stock market data. Employing a multifactor asset pricing model that allows for time-varying risk premia, we find the presence of large excess risk premia on Asian bank stocks, especially in those markets affected by the Asian financial crisis. We find that the excess risk premia appear to be negatively related to the degree of economic freedom of a country but positively related to its corruption level. Thus, our findings are consistent with the view that crony capitalism in Asia may have distorted the market mechanism or the systematic risk exposure of banks. This suggests that the excess risk premium provides useful information on risk exposure for opaque banking systems where quality accounting information is not available. [source]

Spot water markets and risk in water supply

AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS, Issue 2 2005
Javier Calatrava
Water markets; Economic risk; Water availability; Irrigated agriculture Abstract Water availability patterns in semiarid regions are typically extremely variable. Even in basins with a highly developed infrastructure, users are subject to unreliable water supplies, incurring substantial economic losses during periods of scarcity. More flexible instruments, such as voluntary exchanges of water among users, can help users to reduce risk exposure. This article looks at the effects of spot water markets on the economic risk caused by water availability variations. Our theoretical and empirical risk analyses are based on the random profits of water users. Profit probability density functions are formally and graphically characterized for both water sellers and buyers under several possible market outcomes. We conclude from this analysis that, where water supply is stochastic, water markets unambiguously reduce both parties' risk exposure. The empirical study is conducted on an irrigation district in the Guadalquivir Valley (Southern Spain), where there is a high probability of periods of extreme water scarcity. Water demand functions for the district representative irrigators and a spatial equilibrium model are used to simulate market exchanges and equilibrium. This programming model is combined with statistical simulation techniques. We show that the profit probability distribution of a representative irrigator is modified if water exchanges are authorized, leading to risk reductions. Results also indicate that if the market were extended to several districts and users that are subject to varying hydrological risk exposure, extremely low-profit events would be less likely to occur. In sum, we show that exchanging water in annual spot markets can reduce farmers' economic vulnerability caused by water supply variability across irrigation seasons. These results support the water policy reform carried out in Spain in 1999 to allow for voluntary water exchanges among right holders. [source]

Cumulative Environmental Risk and Youth Problem Behavior

JOURNAL OF MARRIAGE AND FAMILY, Issue 3 2004
Jean M. Gerard
Using data from Wave 1 (n = 5,070) and Wave 2 (n = 4,404) of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health, we examined the relationship between cumulative risk exposure and youth problem behavior. Cross-sectional analyses revealed a positive, linear association between cumulative risk and problem behaviors. The association between cumulative risk and externalizing problems was stronger for White youth than for Black youth. The association between cumulative risk and internalizing problems was stronger for girls than for boys, and stronger for White youth than for Black and Hispanic youth. Cumulative risk predicted change over time in internalizing problems. Findings support the theoretical notion that adolescents experience diminished psychological comfort when risk factors are present across several social domains. [source]

The Impact of Surplus Distribution on the Risk Exposure of With Profit Life Insurance Policies Including Interest Rate Guarantees

Cash Flow, Consumption Risk, and the Cross-section of Stock Returns

THE JOURNAL OF FINANCE, Issue 2 2009
ZHI DA
ABSTRACT I link an asset's risk premium to two characteristics of its underlying cash flow: covariance and duration. Using empirically novel estimates of both cash flow characteristics based exclusively on accounting earnings and aggregate consumption data, I examine their dynamic interaction in a two-factor cash flow model and find that they are able to explain up to 82% of the cross-sectional variation in the average returns on size, book-to-market, and long-term reversal-sorted portfolios for the period 1964 to 2002. This finding highlights the importance of fundamental cash flow characteristics in determining the risk exposure of an asset. [source]

CASA-based sperm kinematics of environmental risk factor-exposed human semen samples designated as normozoospermic in conventional analysis

ANDROLOGIA, Issue 4 2010
D. Mukhopadhyay
Summary This study was conducted after an initial epidemiological survey of patients in and around Calcutta, India, concerning their lifestyle history, degree of risk exposure and semen analysis based on conventional WHO criteria. It was found that a large group of exposed patients were showing normozoospermic semen parameters in conventional semen analysis. Hence, a selected group of subjects, designated as normozoospermic in routine analysis, but under risk factor exposure, were selected for a repeat computer aided semen analysis (CASA) and were compared with a control group. The parameters considered among CASA results were: curvilinear velocity (VCL), straight-line velocity, average path velocity (VAP), straightness index (STR), lateral head displacement (ALH) and beat cross frequency. The results depict a significant decline in the mean values of VCL (P = 0.029) and STR (P = 0.007) in the tobacco-exposed group when compared with the unexposed group. On the other hand, there was a significant decline in the mean values of VCL (P = 0.014) and ALH (P = 0.040) in the heavy metal-exposed group when compared with the unexposed group. The other parameters did not show significant change in either group. Semen samples that had been designated normozoospermic in conventional analysis were seen to be influenced by risk factors at the level of sperm motion kinetics. [source]

Risk Sensitivity of Bank Stocks in Malaysia: Empirical Evidence Across the Asian Financial Crisis

ASIAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL, Issue 3 2004
Chee Wooi Hooy
The present study examines the sensitivity of commercial banks' stock excess returns to their volatility and financial risk factors, measured by interest rates and exchange rates, across the recent Asian financial crisis. In general, we found that there were no significant differences among Malaysian commercial banks in their risk exposure prior to and during the Asian financial crisis. The introduction of selective capital controls, a fixed exchange rate regime and a forced banking consolidation program, however, had increased the risk exposure of both large and small domestic banks. The effects of these risk factors were significantly detected in both large and small banks. [source]

Self-reported water and drowning risk exposure at surf beaches

AUSTRALIAN AND NEW ZEALAND JOURNAL OF PUBLIC HEALTH, Issue 2 2009
Damian Morgan
Abstract Objective: To document patterns of water exposure at surf beaches by gender and identify factors that predict bather confidence to return to shore if caught in a rip current. Method: Recreational surf beach bathers (N=406) provided self-completed data on water exposure patterns, surf activity behaviours and potential drowning risk and protective factors. Results: Relative to females, males visited surf beaches more frequently, expected to spend longer in the water and in deeper water, and more often bathed after using alcohol (p<0.05). Confidence to return to shore if caught in a rip current was predicted by confidence to identify a rip current, self-rated swimming ability, gender, times visited any beach, and age in a standard linear regression model (adjusted R2=0.68). Conclusion: The study supports explanations that high male drowning rates result from more frequent exposure to water than females at high situational risk levels. Implications: Controlled studies are required to determine the role in drowning of overconfidence, swimming ability, surf experience, floatation devices and response to sea conditions. [source]

Building secure products and solutions

BELL LABS TECHNICAL JOURNAL, Issue 3 2007
Ashok K. Gupta
Many security vulnerabilities in current information technology (IT) solutions and products are the result of a piecemeal "strap-on" security approach. The inclusion of many security add-ons, such as firewalls, antivirus software, intrusion detection systems (IDSs), and intrusion prevention systems (IPSs), may imply that the security objectives were an afterthought, not adequately defined initially, or that the required security objectives were never met by the individual system components. In fact, a "grounds-up" approach to security, where each component is individually secure, in a defined network deployment scenario helps meet the need of minimal risk exposure. Security should not be bolted on; rather, it should be the prime consideration from the beginning and throughout the entire lifecycle,from concept to deployment and ongoing operation for each product in the solution. Given the ever-increasing sophistication of attacks, developing and monitoring secure products have become increasingly difficult. Despite the wide-scale awareness of common security flaws in software products, e.g., buffer overflows, resource exhaustion, and structured query language (SQL) injection, the same flaws continue to exist in some of the current products. The objective of this paper is to introduce a technology-agnostic approach to integrating security into the product development lifecycle. The approach leverages the Bell Labs Security Framework, the foundation of the International Telecommunication Union, Telecommunication Standardization Sector (ITU-T) X.805 global standard. Building this framework into the product lifecycle supports the goal of realizing secure products. The security framework can be applied to any product domain to facilitate security requirements analysis and the development of usable tools such as checklists, guidelines, and security policies. The application of Bell Labs Security Framework concepts and its use in the development of secure products are illustrated using the example of a centrally managed firewall product. © 2007 Alcatel-Lucent. [source]

Psychosocial risk exposures and musculoskeletal disorders across working-age males and females

HUMAN FACTORS AND ERGONOMICS IN MANUFACTURING & SERVICE INDUSTRIES, Issue 4 2010
John Collins
Abstract In 2008, The European Agency for Safety and Health at Work (EU-OSHA) reported that musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs) were the most common work-related health problem in Europe. Females are considered more susceptible to MSDs than are males, and older workers are more vulnerable than are younger workers. Factors specific to the job, work organization, and individual have been implicated as potential risk factors, with current interest focusing on psychosocial risk factors and the pathology of disorders. Although there is some disagreement in the literature, there is growing support that, after controlling for exposure, females have a predisposition to MSDs. More is known of the role of psychosocial risks in MSD etiology, but it is unclear if there are differences in exposures across gender and age and if this has a resultant effect on injury rates. The purpose of this study was to investigate the prevalence of MSDs and trends with psychosocial risks, across age and gender. The study group consisted of 200 female and 132 male employees from varied occupations within Ireland, ranging from age 18,66 years. The most prevalent symptoms of MSDs were for the lower back, shoulder, and neck regions. Age and gender differences in prevalence were evident for these regions. There was a general trend for increasing prevalence with age. For the psychosocial risks, significant differences in job content exposures were observed across age groups for males (p < 0.05) and females (p < 0.0005). There were also differences in scores across the age groups for mental health (p < 0.0005) and insecurity at work (p < 0.0005) for the females. The conclusions are that there were not sufficiently strong differences in exposures to relevant psychosocial risks both between genders and across age for a resultant effect on MSDs. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. [source]