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Recidivism
Kinds of Recidivism Terms modified by Recidivism Selected AbstractsESTIMATING A DOSE-RESPONSE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN LENGTH OF STAY AND FUTURE RECIDIVISM IN SERIOUS JUVENILE OFFENDERS,CRIMINOLOGY, Issue 3 2009THOMAS A. LOUGHRAN The effect of sanctions on subsequent criminal activity is of central theoretical importance in criminology. A key question for juvenile justice policy is the degree to which serious juvenile offenders respond to sanctions and/or treatment administered by the juvenile court. The policy question germane to this debate is finding the level of confinement within the juvenile justice system that maximizes the public safety and therapeutic benefits of institutional confinement. Unfortunately, research on this issue has been limited with regard to serious juvenile offenders. We use longitudinal data from a large sample of serious juvenile offenders from two large cities to 1) estimate a causal treatment effect of institutional placement, as opposed to probation, on future rate of rearrest and 2) investigate the existence of a marginal effect (i.e., benefit) for longer length of stay once the institutional placement decision had been made. We accomplish the latter by determining a dose-response relationship between the length of stay and future rates of rearrest and self-reported offending. The results suggest that an overall null effect of placement exists on future rates of rearrest or self-reported offending for serious juvenile offenders. We also find that, for the group placed out of the community, it is apparent that little or no marginal benefit exists for longer lengths of stay. Theoretical, empirical, and policy issues are outlined. [source] SOCIAL ECOLOGY AND RECIDIVISM: IMPLICATIONS FOR PRISONER REENTRY,CRIMINOLOGY, Issue 2 2008DANIEL P. MEARS Despite the marked increase in incarceration over the past 30 years and the fact that roughly two thirds of released offenders are rearrested within 3 years of release, we know little about how the social ecology of the areas to which offenders return may influence their recidivism or whether it disproportionately affects some groups more than others. Drawing on recent scholarship on prisoner reentry and macrolevel predictors of crime, this study examines a large sample of prisoners released to Florida communities to investigate how two dimensions of social ecology,resource deprivation and racial segregation,may independently, and in interaction with specific populations, influence recidivism. The findings suggest that ecology indeed is consequential for recidivism, and it differentially influences some groups more than others. We discuss these findings and their implications for theory, research, and policy. [source] THE LABELING OF CONVICTED FELONS AND ITS CONSEQUENCES FOR RECIDIVISM,CRIMINOLOGY, Issue 3 2007TED CHIRICOS Florida law allows judges to withhold adjudication of guilt for individuals who have been found guilty of a felony and are being sentenced to probation. Such individuals lose no civil rights and may lawfully assert they had not been convicted of a felony. Labeling theory would predict that the receipt of a felony label could increase the likelihood of recidivism. Reconviction data for 95,919 men and women who were either adjudicated or had adjudication withheld show that those formally labeled are significantly more likely to recidivate in 2 years than those who are not. Labeling effects are stronger for women, whites, and those who reach the age of 30 years without a prior conviction. Second-level indicators of county characteristics (e.g., crime rates or concentrated disadvantage) have no significant effect on the adjudication/recidivism relationship. [source] PRISON GANG POLICY AND RECIDIVISM: SHORT-TERM MANAGEMENT BENEFITS, LONG-TERM CONSEQUENCESCRIMINOLOGY AND PUBLIC POLICY, Issue 2 2007MARIE GRIFFIN First page of article [source] EMPLOYMENT COUNSELING, HOUSING ASSISTANCE, AND AUNT YOLANDA?: HOW STRENGTHENING FAMILIES' SOCIAL CAPITAL CAN REDUCE RECIDIVISMCRIMINOLOGY AND PUBLIC POLICY, Issue 2 2004JEANNE FLAVIN First page of article [source] PARTNER AGGRESSION SEVERITY AS A RISK MARKER FOR MALE AND FEMALE VIOLENCE RECIDIVISMJOURNAL OF MARITAL AND FAMILY THERAPY, Issue 3 2006Erica M. Woodin Pretreatment aggression severity was examined as a risk marker for recidivism in the treatment of partner aggression. Intact married couples experiencing husband-to-wife partner aggression were recruited from the community and participated in either conjoint group treatment or gender-specific group treatment. Elevated levels of husband and wife physical aggression and wife psychological aggression before treatment predicted the continuation and severity of physical aggression by both spouses during treatment and in the following year, with no significant differences across treatment formats. These results indicate that high levels of psychological and physical aggression signify a poor prognosis for both conjoint and gender-specific group treatment programs, suggesting the need for interventions of greater intensity, duration, and/or focus for individuals highest in psychological and physical aggression. [source] The effect of discordance among violence and general recidivism risk estimates on predictive accuracyCRIMINAL BEHAVIOUR AND MENTAL HEALTH, Issue 3 2006Jeremy F. Mills Introduction,Previous research has shown that the prediction of short-term inpatient violence is negatively affected when clinicians' inter-rater agreement is low and when confidence in the estimate of risk is low. This study examined the effect of discordance between risk assessment instruments used to predict long-term general and violence risk in offenders. Methods,The Psychopathy Checklist , Revised (PCL,R), Level of Service Inventory , Revised (LSI,R), Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG), and the General Statistical Information on Recidivism (GSIR) were the four risk-prediction instruments used to predict post-release general and violent recidivism within a sample of 209 offenders. Results,The findings lend empirical support to the assumption that predictive accuracy is threatened where there is discordance between risk estimates. Discordance between instruments had the impact of reducing predictive accuracy for all instruments except the GSIR. Further, the influence of discordance was shown to be greater on certain instruments over others. Discordance had a moderating effect on both the PCL,R and LSI,R but not on the VRAG and GSIR. Conclusions,There is a distinct advantage when attempting to predict recidivism to employing measures such as the LSI-R, which includes dynamic variables and intervention-related criminogenic domains, over a measure purely of fixed characteristics, such as the GSIR; however, if there is discordance between the risk estimates, caution should be exercised and more reliance on the more static historically based instrument may be indicated. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Patterns and Predictors of Smoking Cessation in an Elderly CohortJOURNAL OF AMERICAN GERIATRICS SOCIETY, Issue 3 2006Heather E. Whitson MD OBJECTIVES: To identify subject characteristics that predict smoking cessation and describe patterns of cessation and recidivism in a cohort of elderly smokers. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: Piedmont region, North Carolina. PARTICIPANTS: Five hundred seventy-three subjects enrolled in the North Carolina Established Populations for Epidemiologic Studies of the Elderly who responded "yes" to question 179 on the baseline survey (Do you smoke cigarettes regularly now?) and survived at least 3 years, until the next in-person follow-up (1989/90). Subjects were classified as quitters (n=100) or nonquitters (n=473) based on subsequent smoking behavior. MEASUREMENTS: Reported smoking behavior, demographic characteristics of the smokers at baseline or subsequent interviews, 7-year mortality. RESULTS: After controlling for all characteristics studied, subjects who quit smoking were more likely to be female (P=.03) and showed a trend toward greater likelihood of a recent cancer diagnosis (P=.11). Recidivism was observed in only 16% (19/119) of subjects who reported no smoking in 1989/90. The percentage of subjects who died during 7 years of follow-up was 44.0% of quitters, compared with 51.6% of nonquitters. Smoking cessation was not associated with a statistically significant decrease in risk of death after controlling for other variables (odds ratio=0.78, 95% confidence interval=0.48,1.26). CONCLUSION: Smoking cessation in this elderly cohort was associated with different subject characteristics from those that predict successful cessation in younger populations, suggesting that older smokers may have unique reasons to stop smoking. Further study is needed to assess potential motives and benefits associated with smoking cessation at an advanced age. [source] Application of the Theory of Planned Behavior to Recidivism: The Role of Personal Norm in Predicting Behavioral Intentions of Re-Offending,JOURNAL OF APPLIED SOCIAL PSYCHOLOGY, Issue 9 2008Stavros P. Kiriakidis The study is a partial application of the theory of planned behavior (TPB) to the prediction of young offenders' behavioral intentions to re-offend. Participants were 152 young offenders who were randomly selected and who completed a self-report questionnaire assessing the sociocognitive determinants of the TPB and personal norm. It was found that attitudes and perceived behavioral control are necessary factors for the prediction of intentions to re-offend; while personal norm contributed significantly, yet marginally. The TPB provides a parsimonious way to predict behavioral intentions to re-offend. Personal norm could be a variable that expands the model when it is applied to the prediction of young offenders' behavioral intentions to re-offend. [source] MAOA Alters the Effects of Heavy Drinking and Childhood Physical Abuse on Risk for Severe Impulsive Acts of Violence Among Alcoholic Violent OffendersALCOHOLISM, Issue 5 2010Roope Tikkanen Background:, A polymorphism in the promoter region of the monoamine oxidase A gene (MAOA) has been shown to alter the effect of persistent drinking and childhood maltreatment on the risk for violent and antisocial behaviors. These findings indicate that MAOA could contribute to inter-individual differences in stress resiliency. Methods:, Recidivism in severe violent crimes was assessed after 8 years of nonincarcerated follow-up in a male sample of 174 impulsive Finnish alcoholic violent offenders, the majority of whom exhibited antisocial (ASPD) or borderline personality disorder (BPD) or both. We examined whether MAOA genotype alters the effects of heavy drinking and childhood physical abuse (CPA) on the risk for committing impulsive recidivistic violent crimes. Results:, Logistic regression analyses showed that both heavy drinking and CPA were significant independent predictors of recidivism in violent behavior (OR 5.2, p = 0.004 and OR 5.3, p = 0.003) among offenders having the high MAOA activity genotype (MAOA-H), but these predictors showed no effect among offenders carrying the low MAOA activity genotype (MAOA-L). Conclusion:, Carriers of the MAOA-H allele have a high risk to commit severe recidivistic impulsive violent crimes after exposure to heavy drinking and CPA. [source] Effects of MAOA -Genotype, Alcohol Consumption, and Aging on Violent BehaviorALCOHOLISM, Issue 3 2009Roope Tikkanen Background:, Environmental factors appear to interact with a functional polymorphism (MAOA-LPR) in the promoter region of the monoamine oxidase A gene (MAOA) in determining some forms of antisocial behavior. However, how MAOA - LPR modulates the effects of other factors such as alcohol consumption related to antisocial behavior is not completely understood. Methods:, This study examines the conjunct effect of MAOA-LPR, alcohol consumption, and aging on the risk for violent behavior. Recidivism in severe impulsive violent behavior was assessed after 7 to 15 years in a sample of 174 Finnish alcoholic offenders, the majority of whom exhibited antisocial or borderline personality disorder or both, and featured impulsive temperament traits. Results:, The risk for committing new acts of violence increased by 2.3% for each kilogram of increase in yearly mean alcohol consumption (p = 0.004) and decreased by 7.3% for every year among offenders carrying the high activity MAOA genotype. In contrast, alcohol consumption and aging failed to affect violent behavior in the low activity MAOA genotyped offenders. MAOA-LPR showed no main effect on the risk for recidivistic violence. Conclusions:, Violent offenders carrying the high activity MAOA genotype differ in several ways from carriers with the low activity MAOA risk allele previously associated with antisocial behavior. Finnish high activity MAOA genotyped risk alcoholics exhibiting antisocial behavior, high alcohol consumption, and abnormal alcohol-related impulsive and uncontrolled violence might represent an etiologically distinct alcohol dependence subtype. [source] Reduction in Recidivism in a Juvenile Mental Health Court: A Pre- and Post-Treatment Outcome StudyJUVENILE AND FAMILY COURT JOURNAL, Issue 3 2009Monic P. Behnken ABSTRACT A review of an evaluation of the Court for the Individualized Treatment of Adolescents (a prototype Juvenile Mental Health Court in Santa Clara, California) is presented along with admission criteria. Participant demographics are described. McNemar Test and Paired T Test results show that study participants committed violent, aggressive, and property crimes in significantly lower numbers in the 23 months following court admission than in the 18 months preceding court admission, despite escalating patterns of antisocial behavior prior to court involvement. The importance of developing multidisciplinary models to address moderately severe offenders with serious mental illness is discussed. [source] Low-Risk Youths Referred to Pima County Juvenile Court Center Detention Intake: Needs, Detention, and RecidivismJUVENILE AND FAMILY COURT JOURNAL, Issue 3 2009Margaret Frola ABSTRACT Delinquent youths who were low risk to re-offend were the subject of this study. It was hypothesized that these youths would have high levels of need (e.g., mental illness) and that detention would lead to increased recidivism. Demographic and social factors, delinquency history, and recidivism data were analyzed, producing four major findings: low-risk youths have high needs, low-risk youths recidivate at high rates, unaddressed needs increase the likelihood of detention and recidivism, and behavioral health needs were among the strongest predictors of recidivism. The factors that lead to recidivism are discussed, and suggestions for improving outcomes are also presented. [source] Reintegrative Shaming, Procedural Justice, and Recidivism: The Engagement of Offenders' Psychological Mechanisms in the Canberra RISE Drinking-and-Driving ExperimentLAW & SOCIETY REVIEW, Issue 3 2007Tom R. Tyler Advocates of restorative justice (RJ) hypothesize that the diversion of criminal cases to RJ conferences should be more effective in lowering the rate of reoffending than traditional prosecution in court processing because the conferences more effectively engage the psychological mechanisms of reintegrative shaming and procedural justice. This study uses longitudinal data from the drinking-and-driving study in the Australian Reintegrative Shaming Experiments (RISE) to evaluate the long-term impact of reintegrative shaming and procedural justice on support for the law and on later recidivism as assessed through the use of police records and by self-report. Analysis first suggests that there is no direct effect of experimental condition on later recidivism. However, it further suggests that both traditional court-based prosecution and RJ conferences increase support for the law and lower the rate of future reoffending when they engage the social psychological mechanisms of reintegrative shaming and procedural justice and thereby increase the legitimacy of the law. Hence, the results argue for the potential value of procedures such as the RJ conference but indicate that those procedures will only achieve their objectives if they are effectively designed and implemented. [source] Determinants of Recidivism in Paroled Queensland Prisoners: A Comparative Analysis of Custodial and Socioeconomic CharacteristicsAUSTRALIAN ECONOMIC PAPERS, Issue 3 2000Andrew Worthington A multinomial ordered probit model is used to predict post-release performance in a sample of Queensland prisoners released between January 1992 and December 1994. Post-release performance is defined in terms of the seriousness of parole breaches and/or reoffences over the length of the parole period or until April 1996. The paper examines the statistical significance of a number of custodial and socioeconomic variables on the likelihood of a parole breach or re-offence. Factors analysed include family composition, age, occupation, ethnicity, the number of events in custody, the number of prison violations and the length of sentence of the most recent custodial episode. All other things being equal, the marginal effects of readmission with respect to the set of explanatory variables varies markedly according to whether readmission is through a parole breach or through actual recidivist behaviour. [source] A classification of risk factors in serious juvenile offenders and the relation between patterns of risk factors and recidivismCRIMINAL BEHAVIOUR AND MENTAL HEALTH, Issue 1 2010Eva Mulder Background,There has been a lot of research on risk factors for recidivism among juvenile offenders, in general, and on individual risk factors, but less focus on subgroups of serious juvenile offenders and prediction of recidivism within these. Objective,To find an optimal classification of risk items and to test the predictive value of the resultant factors with respect to severity of recidivism among serious juvenile offenders. Method,Seventy static and dynamic risk factors in 1154 juvenile offenders were registered with the Juvenile Forensic Profile. Recidivism data were collected on 728 of these offenders with a time at risk of at least 2 years. After factor analysis, independent sample t-tests were used to indicate differences between recidivists and non-recidivists. Logistic multiple linear regression analyses were used to test the potential predictive value of the factors for violent or serious recidivism. Results,A nine-factor solution best accounted for the data. The factors were: antisocial behaviour during treatment, sexual problems, family problems, axis-1 psychopathology, offence characteristics, conscience and empathy, intellectual and social capacities, social network, and substance abuse. Regression analysis showed that the factors antisocial behaviour during treatment, family problems and axis-1 psychopathology were associated with seriousness of recidivism. Conclusions and implications for practice,The significance of family problems and antisocial behaviour during treatments suggest that specific attention to these factors may be important in reducing recidivism. The fact that antisocial behaviour during treatment consists mainly of dynamic risk factors is hopeful as these can be influenced by treatment. Consideration of young offenders by subgroup rather than as a homogenous population is likely to yield the best information about risk of serious re-offending and the management of that risk. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Low internalised restraint predicts criminal recidivism in young female prisonersCRIMINAL BEHAVIOUR AND MENTAL HEALTH, Issue 5 2009Ellen Kjelsberg Background,The Weinberger Adjustment Inventory (WAI) measures social-emotional adjustment along two dimensions: distress and restraint. Four types of adjustment according to this measure have been shown to correlate with criminal recidivism among young male prisoners: reactive (high distress, low restraint), suppressor (high distress, high restraint), non-reactive (low distress, low restraint) and repressor (low distress, high restraint). Aim,To evaluate the predictive potential of the WAI among young female prisoners. Methods,Women under 30 years old, consecutively admitted to one of three Norwegian prisons, were asked to complete the WAI. Most of those eligible (102, 94%) did so. Re-conviction data were collected from the National Crime Register 38 months (SD = 9.0) after release. Results,The overall re-conviction rate was 38%. Rates differed according to the four WAI types: 53% in the non-reactive, 50% in the reactive, 22% in the suppressor and 11% in the repressor group (p = 0.006). Kaplan,Meier analyses showed that group differences were explained by the WAI restraint dimension (p = 0.008). Differences on the distress dimension did not influence re-conviction. Cox regression analysis (adjusting for age at first court conviction and prior offences) found that women with low restraint scores were almost three times as likely to re-offend as women with high restraint scores. Conclusion,The WAI appears to be an effective tool for identifying women who are particularly vulnerable to re-offending. Evidence of high capacity for restraint is protective, regardless of distress levels and even after adjusting for the effect of other criminologically important factors. The findings are suggestive that there may be value in individualising ,treatment' or rehabilitation programmes for prisoners. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Psychopathy and offence severity in sexually aggressive and violent youthCRIMINAL BEHAVIOUR AND MENTAL HEALTH, Issue 4 2009Amber Fougere Background,A large proportion of violent crimes are committed by youths. Youths with psychopathic traits may have a higher risk for recidivism and violence. Aims/hypotheses,Our aim was to compare sexually aggressive with violent young men on offence severity and psychopathy. Three hypotheses were proposed: first, young men with previous offences would display a progressive increase in seriousness of offence during their criminal career; secondly, the sexually aggressive and violent young men would not differ in scores on the Hare Psychopathy Checklist: Youth Version (PCL:YV); but, thirdly, PCL:YV scores would be positively correlated with the severity of the index crime, as measured by the Cormier,Lang System for Quantifying Criminal History. Methods,Information was collected from the files of 40 young men in conflict with the law, and the PCL:Youth Version (YV) rated from this by trained raters. Results,The offences of these young men became more serious over time, but we found no association between PCL:YV scores and offence type or seriousness. Conclusions and implications,This exploratory research suggests the importance of understanding the progression in offending careers, but a limited role for the PCL:YV in doing so. Given the small sample size, however, and the limit on access to information about details of age, the findings need replication. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Violent recidivism among mentally disordered offenders in JapanCRIMINAL BEHAVIOUR AND MENTAL HEALTH, Issue 3 2007Kazuo Yoshikawa Background,A new forensic mental health law was enacted in Japan in 2003, enabling development of specialist services. Before their establishment, it is important to determine the nature, frequency and correlates of the problems they are designed to ameliorate. Aims,To establish rates of violent recidivism among mentally disordered offenders before the new legislation, and examine associated risk factors. Method,Data were extracted from one complete annual (1980) national cohort of people judged by the Court or prosecutor to be without responsibility for a criminal offence, or of sufficiently diminished responsibility for it to be diverted for psychiatric treatment. The outcome measure was violent recidivism after community discharge and before 1991. Results,Fifty-two (10%) of 489 in the cohort were arrested or convicted of further violent offences. Violent recidivism was most strongly associated with a substance-related disorder, but histories of violence, homelessness and short index admissions were independently related. Conclusions,Violent recidivism was so unusual that, on this outcome, it could take many years to show any effect of the new service. Desistance from substance use, compliance with treatment and maintenance of stable housing may be better indicators of success, and their achievement a good preventive strategy. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] The validity of the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG) in predicting criminal recidivismCRIMINAL BEHAVIOUR AND MENTAL HEALTH, Issue 2 2007Carolin Kröner Introduction,The VRAG is an actuarial risk assessment instrument, developed in Canada as an aid to estimating the probability of reoffending by mentally ill offenders. Aim,To test the predictive validity of the VRAG with a German sample. Method,The predictive validity of the VRAG was tested on a sample of 136 people charged with a criminal offence and under evaluation for criminal responsibility in the forensic psychiatry department at the University of Munich in 1994,95. The predicted outcome was tested by means of ROC analysis for correlation with the observed rate of recidivism between discharge after the 1994,95 assessment and the census date of 31 March 2003. Recidivism rate was calculated from the official records of the National Conviction Registry. Results,Just over 38% of the sample had reoffended by 2003. Their mean time-at-risk was 58 months (SD 3.391; range 0,115 months). The VRAG yielded a high predictive accuracy in the ROC analysis with an AUC of 0.703. For a constant time-at-risk < = 7 years, the predicted probability and observed rates of recidivism correlated significantly with Pearson's r = 0.941. Conclusions,The validity of the VRAG was replicated with a German sample. The VRAG yielded good predictive accuracy, despite differences in sample and outcome variables compared with its original sample. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] A systematic review of structured group interventions with mentally disordered offendersCRIMINAL BEHAVIOUR AND MENTAL HEALTH, Issue 4 2006Edward A.S. Duncan Background,Over the last 15 years, rehabilitation of offenders has been rigorously researched, resulting in new knowledge and understanding about factors decreasing recidivism amongst them. Typically, such interventions have been based on cognitive behavioural therapy. However, until recently, little research had been carried out on the rehabilitation of offenders with mental disorder. The authors present the first systematic review of the efficacy of structured group interventions with mentally disordered offenders. Aim,To evaluate structured group interventions with mentally disordered offenders through systematic review of the evidence for their efficacy and effectiveness. Methods,A standardized search strategy, with complementary methods of data retrieval to ensure a high degree of recall, was employed. Meta-analysis was not undertaken due to sample heterogeneity and lack of comparable data. Instead, effect sizes were calculated on all papers with sufficient data. Pooled effect sizes were calculated for groups of interventions with a similar focus. Results,Twenty studies were retrieved that fitted the inclusion criteria. It was possible to categorize these, predominantly British, studies into four main themes: problem-solving; anger/aggression management; self-harm; and other. The mean pooled effect sizes for the first two groups were suggestive of a moderate to high effect, but methodological variation means that these findings should still be treated as preliminary. Discussion and conclusions,Calculated effect sizes give optimism for the efficacy of structured group interventions with mentally disordered offenders. It is important now that more rigorous and consistent research methods be applied, even in secure hospital environments. Some suggestions towards achieving this are offered, drawing from the work to date, inclusive of the need for agreement on common outcome measures and development of networks to improve sample sizes. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Exploring the possibility of risk assessment of Japanese sexual offenders using Static-99CRIMINAL BEHAVIOUR AND MENTAL HEALTH, Issue 3 2006Junya Sudo Background,The number of sexual offences reported in Japan doubled between 1992 and 2002. This has prompted attention to assessment of risk of recidivism. Aims,To explore whether an actuarial assessment of risk widely used in the West can be meaningfully applied to Japanese men serving a prison sentence for sexual offences. Method,All sex offenders incarcerated in Kitakyushu Medical Prison in Fukuoka at any time in a period of one year (1 July 2002-30 June 2003) were identified. Demographic data, characteristics of offences and the Static-99 were rated from records. Results,Following a slightly modified application of coding rules, all items of the Static-99 were rateable. Nine offenders of 45 whose Static-99 score was over 6 were thus identified as high-risk offenders. The items distinguishing apparently high-risk men were history of institutionalization as a delinquent and mental retardation. Conclusions and implications for practice,The Static-99 may be a useful tool in assessing sex offenders in Japan. With apparently increasing recognition of sex crimes here, it seems timely to be developing a systematic approach to assessment. Further work is required to test its value in practice as a predictor of recidivism. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] The effect of discordance among violence and general recidivism risk estimates on predictive accuracyCRIMINAL BEHAVIOUR AND MENTAL HEALTH, Issue 3 2006Jeremy F. Mills Introduction,Previous research has shown that the prediction of short-term inpatient violence is negatively affected when clinicians' inter-rater agreement is low and when confidence in the estimate of risk is low. This study examined the effect of discordance between risk assessment instruments used to predict long-term general and violence risk in offenders. Methods,The Psychopathy Checklist , Revised (PCL,R), Level of Service Inventory , Revised (LSI,R), Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG), and the General Statistical Information on Recidivism (GSIR) were the four risk-prediction instruments used to predict post-release general and violent recidivism within a sample of 209 offenders. Results,The findings lend empirical support to the assumption that predictive accuracy is threatened where there is discordance between risk estimates. Discordance between instruments had the impact of reducing predictive accuracy for all instruments except the GSIR. Further, the influence of discordance was shown to be greater on certain instruments over others. Discordance had a moderating effect on both the PCL,R and LSI,R but not on the VRAG and GSIR. Conclusions,There is a distinct advantage when attempting to predict recidivism to employing measures such as the LSI-R, which includes dynamic variables and intervention-related criminogenic domains, over a measure purely of fixed characteristics, such as the GSIR; however, if there is discordance between the risk estimates, caution should be exercised and more reliance on the more static historically based instrument may be indicated. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] The probabilities of sex offender re-arrestCRIMINAL BEHAVIOUR AND MENTAL HEALTH, Issue 2 2003Roderic Broadhurst Associate Professor Background Estimates of the probabilities of re-arrest for sex offenders apprehended in Western Australia between April 1984 and December 1994 are reported. Population and method Of the 116,151 distinct male persons arrested for the first time from 1984,94, 2785 were identified with at least one sex offence. Subjects on average were followed up for 5.7 years and assessed by criminal record, Aboriginality, bail status, age, occupation and penal intervention. Three criteria, rearrest for any, repeat sex or a violent offence are used to summarize the ,careers' of sex offenders. Results Overall ultimate probabilities of rearrest for any offence were 0.61, for a repeat sex offence 0.33 and for a violent offence 0.51. Probabilities of re-arrest for non-Aboriginal offenders were lower for all definitions. Younger offenders, Aborigines and those with prior arrest for non-sex offences had higher probabilities for any or violent rearrest but older offenders tended to have higher probabilities of repeat sex offending. Community supervision and imprisonment significantly reduced the ,rate' or speed of re-arrest. Discussion Actuarial risk assessments for low-probability high-consequence events such as dangerous recidivism are useful for identifying groups with a high probability of rearrest, assisting management of these groups and evaluating penal interventions. Copyright © 2003 Whurr Publishers Ltd. [source] Alcohol use and negative affect in the offence cycleCRIMINAL BEHAVIOUR AND MENTAL HEALTH, Issue 1 2003Andrew Day Introduction It is commonly acknowledged that, for many offenders, alcohol use is strongly associated with criminal behaviour. The belief held by many professionals that the two phenomena are associated, probably in a causal way, has led to the inclusion of alcohol use as a ,criminogenic need' in many settings where rehabilitation programmes are used to reduce recidivism. However, the mechanisms and pathways involved in the alcohol,crime link remain poorly understood. Argument and conclusion This paper reviews the literature relating to alcohol,offending links and draws some inferences about the role of alcohol use as a criminogenic need in offender rehabilitation. It is proposed that the bi-directional relationship between alcohol use and negative affective states is important in understanding the offence cycle, and that deficits in self-regulation not only characterize both alcohol misuse and negative affect but are also implicated in the offending behaviour itself. Copyright © 2003 Whurr Publishers Ltd. [source] USING RANDOM JUDGE ASSIGNMENTS TO ESTIMATE THE EFFECTS OF INCARCERATION AND PROBATION ON RECIDIVISM AMONG DRUG OFFENDERS,CRIMINOLOGY, Issue 2 2010DONALD P. GREEN Most prior studies of recidivism have used observational data to estimate the causal effect of imprisonment or probation on the probability that a convicted individual is rearrested after release. Few studies have taken advantage of the fact that, in some jurisdictions, defendants are assigned randomly to judges who vary in sentencing tendencies. This study investigates whether defendants who are assigned randomly to more punitive judges have different recidivism probabilities than defendants who are assigned to relatively lenient judges. We track 1,003 defendants charged with drug-related offenses who were assigned randomly to nine judicial calendars between June 1, 2002 and May 9, 2003. Judges on these calendars meted out sentences that varied substantially in terms of prison and probation time. We tracked defendants using court records across a 4-year period after the disposition of their cases to determine whether they subsequently were rearrested. Our results indicate that randomly assigned variations in prison and probation time have no detectable effect on rates of rearrest. The findings suggest that, at least among those facing drug-related charges, incarceration and supervision seem not to deter subsequent criminal behavior. [source] SOCIAL ECOLOGY AND RECIDIVISM: IMPLICATIONS FOR PRISONER REENTRY,CRIMINOLOGY, Issue 2 2008DANIEL P. MEARS Despite the marked increase in incarceration over the past 30 years and the fact that roughly two thirds of released offenders are rearrested within 3 years of release, we know little about how the social ecology of the areas to which offenders return may influence their recidivism or whether it disproportionately affects some groups more than others. Drawing on recent scholarship on prisoner reentry and macrolevel predictors of crime, this study examines a large sample of prisoners released to Florida communities to investigate how two dimensions of social ecology,resource deprivation and racial segregation,may independently, and in interaction with specific populations, influence recidivism. The findings suggest that ecology indeed is consequential for recidivism, and it differentially influences some groups more than others. We discuss these findings and their implications for theory, research, and policy. [source] THE LABELING OF CONVICTED FELONS AND ITS CONSEQUENCES FOR RECIDIVISM,CRIMINOLOGY, Issue 3 2007TED CHIRICOS Florida law allows judges to withhold adjudication of guilt for individuals who have been found guilty of a felony and are being sentenced to probation. Such individuals lose no civil rights and may lawfully assert they had not been convicted of a felony. Labeling theory would predict that the receipt of a felony label could increase the likelihood of recidivism. Reconviction data for 95,919 men and women who were either adjudicated or had adjudication withheld show that those formally labeled are significantly more likely to recidivate in 2 years than those who are not. Labeling effects are stronger for women, whites, and those who reach the age of 30 years without a prior conviction. Second-level indicators of county characteristics (e.g., crime rates or concentrated disadvantage) have no significant effect on the adjudication/recidivism relationship. [source] The quantitative risk of violent crime and criminal offending: a case-control study among the offspring of recidivistic Finnish homicide offendersACTA PSYCHIATRICA SCANDINAVICA, Issue 2002A. Putkonen Objective: To study if later risk of violent offending and criminality among high-risk children can be estimated quantitatively on the basis of parental crimes. Method:, The criminal and prison records of the offspring (N=11) of homicide recidivists (N=36) were compared with data from controls (N=220) who were matched for sex, domicile of birth and date of birth and death. Results:, The risk (odds ratio) was increased up to 24-fold for violent crimes (P=0.01), and up to 17-fold for criminality (P=0.0008) among the offspring of homicide recidivists. Conclusion:, The quantitative risk of a child for later violent offending and criminality can be estimated on the basis of parental homicide recidivism. This kind of method could be used to choose target groups for early preventive interventions, and to study the effectiveness of prevention. [source] Substance use and the prediction of young offender recidivismDRUG AND ALCOHOL REVIEW, Issue 4 2003ALDIS L. PUTNI Abstract The problem considered is whether self-reported substance use can be used in the estimation of recidivism risk among youths placed in secure care. The Secure Care Psychosocial Screening (SECAPS) and offending records of 447 youths admitted to detention centres in South Australia were examined. The target outcome was any new offending within 6 months of release. Use of a psychoactive substance at the time of committing the most recent offence was not a significant predictor of subsequent offending, nor was acknowledging having a problem with drug or alcohol use. In relation to the recent use of alcohol, marijuana, hallucinogens, sedatives/hypnotics, narcotics, stimulants and inhalants, only the use of alcohol and inhalants appeared to have significant relationships with recidivism. While the relationships were too small to permit using these items on their own to estimate re-offending risk, recent alcohol and inhalant use could be included as part of a broader recidivism risk assessment. [source] | |||||||||||||||||||