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Real GDP (real + gdp)

Distribution by Scientific Domains
Business, Economics, Finance and Accounting82%
Humanities and Social Sciences17%

Terms modified by Real GDP

  • real gdp growth
    		•

    Selected Abstracts

    A Coincident Index, Common Factors, and Monthly Real GDP,

    OXFORD BULLETIN OF ECONOMICS & STATISTICS, Issue 1 2010
    Roberto S. Mariano
    Abstract The Stock,Watson coincident index and its subsequent extensions assume a static linear one-factor model for the component indicators. This restrictive assumption is unnecessary if one defines a coincident index as an estimate of monthly real gross domestic products (GDP). This paper estimates Gaussian vector autoregression (VAR) and factor models for latent monthly real GDP and other coincident indicators using the observable mixed-frequency series. For maximum likelihood estimation of a VAR model, the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm helps in finding a good starting value for a quasi-Newton method. The smoothed estimate of latent monthly real GDP is a natural extension of the Stock,Watson coincident index. [source]

    GAUGING ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE UNDER CHANGING TERMS OF TRADE: REAL GROSS DOMESTIC INCOME OR REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT?

    ECONOMIC PAPERS: A JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECONOMICS AND POLICY, Issue 4 2008
    Dr WILLIAM COLEMAN
    The paper presents a simple theoretical case for the superiority of the notion of Real Gross Domestic Income to Gross Domestic Product. It is shown that, in a multi-period version of the familiar neoclassical model of a small, open economy, a temporary improvement in its terms of trade will increase welfare and RGDI, and produce a trade surplus in current prices; but will decrease real GDP, on account of it creating a trade deficit at constant prices. [source]

    Fixed versus Flexible Exchange Rates: Evidence from Developing Countries

    ECONOMICA, Issue 295 2007
    MATHIAS HOFFMANN
    This paper investigates the hypothesis that in a small open economy flexible exchange rates act as a ,shock absorber' and mitigate the effects of external shocks more effectively than fixed exchange rate regimes. Using a sample of 42 developing countries, the paper assesses whether the responses of real GDP, the trade balance and the real exchange rate to world output and world real interest rate shocks differ across exchange rate regimes. The paper shows that there are significant differences in the variability of macroeconomic aggregates under fixed and flexible exchange rate regimes. [source]

    International tourism and economic development in South Africa: a Granger causality test

    INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF TOURISM RESEARCH, Issue 2 2010
    Oludele A. Akinboade
    Abstract One of the major objectives of macroeconomic policies in many developing countries is sustained economic growth, and South Africa has been striving to achieve and maintain this in various ways. One of these is through international tourism. Although international tourism contributes to the growth of many economies, it is in turn, impacted by growth in many developed countries. Real gross domestic product (GDP), international tourism earnings, real effective exchange rate and exports were analysed within a multivariate vector auto regressive model using annual data covering 1980,2005. The main focus of this study therefore was to demonstrate the direction of causality between international tourism earnings and long-run economic growth of South Africa, among other variables, using Granger causality analysis. The result obtained showed a unidirectional causality running from international tourism earnings to real GDP, both in the short run and in the long run. The error correction mechanism carried out also supported this causality. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source]

    On detrending and cyclical asymmetry

    JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECONOMETRICS, Issue 3 2003
    Zacharias Psaradakis
    This paper considers the issue of testing for symmetry of the business cycle. It is demonstrated that findings of symmetry should be interpreted with caution since tests tend to have low power to detect asymmetries when applied to data that have been filtered to isolate their stationary business-cycle component. This implies that asymmetries are likely to be detected in practice only when they are particularly prominent. An empirical application examines the properties of the cyclical component of real GDP for the G7 countries. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source]

    Forecasting real-time data allowing for data revisions

    JOURNAL OF FORECASTING, Issue 6 2007
    Kosei Fukuda
    Abstract A modeling approach to real-time forecasting that allows for data revisions is shown. In this approach, an observed time series is decomposed into stochastic trend, data revision, and observation noise in real time. It is assumed that the stochastic trend is defined such that its first difference is specified as an AR model, and that the data revision, obtained only for the latest part of the time series, is also specified as an AR model. The proposed method is applicable to the data set with one vintage. Empirical applications to real-time forecasting of quarterly time series of US real GDP and its eight components are shown to illustrate the usefulness of the proposed approach.,,Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source]

    Nowcasting quarterly GDP growth in a monthly coincident indicator model

    JOURNAL OF FORECASTING, Issue 8 2005
    Luis C. NunesArticle first published online: 20 DEC 200
    Abstract This paper presents an extension of the Stock and Watson coincident indicator model that allows one to include variables available at different frequencies while taking care of missing observations at any time period. The proposed procedure provides estimates of the unobserved common coincident component, of the unobserved monthly series underlying any included quarterly indicator, and of any missing values in the series. An application to a coincident indicator model for the Portuguese economy is presented. We use monthly indicators from business surveys whose results are published with a very short delay. By using the available data for the monthly indicators and for quarterly real GDP, it becomes possible to produce simultaneously a monthly composite index of coincident indicators and an estimate of the latest quarter real GDP growth well ahead of the release of the first official figures. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Son, Ltd. [source]

    Foreign aid and long-run economic growth: empirical evidence for a panel of developing countries

    JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT, Issue 1 2006
    Georgios Karras
    Abstract This paper investigates the relationship between foreign aid and growth in per capita GDP using annual data from the 1960 to 1997 period for a sample of 71 aid-receiving developing economies. The results show that the effect of foreign aid on economic growth is positive, permanent, statistically significant, and sizable: raising foreign aid by $20 per person of the receiving country results in a permanent increase in the growth rate of real GDP per capita by approximately 0.16,per,cent. Using an alternative foreign-aid measure, a permanent increase in aid by 1,per,cent of the receiving economy's GDP permanently raises the per capita growth rate by 0.14 to 0.26,per,cent. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source]

    Inter-temporal and Inter-industry Effects of Population Ageing: A General Equilibrium Assessment for Canada

    LABOUR, Issue 4 2009
    Nabil Annabi
    In addition to the impact of slower labour force growth, the model captures the shift in sectoral composition of final demand of older individuals. The simulation results indicate that the growth in real GDP per capita could decline by nearly one percentage point between 2006 and 2050. The results also suggest that the equilibrium unemployment rate is likely to decline by more than two percentage points in the long run. However, the impact varies significantly at the occupational level. [source]

    A Coincident Index, Common Factors, and Monthly Real GDP,

    OXFORD BULLETIN OF ECONOMICS & STATISTICS, Issue 1 2010
    Roberto S. Mariano
    Abstract The Stock,Watson coincident index and its subsequent extensions assume a static linear one-factor model for the component indicators. This restrictive assumption is unnecessary if one defines a coincident index as an estimate of monthly real gross domestic products (GDP). This paper estimates Gaussian vector autoregression (VAR) and factor models for latent monthly real GDP and other coincident indicators using the observable mixed-frequency series. For maximum likelihood estimation of a VAR model, the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm helps in finding a good starting value for a quasi-Newton method. The smoothed estimate of latent monthly real GDP is a natural extension of the Stock,Watson coincident index. [source]

    ARE OUTPUT FLUCTUATIONS TRANSITORY?

    PACIFIC ECONOMIC REVIEW, Issue 4 2004
    NEW EVIDENCE FROM 24 CHINESE PROVINCES
    We examine this issue for 24 Chinese provinces using the recently developed Lagrange multiplier panel unit root test which allows for a structural break. Our main finding is that real gross domestic product (GDP) and real GDP per capita for Chinese provinces are stationary fluctuations around a deterministic trend. [source]

    Is Post-War Economic Growth Exponential?

    THE AUSTRALIAN ECONOMIC REVIEW, Issue 2 2006
    Sören Wibe
    In this article, we argue that there are strong reasons for using linear instead of exponential models when analysing post-war economic growth. Incorrect model specifications will lead to misinterpretations of the underlying economic reality and to erroneous economic forecasts. Our argument is based on an empirical investigation of real GDP per capita growth in 25 OECD countries (and three country aggregates) during the post-war period using the Box-Cox transformation method. The conclusion is that per capita growth is generally (more or less) linear (and definitely not exponential) for the level of economic development represented by these countries. Based on this we argue that analyses of growth should use linear instead of exponential models. This change of model could give new insights into problems connected with economic growth. [source]

    THE YEN-DOLLAR EXCHANGE RATE AND MALAYSIAN MACROECONOMIC DYNAMICS

    THE DEVELOPING ECONOMIES, Issue 3 2007
    Mansor H. IBRAHIM
    E30; F33; F40 This paper empirically assesses the effect of the yen-dollar exchange rate on selected macroeconomic variables, namely, real output, price level, and money supply, for Malaysia. The results, which are based on a vector autoregressive framework, suggest that variations in the yen-dollar rate can have significant influences on Malaysia's macroeconomic variables. More specifically, the yen-dollar depreciation leads to contraction in real GDP and money supply. These results are fairly robust to alternative model specifications. We believe that, apart from providing important insights into the interactions between the yen-dollar rate and domestic macroeconomic variables, our results contribute to the debate on choice of exchange rate regimes for Malaysia. [source]

    Assessing the Equilibrium Exchange Rate of the Malaysian Ringgit: A Comparison of Alternative Approaches

    ASIAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL, Issue 2 2008
    Isabell Koske
    F3; F31; F32 Drawing on the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate and the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate approaches, this paper assesses the equilibrium value of the real effective exchange rate of the Malaysian ringgit over the past 25 years. For 2005, when the Malaysian authorities exited from the peg with the US dollar, both models determine a slight undervaluation of the currency. Openness and real GDP per capita have been the main drivers of real exchange rate movements in the past, although non-tradable productivity, government consumption, and net foreign assets have also had a sizable impact. The paper also highlights the limitations of applying the two approaches in the context of emerging countries. [source]

    Co-Movement Towards a Currency or Monetary Union?

    AUSTRALIAN ECONOMIC PAPERS, Issue 3 2001
    An Empirical Study for New Zealand
    This paper analyses whether New Zealand would be ready to form a currency or monetary union with either Australia, the 11 EU countries that are members of the EMU, Japan, or the US, if the criteria that have been used by researchers for the EMU are applied. The analysis is an empirical study with data from the mid 1980s to 1998, using cointegration techniques to search for co-movement and convergence in key economic variables: interest rates, inflation rates, exchange rates, real GDP, and current-account/GDP ratios. [source]

    The Long Run Demand for Broad Money in Australia Subject to Regime Shifts

    AUSTRALIAN ECONOMIC PAPERS, Issue 2 2001
    Bruce Felmingham
    The goal is to determine if there is a stable Broad Money demand relationship for Australia. Previous studies have not reached a consensus on this important issue, partly because the time series techniques used do not accommodate structural breaks. A standard multivariate cointegration analysis is conducted on monthly data over the period 1976(3) to 1998(4). It reveals some evidence for the presence of cointegration since one cointegrating vector is found. This involves broad money, the spread between interest on broad money and on non-money assets and real GDP. The evidence of cointegration is again present when a structural break is found in the relationship using Gregory and Hansen (GH) methodology. This occurs in 1991 coinciding with a deep recession and policy induced, interest rate reductions. The income elasticity of demand exceeds one, reacts positively to the interest spread and negatively to inflation. [source]

    Climate change: a rational choice politics view,

    AUSTRALIAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL & RESOURCE ECONOMICS, Issue 3 2009
    Geoffrey Brennan
    Reduction in carbon dioxide emissions constitutes a global public good; and hence there will be strong incentives for countries to free ride in the provision of CO2 emission reductions. In the absence of more or less binding international agreements, we would expect carbon emissions to be seriously excessive, and climate change problems to be unsolvable. Against this obvious general point, we observe many countries acting unilaterally to introduce carbon emission policies. That is itself an explanatory puzzle, and a source of possible hope. Both aspects are matters of ,how politics works', i.e. ,public choice' problems are central. The object of this paper is to explain the phenomenon of unilateral policy action and to evaluate the grounds for ,hope'. One aspect of the explanation lies in the construction of policy instruments that redistribute strategically in favour of relevant interests. Another is the ,expressive' nature of voting and the expressive value of environmental concerns. Both elements , elite interests and popular (expressive) opinion , are quasi-constraints on politically viable policy. However, the nature of expressive concerns is such that significant reductions in real GDP are probably not sustainable in the long term , which suggests that much of the CO2 reduction action will be limited to modest reductions of a largely token character. In that sense, the grounds for hope are, although not non-existent, decidedly thin. [source]