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Real Economic Activity (real + economic_activity)
Selected AbstractsThe responsiveness of remittances to price of oil: the case of the GCCOPEC ENERGY REVIEW, Issue 3-4 2009George S. Naufal We investigate the responsiveness of remittances from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries to the changes in the price of crude oil. Most of the GCC countries rank in the top 20 remitting countries in the world. We find that oil price elasticity of remittances is around 0.4. While most studies have examined the impact of remittances on the real economic activities in the receiving countries, this study emphasises the impact of remittances on the remitting countries. We examine various policy implications with regard to macroeconomic shocks, monetary policy and fiscal policy of the GCC countries. [source] Total Factor Productivity and Monetary Policy: Evidence from Conditional Volatility,INTERNATIONAL FINANCE, Issue 2 2007Nicholas Apergis This paper empirically assesses whether monetary policy and its volatility affect real economic activity through their effect on the aggregate supply side of the macroeconomy. Analysts typically argue that monetary policy either does not affect the real economy (the classical dichotomy) or only affects the real economy in the short run through aggregate demand (new Keynesian or new classical theories). Real business cycle theorists try to explain the business cycle with supply-side productivity shocks. We provide some preliminary evidence about how monetary policy and its volatility affect the aggregate supply side of the macroeconomy through their effect on total factor productivity and its volatility. Total factor productivity provides an important measure of supply-side performance. The results show that monetary policy and its volatility exert a positive and statistically significant effect on the supply side of the macroeconomy. Moreover, the findings buttress the importance of reducing short-run swings in monetary policy variables as well as support the adoption of an optimal money supply rule. Our results also prove consistent with the effective role of monetary policy during the so-called ,Great Moderation' in US gross domestic product volatility beginning in the early 1980s. [source] The balance sheet channel of monetary policy: first empirical evidence for the euro area corporate bond marketINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FINANCE & ECONOMICS, Issue 3 2004Gabe de Bondt Abstract The balance sheet channel of monetary policy working through the euro area corporate bond market is important, as shown by empirical results based on different methods for the first two and a half years since the introduction of the euro. The external finance premium on corporate bonds reflects, among other factors, monetary policy and leads real economic activity in the euro area. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Asymmetry in the link between the yield spread and industrial production: threshold effects and forecastingJOURNAL OF FORECASTING, Issue 5 2004Ivan Paya Abstract We analyse the nonlinear behaviour of the information content in the spread for future real economic activity. The spread linearly predicts one-year-ahead real growth in nine industrial production sectors of the USA and four of the UK over the last 40 years. However, recent investigations on the spread,real activity relation have questioned both its linear nature and its time-invariant framework. Our in-sample empirical evidence suggests that the spread,real activity relationship exhibits asymmetries that allow for different predictive power of the spread when past spread values were above or below some threshold value. We then measure the out-of-sample forecast performance of the nonlinear model using predictive accuracy tests. The results show that significant improvement in forecasting accuracy, at least for one-step-ahead forecasts, can be obtained over the linear model. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] | ||||||||||