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Real Appreciation (real + appreciation)

Distribution by Scientific Domains

Business, Economics, Finance and Accounting	100%

Selected Abstracts

On the Political Economy of Temporary Stabilization Programs

ECONOMICS & POLITICS, Issue 2 2002
Laura Alfaro
This paper provides a political economy explanation for temporary exchange-rate-based stabilization programs by focusing on the distributional effects of real exchange-rate appreciation. I propose an economy in which agents are endowed with either tradable or non-tradable goods. Under a cash-in-advance assumption, a temporary reduction in the devaluation rate induces a consumption boom accompanied by real appreciation, which hurts the owners of tradable goods. The owners of non-tradables have to weigh two opposing effects: an increase in the present value of non-tradable goods wealth and a negative intertemporal substitution effect. For reasonable parameter values, owners of non-tradables are better off. [source]

Tracking the Euro's Progress

INTERNATIONAL FINANCE, Issue 3 2000
Menzie D. Chinn
The evolution of the euro since its inception has appeared inexplicable. This paper develops a monetary model of the euro/US dollar exchange rate to track the progress of the currency, both before and after Stage 3 EMU. The relationship between the exchange rate, money stocks, GDP, interest and inflation rates, and prices is identified. The observed patterns of behaviour during the 1990s are used to predict the euro's value up to mid-2000; a consistent finding is that the euro is over-predicted by 23,30%. This finding is robust to the use of alternative sample periods and alternative estimation methodologies, as long as each of the variables is treated as endogenous. This monetary model does not give much weight to factors such as productivity. However, the past evolution of European exchange rates suggests that productivity trends are indeed important. Some estimates suggest that an annual one percentage point in the intercountry differential in tradable-nontradable productivity causes a 0.85'1.7% real appreciation of a currency. [source]

Measuring the Effects of Exchange Rate Changes on Investment in Australian Manufacturing Industry*

THE ECONOMIC RECORD, Issue 2006
ROBYN SWIFT
This paper examines the relationship between exchange rates and investment in Australian manufacturing between 1988 and 2001. The effects of exchange rates on investment are found to vary positively with the export share of sales and negatively with the share of imported inputs into production, with lower price-over-cost mark-ups increasing the response. For Australian manufacturing, a 10 per cent real appreciation of the Australian dollar leads to an average 8.0 per cent decrease in total investment through the export share channel, and an average 3.8 per cent increase through the imported input share channel, with most of the response occurring through investment in equipment, plant and machinery. [source]

Investigating the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis in the transition: Do we understand what we see?

THE ECONOMICS OF TRANSITION, Issue 2 2002
A panel study
This paper studies the Balassa-Samuelson (B-S) effect in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia. We use time series and panel cointegration techniques and show that the B-S effect works reasonably well in the transition economies under study during the period from 1991:Q1 to 2001:Q2. However, we find, that productivity growth does not fully translate into price increases because of the construction of the CPI indexes. We therefore argue that productivity growth will not hinder meeting the Maastricht criterion on inflation in the medium term. In addition, the observed appreciation of the CPI-deflated real exchange rate is found to be systematically higher compared with the real appreciation the B-S effect could justify, especially in the cases of the Czech Republic and Slovakia. This can be partly explained by the trend appreciation of the tradable price-based real exchange rate, increases in non-tradable prices due to price liberalization and demand-side pressures and the evolution of the nominal exchange rate determined by the nature of the exchange rate regime and the magnitude of capital inflows. JEL classification: E31, F31, O11, P17, [source]