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Rate Risk (rate + risk)
Kinds of Rate Risk Selected AbstractsEXCHANGE RATE RISK AND EXPORT REVENUE IN TAIWANPACIFIC ECONOMIC REVIEW, Issue 2 2004Wen Shwo Fang Depreciation is found to stimulate export revenue in domestic currency, but the quantitative impact is small and any associated increase in exchange risk has a negative impact. Implications for economic policy are discussed. [source] EXPONENTIAL DURATION: A MORE ACCURATE ESTIMATION OF INTEREST RATE RISKTHE JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL RESEARCH, Issue 3 2005Miles Livingston Abstract We develop a new method to estimate the interest rate risk of an asset. This method is based on modified duration and is always more accurate than traditional estimation with modified duration. The estimates by this method are close to estimates using traditional duration plus convexity when interest rates decrease. If interest rates rise, investors will suffer larger value declines than predicted by traditional duration plus convexity estimate. The new method avoids this undesirable value overestimation and provides an estimate slightly below the true value. For risk-averse investors, overestimation of value declines is more desirable and conservative. [source] Financial Intermediaries and Interest Rate Risk: IIFINANCIAL MARKETS, INSTITUTIONS & INSTRUMENTS, Issue 5 2006Sotiris K. Staikouras The current work extends and updates the previous survey (Staikouras, 2003) by looking at other aspects of the financial institutions' yield sensitivity. The study starts with an extensive discussion of the origins of asset-liability management and the subsequent work to identify effective ways of measuring and managing interest rate risk. The discussion implicates both regulatory and market-based approaches along with any issues surrounding their applicability. The literature is enriched by recognizing that structural and regulatory shifts affect financial institutions in different ways depending on the size and nature of their activities. It is also noted that such shifts could change the bank's riskiness, and force banks to adjust their balance sheet size by altering their maturity intermediation function. Besides yield changes, market cycles are also held responsible for asymmetric effects on corporate values. Furthermore, nonstandard investigations are considered, where embedded options and basis risk are significant above and beyond the intermediary's rate sensitivity, while shocks to the slope of the yield curve is identified as a new variable. When the discount privilege is modeled as an option, it is shown that its value is incorporated in the equities of qualifying banks. Finally, volatility clustering is further established while constant relative risk aversion is not present in the U.S. market. Although some empirical findings may be quite mixed, there is a general consensus that all forms of systematic risk, risk premia, and the risk-return trade-off do exhibit some form of variability, not only over time but also across corporate sizes and segments. [source] How Should Macroeconomic Policy Respond to Foreign Financial Crises?,ECONOMIC PAPERS: A JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECONOMICS AND POLICY, Issue 2 2010Anthony J. Makin F31; F33; F41 This paper examines the impact of global financial crises on the Australian economy and how monetary and fiscal policy may be used to manage economic downturns that result. To do so, it presents a straightforward analytical framework incorporating financial wealth, exchange rate expectations, foreign demand and interest rate risk to analyse the key role played by the nominal exchange rate in insulating national income from the worst effects of foreign financial crises. In the event the economy is not fully insulated by exchange rate depreciation, it shows that, in principle, monetary policy is a superior instrument to fiscal stimulus for restoring aggregate demand to the full employment level. Since monetary policy is not handicapped by numerous problems that render fiscal stimulus less effective, it should normally be considered a sufficient instrument on its own. [source] Financial Intermediaries and Interest Rate Risk: IIFINANCIAL MARKETS, INSTITUTIONS & INSTRUMENTS, Issue 5 2006Sotiris K. Staikouras The current work extends and updates the previous survey (Staikouras, 2003) by looking at other aspects of the financial institutions' yield sensitivity. The study starts with an extensive discussion of the origins of asset-liability management and the subsequent work to identify effective ways of measuring and managing interest rate risk. The discussion implicates both regulatory and market-based approaches along with any issues surrounding their applicability. The literature is enriched by recognizing that structural and regulatory shifts affect financial institutions in different ways depending on the size and nature of their activities. It is also noted that such shifts could change the bank's riskiness, and force banks to adjust their balance sheet size by altering their maturity intermediation function. Besides yield changes, market cycles are also held responsible for asymmetric effects on corporate values. Furthermore, nonstandard investigations are considered, where embedded options and basis risk are significant above and beyond the intermediary's rate sensitivity, while shocks to the slope of the yield curve is identified as a new variable. When the discount privilege is modeled as an option, it is shown that its value is incorporated in the equities of qualifying banks. Finally, volatility clustering is further established while constant relative risk aversion is not present in the U.S. market. Although some empirical findings may be quite mixed, there is a general consensus that all forms of systematic risk, risk premia, and the risk-return trade-off do exhibit some form of variability, not only over time but also across corporate sizes and segments. [source] The Interest Rate Risk Exposure of Financial Intermediaries: A Review of the Theory and Empirical EvidenceFINANCIAL MARKETS, INSTITUTIONS & INSTRUMENTS, Issue 4 2003By Sotiris K. Staikouras The paper surveys current and previous research on financial institutions' interest rate risk exposure. The implications of such exposure are discussed and motivating insights are emphasized. Various theoretical frameworks and models are presented. For each one an overview of the studies and any relationship to each other is provided. In a cross-industry analysis, other idiosyncratic risk factors are considered and their importance is delineated. A number of empirical relations are established. More specifically, there is an inverse relationship between interest rate changes and common stock returns of financial institutions. The intermediaries' apparent yield sensitivity is mainly attributed to the duration gap inherent in their balance sheet structure. Furthermore, the aforesaid equity sensitivity due to other possible dynamics such as dividend yield, unanticipated inflation and regulatory lags is also considered. Changes in economic regimes have altered volatility in market yields with a subsequent effect, positive or negative, on financial intermediaries' equity returns. The issue of the risk-return compensation is further analyzed, and findings suggest that the interest rate risk is priced by capital markets. Finally, a few other issues are identified as avenues for future research. [source] International Portfolio Investment: Theory, Evidence, and Institutional FrameworkFINANCIAL MARKETS, INSTITUTIONS & INSTRUMENTS, Issue 3 2001Söhnke M. Bartram At first sight, the idea of investing internationally seems exciting and full of promise because of the many benefits of international portfolio investment. By investing in foreign securities, investors can participate in the growth of other countries, hedge their consumption basket against exchange rate risk, realize diversification effects and take advantage of market segmentation on a global scale. Even though these advantages might appear attractive, the risks of and constraints for international portfolio investment must not be overlooked. In an international context, financial investments are not only subject to currency risk and political risk, but there are many institutional constraints and barriers, significant among them a host of tax issues. These constraints, while being reduced by technology and policy, support the case for internationally segmented securities markets, with concomitant benefits for those who manage to overcome the barriers in an effective manner. [source] How Theories of Financial Intermediation and Corporate Risk-Management Influence Bank Risk-Taking BehaviorFINANCIAL MARKETS, INSTITUTIONS & INSTRUMENTS, Issue 5 2001Michael S. Pagano This paper examines the rationales for risk-taking and risk-management behavior from both a corporate finance and a banking perspective. After combining the theoretical insights from the corporate finance and banking literatures related to hedging and risk-taking, the paper reviews empirical tests based on these theories to determine which of these theories are best supported by the data. Managerial incentives are the most consistently supported rationale for describing how banks manage risk. In particular, moderate/high levels of equity ownership reduce bank risk while positive amounts of stock option grants increase bank risk-taking behavior. The review of empirical tests in the banking literature also suggests that financial intermediaries coordinate different aspects of risk (e.g., credit and interest rate risk) in order to maintain a certain level of total risk. The empirical results indicate hedgeable risks such as interest rate risk represent only one dimension of the risk-management problem. This implies empirical tests of the theories of corporate risk-management need to consider individual sub-components of total risk and the bank's ability to trade these risks in a competitive financial market. This finding is consistent with the reality that banks have non-zero expected financial distress costs and bank managers cannot fully diversify their bank-related personal investments. [source] Sources of Bank Interest Rate RiskFINANCIAL REVIEW, Issue 3 2002Donald R. Fraser We investigate bank stocks'sensitivity to changes in interest rates and the factors affecting this sensitivity. We focus on whether the exposure of commercial banks to interest rate risk is conditioned on certain balance sheet and income statement ratios. We find a significantly negative relation between bank stock returns and changes in interest rates over the period 1991,1996. We also find that bank characteristics measured from basic financial statement information explain bank stocks'sensitivity to interest rate changes. These results suggest that bank managers, analysts, and regulators can use this information to assess the relative risk exposure of banks. [source] The optimal timing of the transfer of hidden reserves in the German and Austrian tax systemsINTELLIGENT SYSTEMS IN ACCOUNTING, FINANCE & MANAGEMENT, Issue 2 2002Manfred FrühwirthArticle first published online: 16 DEC 200 The lower-of-cost-or-market principle implies that assets may be sold above book value, by which hidden reserves are disclosed. To avoid taxation of these hidden reserves, in German-speaking countries companies are allowed to transfer them to a newly purchased asset within a fixed time period. In this paper, the optimal timing of hidden reserves transfers is developed with special attention to the term structure of interest rates and interest rate risk, and using the replicating principle known from the field of finance. The paper presents one model under certainty and, as a generalization of this model, another model under interest rate risk. In both models, the criterion used for decision-making is the value of the right to transfer, which can be interpreted as the initial cost of a replicating/hedging strategy for tax payments saved/incurred. In the model under certainty, the net present value concept is used to derive the value of the right to transfer. The procedure used in the model under interest rate risk is a combination of flexible planning and the no-arbitrage approach common in derivatives pricing. It is shown that the right to transfer hidden reserves with flexible timing is equivalent to an American-style exchange option. In addition, the impact of term-structure volatility on the value of the right to transfer is analyzed. The technique presented in this paper can also be used to solve other timing problems resulting from trade-offs between early and late tax payments/tax benefits. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Does Risk Management Add Value?JOURNAL OF APPLIED CORPORATE FINANCE, Issue 3 2005A Survey of the Evidence The fact that 92% of the world's 500 largest companies recently reported using derivatives suggests that corporate managers believe financial risk management can increase shareholder value. Surveys of finance academics indicate that they too believe that corporate risk management is, on the whole, a valueadding activity. This article provides an overview of almost 30 years of broadbased, stock-market-oriented academic studies that address one or more of the following questions: ,Are interest rate, exchange rate, and commodity price risks reflected in stock price movements? ,Is volatility in corporate earnings and cash flows related in a systematic way to corporate market values? ,Is the corporate use of derivatives associated with reduced risk and higher market values? The answer to the first question, at least in the case of financial institutions and interest rate risk, is a definite yes; all studies with this focus find that the stock returns of financial firms are clearly sensitive to interest rate changes. The stock returns of industrial companies exhibit no pronounced interest rate exposure (at least as a group), but industrial firms with significant cross-border revenues and costs show considerable sensitivity to exchange rates (although such sensitivity actually appears to be reduced by the size and geographical diversity of the largest multinationals). What's more, the corporate use of derivatives to hedge interest rate and currency exposures appears to be associated with lower sensitivity of stock returns to interest rate and FX changes. But does the resulting reduction in price sensitivity affect value,and, if so, how? Consistent with a widely cited theory that risk management increases value by limiting the corporate "underinvestment problem," a number of studies show a correlation between lower cash flow volatility and higher corporate investment and market values. The article also cites a small but growing group of studies that show a strong positive association between derivatives use and stock price performance (typically measured using price-to-book ratios). But perhaps the nearest the research comes to establishing causality are two studies,one of companies that hedge FX exposures and another of airlines' hedging of fuel costs,that show that, in industries where hedging with derivatives is common, companies that hedge outperform companies that don't. [source] The impact of multiple volatilities on import demand for U.S. commodities: the case of soybeansAGRIBUSINESS : AN INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL, Issue 2 2010Qiang Zhang The focus of this study is the effects of exchange rate, commodity price, and ocean freight cost risks on import demand with forward-futures markets. The case of U.S. and Brazilian soybeans is analyzed empirically using monthly data. A two-way error component two-stage least squares procedure for panel data is used for the analysis. Risk for these three effects is measured by the moving average of the standard deviation. Major soybean importers are sensitive to exchange rate risk. Importing countries in general are not sensitive to soybean price and ocean shipping cost risks for Brazilian or U.S. soybeans. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. [source] Multiple Ratings Model of Defaultable Term StructureMATHEMATICAL FINANCE, Issue 2 2000Tomasz R. Bielecki A new approach to modeling credit risk, to valuation of defaultable debt and to pricing of credit derivatives is developed. Our approach, based on the Heath, Jarrow, and Morton (1992) methodology, uses the available information about the credit spreads combined with the available information about the recovery rates to model the intensities of credit migrations between various credit ratings classes. This results in a conditionally Markovian model of credit risk. We then combine our model of credit risk with a model of interest rate risk in order to derive an arbitrage-free model of defaultable bonds. As expected, the market price processes of interest rate risk and credit risk provide a natural connection between the actual and the martingale probabilities. [source] Foreign Currency Exposure in the Department of DefensePUBLIC BUDGETING AND FINANCE, Issue 4 2000Gerald M. Groshek The Department of Defense (DoD) incurs numerous costs denominated in foreign currencies in fulfilling U.S. alliance and security agreements overseas. Between fiscal years 1993 and 1997, the DoD expended over $10.4 billion in foreign currencies to operate and maintain its overseas facilities, and estimates for fiscal years 1998 and 1999 are $5.4 billion. In line with the government's general, risk-neutral approach to financial risk, the DoD makes no attempt to control its foreign exchange exposure against currency fluctuations. As such, there are inevitable differences in amounts budgeted to fund the DoD's overseas operations and amounts subsequently required to pay them. This paper examines the implications of DoD foreign exchange rate policy and applies an alternative approach to foreign exchange rate risk,one more in line with private-sector practices and overall efforts to reform government operations. The results indicate that forward contracts would inject greater certainty into the budgeting and administration of these programs and might release limited defense funds for use elsewhere. [source] EXPONENTIAL DURATION: A MORE ACCURATE ESTIMATION OF INTEREST RATE RISKTHE JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL RESEARCH, Issue 3 2005Miles Livingston Abstract We develop a new method to estimate the interest rate risk of an asset. This method is based on modified duration and is always more accurate than traditional estimation with modified duration. The estimates by this method are close to estimates using traditional duration plus convexity when interest rates decrease. If interest rates rise, investors will suffer larger value declines than predicted by traditional duration plus convexity estimate. The new method avoids this undesirable value overestimation and provides an estimate slightly below the true value. For risk-averse investors, overestimation of value declines is more desirable and conservative. [source] Pricing and hedging of quanto range accrual notes under Gaussian HJM with cross-currency Levy processesTHE JOURNAL OF FUTURES MARKETS, Issue 10 2009Szu-Lang Liao This study analyzes the pricing and hedging problems for quanto range accrual notes (RANs) under the Heath-Jarrow-Morton (HJM) framework with Levy processes for instantaneous domestic and foreign forward interest rates. We consider the effects of jump risk on both interest rates and exchange rates in the pricing of the notes. We first derive the pricing formula for quanto double interest rate digital options and quanto contingent payoff options; then we apply the method proposed by Turnbull (Journal of Derivatives, 1995, 3, 92,101) to replicate the quanto RAN by a combination of the quanto double interest rate digital options and the quanto contingent payoff options. Using the pricing formulas derived in this study, we obtain the hedging position for each issue of quanto RANs. In addition, by simulation and assuming the jump risk to follow a compound Poisson process, we further analyze the effects of jump risk and exchange rate risk on the coupons receivable in holding a RAN. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 29:973,998, 2009 [source] Asymmetric information and credit quality: Evidence from synthetic fixed-rate financingTHE JOURNAL OF FUTURES MARKETS, Issue 6 2006Betty J. Simkins In this article the usage of synthetic fixed-rate financing (SFRF) with interest rate swaps (i.e., borrowing short-term and using swaps to hedge interest rate risk, instead of selecting conventional fixed-rate financing) by Fortune 500 and S&P 500 nonfinancial firms is examined over the period 1991 through 1995. Credit ratings, debt issuance, and debt maturities of these firms are monitored through 1999. Strong evidence is found supporting the asymmetric information theory of swap usage as described by S. Titman (1992), even after controlling for industry, credit quality, size effects, and the simultaneity of the capital structure and the interest rate swap usage decision. Consistent with theoretical predictions, SFRF firms are more likely to undergo credit quality upgrades. When limiting the sample to firms where asymmetric information costs are potentially the greatest, the results are even stronger. These findings are important because they document that swaps serve a highly valuable service for firms subject to information asymmetries. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 26:595,626, 2006 [source] How Different Conceptions of Risk Are Used in the Organ Market DebateAMERICAN JOURNAL OF TRANSPLANTATION, Issue 4 2010A. Aronsohn The success of kidney and liver transplantation is hindered by a shortage of organs available for transplantation. Although currently illegal in nearly all parts of the world, a living ,donor' or ,vendor' kidney market has been proposed as a means to reduce or even end this shortage. Physician members of the American Society of Transplantation, the American Society of Transplant Surgeons and the American Association for the Study of Liver Disease were surveyed regarding organ markets for both living kidney and living liver transplantation. The survey queried respondents about their attitudes toward directed living donation, nondirected living donation, the potential legalization of living donor organ markets and the reasons for their support or opposition to organ markets. Partial or completed surveys were returned by 346 of 697 eligible respondents (50%). While virtually all supported or strongly supported directed living donation (98% and 95% for kidney and liver lobes, respectively), the vast majority disagreed or strongly disagreed with the legalization of living donor organ markets (80% for kidneys and 90% for liver lobes). Both those who support and those who oppose a legalized living donor organ market rate risk to the donor among the most important factors to justify their position. [source] Convergence within the EU: Evidence from Interest RatesECONOMIC NOTES, Issue 2 2000Teresa Corzo Santamaria The economic and political changes which are taking place in Europe affect interest rates. This paper develops a two-factor model for the term structure of interest rates specially designed to apply to EMU countries. In addition to the participant country's short-term interest rate, we include as a second factor a ,European' short-term interest rate. We assume that the ,European' rate follows a mean reverting process. The domestic interest rate also follows a mean reverting process, but its convergence is to a stochastic mean which is identified with the ,European' rate. Closed-form solutions for prices of zero coupon discount bonds and options on these bonds are provided. A special feature of the model is that both the domestic and the European interest rate risks are priced. We also discuss an empirical estimation focusing on the Spanish bond market. The ,European' rate is proxied by the ecu's interest rate. Through a comparison of the performance of our convergence model with a Vasicek model for the Spanish bond market, we show that our model provides a better fit both in-sample and out-of sample and that the difference in performance between the models is greater the longer the maturity of the bonds. (J.E.L.: E43, C510). [source] Capital Market Integration in Euroland: The Role of BanksGERMAN ECONOMIC REVIEW, Issue 4 2000Claudia M. Buch The introduction of the euro marks a milestone in the process of European financial market integration. This paper analyzes the implications of the euro for cross-border banking activities. A portfolio model is used which captures the role of banks as providers of informational and of risk-diversification services. By eliminating exchange rate risks, the euro enhances the incentives of banks to expand within Euroland. Yet, while the currency bias in bank portfolios will be eliminated, the home bias will remain. Implications of market integration for the risk-taking and the monitoring of banks are not clear-cut. [source] Exchange Rates and Cash Flows in Differentiated Product Industries: A Simulation ApproachTHE JOURNAL OF FINANCE, Issue 5 2007RICHARD FRIBERG ABSTRACT How do exchange rate changes impact firms' cash flows? We extend a simulation method developed in industrial organization to answer this question. We use prices, quantities, and product characteristics for differentiated products, coupled with a discrete choice framework and an assumption of price competition, to estimate marginal costs for all producers. Using a Monte Carlo approach we generate counterfactual prices and profits for different levels of exchange rates. We illustrate the method using the market for bottled water. Our results stress that even in a relatively simple market such as this one, different brands face very different exchange rate risks. [source] Risk Management Lessons from ,Knock-in Knock-out' Option Disaster,ASIA-PACIFIC JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL STUDIES, Issue 1 2010Jaeuk Khil G14; G01 Abstract Currency knock-in knock-out (KIKO) options had been widely used for hedging exchange rate risks in Korean financial markets. However, as the Korean won moved in an unexpected direction during the global financial crisis period of 2007 and 2008, the hedging instruments incurred huge losses to the option holders. In this paper, we analyze the event from the viewpoint of risk assessment and management. We find that, first, if the option holders had assessed the risk levels with and without the KIKO options by using standard risk measures like value-at-risk or conditional value-at-risk, then many KIKO option contracts would not have been justifiable from the beginning. Second, having a proper view on the exchange rate dynamics turned out to be crucial for risk assessment and management. If the companies had a proper view instead of a myopic view on the exchange rate movement, then the KIKO options might not have been chosen. Finally, ,hedge-and-forget' behavior proved to be very costly and reckless. If the companies had continuously assessed and managed their risks, then the losses from the KIKO options could have been significantly mitigated. Some relevant pricing issues are also investigated. We find that most KIKO option contracts under study might not be significantly overpriced. However, potential impacts of the possible mispricing could be considerable in some cases. Nonetheless, the risk management failure proved to be more important for the KIKO option losses than the possible mispricing problem. [source] Exchange Rate Instability: Japan's Micro,Macro Experiences and Implications for ChinaCHINA AND WORLD ECONOMY, Issue 2 2006Mamoru Ishida E65; F23; F31 Abstract Since 1985, the yen-dollar exchange rates repeatedly fluctuated and climbed to a level that could not be justified by economic fundamentals. The impacts on the Japanese economy were serious and far-reaching. Since 21 July 2005, China has been moving toward a more flexible exchange rate regime. Keeping RMB exchange rates basically stable and providing Chinese industries with means to hedge exchange rate risks are essential for China's sound economic development. Edited by Zhinan Zhang [source] | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||