Random Expectation (random + expectation)

Distribution by Scientific Domains


Selected Abstracts


A new cost-distance model for human accessibility and an evaluation of accessibility bias in permanent vegetation plots in Great Smoky Mountains National Park, USA

JOURNAL OF VEGETATION SCIENCE, Issue 6 2009
R. Todd Jobe
Abstract Question: Can a new cost-distance model help us to evaluate the potential for accessibility bias in ecological observations? How much accessibility bias is present in the vegetation monitoring plots accumulated over the last three decades in Great Smoky Mountains National Park? Location: Great Smoky Mountains National Park, North Carolina and Tennessee, USA. Methods: Distance, slope, stream crossings, and vegetation density were incorporated into a least-cost model of energetic expenditure for human access to locations. Results: Estimated round-trip energy costs for the park ranged from 0 to 1.62 × 105 J kg,1. The estimated round-trip energetic expenditure for the surveys ranged from 53 to 1.51 × 105 J kg,1. Their distribution was more accessible than the random expectation. Ten (17%) of the vegetation types in the park are significantly under-sampled relative to their area, and 16 (29%) are over-sampled. Plots in 18 of the 40 vegetation types exhibited a significant positive correlation with accessibility. Conclusions: The least-cost model is an improvement over previous attempts to quantify accessibility. The bias in plot locations suggests using a least-cost model to test for bias in cases in which human accessibility is confounded with other sources of ecosystem variation. [source]


Forest Elephants: Tree Planters of the Congo

BIOTROPICA, Issue 4 2009
Stephen Blake
ABSTRACT The abundance of large vertebrates is rapidly declining, particularly in the tropics where over-hunting has left many forests structurally intact but devoid of large animals. An urgent question then, is whether these ,empty' forests can sustain their biodiversity without large vertebrates. Here we examine the role of forest elephant (Loxodonta africana cyclotis) seed dispersal in maintaining the community structure of trees in the Ndoki Forest, northern Congo. Analysis of 855 elephant dung piles suggested that forest elephants disperse more intact seeds than any other species or genus of large vertebrate in African forests, while GPS telemetry data showed that forest elephants regularly disperse seeds over unprecedented distances compared to other dispersers. Our analysis of the spatial distribution of trees from a sample of 5667 individuals showed that dispersal mechanism was tightly correlated with the scale of spatial aggregation. Increasing amounts of elephant seed dispersal was associated with decreasing aggregation. At distances of<200 m, trees whose seeds are dispersed only by elephants were less aggregated than the random expectation, suggesting Janzen,Connell effects on seed/seedling mortality. At the landscape scale, seed dispersal mode predicted the rate at which local tree community similarity decayed in space. Our results suggest that the loss of forest elephants (and other large-bodied dispersers) may lead to a wave of recruitment failure among animal-dispersed tree species, and favor regeneration of the species-poor abiotically dispersed guild of trees. [source]


An Experimental Investigation of Landscape Resistance of Forest versus Old-Field Habitats to Emigrating Juvenile Amphibians

CONSERVATION BIOLOGY, Issue 5 2002
Betsie B. Rothermel
Larval amphibians,spotted salamander (Ambystoma maculatum), small-mouthed salamander (A. texanum), and American toad ( Bufo americanus ),were added to artificial pools in four dispersal arrays on forest edges. Each array consisted of a pool surrounded by a circular drift fence with pitfall traps and two 2.5 × 50 m enclosures (runs) extending into forest and old-field habitat. Juveniles captured at the circular fences were individually marked and released into either field or forest runs. We determined initial distance, initial rate, total distance, and net distance moved by juveniles in the field versus forest from recaptures in the runs. We also conducted 24-hour dehydration trials to compare the rates of evaporative water loss by spotted and small-mouthed salamanders in field and forest. Initial orientation of spotted salamanders and toads was significantly biased toward forest. Orientation of small-mouthed salamanders did not differ significantly from random expectations. The avoidance of open-canopy habitat by juvenile American toads in particular indicates that predictions of dispersal behavior based on adult habitat use may be misleading. Spotted salamanders moved almost four times farther and toads more than three times farther into the forest than into the field, and recapture rates of both species were much lower in the field. We attribute the lower recapture rates and shorter distances moved in the field to higher mortality due to desiccation or an abundance of predators. Juvenile spotted and small-mouthed salamanders experienced greater evaporative water loss in the field. Our data on movement behavior and dehydration rates suggest that old-field habitats offer greater landscape resistance to dispersing juveniles of some species. Thus, forest fragmentation is likely to reduce dispersal rates between local populations of these three species, with potentially negative consequences for population persistence in altered landscapes. Resumen: Utilizamos un enfoque experimental para investigar los efectos de la composición del paisaje sobre el éxito inicial de dispersión de anfibios juveniles. Colcamos larvas de anfibios (salamandras manchadas [Ambystoma maculatum] y A. texanum y sapo americano [Bufo americanus] ) en estanques artificiales en cuatro secuencias de dispersión en bordes de bosque. Cada secuencia consistió de un estanque rodeado por un cerco circular con trampas de fosa y dos encierros (corridas) de 2.5 × 50 m que se extendían hacia el hábitat de bosque y de campo viejo. Los juveniles capturados en los cercos circulares fueron marcados individualmente y liberados en las corridas de bosque o de campo. A partir de recapturas en las corridas, determinamos la distancia inicial, la tasa inicial, las distancia total y la distancia neta recorrida por juveniles en el campo versus el bosque. También realizamos pruebas de deshidratación de 24 horas para comparar las tasas de pérdida de agua por evaporación en salamandras en el campo y el bosque. La orientación inicial de Ambystoma maculatum y Bufo americanus estuvo significativamente sesgada hacia el bosque. La orientación inicial de A. texanum no fue significativamente diferente de las expectativas aleatorias. La evasión del hábitat abierto en particular por juveniles de sapo americano indica que las predicciones del comportamiento de dispersión basadas en el uso del hábitat por adultos pueden llevar a conclusiones erróneas. Las salamandras manchadas se movieron cuatro veces mas lejos y los sapos más de tres veces más lejos dentro del bosque que dentro del campo, y las tasas de recaptura de ambas especies fueron mucho menores en el campo. Atribuimos las bajas tasas de recaptura y las distancias menores a la mayor mortalidad debido a la desecación o a la abundancia de depredadores. Los juveniles de las dos especies de salamandras experimentaron mayor pérdida de agua por evaporación en los campos. Nuestros datos del comportamiento de movimiento y las tasas de deshidratación sugieren que los hábitats de campo viejo ofrecen mayor resistencia de paisaje para los juveniles dispersantes de algunas especies. Por tanto, es probable que la fragmentación de bosques reduce las tasas de dispersión entre poblaciones locales de estas tres especies, con consecuencias potencialmente negativas para la persistencia de la población en paisajes alterados. [source]


Spatial pattern of downed logs and wood-decaying fungi in an old-growth Picea abies forest

JOURNAL OF VEGETATION SCIENCE, Issue 5 2001
Mattias Edman
See section on Field methods Abstract. Since many wood-living forest species are influenced by the dynamics of coarse woody debris (CWD), information about the spatial pattern of CWD under natural conditions is essential to understand species distributions. In this study we examined the spatial pattern of downed logs and wood-decaying fungi in an old-growth boreal Picea abies forest in northwestern Sweden that is governed by gap-phase dynamics. The spatial pattern of wood-decaying fungi was studied to draw conclusions about species dispersal abilities. A total of 684 logs with a diameter > 10 cm were mapped and analysed with Ripley's K -function. The distribution of all logs taken together displayed a significant aggregated pattern up to 45 m. The different decay stages also deviated from random expectations. Fairly fresh logs and logs in the middle decay stage were clumped up to about 25 and 35 m respectively, and late decayed logs aggregated up to 95 m. Logs with diameters from 10,29 cm were aggregated up to 25 m, whereas logs ,30 cm diameter were randomly distributed. The result suggests that gap-dynamics do have an impact on the spatial pattern of the CWD, creating fine-scale clumping. The random distribution of large logs may result from the slightly regular spacing of large living trees. The spatial patterns of 16 species (n > 20) of wood-decaying fungi were analysed with Ripley's K -function. Three patterns were aggregated, for Gloeophyllum sepiarium, Coniophora olivacea and Vesiculomyces citrinus. These results indicate that the distribution of most species at the stand level is generally not influenced by dispersal limitations. [source]