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Rainy Days (rainy + day)
Selected AbstractsState Rainy Day Funds and Fiscal Crises: Rainy Day Funds and the 1990,1991 Recession RevisitedPUBLIC BUDGETING AND FINANCE, Issue 1 2002James W. Douglas The recession of the early 1980s prompted many states to establish budget stabilization (rainy day) funds. Initial examinations of rainy day funds find a limited impact by the funds in alleviating fiscal stress. In this article, we propose an enhanced model of rainy day fund impact. Using data from 48 states for the 1990,1991 recession, our analysis indicates that the presence of a number of structural factors and the maintenance of generally large balances in other funds entering recession helps to alleviate fiscal stress when a state's economy is in recession. [source] Wy are the transition paths in China and Eastern Europe different?THE ECONOMICS OF TRANSITION, Issue 1 2003A political economy perspective Abstract The purpose of this paper is to provide a framework linking communist regime collapse and privatizing economic reforms. The framework permits us to explain why certain communist regimes lost their monopoly of political power while others have not. We show that the essential difference between those communist regimes which survived economic reform and those which did not, lies in the nature of the privatization reform introduced by the communist leadership. The privatization that we call ,Market-Leninist', was implemented in China and Vietnam while the second type of privatization, termed ,Embezzlement for a rainy day' was the type of privatization implemented in Eastern Europe. We show, in the context of a game between rulers and the population, that the size of the repressive apparatus is the key element determining the type of privatization chosen by the rulers. JEL classification: P2, P3. [source] Improving interpolation of daily precipitation for hydrologic modelling: spatial patterns of preferred interpolatorsHYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 23 2009Daniel Kurtzman Abstract Detailed hydrologic models require high-resolution spatial and temporal data. This study aims at improving the spatial interpolation of daily precipitation for hydrologic models. Different parameterizations of (1) inverse distance weighted (IDW) interpolation and (2) A local weighted regression (LWR) method in which elevation is the explanatory variable and distance, elevation difference and aspect difference are weighting factors, were tested at a hilly setting in the eastern Mediterranean, using 16 years of daily data. The preferred IDW interpolation was better than the preferred LWR scheme in 27 out of 31 validation gauges (VGs) according to a criteria aimed at minimizing the absolute bias and the mean absolute error (MAE) of estimations. The choice of the IDW exponent was found to be more important than the choice of whether or not to use elevation as explanatory data in most cases. The rank of preferred interpolators in a specific VG was found to be a stable local characteristic if a sufficient number of rainy days are averaged. A spatial pattern of the preferred IDW exponents was revealed. Large exponents (3) were more effective closer to the coast line whereas small exponents (1) were more effective closer to the mountain crest. This spatial variability is consistent with previous studies that showed smaller correlation distances of daily precipitation closer to the Mediterranean coast than at the hills, attributed mainly to relatively warm sea-surface temperature resulting in more cellular convection coastward. These results suggest that spatially variable, physically based parameterization of the distance weighting function can improve the spatial interpolation of daily precipitation. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Early findings in comparison of AMSR-E/Aqua L3 global snow water equivalent EASE-grids data with in situ observations for Eastern TurkeyHYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 15 2008A. Emre Tekeli Abstract Microwave remote sensing (RS) enables the direct determination of snow water equivalent (SWE), which is an important snow parameter for water resources management. The accuracy of remotely sensed SWE values has always been a concern. Previous studies evaluated global SWE monitoring. However, regional effects such as vegetation, snow grain size, snow density and local meteorological conditions may lead to uncertainties. Thus, regional validation studies that quantify and help to understand these uncertainties and possible error sources are important both for algorithm development and accurate SWE computation. In this study, data of Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E)/Aqua level 3 global SWE Equal Area Scalable Earth (EASE) Grids are compared with ground measurements for 2002,2003 winter period for Eastern Turkey, which includes the headwaters of the Euphrates and Tigris rivers and is fed largely from snowmelt. Thus, accurate determination of SWE is important in optimum resource management for both Turkey and downstream nations. Analyses indicated that AMSR-E generally overestimated SWE in early season. As winter progressed, higher in situ SWE values with respect to AMSR-E were observed which led to underestimation by AMSR-E. The differences between AMSR-E and in situ SWE varied between , 218 and 93 mm. Use of in situ snow densities lead the correlation coefficient between AMSR-E and in situ SWE to increase from 0·10 to 0·32. Underestimation of SWE by AMSR-E occurs after some warm periods, while overestimations occur following refreezing. On rainy days or some days after precipitation within the warm periods, zero AMSR-E SWE values are observed. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Seasonal changes in radiation and evaporation implied from the diurnal distribution of rainfall in the Lower MekongHYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 9 2008Kumiko Tsujimoto Abstract Solar radiation is an important input to many empirical equations for estimating evaporation, which in turn plays an important role in the hydrologic cycle in the Lower Mekong River Basin due to the high evaporation potential of the tropical monsoon climate. Few proper meteorological data exist for the Lower Mekong River Basin, however, and the region's meteorological conditions, including seasonal variation in radiation and evaporation, have not been clarified. In this study, ground-based hourly hydrometeorological data were collected at three observation stations located in different land-use types (urban district, paddy area, and lake) in the Lower Mekong River Basin. These data were analysed to investigate the seasonal variation in radiation and evaporation related to the diurnal distribution of rainfall. Contrary to common expectations, our results showed that rainy and dry seasons had nearly the same amount of solar radiation in the Lower Mekong River Basin because (1) rainy seasons had a relatively larger amount of extraterrestrial radiation; (2) no rain fell on nearly half of the days during rainy seasons; and (3) the amount of solar radiation on rainy days reached 88% of that on non-rainy days. The third factor was attributed to the high frequency of evening rainfall. Furthermore, this rainfall,radiation relationship meant that rainy seasons had a large amount of net radiation due to the low reduction ratio of solar radiation and an increase in long-wave incoming radiation. Accordingly, rainy seasons had a high evaporation potential. Moreover, for the rain-fed rice paddies that prevail in this region, sufficient radiation during the rainy season would be a great advantage for rice growing. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Harvesting haemopoietic stem cells for future use: rainy days, real or imagined?INTERNAL MEDICINE JOURNAL, Issue 4 2008J. Szer No abstract is available for this article. [source] Statistical downscaling model based on canonical correlation analysis for winter extreme precipitation events in the Emilia-Romagna regionINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 4 2008A. Busuioc Abstract Optimum statistical downscaling models for three winter precipitation indices in the Emilia-Romagna region, especially related to extreme events, were investigated. For this purpose, the indices referring to the number of events exceeding the long-term 90 percentile of rainy days, simple daily intensity and maximum number of consecutive dry days were calculated as spatial averages over homogeneous sub-regions identified by the cluster analysis. The statistical downscaling model (SDM) based on the canonical correlation analysis (CCA) was used as downscaling procedure. The CCA was also used to understand the large-/regional-scale mechanisms controlling precipitation variability across the analysed area, especially with respect to extreme events. The dynamic (mean sea-level pressure-SLP) and thermodynamic (potential instability-,Q and specific humidity-SH) variables were considered as predictors (either individually or together). The large-scale SLP can be considered a good predictor for all sub-regions in the dry index case and for two sub-regions in the case of the other two indices, showing the importance of dynamical forcing in these cases. Potential instability is the best predictor for the highest mountain region in the case of heavy rainfall frequency, when it can be considered as a single predictor. The combination of dynamic and thermodynamic predictors improves the SDM's skill for all sub-regions in the dry index case and for some sub-regions in the simple daily intensity index case. The selected SDMs are stable in time only in terms of correlation coefficient for all sub-regions for which they are skilful and only for some sub-regions in terms of explained variance. The reasons are linked to the changes in the atmospheric circulation patterns influencing the local rainfall variability in Emilia-Romagna as well as the differences in temporal variability over some sub-regions and sub-intervals. It was concluded that the average skill over an ensemble of the most skilful and stable SDMs for each region/sub-interval gives more consistent results. Copyright © 2007 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Droughts and extreme events in regional daily Italian precipitation seriesINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 5 2002Michele Brunetti Abstract This paper proposes a methodology to study daily precipitation series that include a significant proportion of missing data, without resorting to completion methods based on randomly generated numbers. It is applied to a data set consisting of 75 station records (1951,2000) covering the Italian territory. They are clustered by principal component analysis into six regions: the north-west, the northern part of the north-east, the southern part of the north-east, the centre, the south and the islands (i.e. Sicily and Sardinia). Complete annual and seasonal regional average series are obtained from the incomplete station records, and analysed for droughts and extreme precipitation events. Droughts are identified by means of two indicators: the longest dry period and the proportion of dry days. The most remarkable result is a systematic increase in winter droughts over all of Italy, especially in the north, due mainly to the very dry 1987,93 period. Extreme events are analysed considering 5 day regional totals. In this case, however, an attempt to search for a statistically significant trend is not successful because of the scarcity of events in such a short period. The reliability of the regional series is checked by computing some basic statistics concerning total precipitation, rainy days and precipitation intensity and comparing them with the same statistics computed for regional series obtained by station records completed with methods based on random number generators. Copyright © 2002 Royal Meteorological Society. [source] A ground-level ozone forecasting model for Santiago, ChileJOURNAL OF FORECASTING, Issue 6 2002Héctor Jorquera Abstract A physically based model for ground-level ozone forecasting is evaluated for Santiago, Chile. The model predicts the daily peak ozone concentration, with the daily rise of air temperature as input variable; weekends and rainy days appear as interventions. This model was used to analyse historical data, using the Linear Transfer Function/Finite Impulse Response (LTF/FIR) formalism; the Simultaneous Transfer Function (STF) method was used to analyse several monitoring stations together. Model evaluation showed a good forecasting performance across stations,for low and high ozone impacts,with power of detection (POD) values between 70 and 100%, Heidke's Skill Scores between 40% and 70% and low false alarm rates (FAR). The model consistently outperforms a pure persistence forecast. Model performance was not sensitive to different implementation options. The model performance degrades for two- and three-days ahead forecast, but is still acceptable for the purpose of developing an environmental warning system at Santiago. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Importance of sustainable management of percolation lakes in semiarid basaltic terrain in western IndiaLAKES & RESERVOIRS: RESEARCH AND MANAGEMENT, Issue 4 2001Shrikant D. Limaye Abstract Sustainable management of percolation lakes or percolation tanks is closely related to the survival of approximately 15 million farmers and an equal number of cattle living in the semiarid basaltic plateau of western India. Here, the monsoonal rains are restricted to a few rainy days between June and September. It is therefore necessary to harvest the monsoon runoff into small percolation lakes in mini-catchments by constructing earthen bunds on small streams and allowing the stored water in the lakes to percolate and recharge the groundwater body. The residence time of water in the mini-catchments is thus increased and it is possible for the farmers to dig wells and irrigate the crops in their small farm plots. The efficiency of the percolation lakes is hampered by silt that accumulates in the lake bed or tank bed, year after year. It is therefore necessary for the beneficiary farmers to desilt the lakebed when the lake dries in the summer. Soil conservation practices should be followed in the catchment area in order to reduce the amount of silt entering the lake. Non-governmental organizations play an important role in this field. [source] Trends and abrupt changes of precipitation maxima in the Pearl River basin, ChinaATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE LETTERS, Issue 2 2009Q. Zhang Abstract We applied the Mann-Kendall (MK) test and Bayesian model to systematically explore trends and abrupt changes of the precipitation series in the Pearl River basin. The results showed that no significant trends were detected for annual precipitation and summer or winter precipitation totals. Significant negative trends were identified for the number of rainy days across the Pearl River basin; significant positive trends were observed regarding precipitation intensity (PI). In particular, the precipitation totals and frequencies of extremely high precipitation events are subject to significant positive trends. In addition, the number of extremely low precipitation events was also increasing significantly. Factors affecting the changes in precipitation patterns are the weakening Asian monsoon and consequently increasing moisture transport to Southern China and the Pearl River basin. In summary, the main findings of this study are: (1) increased precipitation variability and high-intensity rainfall was observed though rainy days and low-intensity rainfall have decreased, and (2) the amount of rainfall has changed little but its variability has increased over the time interval divided by change points. These finds indicate potentially increased risk for both agriculture and in locations subject to flooding, both urban and rural, across the Pearl River basin. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Scavenging efficiency of rainfall on black carbon aerosols over an urban environmentATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE LETTERS, Issue 3 2005K. Madhavi Latha Abstract Black carbon (BC) aerosols are the optically absorbing part of carbonaceous aerosols that have significantly different optical and radiative properties. The present study addresses the estimation of black carbon aerosol scavenging coefficient by using ground-based measurements over an urban environment of India, namely, Hyderabad. Extensive ground measurements of black carbon have been carried out during January to December 2004 over a tropical urban environment of Hyderabad. Seasonal variations of black carbon aerosol mass concentration showed high values during dry season and low values during monsoon season. The diurnal variations of BC suggest that the concentrations increased by a factor of ,2 during morning and evening hours compared to afternoon hours. Drastic reduction in black carbon aerosol loading has been observed during rainy days. The statistical fit between black carbon aerosol mass concentration and rainfall suggests the reduction of ,3.6 µg/m3 in atmospheric black carbon aerosol loading for every 1-mm increase in rainfall intensity over the study area. The scavenging coefficient of black carbon aerosols is found to be 1.64 × 10,5 s,1. © Crown Copyright 2005. Reproduced with the permission of Her Majesty's Stationery Office. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] | |||||||||||||