Quantitative Risk Assessments (quantitative + risk_assessment)

Distribution by Scientific Domains


Selected Abstracts


Quantitative Risk Assessment for Multivariate Continuous Outcomes with Application to Neurotoxicology: The Bivariate Case

BIOMETRICS, Issue 3 2005
Zi-Fan Yu
Summary The neurotoxic effects of chemical agents are often investigated in controlled studies on rodents, with multiple binary and continuous endpoints routinely collected. One goal is to conduct quantitative risk assessment to determine safe dose levels. Such studies face two major challenges for continuous outcomes. First, characterizing risk and defining a benchmark dose are difficult. Usually associated with an adverse binary event, risk is clearly definable in quantal settings as presence or absence of an event; finding a similar probability scale for continuous outcomes is less clear. Often, an adverse event is defined for continuous outcomes as any value below a specified cutoff level in a distribution assumed normal or log normal. Second, while continuous outcomes are traditionally analyzed separately for such studies, recent literature advocates also using multiple outcomes to assess risk. We propose a method for modeling and quantitative risk assessment for bivariate continuous outcomes that address both difficulties by extending existing percentile regression methods. The model is likelihood based; it allows separate dose,response models for each outcome while accounting for the bivariate correlation and overall characterization of risk. The approach to estimation of a benchmark dose is analogous to that for quantal data without the need to specify arbitrary cutoff values. We illustrate our methods with data from a neurotoxicity study of triethyl tin exposure in rats. [source]


Land application of treated sewage sludge: quantifying pathogen risks from consumption of crops

JOURNAL OF APPLIED MICROBIOLOGY, Issue 2 2005
P. Gale
Abstract Aims:, To predict the number of humans in the UK infected through consumption of root crops grown on agricultural land to which treated sewage sludge has been applied in accordance with the current regulations and guidance (Safe Sludge Matrix). Methods and Results:, Quantitative risk assessments based on the source, pathway, receptor approach are developed for seven pathogens, namely salmonellas, Listeria monocytogenes, campylobacters, Escherichia coli O157, Cryptosporidium parvum, Giardia, and enteroviruses. Using laboratory data for pathogen destruction by mesophilic anaerobic digestion, and not extrapolating experimental data for pathogen decay in soil to the full 30-month harvest interval specified by the Matrix, predicts 50 Giardia infections per year, but less than one infection per year for the other six pathogens. Assuming linear decay in the soil, a 12-month harvest interval eliminates the risks from all seven pathogens; the highest predicted being one infection of C. parvum in the UK every 45 years. Computer simulations show that a protective effect from binding of pathogens to particulate matter could potentially exaggerate the observed rate of decay in experimental systems. Conclusions:, The results confirm, assuming pathogens behave according to our current understanding, that the risks to humans from consumption of vegetable crops are remote. Furthermore the harvest intervals stipulated by the Safe Sludge Matrix compensate for potential lapses in the operational efficiency of sludge treatment. Significance and Impact of the Study:, The models demonstrate the huge potential impact of decay in the soil over the 12/30-month intervals specified by the Matrix, although lack of knowledge on the exact nature of soil decay processes is a source of uncertainty. The models enable the sensitivity of the predicted risks to changes in the operational efficiency of sewage sludge treatment to be assessed. [source]


The development of risk criteria for high severity low frequency events,

PROCESS SAFETY PROGRESS, Issue 1 2009
Fred Henselwood
Abstract Quantitative risk assessments (QRAs) are used within the field of process safety to decide the allocation of resources and risk reduction investments. Typically risk assessments involve the evaluation of probabilistic measures that estimate the average expected value for the situation being considered across a range of potential outcomes. The resulting expected value is then used to determine if a situation represents an acceptable or unacceptable risk based on a threshold value allotted to the risk. This approach often gives guidance that is at odds with the thoughts and behaviors of some stakeholders as illustrated by the "but what if it does happen?" type of question. This inconsistency results from the inherent limitation associated with expected value approaches in that the methodology is based on whether or not a mean assessed risk represents an acceptable risk while overlooking the possibility that a single scenario could represent an intolerable event. This article looks at an adjustment to traditional QRAs so as to assess both the acceptability of risk and the tolerability of the associated consequences relative to risk criteria. These adjustments have been found to better represent stakeholder perceptions of risk, more closely relate risk tolerance to corporate values and resources, and to better justify the use of various risk transfer strategies. 2008 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Process Saf Prog, 2009 [source]


Carcinogenicity of acetaldehyde in alcoholic beverages: risk assessment outside ethanol metabolism

ADDICTION, Issue 4 2009
Dirk W. Lachenmeier
ABSTRACT Aims In addition to being produced in ethanol metabolism, acetaldehyde occurs naturally in alcoholic beverages. Limited epidemiological evidence points to acetaldehyde as an independent risk factor for cancer during alcohol consumption, in addition to the effects of ethanol. This study aims to estimate human exposure to acetaldehyde from alcoholic beverages and provide a quantitative risk assessment. Methods The human dietary intake of acetaldehyde via alcoholic beverages was estimated based on World Health Organization (WHO) consumption data and literature on the acetaldehyde contents of different beverage groups (beer, wine, spirits and unrecorded alcohol). The risk assessment was conducted using the European Food Safety Authority's margin of exposure (MOE) approach with benchmark doses obtained from dose,response modelling of animal experiments. Life-time cancer risk was calculated using the T25 dose descriptor. Results The average exposure to acetaldehyde from alcoholic beverages was estimated at 0.112 mg/kg body weight/day. The MOE was calculated to be 498, and the life-time cancer risk at 7.6 in 10 000. Higher risk may exist for people exposed to high acetaldehyde contaminations, as we have found in certain unrecorded alcohol beverages in Guatemala and Russia, for which we have demonstrated possible exposure scenarios, with risks in the range of 1 in 1000. Conclusions The life-time cancer risks for acetaldehyde from alcoholic beverages greatly exceed the usual limits for cancer risks from the environment set between 1 : 10 000 and 1 : 1 000 000. Alcohol consumption has thus been identified as a direct source of acetaldehyde exposure, which in conjunction with other sources (food flavourings, tobacco) results in a magnitude of risk requiring intervention. An initial public health measure could be to reduce the acetaldehyde content in alcoholic beverages as low as technologically possible, and to restrict its use as a food flavour additive. [source]


The sediments of the venice lagoon (Italy) evaluated in a screening risk assessment approach: Part I,application of international sediment quality guidelines

INTEGRATED ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT, Issue 3 2007
Sabine E Apitz
Abstract Although it generally is agreed on in the scientific community that an evaluation of sediment quality solely based on total contaminant levels should be regarded only as a 1st tier or 1 LOE in a WOE framework, not all regulatory frameworks follow this approach. As will be discussed later, dredged material disposal in Venice Lagoon currently is regulated based upon the use of regionally developed SQGs as strict pass/fail criteria. The implications of this policy upon the management of the lagoon are under investigation, but studies on contaminant mobility and bioavailability and on sediment-related effects on biota and exposure (bioassays, biomarkers, bioaccumulation, biomagnification) having the characteristics (duration, number of sites and samples, frequency, number of chemicals and endpoints, etc.) to properly support (e.g., preliminary and/or detailed quantitative risk assessment) decisions on a basin scale have been carried out only recently in the Venice Lagoon (Thetis 2003; Losso et al. 2004; Carrer et al. 2005; Thetis 2005c). [source]


Quantitative Risk Assessment for Multivariate Continuous Outcomes with Application to Neurotoxicology: The Bivariate Case

BIOMETRICS, Issue 3 2005
Zi-Fan Yu
Summary The neurotoxic effects of chemical agents are often investigated in controlled studies on rodents, with multiple binary and continuous endpoints routinely collected. One goal is to conduct quantitative risk assessment to determine safe dose levels. Such studies face two major challenges for continuous outcomes. First, characterizing risk and defining a benchmark dose are difficult. Usually associated with an adverse binary event, risk is clearly definable in quantal settings as presence or absence of an event; finding a similar probability scale for continuous outcomes is less clear. Often, an adverse event is defined for continuous outcomes as any value below a specified cutoff level in a distribution assumed normal or log normal. Second, while continuous outcomes are traditionally analyzed separately for such studies, recent literature advocates also using multiple outcomes to assess risk. We propose a method for modeling and quantitative risk assessment for bivariate continuous outcomes that address both difficulties by extending existing percentile regression methods. The model is likelihood based; it allows separate dose,response models for each outcome while accounting for the bivariate correlation and overall characterization of risk. The approach to estimation of a benchmark dose is analogous to that for quantal data without the need to specify arbitrary cutoff values. We illustrate our methods with data from a neurotoxicity study of triethyl tin exposure in rats. [source]


Bycatch in a tropical schooling , penaeid fishery and comparisons with a related, specialised trawl regime

FISHERIES MANAGEMENT & ECOLOGY, Issue 3 2009
Q. DELL
Abstract, The bycatch in a tropical Australian banana prawn, Penaeus merguiensis (de Man), fishery is described and contrasted with the closely related tiger prawn, Penaeus semisulcatus De Haan and Penaeus esculentus Haswell, fishery. Most of the similarity between banana prawn fishery catches was accounted for by three teleost species constituting 51.4% of the total bycatch weight. The bycatch assemblage structure of this fishery was significantly different (P < 0.05) from the adjoining tiger prawn fishery. The banana prawn fishery had a higher mean bycatch catch rate from shorter duration trawls, but lower estimated total annual bycatch (1502 t yr,1) than the longer duration trawls of the tiger prawn fishery (20 073 t yr,1). This study provides new data for quantifying bycatch and improving the accuracy of quantitative risk assessments currently being used to demonstrate sustainability of bycatch populations. The information will be incorporated into collaborative development of a long-term monitoring programme. [source]


The european union risk assessment on zinc and zinc compounds: The process and the facts

INTEGRATED ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT, Issue 4 2005
Charles W.M. Bodar
Abstract A risk assessment on zinc and zinc compounds was carried out within the framework of Council Regulation 793/93/EEC on Existing Chemicals. This risk assessment basically followed the European Union (EU) technical guidance documents (TGDs). These TGDs are built on the current knowledge on quantitative risk assessments, mainly for organic chemicals. This article describes the tailor-made approach for the zinc risk assessment. This work lasted almost a decade and involved the contributions of all EU member states and industry, who discussed the risk assessment during technical meetings. The risk assessment is initially based on scientific findings but is interrelated with pragmatic considerations. It follows a comprehensive approach, covering both environmental and human health. In the environmental part, new methodologies were developed to deal with the natural background of zinc, essentiality, speciation, and the use of species sensitivity distributions. The major results and the process of drawing conclusions of the risk assessment are outlined: potential environmental risks of zinc and zinc compounds may occur at local and regional scales in surfacewater, sediment, and soil. No potential health risks were identified for consumers and man indirectly exposed via the environment. For workers, potential health risks were identified only for zinc oxide and zinc chloride. [source]


High dimensional model representation for piece-wise continuous function approximation

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL FOR NUMERICAL METHODS IN BIOMEDICAL ENGINEERING, Issue 12 2008
Rajib Chowdhury
Abstract High dimensional model representation (HDMR) approximates multivariate functions in such a way that the component functions of the approximation are ordered starting from a constant and gradually approaching to multivariance as we proceed along the terms like first-order, second-order and so on. Until now HDMR applications include construction of a computational model directly from laboratory/field data, creating an efficient fully equivalent operational model to replace an existing time-consuming mathematical model, identification of key model variables, global uncertainty assessments, efficient quantitative risk assessments, etc. In this paper, the potential of HDMR for tackling univariate and multivariate piece-wise continuous functions is explored. Eight numerical examples are presented to illustrate the performance of HDMR for approximating a univariate or a multivariate piece-wise continuous function with an equivalent continuous function. Copyright 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source]


Enumeration of Escherichia coli O157 in cattle faeces using most probable number technique and automated immunomagnetic separation

LETTERS IN APPLIED MICROBIOLOGY, Issue 1 2004
N. Fegan
Abstract Aims:, To determine the numbers of Escherichia coli O157 present in the faeces of naturally infected cattle. Methods and Results:, A combination of the most probable number (MPN) technique and automated immunomagnetic separation (AIMS) was used to enumerate E. coli O157 in cattle faeces from both pasture-fed and grain-fed animals. A total of 22 E. coli O157 positive faecal samples were enumerated for E. coli O157 (10 from pasture-fed and 12 from grain-fed animals). The numbers of E. coli O157 in cattle faeces varied from undetectable (<3 MPN g,1 of faeces) to 24 104 MPN g,1. There was no significant difference (P = 006) between the numbers of E. coli O157 in pasture-fed or grain-fed cattle faeces, although the geometric mean (antilog of the mean of log10 transformed MPN values) was higher in grain-fed (130 MPN g,1) than in pasture-fed (13 MPN g,1). Conclusions:, Although the number of samples tested is small, the results indicate that E. coli O157 make up a small proportion of the total E. coli population present in cattle faeces. Significance and Impact of the Study:, Information on the numbers of E. coli O157 present in cattle will assist in developing more robust quantitative risk assessments and formulating intervention strategies. [source]


LOPA misapplied: Common errors can lead to incorrect conclusions,,

PROCESS SAFETY PROGRESS, Issue 4 2009
Karen A. Study
Abstract Layer of Protection Analysis is a powerful tool for quantitative risk assessments. If applied correctly, it can provide quick and efficient guidance on what additional safeguards are needed, if any, to protect against a given scenario. If misapplied, an overly conservative calculation of risk may result in over-instrumentation, additional life-cycle costs, and spurious trips. A nonconservative calculation of risk could result in an under-protected system and unacceptable risk of an undesired consequence occurring. This article describes several categories of common errors, some overly conservative and some nonconservative. Case studies of actual plant scenarios are used to illustrate. 2009 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Process Saf Prog 2009 [source]