Public Finances (public + finance)

Distribution by Scientific Domains
Distribution within Business, Economics, Finance and Accounting


Selected Abstracts


The Completely Decentralized City: The Case for Benefits Based Public Finance

AMERICAN JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS AND SOCIOLOGY, Issue 1 2001
Fed E. Foldvary
An alternative to centralized top-down city governance is a multi-level bottom-up structure based on small neighborhood contractual communities. This paper analyzes the voting rules and public finances of decentralized, contractual urban governance and the likely outcome of such a constitutional structure, substantially reduced transfer seeking or rent seeking. Tax and service substitution, with lower-level funding and services substituting for higher-level public finance, is the general process by which the governance would devolve. Land rent is the most feasible source of such decentralized public finance, and local communities could also engage in local currency and credit services. Some empirical examples demonstrate the implementation of some of these governance structures. [source]


Mayoral Quality and Local Public Finance

PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION REVIEW, Issue 3 2009
Claudia N. Avellaneda
In most local developing settings, the political leader and the municipal manager are embodied in the same figure, the directly elected mayor. This research explores the impact of mayoral quality on local public finances in a developing country. Mayoral quality is operationalized as educational background and job-related expertise to analyze its impact on two local financial indicators: property tax collection and social spending per capita. The mayoral quality thesis is tested across 40 Colombian municipalities over five years (2000,2004). After considering other political, economic, and external influences, the findings reveal that mayoral quality is associated with greater property tax collection and more social spending per capita. This positive influence, however, decreases under external constraints,such as presence of illegal armed groups. This study demonstrates how much influence the mayor can have when circumstances permit. The findings point to the significance of electing qualified mayors, as decentralization may not directly improve subnational finance. Instead, through decentralization, qualified mayors contribute to improved local public finance. [source]


Public finance and the optimal speed of transition,

THE ECONOMICS OF TRANSITION, Issue 3 2003
Micael Castanheira
Abstract We develop a general equilibrium model that jointly considers the influence of capital accumulation constraints and of labour market frictions on the process of transition. We endogenize the economic and budgetary costs of different government policies and show that, early in transition, governments ought to subsidize state firms. Provided that intertemporal commitment is feasible, this policy limits the initial output fall, which relaxes capital accumulation constraints, accelerates transition, and increases welfare. Moreover, by resorting to indirect , instead of direct , taxes, governments can bring the path of transition closer to the first best. Yet, political pressures may induce a policy of suboptimal subsidization. [source]


Education for All: How Much Will It Cost?

DEVELOPMENT AND CHANGE, Issue 1 2004
Enrique Delamonica
In 1990, a target of universal access to basic education by the year 2000 was set by two global conferences. Ten years later, however, it was clear that the target had not been met. Too many countries had made insufficient progress, and although many of the reasons for this inadequate progress were country-specific, one factor stood out in virtually all countries: inadequate public finance for primary education. In 2000, the Millennium Summit set a new target date for achieving ,education for all' of 2015. This article updates the global and regional cost estimates for reaching that target. The estimates are based on the most recent country-by-country data on budgetary expenditure, population and enrolment trends, and unit cost. The annual additional cost of achieving ,education for all' in developing countries by 2015 is estimated at US$ 9.1 billion. Although this is affordable at the global level, individual countries will need considerably more resources than are currently available. However, official development assistance (ODA) has been declining, and the share of ODA allocated to basic education has changed little over the past decade. Therefore, although affordable, the target of universal basic education by 2015 is likely to be missed, just as it was in 2000, without a major change both in ODA and national budgets. [source]


THE OPTIMAL PUBLIC EXPENDITURE FINANCING POLICY: DOES THE LEVEL OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT MATTER?

ECONOMIC INQUIRY, Issue 3 2007
NILOY BOSE
This paper explores how the optimal mode of public finance depends on the level of economic development. The theoretical analysis suggests that in the presence of capital market imperfection and liquidity shocks, the detrimental effect of inflation on growth is stronger (weaker) at lower (higher) levels of economic development. Consequently, income taxation (seigniorage) is a relatively less distortionary way of financing public expenditure for low-income (high-income) countries. We provide empirical support for our model's predictions using a panel of 21 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries and 40 developing countries observed over the period 1972,1999. (JEL E44, E6, H6, O42) [source]


District health systems in a neoliberal world: a review of five key policy areas,

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF HEALTH PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT, Issue S1 2003
Malcolm Segall
Abstract District health systems, comprising primary health care and first referral hospitals, are key to the delivery of basic health services in developing countries. They should be prioritized in resource allocation and in the building of management and service capacity. The relegation in the World Health Report 2000 of primary health care to a ,second generation' reform,to be superseded by third generation reforms with a market orientation,flows from an analysis that is historically flawed and ideologically biased. Primary health care has struggled against economic crisis and adjustment and a neoliberal ideology often averse to its principles. To ascribe failures of primary health care to a weakness in policy design, when the political economy has starved it of resources, is to blame the victim. Improvement in the working and living conditions of health workers is a precondition for the effective delivery of public health services. A multidimensional programme of health worker rehabilitation should be developed as the foundation for health service recovery. District health systems can and should be financed (at least mainly) from public funds. Although in certain situations user fees have improved the quality and increased the utilization of primary care services, direct charges deter health care use by the poor and can result in further impoverishment. Direct user fees should be replaced progressively by increased public finance and, where possible, by prepayment schemes based on principles of social health insurance with public subsidization. Priority setting should be driven mainly by the objective to achieve equity in health and wellbeing outcomes. Cost effectiveness should enter into the selection of treatments for people (productive efficiency), but not into the selection of people for treatment (allocative efficiency). Decentralization is likely to be advantageous in most health systems, although the exact form(s) should be selected with care and implementation should be phased in after adequate preparation. The public health service should usually play the lead provider role in district health systems, but non-government providers can be contracted if needed. There is little or no evidence to support proactive privatization, marketization or provider competition. Democratization of political and popular involvement in health enhances the benefits of decentralization and community participation. Integrated district health systems are the means by which specific health programmes can best be delivered in the context of overall health care needs. International assistance should address communicable disease control priorities in ways that strengthen local health systems and do not undermine them. The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria should not repeat the mistakes of the mass compaigns of past decades. In particular, it should not set programme targets that are driven by an international agenda and which are achievable only at the cost of an adverse impact on sustainable health systems. Above all the targets must not retard the development of the district health systems so badly needed by the rural poor. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source]


Product Quality and the Optimal Structure of Commodity Taxes

JOURNAL OF PUBLIC ECONOMIC THEORY, Issue 4 2006
SOFIA DELIPALLA
The comparison between ad valorem and specific taxation is among the oldest issues in formal public finance and is important for policy in the European Union (EU) and elsewhere. This paper develops and articulates simple but very general elasticity rules that characterize the optimal balance between the two in a model of endogenous product quality. These rules temper the preference for ad valorem taxation that emerges from homogeneous product models, pointing to relatively heavy reliance on whichever form of taxation has the least effect on product quality. [source]


Oil and macroeconomic fluctuations in Mexico

OPEC ENERGY REVIEW, Issue 4 2002
FranÁois Boye
This paper tests the conventional contention that, due to the major policy changes in Mexico that stem from the 1980s, fluctuations in the international oil market have had no significant impact on movements in the Mexican economy in the last two decades. It does this by using univariate statistical techniques in its first part and resorting to an econometric structural break test and impulse response analysis respectively in its last two parts. Its findings bear out conventional wisdom: Mexico cannot be likened to an OPEC Country in any respect, including the point of view that its public finance is totally impervious to fluctuations in its oil revenue. [source]


Fiscal Sociology: What For?

AMERICAN JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS AND SOCIOLOGY, Issue 1 2002
Jurgen Backhaus
In discussing the question, Fiscal sociology: What for? we shall first give a short sketch of the history of thought of the field. We will next identify main issues. In discussing the concept of the tax state, we emphasize issues in constitutional public finance. One of the fields in which fiscal sociology has been most important is taxation, and notably income taxation. In citing applications and issues, we identify an entire alphabet of fiscal sociological issues. We conclude by discussing the future of the field in both instruction and research. [source]


The Completely Decentralized City: The Case for Benefits Based Public Finance

AMERICAN JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS AND SOCIOLOGY, Issue 1 2001
Fed E. Foldvary
An alternative to centralized top-down city governance is a multi-level bottom-up structure based on small neighborhood contractual communities. This paper analyzes the voting rules and public finances of decentralized, contractual urban governance and the likely outcome of such a constitutional structure, substantially reduced transfer seeking or rent seeking. Tax and service substitution, with lower-level funding and services substituting for higher-level public finance, is the general process by which the governance would devolve. Land rent is the most feasible source of such decentralized public finance, and local communities could also engage in local currency and credit services. Some empirical examples demonstrate the implementation of some of these governance structures. [source]


Fiscal Federalism in Australia

PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION, Issue 1 2004
Iain McLean
Australia displays high vertical fiscal imbalance (VFI) for historical and constitutional reasons. It also attempts to achieve the highest degree of horizontal fiscal equalization (HFE) to be found in any democratic federation. The Commonwealth Grants Commission (CGC), a non-partisan body at arm's length from politicians, oversees the regime. A recent report claims that equity, efficiency and transparency would all improve if the regime were abolished. Such a change is politically unachievable, but it raises interesting issues in public finance and public administration, which carry over to other federations and union states. An economically efficient system would: minimize perverse incentives, especially incentives to seek rent; encourage states to grow; discourage suboptimal location decisions; minimize transaction costs. An equitable system would maximize equity between relevantly similar individuals. Aspects of the Australian system that should be copied include the non-partisan agency and the target of HFE between component parts of the country. Aspects that should be discussed and perhaps copied include the very extensive equalization, including the feature of equalizing away the effects of grants for special purposes. Aspects that should probably not be copied include the cumbersome formulae and some of the perverse methods of calculating for ,needs'. All abbreviations and acronyms are spelt out in the Appendix on page 37. [source]


Government intervention in the economy: a comparative analysis of Singapore and Hong Kong

PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION & DEVELOPMENT, Issue 5 2000
Newman M. K. LamArticle first published online: 5 FEB 200
Singapore and Hong Kong are very different and yet very similar in many respects. A study of their current profiles and historical development indicates that the two have achieved comparable economic successes through different development strategies. After World War II, Singapore gained political independence while Hong Kong achieved economic restructuring. The Singapore government adopted an interventionist approach to develop its economy, while the Hong Kong government followed the laissez-faire principle. However, as the two were maturing socially and economically in the last few decades, both governments found the necessity to adopt a hybrid strategy of mixing economic interventions with the free-market approach. An examination of public finance and economic policies since the onset of the Asian economic turmoil shows that the two have become increasingly similar in their economic approaches, with heavy emphasis on stabilizing the economy and stimulating business activities through government initiatives. Based on their projected economic, social and political development, the Hong Kong government is expected to become more interventionist while its Singapore counterpart is expected to go in the opposite direction. The economic development strategies of the two governments, coming from two extremes, will become more alike in the foreseeable future, for reasons of political feasibility in the former. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source]


Mayoral Quality and Local Public Finance

PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION REVIEW, Issue 3 2009
Claudia N. Avellaneda
In most local developing settings, the political leader and the municipal manager are embodied in the same figure, the directly elected mayor. This research explores the impact of mayoral quality on local public finances in a developing country. Mayoral quality is operationalized as educational background and job-related expertise to analyze its impact on two local financial indicators: property tax collection and social spending per capita. The mayoral quality thesis is tested across 40 Colombian municipalities over five years (2000,2004). After considering other political, economic, and external influences, the findings reveal that mayoral quality is associated with greater property tax collection and more social spending per capita. This positive influence, however, decreases under external constraints,such as presence of illegal armed groups. This study demonstrates how much influence the mayor can have when circumstances permit. The findings point to the significance of electing qualified mayors, as decentralization may not directly improve subnational finance. Instead, through decentralization, qualified mayors contribute to improved local public finance. [source]


Optimal Commodity Taxes in Australia

THE AUSTRALIAN ECONOMIC REVIEW, Issue 1 2002
Paul Blacklow
The recent changes to commodity taxes in Australia have led to renewed interest in a classic question in public finance: should the tax rates be uniform or differentiated? This article attempts to answer this question by calculating optimal commodity taxes in Australia for a nine-item disaggregation. The estimates point to non-uniform commodity taxes, even from the viewpoint of an inequality-insensitive tax planner. The optimal commodity taxes bear little resemblance with the pre-GST or post-GST tax rates. No less significant is our observation that even the purely efficiency-driven optimal commodity taxes imply lower real expenditure inequality than the actual taxes. [source]


Debt, Growth and Budgetary Regimes

BULLETIN OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH, Issue 3 2004
Sugata Ghosh
E62; H41; O40 Abstract Within the Barro (1990) model of productive public services, but with the inclusion of public debt, we derive and characterize on the balanced growth path, a set of welfare-maximizing fiscal rules under two budgetary regimes , one with only the standard dynamic government budget constraint, and the other involving the golden rule of public finance. We demonstrate analytically that the optimal fiscal policy differs in the two budgetary regimes considered. We also analyse two cases within the second regime: one, where the ratio of current spending to tax revenues is parametrically given, and another, where this ratio is optimally chosen by the government. [source]


Regional contributions to UK public finances

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK, Issue 1 2007
Article first published online: 7 FEB 200
First page of article [source]


The political economy of direct legislation: direct democracy and local decision,making

ECONOMIC POLICY, Issue 33 2001
Lars P Feld
Local and regional governments account for an important share of total government spending and, given the decentralization trend in OECD nations, this is likely to increase. How should this spending be governed? This article argues that direct democracy is best suited to organize decision,making at the state and local level. To support this, we present the main theoretical arguments on why and how referenda and initiatives affect fiscal policy outcomes. The basic argument concerns voter control. Under representative democracy, citizens only have direct control at election time. With referenda and initiatives, citizens can selectively control their representatives on specific policies whenever they deviate sufficiently from citizens' preferences. As a result, fiscal policy outcomes are likely to more closely reflect voter preferences. We empirically test this on Swiss data since Switzerland provides a ,natural laboratory' for local governance. The governance structures of Swiss cantons and localities with respect to fiscal issues range from classic parliamentary democracy to pure direct democracy, and an important part of spending and taxation is controlled at these levels. Specifically, we estimate an econometric model of fiscal behaviour using data from 1986 to 1997 for the 26 Swiss cantons, and 1990 data on 134 local communities. It is shown that mandatory referenda on fiscal issues at both levels have a dampening effect on expenditure and revenue, and at the local level also on public debt. Combining this with existing empirical evidence leads to a relatively uncontested result, namely that elements of direct democracy are associated with sounder public finances, better economic performance and higher satisfaction of citizens. [source]


Assessing the Fiscal Costs and Benefits of A8 Migration to the UK,

FISCAL STUDIES, Issue 1 2010
Christian Dustmann
J61; H20 Abstract This paper assesses the fiscal consequences of migration to the UK from the Central and Eastern European countries that joined the European Union in May 2004 (A8 countries). We show that A8 immigrants who arrived after EU enlargement in 2004 and who have at least one year of residence, and are therefore legally eligible to claim benefits, are 59 per cent less likely than natives to receive state benefits or tax credits and 57 per cent less likely to live in social housing. Furthermore, even if A8 immigrants had the same demographic characteristics as natives, they would still be 13 per cent less likely to receive benefits and 29 per cent less likely to live in social housing. We go on to compare the net fiscal contribution of A8 immigrants with that of individuals born in the UK, and find that in each fiscal year since enlargement in 2004, irrespective of the way that the net fiscal contribution is defined, A8 immigrants made a positive contribution to the public finances despite the fact that the UK has been running a budget deficit over the last few years. This is because they have a higher labour force participation rate, pay proportionately more in indirect taxes and make much less use of benefits and public services. [source]


Keeping up or Falling behind?

FISCAL STUDIES, Issue 4 2008
Poverty, Tax Uprating on Incomes, The Impact of Benefit
D31; I38 Abstract Each year, the government decides how much to raise benefits and tax allowances. In the UK, the basis for these upratings is rarely debated, yet has major long-term consequences for the relative living standards of different groups as well as for the public finances. This paper considers the medium-term implications of present uprating policies, which vary across parameters of the tax,benefit system. Continuing these policies for 20 years, other things staying the same, would result in a near doubling of the child poverty rate alongside a substantial gain to the public finances. At the same time, pensioners are largely protected by the earnings indexation of pensioner benefits including, in time, the basic state pension. We show how difficult it will be to meet the UK child poverty targets unless the greater inequality inherent in the current regime for uprating payments and allowances is redressed. [source]


Funding a PAYG pension system: the case of Italy

FISCAL STUDIES, Issue 4 2001
Lorenzo Forni
Abstract Italy is characterised by a mature pay-as-you-go social security system and by particularly adverse population projections. Given these trends, the social security contribution rate is expected to increase above its current high level. This hinders the development of employer-provided pension funds and introduces a significant wedge between labour cost and earnings that discourages both labour demand and labour supply. Any proposal to reduce payroll taxes and to reform the system in the direction of partial funding has to cope with the state of Italian public finances. Italy has to comply with the Stability and Growth Pact that imposes constraints on budget deficit and debt trends. Using micro data from the Bank of Italy's Survey of Household Income and Wealth and official population projections, we estimate future employment trends under different demographic and macroeconomic scenarios and compute the cost of the transition. We show that it would be substantially reduced if positive effects on employment were induced by the payroll tax reduction. [source]


Laissez-faire governance and the archetype laissez-faire city in the USA: exploring Houston

GEOGRAFISKA ANNALER SERIES B: HUMAN GEOGRAPHY, Issue 1 2003
Igor Vojnovic
This article explores the governance of Houston, the archetype laissez-faire city in the USA. The research examines the complexity of Houston's minimal government intervention rhetoric, which in practice involves extensive federal, state and local government involvement in economic development in combination with a disinterest in social service and income maintenance programmes. This governance strategy is outlined through an examination both of regional public policy and local public finances. The analysis illustrates that Houston's local governance has historically been based on a management approach that attempts actively to minimize costs for potential investors to locate in the City, through public intervention, while at the same time generating an unattractive urban environment for the socially marginalized , hence the disinterest in social services. Thus, despite the local laissez-faire rhetoric, government intervention in Houston's growth has been vital and has produced the extraordinary impacts usually expected from public involvement in local economic development. The foundations of this local governance strategy are both predicted and advocated by the public choice approach, a theoretical framework whose emphasis on inter-municipal competition advances management tactics based on maintaining low taxes and low expenditures on public welfare. The research also shows, however, that Houston is unique, when compared to other economically successful US cities, in following such an extreme approach of this management strategy. [source]


FREE CASH FLOW AND PUBLIC GOVERNANCE: THE CASE OF ALASKA

JOURNAL OF APPLIED CORPORATE FINANCE, Issue 3 2000
Dwight R. Lee
In a widely cited 1986 article in the American Economic Review, Michael Jensen gave the concept of free cash flow (FCF) a new twist by redefining it as cash flow in excess of that required to fund all projects with positive net present values. Put another way, FCF represents funds available in the firm that managers may choose to hold as idle cash, return to shareholders, or invest in projects with returns below the firm's cost of capital. In redefining FCF in this way, Jensen converted FCF from a measure of economic income and value into a measure of corporate assets available for discretionary, and potentially value-destroying, use by firm managers. And, as he argued in his important article, managers in mature businesses with substantial free cash flow have a tendency to destroy value by plowing too much capital back into those businesses or, often worse, making ill-advised acquisitions in unrelated businesses. Several methods have been developed in financial markets and internal corporate governance systems to discourage managers from wasting FCF. Better monitoring by boards of directors, large ownership blocks, and properly aligned management compensation contracts are all parts of the solution. And the extraordinary increase in stock repurchases in recent years, invariably applauded by investors, is another illustration of the market's success in encouraging companies to address their free cash flow problems. But if the "FCF problem" of the private sector has attracted considerable attention from finance scholars, the problem is even more acute in the public sector, where FCF can be thought of as tax revenue in excess of what is required to finance well-defined and generally accepted levels of public services. Unlike the private sector, in the public sector there are neither measures nor mechanisms by which to monitor and constrain wasteful spending by elected officials. In this article, the authors attempt to measure the costs to taxpayers of government FCF using the case of Alaska, which since 1969 has received a huge windfall of tax revenue from North Slope oil leases. After examining the state's public finances from 1968 through 1993, the authors offer $25 billion as a conservative estimate of the social losses from Alaska's waste of free cash flow during that 25-year period. [source]


Detecting year-of-birth mortality patterns with limited data

JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY: SERIES A (STATISTICS IN SOCIETY), Issue 1 2008
S. J. Richards
Summary., Late life mortality patterns are of crucial interest to actuaries assessing risk of longevity, most obviously for annuities and defined benefit pension schemes. The stability of public finances is also affected, as the governments have very substantial risk of longevity in the form of state benefits and public sector pension schemes. One important explanatory variable for late life mortality patterns is year of birth. Previous work has demonstrated various techniques for detecting such patterns, but always with long time series of mortality rates. The paper describes two alternative ways to detect such patterns, even with missing population data or the absence of a time series. The paper finds support for the idea that different birth cohorts have different rates of aging. [source]


The Completely Decentralized City: The Case for Benefits Based Public Finance

AMERICAN JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS AND SOCIOLOGY, Issue 1 2001
Fed E. Foldvary
An alternative to centralized top-down city governance is a multi-level bottom-up structure based on small neighborhood contractual communities. This paper analyzes the voting rules and public finances of decentralized, contractual urban governance and the likely outcome of such a constitutional structure, substantially reduced transfer seeking or rent seeking. Tax and service substitution, with lower-level funding and services substituting for higher-level public finance, is the general process by which the governance would devolve. Land rent is the most feasible source of such decentralized public finance, and local communities could also engage in local currency and credit services. Some empirical examples demonstrate the implementation of some of these governance structures. [source]


Nachhaltige Finanz- und Investitionspolitik der Bundeslšnder,

PERSPEKTIVEN DER WIRTSCHAFTSPOLITIK, Issue S1 2007
Wolfgang Kitterer
Their portion of the public debt amounts to nearly 40 percent. Econometric tests show that the fiscal policy of the federal states taken collectively is not sustainable. The requirement for fiscal sustainability is fulfilled only by two western Laender, Hesse and North-Rhine Westphalia, and one eastern Land (Saxony). Furthermore, it is shown that the constitutional "golden rule" stipulating that borrowing should not exceed investment expenditures does not ensure the solvency of the states. This holds for theoretical reasons but also because there is a lack of clarity and enforceability. Finally, it is argued that the commitment of subnational governments to sustainable public finances could be strengthened by invigorating state-level tax and expenditure autonomy. [source]


Mayoral Quality and Local Public Finance

PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION REVIEW, Issue 3 2009
Claudia N. Avellaneda
In most local developing settings, the political leader and the municipal manager are embodied in the same figure, the directly elected mayor. This research explores the impact of mayoral quality on local public finances in a developing country. Mayoral quality is operationalized as educational background and job-related expertise to analyze its impact on two local financial indicators: property tax collection and social spending per capita. The mayoral quality thesis is tested across 40 Colombian municipalities over five years (2000,2004). After considering other political, economic, and external influences, the findings reveal that mayoral quality is associated with greater property tax collection and more social spending per capita. This positive influence, however, decreases under external constraints,such as presence of illegal armed groups. This study demonstrates how much influence the mayor can have when circumstances permit. The findings point to the significance of electing qualified mayors, as decentralization may not directly improve subnational finance. Instead, through decentralization, qualified mayors contribute to improved local public finance. [source]


The Pensions Green Paper: A Generational Accounting Perspective

THE ECONOMIC JOURNAL, Issue 467 2000
Phil Agulnik
In this note we show how the policy proposals contained in the government's Green Paper on pensions (DSS, 1998) affect the long term sustainability of the UK's public finances and redistribution between current and future generations. Using the methodology of generational accounting we show that the proposals in the Green Paper will marginally increase the tax rise needed to ensure intertemporal solvency, and slightly worsen generational imbalances. The effect of implied changes in National Insurance Contributions, and the fiscal and generational implications of fully funding the proposed State Second Pension, are also discussed. [source]


UK DEBT SUSTAINABILITY: SOME NONLINEAR EVIDENCE AND THEORETICAL IMPLICATIONS,

THE MANCHESTER SCHOOL, Issue 3 2008
JOHN CONSIDINE
In this paper we assess whether the UK public finances were sustainable for the period 1919,2001. A robust test of sustainability is presented using a nonlinear representation of the debt,GDP ratio. Empirical evidence supports debt sustainability. Moreover, the exponential smooth transition autoregressive representation is evidence that sustainability is the result of active debt management rather than tax smoothing. The results strongly support the active debt management hypothesis for the UK. [source]