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Probability Score (probability + score)

Distribution by Scientific Domains

Medical Sciences	44%

Selected Abstracts

Infection probability score, APACHE II and KARNOFSKY scoring systems as predictors of infection onset in haematology,oncology patients

JOURNAL OF CLINICAL NURSING, Issue 11-12 2010
Eleni Apostolopolou
Aim., To assess the predictive power of three systems: Infection Probability Score, APACHE II and KARNOFSKY score to the onset of healthcare-associated infections in haematology,oncology patients. Background., The high incidence of healthcare-associated infections is a frequent problem in haematology,oncology patients that affects morbidity and mortality of these patients. Design., A retrospective surveillance survey. Method., The survey was conducted for seven months in the haematology unit of a general hospital in Greece to assess the predictive power of Infection Probability Score, APACHE II and KARNOFSKY score to the onset of healthcare-associated infections. The sample consisted of 102 hospitalised patients. The diagnosis of healthcare-associated infections was based on the definitions proposed by CDC. Results., Among the participants, 53 (52%) were males and 49 (48%) were females with a mean age of 53·30 (SD 18·59) years old (range, 17,85 years). The incidence density of healthcare-associated infections (the number of new cases of healthcare-associated infections per 1000 patient-days) was 21·8 infections per 1000 patient-days. Among the 102 patients, healthcare-associated infections occurred in 32 (31·4%) patients who had a total of 48 healthcare-associated infections (47·5%). Among the 38 patients with neutropenia, 26 (68·4%) had more than one healthcare-associated infection. Of the 48 detected healthcare-associated infections, the most frequent type was blood-stream infection (n = 17, 35·4%), followed by Clostridium difficile infection (n = 11, 22·9%) and respiratory tract infection (n = 8, 3·4%). The best cut-off value of Infection Probability Score (IPS) for the prediction of a healthcare-associated infection was 10 with sensitivity of 59·4% and specificity of 74·3%. Conclusions., Between the three different prognostic scoring systems, IPS had the best sensitivity in predicting healthcare-associated infections. Relevance to clinical practice., IPS is an effective tool and should be used from nurses for the early detection of haematology,oncology patients who are susceptible to the onset of a healthcare-associated infection. [source]

Evaluation of probabilistic prediction systems for a scalar variable

THE QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, Issue 609 2005
G. Candille
Abstract A systematic study is performed of a number of scores that can be used for objective validation of probabilistic prediction of scalar variables: Rank Histograms, Discrete and Continuous Ranked Probability Scores (DRPS and CRPS, respectively). The reliability-resolution-uncertainty decomposition, defined by Murphy for the DRPS, and extended here to the CRPS, is studied in detail. The decomposition is applied to the results of the Ensemble Prediction Systems of the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. Comparison is made with the decomposition of the CRPS defined by Hersbach. The possibility of determining an accurate reliability-resolution decomposition of the RPSs is severely limited by the unavoidably (relatively) small number of available realizations of the prediction system. The Hersbach decomposition may be an appropriate compromise between the competing needs for accuracy and practical computability. Copyright © 2005 Royal Meteorological Society. [source]

Infection probability score, APACHE II and KARNOFSKY scoring systems as predictors of infection onset in haematology,oncology patients

Diagnostic score for heparin-induced thrombocytopenia after cardiopulmonary bypass

JOURNAL OF THROMBOSIS AND HAEMOSTASIS, Issue 11 2004
A. Lillo-Le Louet
Summary. Heparin-induced thrombocytopenia (HIT) occurs in nearly 3% of patients treated with heparin after cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB). HIT carries a risk of severe thrombotic complications, and must be diagnosed rapidly. To identify simple criteria for estimating the probability of HIT after CPB, we retrospectively analyzed the files of 84 patients with suspected HIT after CPB and we analyzed the usefulness of several variables collected at the time of HIT suspicion to estimate HIT probability. HIT was confirmed in 35 cases and ruled out in 49 cases, on the basis of a platelet increment after heparin withdrawal, detection of heparin-dependent antibodies, and absence of other clear cause of thrombocytopenia. A biphasic platelet count from CPB to the first day of suspected HIT, an interval of ,,5 days from CPB to the first day of suspected HIT, and a CPB duration of ,,118 min were independent risk factors for HIT. These variables were combined to create a post-CPB HIT probability score. The score correctly identified 34/35 HIT patients and 28/49-non-HIT patients. This score, which can be applied as soon as HIT is suspected after CPB, has very good negative predictive value (97%). Prospective studies are required to confirm these findings. [source]

Application of the behavioral investigative support system for profiling perpetrators of serial sexual assaults,

BEHAVIORAL SCIENCES & THE LAW, Issue 6 2007
Kaeko Yokota Ph.D.
The authors developed a data-based profiling system in order to support offender profiling. The system stored incident records of prior offenders. Inputting offence details of an unsolved incident, a probability score was assigned to each prior offender in the system; the score represented the behavioral similarity with the unsolved incident. The system then ranked all offenders in the system according to the probability scores, and prioritized the high-ranked offenders as possible suspects. Moreover, the system inferred the characteristics of unknown offenders by accumulating characteristics of the high-ranked offenders. The system achieved promising accuracy, especially for linking crimes to perpetrators. In 45 out of 81 simulation trials, the target offenders were retrieved as a rank score of 1 from among 868 sex offenders. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source]

Diagnostic accuracy of Heidelberg Retina Tomograph III classifications in a Turkish primary open-angle glaucoma population

ACTA OPHTHALMOLOGICA, Issue 1 2010
Banu Bozkurt
Abstract. Purpose:, This study aimed to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of Moorfields regression analysis (MRA) and the glaucoma probability score (GPS) in primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG) and to measure the level of agreement between the two algorithms in classifying eyes as normal or abnormal in a Turkish population. Methods:, We prospectively selected 184 healthy subjects and 158 subjects with POAG, who underwent an ophthalmological examination, visual field analysis and imaging with the Heidelberg Retina Tomograph II, using HRT III software, Version 3.0. The diagnostic accuracies of the two classifications were measured when the borderline was taken as either normal (highest specificity criteria) or abnormal (highest sensitivity criteria). The agreement between them was calculated using the unweighted kappa (,) coefficient. Results:, Optic nerve head topographic parameters showed statistically significant differences between the control and POAG groups (p < 0.001). The parameters with the highest area under the receiver operating characteristic curves were global GPS (0.86), cup : disc area (0.85), rim : disc area (0.85) and vertical cup : disc (0.85). According to the highest specificity criteria, MRA had a sensitivity of 67.7% and a specificity of 95.1%, whereas the GPS had a sensitivity of 70.9% and a specificity of 88.0%. According to the highest sensitivity criteria, MRA had a sensitivity of 81.0% and a specificity of 75.0%, whereas the GPS had a sensitivity of 89.2% and a specificity of 57.6%. A moderate agreement of 68% (233 eyes) with a , coefficient of 0.51 was found between MRA and the GPS. Conclusions:, The GPS automated classification showed similar sensitivity to MRA, but considerably lower specificity, when applied in a Turkish population. [source]

SyGMa: Combining Expert Knowledge and Empirical Scoring in the Prediction of Metabolites

CHEMMEDCHEM, Issue 5 2008
Lars Ridder Dr.
Abstract Predictions of potential metabolites based on chemical structure are becoming increasingly important in drug discovery to guide medicinal chemistry efforts that address metabolic issues and to support experimental metabolite screening and identification. Herein we present a novel rule-based method, SyGMa (Systematic Generation of potential Metabolites), to predict the potential metabolites of a given parent structure. A set of reaction rules covering a broad range of phase,1 and phase,2 metabolism has been derived from metabolic reactions reported in the Metabolite Database to occur in humans. An empirical probability score is assigned to each rule representing the fraction of correctly predicted metabolites in the training database. This score is used to refine the rules and to rank predicted metabolites. The current rule set of SyGMa covers approximately 70,% of biotransformation reactions observed in humans. Evaluation of the rule-based predictions demonstrated a significant enrichment of true metabolites in the top of the ranking list: while in total, 68,% of all observed metabolites in an independent test set were reproduced by SyGMa, a large part, 30,% of the observed metabolites, were identified among the top three predictions. From a subset of cytochrome P450 specific metabolites, 84,% were reproduced overall, with 66,% in the top three predicted phase,1 metabolites. A similarity analysis of the reactions present in the database was performed to obtain an overview of the metabolic reactions predicted by SyGMa and to support ongoing efforts to extend the rules. Specific examples demonstrate the use of SyGMa in experimental metabolite identification and the application of SyGMa to suggest chemical modifications that improve the metabolic stability of compounds. [source]

Sensitivity to the locomotor-stimulant effects of ethanol and allopregnanolone: a quantitative trait locus study of common genetic influence

GENES, BRAIN AND BEHAVIOR, Issue 7 2006
A. A. Palmer
Previous studies have suggested that common genetic mechanisms influence sensitivity to the locomotor-stimulant effects of ethanol and allopregnanolone. We conducted two quantitative trait locus (QTL) studies to identify chromosomal regions that harbor genes that influence locomotor response to ethanol (2 g/kg) and allopregnanolone (17 mg/kg) using F2 crosses between C57BL/6J and DBA/2J mice. Because our previous data from the BXD recombinant inbred strains had indicated that chromosome 2 contained QTL for sensitivity to the locomotor-stimulant effects of both ethanol and allopregnanolone, we also tested reciprocal chromosome 2 congenic strains for sensitivity to the locomotor-stimulant effects of both drugs. The F2 analysis for ethanol sensitivity identified significant QTL on chromosomes 1 and 2 and suggestive QTL on chromosomes 5 and 9. The analysis of the allopregnanolone F2 study identified suggestive QTL on chromosomes 3, 5 and 12. Suggestive evidence for a female-specific QTL on chromosome 2 was also found. The studies of congenic mouse strains indicated that both the congenic strains captured one or more QTL for sensitivity to the locomotor-stimulant effects of both ethanol (2 g/kg) and allopregnanolone (17 mg/kg). When Fisher's method was used to combine the P values for the RI, F2 and congenic studies of the chromosome 2 QTL, cumulative probability scores of 9.6 × 10,15 for ethanol and 7.7 × 10,7 for allopregnanolone were obtained. These results confirm the presence of QTL for ethanol and allopregnanolone sensitivity in a common region of chromosome 2 and suggest possible pleiotropic genetic influence on sensitivity to these drugs. [source]