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Priori Probability (priori + probability)
Selected AbstractsFrom unambiguous quantum state discrimination to quantum state filteringFORTSCHRITTE DER PHYSIK/PROGRESS OF PHYSICS, Issue 2-3 2003J.A. Bergou Unambiguous discrimination among nonorthogonal but linearly independent quantum states is possible with a certain probability of success. Here, we consider a new variant of that problem. Instead of discriminating among all of the N different states, we now ask for less. We want to unambiguously assign the state to one of two complementary subsets of the set of N given non-orthogonal quantum states, each occurring with given a priori probabilities. We refer to the special case when one subset contains only one state and the other contains the remaining N -1 states as unambiguous quantum state filtering. We present an optimal analytical solution for the special case of N=3, and discuss the optimal strategy to unambiguously distinguish |,1, from the set {|,2,,|,3,}. For unambiguous filtering the subsets need not be linearly independent. We briefly discuss how to construct generalized interferometers (multiports) which provide a fully linear optical implementation of the optimal strategy. [source] Decisions from experience and statistical probabilities: Why they trigger different choices than a priori probabilitiesJOURNAL OF BEHAVIORAL DECISION MAKING, Issue 1 2010Robin Hau Abstract The distinction between risk and uncertainty is deeply entrenched in psychologists' and economists' thinking. Knight (1921), to whom it is frequently attributed, however, went beyond this dichotomy. Within the domain of risk, he set apart a priori and statistical probabilities, a distinction that maps onto that between decisions from description and experience, respectively. We argue this distinction is important because risky choices based on a priori (described) and statistical (experienced) probabilities can substantially diverge. To understand why, we examine various possible contributing factors to the description,experience gap. We find that payoff variability and memory limitations play only a small role in the emergence of the gap. In contrast, the presence of rare events and their representation as either natural frequencies in decisions from experience or single-event probabilities in decisions from description appear relevant for the gap. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Accuracy of Spirometry in Diagnosing Pulmonary Restriction in Elderly PeopleJOURNAL OF AMERICAN GERIATRICS SOCIETY, Issue 11 2009Simone Scarlata MD OBJECTIVES: To compare the accuracy of a diagnosis of pulmonary restriction made using forced vital capacity (FVC) less than the lower limit of normal (LLN) with the criterion standard diagnosis made using total lung capacity (TLC) less than the LLN in an elderly population. DESIGN: Retrospective analysis. SETTING: A teaching hospital. PARTICIPANTS: Five hundred sixty-four ambulatory and acute care hospital patients aged 65 to 96 underwent complete pulmonary function evaluation. MEASUREMENTS: Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values (PPV, NPV) of diagnosis of pulmonary restriction defined as FVC less than the LLN were calculated in the overall sample and after stratification according to bronchial obstruction. Expected PPV and NPV at different background prevalence of true pulmonary restriction (5% and 15%) were calculated using the Bayes theorem. RESULTS: Low sensitivity (0.32) and high specificity (0.95) were found, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.89. In participants without bronchial obstruction, specificity was even higher, although sensitivity decreased to 0.28 (AUC=0.92). The PPV was good (0.81), whereas with a low to moderate a priori probability (prevalence from 5% to 15%) the NPV was fair (,0.89). CONCLUSION: A reduction in FVC below LLN cannot reliably identify true pulmonary restriction in elderly people, confirming previous findings in the adult population. Normal FVC, instead, can effectively exclude pulmonary restriction regardless of the presence of bronchial obstruction when the a priori probability is low or moderately high. [source] Logic of experiments in ecology: is pseudoreplication a pseudoissue?OIKOS, Issue 1 2001Lauri Oksanen Hurlbert divides experimental ecologist into ,those who do not see any need for dispersion (of replicated treatments and controls), and those who do recognize its importance and take whatever measures are necessary to achieve a good dose of it'. Experimental ecologists could also be divided into those who do not see any problems with sacrificing spatial and temporal scales in order to obtain replication, and those who understand that appropriate scale must always have priority over replication. If an experiment is conducted in a spatial or temporal scale, where the predictions of contesting hypotheses are convergent or ambiguous, no amount of technical impeccability can make the work instructive. Conversely, replication can always be obtained afterwards, by conducting more experiments with basically similar design in different areas and by using meta-analysis. This approach even reduces the sampling bias obtained if resources are allocated to a small number of well-replicated experiments. For a strict advocate of the hypothetico-deductive method, replication is unnecessary even as a matter of principle, unless the predicted response is so weak that random background noise is a plausible excuse for a discrepancy between predictions and results. By definition, a prediction is an ,all-statement', referring to all systems within a well-defined category. What applies to all must apply to any. Hence, choosing two systems and assigning them randomly to a treatment and a control is normally an adequate design for a deductive experiment. The strength of such experiments depends on the firmness of the predictions and their a priori probability of corroboration. Replication is but one of many ways of reducing this probability. Whether the experiment is replicated or not, inferential statistics should always be used, to enable the reader to judge how well the apparent patterns in samples reflect real patterns in statistical populations. The concept ,pseudoreplication' amounts to entirely unwarranted stigmatization of a reasonable way to test predictions referring to large-scale systems. [source] Precautionary rules for exotic trout aquaculture in fishless shallow lakes of Patagonia: minimizing impacts on the threatened hooded grebe (Podiceps gallardoi)AQUATIC CONSERVATION: MARINE AND FRESHWATER ECOSYSTEMS, Issue 1 2010Julio L. Lancelotti Abstract 1.Conflicts between habitat use and conservation are inherent to the management of wetlands. A major challenge for their management is to preserve habitat while addressing the demands from multiple users. In southern Patagonia (Argentina), a growing aquaculture activity based on rainbow trout introductions in shallow lakes is generating concerns about the effects on the waterbird fauna, including some endemic species. 2.Generalized linear models (GLM) were used to analyse data on the endemic hooded grebe (Podiceps gallardoi) collected over a diverse set of lakes to: (1) build presence-absence models as a function of environmental variables; (2) assess current and potential overlap with trout aquaculture; (3) explore the power of alternative lake assignment algorithms based on habitat variables to segregate critical habitat and aquaculture activities; and (4) explore the correlation between the probability of grebe presence and their abundance in given lakes. 3.Hooded grebe presence is clearly correlated with macrophyte cover, lake area, and water conductivity. Medium size lakes, with a combination of emerging macrophytes, adjacent to open water areas had the highest probability of both hooded grebe presence and abundance. 4.Different lake allocation scenarios are identified that could grant significant protection to hooded grebes without substantial losses for trout producers. The a priori probability to hold hooded grebe, assigned by the model based on lake characteristics, provides a tool that can be used by managing authorities to derive precautionary management rules to regulate aquaculture and to preserve primary hooded grebe habitat. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] The role of microarthropods in terrestrial decomposition: a meta-analysis of 40 years of litterbag studiesBIOLOGICAL REVIEWS, Issue 3 2009Christian Kampichler ABSTRACT Litterbags have been utilized in soil ecology for about 50 years. They are useful because they confine organic material and thus enable the study of decomposition dynamics (mass loss and/or nutrient loss through time, colonization by soil biota) in situ, i.e. under field conditions. Researchers can easily restrict or permit access to certain size classes of soil fauna to determine their contribution to litter mass loss by choosing adequate mesh size or applying specific biocides. In particular, the mesofauna has received much attention since it comprises two very abundant and diverse microarthropod groups, the Collembola (springtails) and Acari (mites). We comprehensively searched the literature from the mid-1960s to the end of 2005 for reports on litterbag experiments investigating the role of microarthropods in terrestrial decomposition. Thirty papers reporting 101 experiments satisfied our selection criteria and were included in the database. Our meta-analysis revealed that microarthropods have a moderate but significant effect on mass loss. We discuss in detail the interactions of the microarthropod effect with study characteristics such as experimental design (e.g. number of bags, duration of experiment), type of exposed organic matter, climatic zone and land use of the study site. No publication bias was detected; however, we noticed a significant decrease in the microarthropod effect with publication year, indicating that, in the first decades of litterbag use, soil zoologists may have studied "promising" sites with a higher a priori probability of positive microarthropod effects on litter mass loss. A general weakness is that the treatments differ not only with respect to the presence or absence of microarthropods, but also with regard to mesh size (small to exclude microarthropods, wide to permit their access) or presence (to exclude microarthropods) and absence (to permit their access) of an insecticide. Consequently, the difference between the decomposition rates in the treatments is not a pure microarthropod effect but will be influenced by the additive effects of mesh size and insecticide. The relative contribution of the "true" microarthropod effect remains unknown without additional treatments controlling for the differential mesh size/insecticide effect. A meta-analysis including only those studies using different mesh size and for which the data were corrected by subtracting an estimated mesh size effect based on data from the literature yielded a significantly negative microarthropod effect on litter decomposition. These results cast doubt on the widely accepted hypothesis that microarthropods generally exert a positive effect on litter mass loss. We conclude that after 40 years of litterbag studies our knowledge on the role of microarthropods in litter mass loss remains limited and that the inclusion of a third treatment in future studies is a promising way to retain litterbags as a meaningful tool of soil biological studies. [source] Until what age should glaucoma be monitored and/or treated?ACTA OPHTHALMOLOGICA, Issue 2009A novel index that facilitates clinical decision making Purpose To calculate for which combinations of age and perimetric disease stage (mean deviation [MD]) treated and untreated glaucoma patients are unlikely to become blind during lifetime. Methods The probability of dying without blindness was calculated using the age and gender adjusted life expectancy values from the Statistics Netherlands and the progression rates of treated and untreated glaucoma patients from the Early Manifest Glaucoma Trial and the Groningen Longitudinal Glaucoma Study. Absence of blindness was defined as an MD better than -20 dB. Because it is difficult - or even impossible , to determine someone's individual life expectancy and rate of progression accurately, patients were assumed to reach the 90th percentile of the adjusted life expectancy and to progress with the 90th percentile of the rate of progression, leaving an a priori probability of becoming blind during lifetime of 2.5%. Results If MD+0.8*age, with MD in dB and age in years, is larger than 59, treated male patients were unlikely to become blind during lifetime. For untreated male patients the cut-off value was 66, and for treated and untreated female patients 61 and 68 respectively. Conclusion With this novel index, MD+0.8*age, the intensity of glaucoma monitoring and/or treatment can be reduced well-founded in the ageing patient. The index can be applied to either the worse or the better eye, depending on what is considered acceptable or possible given limited resources. 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