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Presence Records (presence + record)

Distribution by Scientific Domains

Life Sciences	100%

Selected Abstracts

Can distribution models help refine inventory-based estimates of conservation priority?

DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS, Issue 4 2010
A case study in the Eastern Arc forests of Tanzania, Kenya
Abstract Aim, Data shortages mean that conservation priorities can be highly sensitive to historical patterns of exploration. Here, we investigate the potential of regionally focussed species distribution models to elucidate fine-scale patterns of richness, rarity and endemism. Location, Eastern Arc Mountains, Tanzania and Kenya. Methods, Generalized additive models and land cover data are used to estimate the distributions of 452 forest plant taxa (trees, lianas, shrubs and herbs). Presence records from a newly compiled database are regressed against environmental variables in a stepwise multimodel. Estimates of occurrence in forest patches are collated across target groups and analysed alongside inventory-based estimates of conservation priority. Results, Predicted richness is higher than observed richness, with the biggest disparities in regions that have had the least research. North Pare and Nguu in particular are predicted to be more important than the inventory data suggest. Environmental conditions in parts of Nguru could support as many range-restricted and endemic taxa as Uluguru, although realized niches are subject to unknown colonization histories. Concentrations of rare plants are especially high in the Usambaras, a pattern mediated in models by moisture indices, whilst overall richness is better explained by temperature gradients. Tree data dominate the botanical inventory; we find that priorities based on other growth forms might favour the mountains in a different order. Main conclusions, Distribution models can provide conservation planning with high-resolution estimates of richness in well-researched areas, and predictive estimates of conservation importance elsewhere. Spatial and taxonomic biases in the data are essential considerations, as is the spatial scale used for models. We caution that predictive estimates are most uncertain for the species of highest conservation concern, and advocate using models and targeted field assessments iteratively to refine our understanding of which areas should be prioritised for conservation. [source]

A PCA-based modelling technique for predicting environmental suitability for organisms from presence records

DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS, Issue 1-2 2001
M. P. Robertson
We present a correlative modelling technique that uses locality records (associated with species presence) and a set of predictor variables to produce a statistically justifiable probability response surface for a target species. The probability response surface indicates the suitability of each grid cell in a map for the target species in terms of the suite of predictor variables. The technique constructs a hyperspace for the target species using principal component axes derived from a principal components analysis performed on a training dataset. The training dataset comprises the values of the predictor variables associated with the localities where the species has been recorded as present. The origin of this hyperspace is taken to characterize the centre of the niche of the organism. All the localities (grid-cells) in the map region are then fitted into this hyperspace using the values of the predictor variables at these localities (the prediction dataset). The Euclidean distance from any locality to the origin of the hyperspace gives a measure of the ,centrality' of that locality in the hyperspace. These distances are used to derive probability values for each grid cell in the map region. The modelling technique was applied to bioclimatic data to predict bioclimatic suitability for three alien invasive plant species (Lantana camara L., Ricinus communis L. and Solanum mauritianum Scop.) in South Africa, Lesotho and Swaziland. The models were tested against independent test records by calculating area under the curve (AUC) values of receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves and kappa statistics. There was good agreement between the models and the independent test records. The pre-processing of climatic variable data to reduce the deleterious effects of multicollinearity, and the use of stopping rules to prevent overfitting of the models are important aspects of the modelling process. [source]

Can a large metropolis sustain complex herpetofauna communities?

ANIMAL CONSERVATION, Issue 5 2009
An analysis of the suitability of green space fragments in Rome
Abstract Urban areas are primary causes of species' range fragmentation and reduction. However, relatively few studies have attempted to describe the habitat variables influencing the diversity and conservation of amphibians and reptiles, particularly in Mediterranean Europe and in large metropolitan areas. We explored this broad conservation ecology problem by studying the richness and diversity patterns in relation to a suite of six independent habitat variables in Rome, one of the most ancient cities of the world. We considered all the green remnant areas (n=62) of Rome, ranging 1 to >1000 ha in size, which are interspersed within a sea of urbanized matrix. A total of 10 amphibian and 15 reptile species were studied. Their presence/absence patterns were assessed and the effects of the various habitat variables on each species were predicted by a logistic regression model. A total of 1261 presence records (404 amphibians and 857 reptiles) were analysed. Fragment size and wood size within each fragment did correlate significantly with the species richness of both amphibians and reptiles, and there was a clear threshold effect after 50 ha of wooded surface. The presence of water bodies positively affected the species distribution. One amphibian and three reptiles inhabited exclusively fragments >50 ha. The distance from the centre did not affect fragment species richness. The presence of most species of both amphibians and reptiles was positively influenced by the irregular versus circular shape of the wooded area. The legal protection of a given area did not influence the observed patterns but the total number of sheltered species. Overall, our study suggests that, in order to maintain the current diversity and population viability, it is necessary, in addition to water bodies' maintenance, to (1) preserve the wooded landscapes over 50 ha; (2) promote irregularly shaped increases in the wood surface; (3) maintain ecotonal boundaries. [source]

Detecting climate change induced range shifts: Where and how should we be looking?

AUSTRAL ECOLOGY, Issue 1 2006
LUKE P. SHOO
Abstract: Global climate warming is expected to cause systematic shifts in the distribution of species and consequently increase extinction risk. Conservation managers must be able to detect, measure and accurately predict range shifts in order to mitigate impacts on biodiversity. However, important responses to climate change may go unnoticed or be dismissed if we fail to collect sufficient baseline data and apply the most sensitive analytical tests. Here we use randomizations of a contemporary data set on rainforest birds of north-eastern Australia to quantify the sensitivity of three measures for assessing range shifts along altitudinal gradients. We find that smaller range shifts are detectable by analysing change in the mean altitude of presence records rather than upper or lower range boundaries. For a moderate survey effort of 96 surveys, measurements of change in the mean altitude of 34 species have the capacity to provide strong inference for a mean altitudinal range shift as small as 40 m across the species assemblage. We also show that range shifts measured at range boundaries can be potentially misleading when differences in sampling effort between contemporary and historical data sets are not taken into account. [source]