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Presidential Elections (presidential + elections)
Selected AbstractsRoll-Off at the Top of the Ballot: International Undervoting in American Presidential ElectionsPOLITICS & POLICY, Issue 4 2003Stephen Knack Every four years, more than two percent of voters fail to cast a valid vote in the U.S. presidential contest. The 2000 election highlighted the fact that many intended votes are voided because of voter confusion associated with complicated ballot designs or voting equipment. Using survey data, this study provides estimates of the proportion of voided presidential ballots that do not represent errors but rather intentional undervotes. Voters who are older, poorer, and who do not identify with either major party are more likely to intentionally refrain from casting a presidential vote. Differences between African-American and white voting patterns are very minor, implying that racial disparities in the rate of voided votes cannot be attributed to a stronger tendency among African-American voters to intentionally skip the presidential contest. [source] Elections: Personal Popularity in U.S. Presidential ElectionsPRESIDENTIAL STUDIES QUARTERLY, Issue 1 2004Martin P. Wattenberg A commonly held view is that presidential elections are largely personality contests, and that the candidate with the best-liked personality wins. But is this really the case? Based on a careful analysis of national survey data from the last 11 presidential elections, this article concludes that such a view is unfounded. The most personally popular candidate does not always win in the U.S.,indeed, in recent elections, the most personally popular candidate has generally lost. Much more central to candidate evaluations, and to who emerges victorious, are perceptions of candidates' stands on the issues. [source] Fiscal Policy and Presidential Elections: Update and ExtensionPRESIDENTIAL STUDIES QUARTERLY, Issue 2 2000ALFRED G. CUZÁN This article updates, deepens, and extends previous articles published in this journal on the relation between fiscal policy and presidential elections. It presents evidence that is consistent with the view that voters reward fiscal frugality and punish fiscal expansion. The relationship is robust with respect to economic conditions, presidential incumbency, number of consecutive terms in the White House by presidents of the same party, and war. An intriguing finding is that, when fiscal policy is controlled for, incumbency advantage practically disappears. It is hoped that these findings will stimulate more political scientists, especially students of the presidency, to pay more attention to the role of fiscal policy in presidential elections. [source] The Mobilization of Core Supporters: Campaigns, Turnout, and Electoral Composition in United States Presidential ElectionsAMERICAN JOURNAL OF POLITICAL SCIENCE, Issue 4 2005Thomas M. Holbrook Our objective is to investigate the relationship between presidential campaign activities and political mobilization in the states, with specific focus on the mobilization of core constituents. Using data on presidential campaign visits, presidential campaign media purchases, and party transfers to the states, we highlight some interesting mobilization patterns. First, voter turnout is positively influenced by presidential campaigns, though not by all campaign activities. Second, there is some evidence that campaigns have direct effects on the participation of core partisan groups. Finally, the ability of parties to mobilize their core groups has a strong effect on state electoral success that exists over and above the direct effect of campaign activity on electoral outcomes. All in all, we see the results as strong evidence that political mobilization in general and party transfers to the states in particular are an important component for understanding campaign effects in presidential elections. [source] DO STOCK RETURNS VARY WITH CAMPAIGN CONTRIBUTIONS?ECONOMICS & POLITICS, Issue 3 2010BUSH VS. I examine the relation between campaign contributions and stock returns during the Florida recount period of the 2000 presidential elections. Using the full population of publicly traded firms, I find an economically significant positive (negative) relation between pre-election campaign contributions to Bush (Gore) and stock returns during the 37-day election recount period. This relation exists for both the level and partisanship of contributions, and exists incrementally at both the firm and industry levels. These relations are robust to several different specifications, including alternative event windows that exclude the potentially confounding House/Senate races. The firm-level analysis is consistent with contributions being influence-motivated. [source] Gender-based voting in the parliamentary elections of 2007 in FinlandEUROPEAN JOURNAL OF POLITICAL RESEARCH, Issue 5 2010ANNE MARIA HOLLI In contrast to many other countries, the Finnish open-list proportional representation (PR) system with its mandatory preferential voting provides an opportunity to study gender-based voting empirically. Using the 2007 Finnish national election study, the article presents an analysis of the grounds for same-gender voting, including motivations related to descriptive and substantive dimensions of representation. None of the motivations is able to account men's higher propensity to vote for a candidate of their own gender. The motivations linked to securing the descriptive and substantive representation of one's own gender in politics play a more decisive part on women's vote choice of same-gender candidates. Voting for a same-gender candidate is connected to younger age among both women and men, while the propensity to vote for female candidates increases with support for the Social Democrats, the Greens and the Swedish People's Party. Finally, gender, party choice, and descriptive and substantive motivations seem to be related to gender-based voting for both parliamentary and presidential elections. [source] Development Section, April 2008GEOGRAPHY COMPASS (ELECTRONIC), Issue 3 2008Cheryl McEwan EDITORIAL It is a great privilege to serve as Editor for the Development section of Geography Compass. The journal is an exciting new venture in electronic publishing that aims to publish state-of-the-art peer-reviewed surveys of key contemporary issues in geographical scholarship. As the first Editor of this section, it is my responsibility to establish the key aims and innovations for this section of the journal. These include: publishing reviews of scholarship on topics of contemporary relevance that are accessible and useful to researchers, teachers, students and practitioners; developing the range of topics covered across the spectrum of development geography; helping to set agendas in development geography by identifying gaps in existing empirical and conceptual research; commissioning articles from both established and graduate/early career researchers who are working at the frontiers of development geography; and communicating the distinctiveness of Geography Compass. Part of this distinctiveness is in publishing articles that are both of scholarly excellence and accessible to a wide audience. The first volume of Geography Compass was published in 2007, covering a wide range of topics (e.g. migration, children, technology, grassroots women's organizations, civil society, biodiversity, tourism, inequality, agrarian change, participatory development, disability, spirituality) in a number of specific geographical areas (e.g. Africa/southern Africa, Caribbean, China, Peru). Forthcoming in 2008/2009 are articles on the Gambia, Latin America, the Philippines, Southeast Asia, Bangladesh and South Africa, focusing on topics such as food security, comparative post-socialism, foreign aid and fair trade. Building on these diverse and excellent articles, I plan to communicate the distinctiveness of Development in a number of ways. First, I encourage an ecumenical approach to the notion of ,development geography' and welcome contributions from scholars across a range of social science disciplines whose work would be useful to a geography audience. This is important, not least because both development and geography, in disciplinary terms, are largely European inventions. Many scholars in Latin America, Africa and Asia, for example, do not refer to themselves as either development specialists or geographers but are producing important research in areas of direct relevance to students and researchers of ,development geography'. As the first editions illustrate, I also seek to publish articles that reflect ,development' in its broadest sense, encompassing economic, (geo)political, social, cultural and environmental issues. 2008 will be an interesting year for development, with a number of important issues and events shaping discourse and policy. These include: the Beijing Olympics and increasing focus on China's role in international development; political change in a number of African countries (Kenya, Zimbabwe, South Africa); the US presidential elections and potential shifts in policy on climate change, trade and security; the impacts of the Bali roadmap on climate change in the current economic context; the increasing number of impoverished people in Asia (notably China and India), sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America (notably Brazil) that even the World Bank has acknowledged; the implications of the increasing role of philanthropic foundations (e.g. the Gates Foundation and those emerging in India and Russia) in international development. I hope to see some of these issues covered in this journal. Second, I am keen to break down the association between ,development' and parts of the world variously categorized as ,Third World', ,Global South' or ,Developing World' by publishing articles that cut across North and South, East and West. The intellectual and disciplinary practices within (Western) geography that separate those researching issues in the South and post-socialist contexts from those researching similar issues in advanced capitalist economies are, it seems, no longer sustainable or sensible. Moreover, while studies of transnational and ethical trade, neoliberalism, household economies and ,commodity chains', for example, incorporate a multitude of case studies from across the world, these tend to be understood through conceptual lenses that almost always have their theoretical antecedents in Western theorization. The notion of ,learning from' debates, policy and practice in other parts of the world is still relatively alien within the discipline. There are thus issues in how we research and teach ethically and responsibly in and about different parts of the world, and in which this journal might make a contribution. Third, and related, part of my responsibility is to ensure that Compass reflects the breadth of debate about ,development' by publishing articles written by a truly international range of scholars. This has proved to be a challenge to date, in part reflecting the newness of the journal and the difficulties posed by English language publication. However, an immediate aim is to publish the work and ideas of scholars based outside of Anglophone contexts, in the Global South and in post-socialist contexts, and to use international referees who are able to provide valuable commentaries on the articles. A longer-term aim is to also further internationalize the Editorial Board. Currently, one-third of the Editorial Board is non-UK and I plan to increase this to at least 50% in future. Fourth, I plan to ensure that the Development section takes full advantage of electronic publication and the opportunities this offers. Thus, while I am keen to retain a word limit in the interest of publishing accessible articles, the lack of constraint regarding page space enables authors to include a wide range of illustrative and other material that is impossible in print journals. I plan to encourage authors to make greater use of visual materials (maps, photographs/photo-essays, video, sound recordings, model simulations and datasets) alongside text as well as more innovative forms of presentation where this might be appropriate. Finally, in the coming year, I intend to work more closely with other Compass section Editors to realize the potential for fostering debate that cuts across subdisciplinary and even disciplinary boundaries. The journal publishes across the full spectrum of the discipline and there is thus scope for publishing articles and/or special issues on development-related topics that might best be approached through dialogue between the natural and social sciences. Such topics might include resources (e.g. water, oil, bio-fuels), hazard and risk (from environmental issues to human and state security), and sustainability and quality of life (planned for 2008). Part of the distinctiveness of Compass is that electronic-only publication ensures that articles are published in relatively quick time , in some cases less than 3 months from initial submission to publication. It thus provides an important outlet for researchers working in fast-changing contexts and for those, such as graduate and early-career researchers, who might require swift publication for career purposes. Of course, as Editor I am reliant on referees both engaging with Manuscript Central and providing reports on articles in a relatively short space of time to fully expedite the process. My experience so far has been generally very positive and I would like to thank the referees for working within the spirit of the journal. Editing a journal is, of course, a collaborative and shared endeavour. The Development Editorial Board has been central to the successful launch of Development by working so generously to highlight topics and potential authors and to review articles; I would like to take this opportunity to thank Tony Bebbington, Reg Cline-Cole, Sara Kindon, Claire Mercer, Giles Mohan, Warwick Murray, Richa Nagar, Rob Potter, Saraswati Raju, Jonathan Rigg, Jenny Robinson and Alison Stenning. The Editors-in-Chief , Mike Bradshaw and Basil Gomez , have provided invaluable advice while adding humour (and colour) to the editorial process. Colleagues at Wiley-Blackwell have provided superb support, in particular, Helen Ashton who is constantly on hand to provide advice and assistance. I look forward to working closely with these people again in the coming year, as well as with the authors and readers who are vital to ensuring that Geography Compass fulfils its remit. [source] Changes in Korean Corporate Governance: A Response to CrisisJOURNAL OF APPLIED CORPORATE FINANCE, Issue 1 2008E. Han Kim In the last months of 1997, the value of the Korean currency lost over half its value against the dollar, and the ruling party was swept from power in presidential elections. One of the fundamental causes of this national economic crisis was the widespread failure of Korean companies to earn their cost of capital, which contributed to massive shareholder losses and calls for corporate governance reform. Among the worst performers, and hence the main targets of governance reform, were family-controlled Korean business groups known as chaebol. Besides pursuing growth and size at the expense of value, such groups were notorious for expropriating minority shareholders through "tunneling" activities and other means. The reform measures introduced by the new administration were a mix of market-based solutions and government intervention. The government-engineered, large-scale swaps of business units among the largest chaebol,the so-called "big deals" that were designed to force each of the groups to identify and specialize in a core business,turned out to be failures, with serious unwanted side effects. At the same time, however, new laws and regulations designed to increase corporate transparency, oversight, and accountability have had clearly positive effects on Korean governance. Thanks to reductions in barriers to foreign ownership of Korean companies, such ownership had risen to about 37% at the end of 2006, up from just 13% ten years earlier. And in addition to the growing pressure for better governance from foreign investors, several newly formed Korean NGOs have pushed for increased transparency and accountability, particularly among the largest chaebol. The best governance practices in Korea today can be seen mainly in three kinds of corporations: (1) newly privatized companies; (2) large corporations run by professional management; and (3) banks with substantial equity ownership in the hands of foreign investors. The improvements in governance achieved by such companies,notably, fuller disclosure, better alignment of managerial incentives with shareholder value, and more effective oversight by boards,have enabled many of them to meet the global standard. And the governance policies and procedures of POSCO, the first Korean company to list on the New York Stock Exchange,as well as the recent recipient of a large equity investment by Warren Buffett,are held up as a model of best practice. At the other end of the Korean governance spectrum, however, there continue to be many large chaebol-affiliated or family-run companies that have resisted such reforms. And aided by the popular resistance to globalization, the lobbying efforts of such firms have succeeded not only in reducing the momentum of the Korean governance reform movement, but in reversing some of the previous gains. Most disturbing is the current push to allow American style anti-takeover devices, which, if successful, would weaken the disciplinary effect of the market for corporate control. [source] Party loyalty as habit formationJOURNAL OF APPLIED ECONOMETRICS, Issue 3 2003Ron Shachar In most democracies, at least two out of any three individuals vote for the same party in sequential elections. This paper presents a model in which vote-persistence is partly due to the dependence of the utility on the previous voting decision. This dependence is termed ,habit formation'. The model and its implications are supported by individual-level panel data on the presidential elections in the USA in 1972 and 1976. For example, it is found that the voting probability is a function of the lagged choice variable, even when the endogeneity of the lagged variable is accounted for, and that the tendency to vote for different parties in sequential elections decreased with the age of the voter. Furthermore, using structural estimation the effect of habit is estimated, while allowing unobserved differences among respondents. The structural habit parameter implies that the effect of previous votes on the current decision is quite strong. The habit model fits the data better than the traditional ,party identification' model. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Taking Television Seriously: A Sound and Image Bite Analysis of Presidential Campaign Coverage, 1992,2004JOURNAL OF COMMUNICATION, Issue 4 2007Erik P. Bucy This study updates and builds on Hallin's landmark investigation of sound-bite news by documenting the prevalence of candidate image bites, where candidates are shown but not heard (as opposed to being shown and heard), in general election news over 4 election cycles. A visual analysis of broadcast network (ABC, CBS, and NBC) news coverage of the 1992, 1996, 2000, and 2004 U.S. presidential elections finds that image bites constituted a greater percentage of total campaign coverage than sound bites, with candidates appearing in image bites significantly more than sound bites. Even as candidate sound bites continue to shrink over time, image-bite time is increasing in duration,and candidates are being presented in image bites almost twice as much as journalists. Sound bites are also found to be largely attack and issue focused. Based on these findings, we call for greater appreciation of visual processing, nonverbal communication, and voter learning from television news in the study of media and politics. Résumé Prendre la télévision au sérieux : Une analyse des clips sonores et visuels de la couverture des campagnes électorales présidentielles, 1992-2004 Cette étude met à jour et raffine l,enquête qu'avait faite Hallin sur les clips sonores d,actualités en documentant la prévalence des clips visuels des candidats, dans lesquels ceux-ci sont montrés mais non entendus (par opposition àêtre montrés et entendus), dans les bulletins d'information sur les élections générales au travers de quatre cycles électoraux. Une analyse visuelle de la couverture par les bulletins d,information des réseaux de télédiffusion (ABC, CBS et NBC) des élections présidentielles américaines de 1992, 1996, 2000 et 2004 démontre que les clips visuels ont constitué un plus grand pourcentage de la couverture électorale totale que les clips sonores, les candidats apparaissant plus fréquemment (de façon significative) dans les clips visuels que dans les clips sonores. Alors que les clips sonores des candidats ne cessent de raccourcir au fil du temps, la durée des clips visuels augmente , et les candidats sont présentés dans des clips visuels dans une proportion presque deux fois plus grande que les journalistes. L'étude démontre également que les clips sonores sont largement centrés sur les attaques et les enjeux. D'après ces résultats, nous réclamons une plus grande compréhension du traitement visuel, de la communication non verbale et de l,apprentissage que font les électeurs à partir des bulletins de nouvelles, dans l'étude des médias et de la politique. Abstract Fernsehen ernst nehmen: Eine Analyse der Sound und Bild Bites der Präsidentschaftskampagnenberichterstattung 1992-2004 Diese Untersuchung basiert auf und erweitert die zentrale Studie von Hallin zu Sound Bite Nachrichten, indem sie über 4 Wahlzyklen hinweg die Verbreitung von Kandidaten Bild Bites dokumentiert. Bild Bites sind dabei Nachrichtenteile, in denen die Kandidaten zwar sichtbar, aber nicht hörbar sind (im Gegensatz zu sichtbar und hörbar). Eine visuelle Analyse der Nachrichtenberichterstattung zu den Präsidentschaftswahlen von 1992, 1996, 2000 und 2004 auf ABC, CBS und NBC zeigte, dass Bild Bites einen größeren Anteil der Kampagnengesamtberichterstattung ausmachen als Sound Bites, und dass die Kandidaten signifikant häufiger in Bild Bites erscheinen als in Sound Bites. Auch wenn die Zahl der Sound Bites der Kandidaten über die Jahre hinweg abnahmen, nehmen die Bild Bites in diesem Zeitraum zu - und Kandidaten werden in Bild Bites fast doppelt so oft gezeigt wie Journalisten. Sound Bites konzentrieren sich inhaltlich außerdem eher auf Angriffe und Themen. Basierend auf diesen Ergebnissen, fordern wir eine Konzentration auf die Untersuchung von visueller Verarbeitung, nonverbaler Kommunikation und dem Aspekt des Lernens von Fernsehnachrichten in der Erforschung von Medien und Politik. Resumen Tomando a la Televisión Seriamente: Un Análisis de los fragmentos de Sonido e Imagen de la Cobertura de Campañas Presidenciales, 1992-2004 Este estudio actualiza y extiende la investigación pionera de Hallin sobre los fragmentos de sonidos de noticias a través de la documentación de la prevalencia de las imágenes fragmentadas de los candidatos, en las cuales los candidatos fueron mostrados pero no escuchados (en vez de ser mostrados y escuchados), en las noticias de las elecciones generales durante 4 ciclos electivos. Un análisis visual de la cobertura de noticias de las redes de televisión (ABC, CBS, y NBC) y de las elecciones presidenciales de los Estados Unidos de 1992, 1996, 2000, y 2004 encontró que los fragmentos de imágenes, más que los de los sonidos, constituían un gran porcentaje de la cobertura total de la campaña, con los candidatos apareciendo más significativamente en los fragmentos de imágenes que en los fragmentos de sonido. Aún cuando los fragmentos de sonidos de los candidatos continúan reduciéndose a través del tiempo, el tiempo del fragmento de la imagen está incrementando en duración-y los candidatos son presentados en fragmentos de imágenes casi dos veces más que los periodistas. Los fragmentos de sonido, en su mayoría, se enfocan en ataques y asuntos. Basados en estos resultados, hacemos un llamado a la apreciación del procesamiento visual, de la comunicación no-verbal, y del aprendizaje del votante por medio de las noticias televisivas en el estudio de los medios y la política. ZhaiYao Yo yak [source] Invitations for Partisan Identification: Attempts to Court Latino Voters Through Televised Latino-Oriented Political Advertisements, 1984,2000JOURNAL OF COMMUNICATION, Issue 1 2004Stacey L. Connaughton By the year 2050, Latinos will represent the dominant ethnic minority in the United States, and researchers are just beginning to examine the campaign messages targeted to this voting bloc. This article employs identification theory to understand the rhetorical approaches used in campaign advertisements designed for these voters. Through a content analysis of campaign spots targeted to Latinos over four presidential elections (1984, 1988, 1996, 2000), we find that the invitations for party identification sent to this group tend to be positive, focus on the Latino (not the candidate), and depict Latinos as an emergent force in American politics. In trying to foster identification from this desirable voting population, it appears that campaign forces encourage Latinos to view themselves, and politics, as valuable and consequential,a marked alternative to most advertising strategies at the close of the 20th century. [source] Leadership quality and follower affect: A study of U.S. presidential candidatesJOURNAL OF LEADERSHIP STUDIES, Issue 4 2008M. David Albritton Using the tripartite model of attitude structure as a conceptual basis, this article investigates voter attitudes toward presidential candidates, including cognitive and affective assessments of these leaders as well as behavioral intentions and voting behavior. Data collected from the seven most recent U.S. presidential elections were used to compare Democratic and Republican Party candidates who were successful in securing votes to those who were unsuccessful. Here, follower perceptions of leader intelligence, feelings of pride and hope, as well as feelings of fear and anger were found to be statistically different between the two groups. Additionally, regression analysis using follower assessments of candidates' leadership quality, as dependent upon certain perceptual traits of that leader, are presented. Candidates perceived to be higher in intelligence, considered to possess stronger degrees of inspirational quality, and judged more "likeable," in terms of generating stronger degrees of positive follower affect and lower degrees of negative follower affect, are considered better quality leaders. Followers' perceptions of these traits are found to be key predictors of whether that follower will consider a leader to be of high quality. [source] Latin America's Neocaudillismo: Ex-Presidents and Newcomers Running for President, and WinningLATIN AMERICAN POLITICS AND SOCIETY, Issue 3 2008Javier Corrales ABSTRACT Latin Americans have been voting for a surprisingly large number of ex-presidents and newcomers in presidential elections since the late 1980s. This article looks at both the demand and supply sides of this phenomenon by focusing on economic anxieties and party crises as the key independent variables. Sometimes the relationship between these variables is linear: economic anxieties combined with party crises lead to rising ex-presidents and newcomers. At other times the relationship is symbiotic: the rise of ex-presidents leads to party crises, economic and political anxieties, and thus the rise of newcomers. This article concludes that the abundance of ex-presidents and newcomers in elections,essentially, the new face of Latin America's caudillismo,does not bode well for democracy because it accelerates de-institutionalization and polarizes the electorate. [source] Liberal and Illiberal Democracy in Latin AmericaLATIN AMERICAN POLITICS AND SOCIETY, Issue 1 2008Peter H. Smith ABSTRACT This article examines the incidence of liberal and "illiberal" democracy in Latin America from 1978 through 2004. It demonstrates, first, that illiberal democracy,which combines free and fair elections with systematic constraints on citizens'rights,became the norm throughout the region. Second, it shows that regime transitions most often ended not in liberal democracy but in illiberal democracy. Third, rare events logit analysis reveals that two variables, hyperinflation and presidential elections, had significant impact on movement toward fuller democracy. As a form of short-term economic shock, hyperinflation generates widespread discontent; given the opportunity to vote, citizens elect reformist opposition candidates who, once in office, remove controls on civil liberties. This scenario substantially increases the likelihood of transition from illiberal to liberal democracy. [source] Comparing the Power of Korean and American Presidents: An Institutional PerspectivePACIFIC FOCUS, Issue 1 2004Jaechun Kim Many observers of Korean politics have worried that the Korean president has wielded lopsided leverage over other political actors and institutions. By comparing "constitutional" and "para-constitutional" features of the Korean and American political systems, this paper assesses the reasons that the Korean presidency has enjoyed overwhelming advantage. Assessment of constitutionally prescribed presidential powers,both legislative and non-legislative,indicates that, compared to the American president, the Korean counterpart possesses strong leverage over the legislature. This paper also suggests that such para-constitutional features of the Korean political system such as 'winner-take-all" and the ,plebiscitary' nature of the Korean presidential elections and strong party discipline have worked to the advantage of the Korean president. Although no analysis of the political system will be complete without the examination of "contextual" and "ecological" factors indigenous to that system, "institutional" analysis of this paper suggests that Korean politics may move toward a more advanced stage of democracy through adjusting some of the basic institutional arrangements of the country. [source] Contextual Sources of AmbivalencePOLITICAL PSYCHOLOGY, Issue 5 2008Luke Keele When will people become ambivalent about politics? One possibility is that the roots of ambivalence lie within the individual, with differences in political knowledge and attitude strength predicting whether a person internalizes the conflicts of politics. Alternately, attitudinal ambivalence could result from structural differences in the way political choices are presented in the wider political environment. We explore the degree to which different environments promote or limit ambivalence using a matching approach in conjunction with a set of multilevel models. We find that campaign environments can induce candidate ambivalence. In presidential elections, campaign efforts promote ambivalence most when competition between partisan campaign efforts is high. In House elections, campaign spending has a direct effect on levels of candidate ambivalence, where a candidate's spending decreases ambivalence about that candidate and increases ambivalence about opponents. [source] Critical Elections and Political Realignments in the USA: 1860,2000POLITICAL STUDIES, Issue 2 2003Norman Schofield The sequence of US presidential elections from 1964 to 1972 is generally regarded as heralding a fundamental political realignment, during which time civil rights became as important a cleavage as economic rights. In certain respects, this realignment mirrored the transformation of politics that occurred in the period before the Civil War. Formal models of voting (based on assumptions of rational voters, and plurality-maximizing candidates) have typically been unable to provide an account of such realignments. In this paper, we propose that US politics necessarily involves two dimensions of policy. Whatever positions US presidential candidates adopt, there will always be two groups of disaffected voters. Such voters may be mobilized by third party candidates, and may eventually be absorbed into one or other of the two dominant party coalitions. The policy compromise, or change, required of the successful presidential candidate then triggers the political realignment. A formal activist-voter model is presented, as a first step in understanding such a dynamic equilibrium between parties and voters. [source] The Reagan Democrat Phenomenon: How Wise Was the Conventional Wisdom?POLITICS & POLICY, Issue 4 2005Julio Borquez This article examines vote defection by white Democrats in the presidential elections of 1980,1988 and reconsiders the foundations of the "Reagan Democrat" phenomenon. The conventional wisdom has been that the defection of Reagan Democrats was motivated by conservative policy preferences, especially on race and redistribution. National Election Study data from 1980,1988 are used to test a multivariate model of vote choice. In 1980 and 1984, Democratic defectors were much more influenced by performance assessments than by policy preferences. Contrary to the prevailing storyline, Reagan Democrats were not voting to endorse a conservative policy agenda, but were more generally punishing Jimmy Carter in 1980 for poor performance in office and rewarding Ronald Reagan in 1984 for a job well done. Racial policy was a more potent influence on defection in 1988. [source] Superpresidentialism and the Military: The Russian VariantPRESIDENTIAL STUDIES QUARTERLY, Issue 1 2008ZOLTAN BARANY This article explains the evolution of the presidential-military nexus in post-Soviet Russia. Why has the role of presidents become the overriding factor in Russian civil-military relations? What explains the differences between the relationships Russia's two post-Soviet presidents, Boris Yeltsin and Vladimir Putin, developed with the armed forces? I argue that following the 1993 crisis between the president and the legislature, and even more so after the 1996 presidential elections, the Russian polity has gradually become a superpresidential authoritarian system and the type of executive-military relations that has evolved is consistent with this designation. Rather than establishing civilian oversight of the armed forces shared between the legislative and the executive branches, Yeltsin and Putin created a state in which civilian control has become synonymous with presidential control. [source] Elections: Personal Popularity in U.S. Presidential ElectionsPRESIDENTIAL STUDIES QUARTERLY, Issue 1 2004Martin P. Wattenberg A commonly held view is that presidential elections are largely personality contests, and that the candidate with the best-liked personality wins. But is this really the case? Based on a careful analysis of national survey data from the last 11 presidential elections, this article concludes that such a view is unfounded. The most personally popular candidate does not always win in the U.S.,indeed, in recent elections, the most personally popular candidate has generally lost. Much more central to candidate evaluations, and to who emerges victorious, are perceptions of candidates' stands on the issues. [source] Fiscal Policy and Presidential Elections: Update and ExtensionPRESIDENTIAL STUDIES QUARTERLY, Issue 2 2000ALFRED G. CUZÁN This article updates, deepens, and extends previous articles published in this journal on the relation between fiscal policy and presidential elections. It presents evidence that is consistent with the view that voters reward fiscal frugality and punish fiscal expansion. The relationship is robust with respect to economic conditions, presidential incumbency, number of consecutive terms in the White House by presidents of the same party, and war. An intriguing finding is that, when fiscal policy is controlled for, incumbency advantage practically disappears. It is hoped that these findings will stimulate more political scientists, especially students of the presidency, to pay more attention to the role of fiscal policy in presidential elections. [source] Memoirs of an indifferent trader: Estimating forecast distributions from prediction marketsQUANTITATIVE ECONOMICS, Issue 1 2010Joyce E. Berg C11; C93; D8; G1 Prediction markets for future events are increasingly common and they often trade several contracts for the same event. This paper considers the distribution of a normative risk-neutral trader who, given any portfolio of contracts traded on the event, would choose not to reallocate that portfolio of contracts even if transactions costs were zero. Because common parametric distributions can conflict with observed prediction market prices, the distribution is given a nonparametric representation together with a prior distribution favoring smooth and concentrated distributions. Posterior modal distributions are found for popular vote shares of the U.S. presidential candidates in the 100 days leading up to the elections of 1992, 1996, 2000, and 2004, using bid and ask prices on multiple contracts from the Iowa Electronic Markets. On some days, the distributions are multimodal or substantially asymmetric. The derived distributions are more concentrated than the historical distribution of popular vote shares in presidential elections, but do not tend to become more concentrated as time to elections diminishes. [source] Presidential and Congressional Vote-Share EquationsAMERICAN JOURNAL OF POLITICAL SCIENCE, Issue 1 2009Ray C. Fair Three vote-share equations are estimated and analyzed in this article, one for presidential elections, one for on-term House elections, and one for midterm House elections. The sample period is 1916,2006. Considering the three equations together allows one to test whether the same economic variables affect each and to examine various serial correlation and coattail possibilities. The main conclusions are (1) there is strong evidence that the economy affects all three vote shares and in remarkably similar ways; (2) there is no evidence of any presidential coattail effects on the on-term House elections; (3) there is positive serial correlation in the House vote, which likely reflects a positive incumbency effect for elected representatives; and (4) the presidential vote share has a negative effect on the next midterm House vote share, which is likely explained by a balance argument. [source] Presidential Coattails and Legislative FragmentationAMERICAN JOURNAL OF POLITICAL SCIENCE, Issue 1 2006Matt Golder Considerable evidence suggests that legislative fragmentation can negatively affect the survival of democratic presidential regimes. While there is a vast literature examining the determinants of legislative fragmentation, one factor that has traditionally been overlooked is the impact of presidential elections. Do presidential elections increase or decrease legislative fragmentation? Does it matter if presidents are elected by plurality rule or by runoff? Using a new dataset that covers all democratic legislative and presidential elections between 1946 and 2000, I find that presidential coattails can reduce, increase, or have no effect on legislative fragmentation depending on the number of presidential candidates. I also find strong evidence that social heterogeneity increases the number of presidential candidates when runoff systems are employed. Taken together, these results suggest that the widespread adoption of runoffs by newly democratic presidential regimes will likely increase legislative fragmentation, thereby putting their democratic survival at increased risk. [source] The Mobilization of Core Supporters: Campaigns, Turnout, and Electoral Composition in United States Presidential ElectionsAMERICAN JOURNAL OF POLITICAL SCIENCE, Issue 4 2005Thomas M. Holbrook Our objective is to investigate the relationship between presidential campaign activities and political mobilization in the states, with specific focus on the mobilization of core constituents. Using data on presidential campaign visits, presidential campaign media purchases, and party transfers to the states, we highlight some interesting mobilization patterns. First, voter turnout is positively influenced by presidential campaigns, though not by all campaign activities. Second, there is some evidence that campaigns have direct effects on the participation of core partisan groups. Finally, the ability of parties to mobilize their core groups has a strong effect on state electoral success that exists over and above the direct effect of campaign activity on electoral outcomes. All in all, we see the results as strong evidence that political mobilization in general and party transfers to the states in particular are an important component for understanding campaign effects in presidential elections. [source] Lessons of Defeat: A Comparison of Taiwanese Ruling Parties' Responses to Electoral DefeatASIAN POLITICS AND POLICY, Issue 4 2009Dafydd Fell In the last decade Taiwan has witnessed two changes in ruling party through elections. First, in 2000 the Kuomintang (KMT) was defeated by the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in the presidential election. Then after eight years of DPP rule, the KMT regained control of central government in the parliamentary and presidential elections of 2008. This study compares the two parties' reactions to disastrous defeat. Have the parties learned the lessons of defeat by responding with rational reforms? In addition to this comparison, I assess the effectiveness of the KMT's reforms in contributing to its return to power. Although the DPP's fall from power is only just over a year old, this study can offer some insights into whether one can expect the DPP to recover sufficiently to offer a serious political challenge to KMT domination. [source] Argentina's Landmark 2003 Presidential Election: Renewal and ContinuityBULLETIN OF LATIN AMERICAN RESEARCH, Issue 4 2005Omar Sanchez This article provides an analysis of the political and socioeconomic context of the April 2003 presidential elections, focusing particularly on the campaign platforms of candidates, the outcome of the first round and the election's consequences for the party system. The election's results were far reaching in many respects. Argentina's longstanding two-party system came to an end with the virtual vanishing of the Radical party (UCR) at the national level. An evolved political culture resulted in new, more rigorous criteria for the selection of candidates. Finally, new political parties (MNR and ARI) emerged that could conceivably improve the quality of democratic governance in the future. In short, the 2001,2002 crisis fostered a significant degree of political renewal. Contrary to some predictions, however, the societal rejection of political parties did not result in either the complete demolition of the party system or the wholesale renovation of the political class. In particular, the Peronist party showcased its staying power and uncanny ability to adapt to new political environments. [source] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||