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Predicting
Terms modified by Predicting Selected AbstractsDeterminants for the successful establishment of exotic ants in New ZealandDIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS, Issue 4 2005Philip J. Lester ABSTRACT Biological invasions can dramatically alter ecosystems. An ability to predict the establishment success for exotic species is important for biosecurity and conservation purposes. I examine the exotic New Zealand ant fauna for characteristics that predict or determine an exotic species' ability to establish. Quarantine records show interceptions of 66 ant species: 17 of which have established, 43 have failed to establish, whereas nests of another six are periodically observed but have failed to establish permanently (called ,ephemeral' establishment). Mean temperature at the highest latitude and interception variables were the only factors significantly different between established, failed or ephemeral groups. Aspects of life history, such as competitive behaviour and morphology, were not different between groups. However, in a stepwise discriminant analysis, small size was a key factor influencing establishment success. Interception rate and climate were also secondarily important. The resulting classification table predicted establishment success with 71% accuracy. Because not all exotic species are represented in quarantine records, a further discriminant model is described without interception data. Though with less accuracy (65%) than the full model, it still correctly predicted the success or failure of four species not used in the previous analysis. Techniques for improving the prediction accuracy are discussed. Predicting which species will establish in a new area appears an achievable goal, which will be a valuable tool for conservation biology. [source] A Two-Factor Model for Predicting When a Couple Will Divorce: Exploratory Analyses Using 14-Year Longitudinal Data,FAMILY PROCESS, Issue 1 2002John Mordechai Gottman Ph.D. This article examines 14-year longitudinal data and attempts to create a post hoc model that uses Time-1 data to "predict" the length of time the marriage will last. The sample consists of the 21 couples (of 79 studied) who divorced over a 14-year period. A two-factor model is proposed. One factor is the amount of unregulated volatile positive and negative affect in the marriage, and this factor predicts a short marriage length for the divorcing couples. A second factor is called "neutral affective style," and this factor predicts a long marriage length for the divorcing couples. This model is compared to a Time-1 model of ailing marriage in which Time-1 marital satisfaction is used to predict the timing of divorce. [source] Predicting and quantifying the structure of tropical dry forests in South Florida and the Neotropics using spaceborne imageryGLOBAL ECOLOGY, Issue 3 2006Thomas W. Gillespie ABSTRACT Aim, This research examines environmental theories and remote sensing methods that have been hypothesized to be associated with tropical dry forest structure. Location, Tropical dry forests of South Florida and the Neotropics. Methods, Field measurements of stand density, basal area and tree height were collected from 22 stands in South Florida and 30 stands in the Neotropics. In South Florida, field measurements were compared to climatic (temperature, precipitation, hurricane disturbance) and edaphic (rockiness, soil depth) variables, spectral indices (NDVI, IRI, MIRI) from Landsat 7 ETM+, and estimates of tree height from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) and the National Elevation Dataset (NED). Environmental variables associated with tropical dry forest structure in South Florida were compared to tropical dry forest in other Neotropical sites. Results, There were significant correlations among temperature and precipitation, and stand density and tree height in South Florida. There were significant correlations between (i) stand density and mean NDVI and standard deviation of NDVI, (ii) MIRI and stand density, basal area and mean tree height, and (iii) estimates of tree height from SRTM with maximum tree height. In the Neotropics, there were no relationships between temperature or precipitation and tropical dry forest structure, however, Neotropical sites that experience hurricane disturbance had significantly shorter tree heights and higher stand densities. Main conclusions, It is possible to predict and quantify the forest structure characteristics of tropical dry forests using climatic data, Landsat 7 ETM+ imagery and SRTM data in South Florida. However, results based on climatic data are region-specific and not necessarily transferable between tropical dry forests at a continental spatial scale. Spectral indices from Landsat 7 ETM+ can be used to quantify forest structure characteristics, but SRTM data are currently not transferable to other regions. Hurricane disturbance has a significant impact on forest structure in the Neotropics. [source] Predicting 5-fluorouracil chemosensitivity of liver metastases from colorectal cancer using primary tumor specimens: Three-gene expression model predicts clinical responseINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CANCER, Issue 2 2006Ryusei Matsuyama Abstract We identified genes related to 5-fluorouracil (5-FU) sensitivity in colorectal cancer and utilized these genes for predicting the 5-FU sensitivity of liver metastases. Eighty-one candidate genes involved in 5-FU resistance in gastric and colon cancer cell lines were previously identified using a cDNA microarray. In this study, the mRNA expression levels of these 81 selected genes and the genes of 5-FU-related enzymes, including thymidylate synthase (TS), dihydropyrimidine dehydrogenase (DPD) and orotate phosphoribosyltransferase (OPRT), were measured using real-time quantitative RT-PCR assays of surgically resected materials from primary colorectal tumors in 22 patients. Clinical responses were estimated by evaluating the effects of 5-FU-based hepatic artery injection (HAI) chemotherapy for synchronous liver metastases. Four genes (TNFRSF1B, SLC35F5, NAG-1 and OPRT) had significantly different expression profiles in 5-FU-nonresponding and responding tumors (p < 0.05). A "Response Index" system using three genes (TNFRSF1B, SLC35F5 and OPRT) was then developed using a discriminate analysis; the results were well correlated with the individual chemosensitivities. Among the 11 cases with positive scores in our response index, 9 achieved a reduction in their liver metastases after 5-FU-based chemotherapy, whereas only 1 of the 11 cases with negative scores responded well to chemotherapy. Our "Response Index" system, consisting of TNFRSF1B, SLC35F5 and OPRT, has great potential for predicting the efficacy of 5-FU-based chemotherapy against liver metastases from colorectal cancer. © 2006 Wiley-Liss, Inc. [source] Predicting needs for nursing home admission , does sense of coherence delay nursing home admission in care dependent older people?INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF OLDER PEOPLE NURSING, Issue 1 2009A longitudinal study Objectives., This study examined predisposing, enabling and need variables (Andersen's Behavioral Model) influencing the need for nursing home admission (NHA) in older people receiving home nursing care. In particular, the potential role of coping ability, measured as ,sense of coherence' (SOC), was studied. Design, sample, and measurements., A survey with baseline- and follow-up data after a 2-year period was undertaken with 208 patients aged 75+. The measures used were: gender, education, age, social visits, SOC, social provision scale (SPS), self-rated health (SRH), general health questionnaire (GHQ), clinical dementia rating (CDR), Barthel activities of daily living (ADL) index, and registered illnesses (RI). A Cox proportional model was used to examine factors that could explain risk of NHA. Results., Measures with predictive properties were Barthel ADL index, SPS, SRH, and gender. SOC, along with subjective health complaints, general health questionnaire, RI and social visits did not predict NHA. Conclusions., It is concluded that the patients' subjective evaluations of both their health and perceived social support were important predictors of future NHA needs, and should be seriously taken into consideration, along with the more commonly used objective measures of ADL and CDR. [source] Predicting and managing the effects of hypersalinity on the fish community in solar salt fields in north-western AustraliaJOURNAL OF APPLIED ICHTHYOLOGY, Issue 2 2006B. W. Molony Summary Five concentrator ponds (CPs) of a solar salt field in Port Hedland, Western Australia were sampled by seine and gill nets over a 12-month period in order to describe the fish community and examine relationships between diversity, abundance and catch per unit effort (CPUE) with salinity. Salinity varied between 40.2 and 113.7, during the sampling period. Forty-one species of fishes were recorded from the CPs, with fewer species recorded from CPs of higher salinity. A significant inverse relationship was identified between salinity and the number of species (diversity) captured in gill nets, indicating that one species is lost with every 16, increase in salinity. A significant relationship between salinity and CPUE was also identified with gill-net samples, indicating a reduction of 1 kg h,1 with every increase in salinity of 5.5,. As CPs are connected by one-way flaps, fish movements are only possible into CPs of higher salinity. Thus, reductions in diversity, abundance and CPUE suggested fish mortalities, likely as a result of maximum or rapidly changing salinities exceeding the tolerance ability of individual species. As fish kills are not infrequent events in solar salt fields and result in economic losses due to loss of production and clean-up costs, the results may allow managers to identify high risk species and times of year of fish kills by using salinity measurements. Commercial, indigenous and/or recreational fishing opportunities are viable options for reducing fish biomasses within the CPs and are discussed. Although absolute salinity values were higher than those recorded from tropical Australian estuaries, salinity deviations within each CP are similar to other estuaries and the effect on the ichthyo-community is likely to be similar. [source] Variable reproductive effort for two ptarmigan species in response to spring weather in a northern alpine ecosystemJOURNAL OF AVIAN BIOLOGY, Issue 3 2010Scott Wilson Predicting how animal populations respond to climate change requires knowledge of how species traits influence the response of individuals to variation in anuual weather. Over a four-year study with two warm and two cold years, we examined how sympatric rock ptarmigan Lagopus muta and white-tailed ptarmigan L. leucura in the southern Yukon Territory respond to spring weather in terms of breeding phenology and the allocation of reproductive effort. The onset of breeding was approximately synchronous; for each one-degree rise in spring temperature, mean breeding dates of rock and white-tailed ptarmigan advanced by about 2.7 and 4 days respectively. Although onset of breeding was similar, the two species differed in their reproductive effort. As breeding was delayed, average first clutch sizes of rock ptarmigan declined from 9.4 to 5.8 eggs over the breeding period, while those of white-tailed ptarmigan only declined from an average of 7.8 to 6.8. Rock ptarmigan were also less likely to re-nest if their first clutch was lost to predators and as a consequence they had shorter breeding seasons. White-tailed ptarmigan produced about 25% more offspring annually than rock ptarmigan and contributed more young through re-nesting. While white-tailed ptarmigan had higher annual reproductive output, adult rock ptarmigan had a 20,25% higher annual survival rate, which may indicate a reproduction,survival trade-off for the two species. These results show that even within the same location, closely related species can differ in how they allocate effort as environmental conditions fluctuate. [source] Predicting Continued Participation in NewsgroupsJOURNAL OF COMPUTER-MEDIATED COMMUNICATION, Issue 3 2006Elisabeth Joyce Turnover in online communities is very high, with most people who initially post a message to an online community never contributing again. In this paper, we test whether the responses that newcomers receive to their first posts influence the extent to which they continue to participate. The data come from initial posts made by 2,777 newcomers to six public newsgroups. We coded the content and valence of the initial post and its first response, if it received one, to see if these factors influenced newcomers' likelihood of posting again. Approximately 61% of newcomers received a reply to their initial post, and those who got a reply were 12% more likely to post to the community again; their probability of posting again increased from 44% to 56%. They were more likely to receive a response if they asked a question or wrote a longer post. Surprisingly, the quality of the response they received,its emotional tone and whether it answered a newcomer's question,did not influence the likelihood of the newcomer's posting again. [source] Predicting and explaining the propensity to bid in online auctions: a comparison of two action-theoretical modelsJOURNAL OF CONSUMER BEHAVIOUR, Issue 2 2006Michael Bosnjak The literature on the willingness to bid and the actual bidding behaviour of consumers in online auctions is currently dominated by approaches based on the economic decision-making and information processing paradigm and are primarily focused on what influences auction outcomes. To the best of our knowledge, no serious attempts have been undertaken to stringently test and compare existing models derived from an action-theoretical perspective to predict and explain consumers´ propensity to use online auctions as well as their actual usage. Two theoretical models seem most promising in this context: The Theory of Planned Behaviour (Ajzen I, 1985, 1991) and a derivative of the Theory of Reasoned Action (Fishbein M and Ajzen I, 1975) tailored towards using computer technologies, the Technology Acceptance Model (Davis FD, 1989). In both theories, intentions play a central role in predicting behaviour. The models differ in their descriptions of the factors that determine behavioural intentions. In the Theory of Planned Behaviour, attitudes towards the behaviour, perceived behavioural control and subjective norms are assumed to influence intentions. In contrast, the Technology Acceptance Model suggests that intentions and attitudes are influenced by the perceived usefulness of a certain technological tool to improve shopping productivity (e.g. by enabling the consumer to obtain a better price or save time) and the tools´ perceived ease of use. In principle, both theories can be used to predict and explain technology-dependent consumer behaviour, but which one is more suited to online auctions? We compared both theories in terms of their predictive power and their practical utility. Although both models explain the propensity to bid in online auctions very well, the Technology Acceptance Model provides more specific recommendations for facilitating the use of online auctions. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Predicting and monitoring cancer treatment response with diffusion-weighted MRIJOURNAL OF MAGNETIC RESONANCE IMAGING, Issue 1 2010Harriet C. Thoeny MD Abstract An imaging biomarker that would provide for an early quantitative metric of clinical treatment response in cancer patients would provide for a paradigm shift in cancer care. Currently, nonimage based clinical outcome metrics include morphology, clinical, and laboratory parameters, however, these are obtained relatively late following treatment. Diffusion-weighted MRI (DW-MRI) holds promise for use as a cancer treatment response biomarker as it is sensitive to macromolecular and microstructural changes which can occur at the cellular level earlier than anatomical changes during therapy. Studies have shown that successful treatment of many tumor types can be detected using DW-MRI as an early increase in the apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) values. Additionally, low pretreatment ADC values of various tumors are often predictive of better outcome. These capabilities, once validated, could provide for an important opportunity to individualize therapy thereby minimizing unnecessary systemic toxicity associated with ineffective therapies with the additional advantage of improving overall patient health care and associated costs. In this report, we provide a brief technical overview of DW-MRI acquisition protocols, quantitative image analysis approaches and review studies which have implemented DW-MRI for the purpose of early prediction of cancer treatment response. J. Magn. Reson. Imaging 2010. © 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc. [source] A Simpler Approach to Population Balance Modeling in Predicting the Performance of Ziegler-Natta Catalyzed Gas-Phase Olefin Polymerization Reactor SystemsMACROMOLECULAR REACTION ENGINEERING, Issue 2-3 2009Randhir Rawatlal Abstract In this work, an alternative formulation of the Population Balance Model (PBM) is proposed to simplify the mathematical structure of the reactor model. The method is based on the segregation approach applied to the recently developed unsteady state residence time distribution (RTD). It is shown that the model can predict the performance of a reactor system under unsteady flow and composition conditions. Case studies involving time-varying catalyst flowrates, reactor temperature and reactor pressure were simulated and found to predict reactor performance with reasonable accuracy. The model was used to propose a grade transition strategy that could reduce transition time by as much as two hours. [source] Predicting solid compounds via global exploration of the energy landscape of solids on the ab initio level without recourse to experimental informationPHYSICA STATUS SOLIDI (B) BASIC SOLID STATE PHYSICS, Issue 1 2010J. Christian Schön Abstract Predicting which crystalline modifications can exist in a chemical system requires the global exploration of its energy landscape. Due to the large computational effort involved, in the past this search for sufficiently stable minima has been performed employing a variety of empirical potentials and cost functions followed by a local optimization on the ab initio level. However, this might introduce some bias favoring certain types of chemical bonding and entails the risk of overlooking important modifications that are not modeled accurately using empirical potentials. In order to overcome this critical limitation, it is necessary to employ ab initio energy functions during the global optimization phase of the structure prediction. In this paper, we review the current state of the field of structure prediction on the ab initio level. [source] New Method for Predicting the Lumbar Lordosis Angle in Skeletal MaterialTHE ANATOMICAL RECORD : ADVANCES IN INTEGRATIVE ANATOMY AND EVOLUTIONARY BIOLOGY, Issue 12 2007Ella Been Abstract Reconstructing the lordotic curvature of the lumbar spine in humans is essential for understanding their posture and locomotion. To date there is still no reliable method for predicting the lordotic curvature of disarticulated spines (in the absence of intervertebral disks). This article examines two possible methods for predicting the lordotic curvature of the lumbar spine. The first,the traditional method,is based on the degree of wedging of the vertebral bodies, and the second,the suggested new method,is based on a lateral view of the orientation of the inferior articular processes. We propose a linear regression model for predicting the lordotic curvature of the lumbar spine (lordosis angle) in disarticulated human spines. This model, derived directly from our new method, is a more reliable predictor of the lumbar lordosis angle in disarticulated spines. Anat Rec, 2007. © 2007 Wiley-Liss, Inc. [source] Predicting Committed Behavior: Exchange Ideology and Pre-entry Perceived Organisational SupportAPPLIED PSYCHOLOGY, Issue 2 2010Asya Pazy A longitudinal field study conducted in a military setting examined the effects of exchange ideology, pre-entry Perceived Organisational Support, and their interaction, on initial and long-term committed behavior. The effect of exchange ideology was compared to that of a solidly validated biodata score which was assessed with a structured interview. The sample consisted of 1,276 conscripts to military service. Results showed that exchange ideology had effects on both initial and long-term committed behavior; these effects were stronger than those of pre-entry Perceived Organisational Support, and comparable to those of the biodata structured interview. Une recherche de terrain longitudinale conduite dans un contexte militaire a porté sur les effets de l'idéologie de l'échange, du soutien organisationnel perçu avant l'intégration et de leur interaction sur l'implication initiale et à long terme. Les retombées de l'idéologie de l'échange ont été comparées à celles d'un score biodata correctement validéévaluéà partir d'un entretien structuré. L'échantillon était constitué de 1276 conscrits. Les résultats montrent que l'idéologie de l'échange présente un impact à la fois sur l'implication initiale et à long terme, cet impact étant plus fort que celui du soutien organisationnel perçu avant l'intégration et comparable à celui de l'interview structuré portant sur les biodata. [source] The Role of Individual Characteristics in Predicting the Stability of Party Identification: A Cross-Cultural StudyAPPLIED PSYCHOLOGY, Issue 3 2008Maria-Magdalena Farc The present study examined political partisanship stability in the context of transitional and consolidated democracies. We hypothesised that (a) in both democratic systems, personality differences as well as socialisation patterns and socioeconomic factors would be related to the stability of party identification directly, and that (b) the relationship between individual factors and party identification patterns would be moderated by democracy type and by socialisation strength. A total of 521 participants (293 American, 228 Romanian) completed surveys assessing partisanship stability, individual dispositions, socialisation strength, and socioeconomic status. In support of hypothesis (a), the stability of party identification was significantly predicted by socialisation, desire for control, and positive economic perceptions. In support of hypothesis (b), type of democracy moderated the relationship between economic perceptions and partisanship stability, and parental socialisation moderated the relationship between desire for control/self-consciousness and the stability of party identification. La présente étude examine la stabilité de la préférence politique dans un contexte de démocraties en transition ou consolidées. Nous faisons l'hypothèse que (a) dans les deux systèmes démocratiques, les différences de personnalité, comme les modèles de socialisation et les facteurs économiques sont directement liés à la stabilité d'identification à un parti et que (b) la relation entre les facteurs individuels et les modèles d'identification à un parti est affaibli par le type de démocratie et la force de la socialisation. Un total de 521 participants (293 Américains et 228 Roumains) ont répondu à une enquête évaluant la stabilité de la préférence, les dispositions individuelles, la force de la socialisation et le statut socio-économique. En accord avec l'hypothèse (a), la stabilité d'identification à un parti est significativement prédictible par la socialisation, le désir de contrôle et la perception positive de l'économie. En accord avec l'hypothèse (b), d'une part, le type de démocratie affaiblit la relation entre les perceptions de l'économie et la stabilité de la préférence, d'autre part, la socialisation parentale affaiblit le lien entre le contrôle/la conscience de soi et la stabilité de l'identification à un parti. [source] A scientific approach to agent selectionAUSTRALIAN JOURNAL OF ENTOMOLOGY, Issue 4 2006Rieks D Van Klinken Abstract, The prioritisation of potential agents on the basis of likely efficacy is an important step in biological control because it can increase the probability of a successful biocontrol program, and reduce risks and costs. In this introductory paper we define success in biological control, review how agent selection has been approached historically, and outline the approach to agent selection that underpins the structure of this special issue on agent selection. Developing criteria by which to judge the success of a biocontrol agent (or program) provides the basis for agent selection decisions. Criteria will depend on the weed, on the ecological and management context in which that weed occurs, and on the negative impacts that biocontrol is seeking to redress. Predicting which potential agents are most likely to be successful poses enormous scientific challenges. ,Rules of thumb', ,scoring systems' and various conceptual and quantitative modelling approaches have been proposed to aid agent selection. However, most attempts have met with limited success due to the diversity and complexity of the systems in question. This special issue presents a series of papers that deconstruct the question of agent choice with the aim of progressively improving the success rate of biological control. Specifically they ask: (i) what potential agents are available and what should we know about them? (ii) what type, timing and degree of damage is required to achieve success? and (iii) which potential agent will reach the necessary density, at the right time, to exert the required damage in the target environment? [source] Modeling O2 transport within engineered hepatic devicesBIOTECHNOLOGY & BIOENGINEERING, Issue 1 2003Randall E. McClelland Abstract Predicting and improving oxygen transport within bioartificial liver (BAL) devices continues to be an important engineering challenge since oxygen is one of the critical nutrients necessary for maintaining hepatocyte viability and function. Such a computational model would not only help predict outcomes but it would also allow system modifications to be analyzed prior to developing experimental protocols. This would help to facilitate future design improvements while reducing both experimental time and capital resource costs, and is the focus of the current study. Specifically, a computational model of O2 transport through collagen and microporous collagen ECMs is analyzed for hollow fiber (HF), flat plate (FP), and spheroid BAL designs. By modifying the O2 boundary conditions, hepatocyte O2 consumption levels, O2 permeability of the ECM, and ECM void fractions, O2 transport predictions are determined for each system as a function of time and distance. Accuracy of the predictive model is confirmed by comparing computational vs. experimental results for the HF BAL system. The model's results indicate that O2 transport within all three BAL designs can be improved significantly by incorporating the enhancement technique. This technique modifies a diffusion-dominant gel ECM into a porous matrix with diffusive and convective flows that mutually transport O2 through the ECMs. Although tortuous pathways increase the porous ECM's overall effective length of O2 travel, the decreased transport resistances of these pathways allow O2 to permeate more effectively into the ECMs. Furthermore, because the HF design employs convective flow on both its inner and outer ECM surfaces, greater control of O2 transport through its ECM is predicted, as compared with the single O2 source inputs of the flat plate and spheroid systems. The importance of this control is evaluated by showing how modifying the O2 concentration and/or transfer coefficients of the convective flows can affect O2 transport. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Biotechnol Bioeng 82: 12,27, 2003. [source] The Genetic Mechanism and Model of Deep-Basin Gas Accumulation and Methods for Predicting the Favorable AreasACTA GEOLOGICA SINICA (ENGLISH EDITION), Issue 4 2003WANG Tao Abstract, As a kind of abnormal natural gas formed with special mechanism, the deep-basin gas, accumulated in the lower parts of a basin or syncline and trapped by a tight reservoir, has such characteristics as gas-water inversion, abnormal pressure, continuous distribution and tremendous reserves. Being a geological product of the evolution of petroliferous basins by the end of the middle-late stages, the formation of a deep-basin gas accumulation must meet four conditions, i.e., continuous and sufficient gas supply, tight reservoirs in continuous distribution, good sealing caps and stable structures. The areas, where the expansion force of natural gas is smaller than the sum of the capillary force and the hydrostatic pressure within tight reservoirs, are favorable for forming deep-basin gas pools. The range delineated by the above two forces corresponds to that of the deep-basin gas trap. Within the scope of the deep-basin gas trap, the balance relationship between the amounts of ingoing and overflowing gases determines the gas-bearing area of the deep-basin gas pool. The gas volume in regions with high porosity and high permeability is worth exploring under current technical conditions and it is equivalent to the practical resources (about 10%-20% of the deep-basin gas). Based on studies of deep-basin gas formation conditions, the theory of force balance and the equation of material balance, the favorable areas and gas-containing ranges, as well as possible gas-rich regions are preliminarily predicted in the deep-basin gas pools in the Upper Paleozoic He-8 segment of the Ordos basin. [source] Predicting health-related quality of life of parents of children with inherited metabolic diseasesACTA PAEDIATRICA, Issue 7 2009Janneke Hatzmann Abstract Aim:, The aim of this study was to examine medical, socio-demographic and psychosocial determinants of health-related quality of life (HRQoL) of parents of children with metabolic diseases. Methods:, A survey among parents of children with metabolic diseases (children aged 1,19 years, diagnosed >1 year before the start of the study, living at home). Parents were approached through the Emma Children's Hospital, and through a national parent and patient association. HRQoL was assessed using the TNO-AZL Questionnaire for Adult's Health Related Quality of Life (TAAQOL), describing 12 domains of HRQoL. Predictor variables were taken from a self-report questionnaire. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to predict which parents were at risk for HRQoL impairment. Results:, Mainly psychosocial determinants were predictive for parental HRQoL. Emotional support was protective for parental HRQOL while loss of friendship was a risk factor for HRQoL impairment. Medical and socio-demographic variables did not consistently predict parental HRQoL. Conclusion:, Psychosocial determinants appeared more important in predicting parental HRQoL than medical and socio-demographic variables. Interventions should be focused on supporting parents combining the care for their children with a social life. Further research on this subject is necessary. In the meantime, involved medical specialists should pay structural attention to parental functioning. [source] THE IMPACT OF BRITISH COUNTERTERRORIST STRATEGIES ON POLITICAL VIOLENCE IN NORTHERN IRELAND: COMPARING DETERRENCE AND BACKLASH MODELS,CRIMINOLOGY, Issue 1 2009GARY LAFREE Since philosophers Beccaria and Bentham, criminologists have been concerned with predicting how governmental attempts to maintain lawful behavior affect subsequent rates of criminal violence. In this article, we build on prior research to argue that governmental responses to a specific form of criminal violence,terrorism,may produce both a positive deterrence effect (i.e., reducing future incidence of prohibited behavior) and a negative backlash effect (i.e., increasing future incidence of prohibited behavior). Deterrence-based models have long dominated both criminal justice and counterterrorist policies on responding to violence. The models maintain that an individual's prohibited behavior can be altered by the threat and imposition of punishment. Backlash models are more theoretically scattered but receive mixed support from several sources, which include research on counterterrorism; the criminology literature on labeling, legitimacy, and defiance; and the psychological literature on social power and decision making. In this article, we identify six major British strategies aimed at reducing political violence in Northern Ireland from 1969 to 1992 and then use a Cox proportional hazard model to estimate the impact of these interventions on the risk of new attacks. In general, we find the strongest support for backlash models. The only support for deterrence models was a military surge called Operation Motorman, which was followed by significant declines in the risk of new attacks. The results underscore the importance of considering the possibility that antiterrorist interventions might both increase and decrease subsequent violence. [source] ROMANTIC PARTNERS' INFLUENCE ON MEN'S LIKELIHOOD OF ARREST IN EARLY ADULTHOOD,CRIMINOLOGY, Issue 2 2008DEBORAH M. CAPALDI Female romantic partners' influence on official crime occurrence for men across a 12-year period in early adulthood was examined within a comprehensive dynamic prediction model, including both social learning and social control predictors. We hypothesized that relationship stability, rather than attachment to partner, would be associated with reduced likelihood of crime, whereas women's antisocial behavior would be a risk factor, along with deviant peer association. Models were tested on a sample of at-risk men [the Oregon Youth Study (OYS)] using zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) modeling predicting 1) arrest persistence (class and count) and 2) arrest onset class. The findings indicated that women's antisocial behavior was predictive of both onset and persistence of arrests for men and that deviant peer association was predictive of persistence. Relationship stability was protective against persistence. [source] Diabetes control and complications: the role of glycated haemoglobin, 25 years onDIABETIC MEDICINE, Issue 7 2004S. L. Jeffcoate Abstract The long-term complications of diabetes have major consequences for individual subjects and growing healthcare delivery and cost implications for society. Evidence for the benefits of good glycaemic control, as monitored by glycated haemoglobin measurements, has been developed in the 25 years since they were introduced to the point where HbA1c assays play central roles in patient management, clinical guidance and audit, and clinical trial design. In this review this evidence is examined and three classes of uncertainty identified that diminish confidence in the effectiveness of these roles for HbA1c. 1Analytical variability between different methods for HbA1c has restricted the application of clinical targets and this problem has recently been addressed by reference method standardization. There are two approaches to this which result in different HbA1c values and this discrepancy needs to be resolved. 2Biological variability in HbA1c values between individuals also restricts its predictive role when applied to populations. The correlations between HbA1c measurements and various components of glycaemia (overall, fasting, postprandial) are still uncertain and differences in protein glycation and de-glycation are greater between subjects than often thought. The influence of variability in erythrocyte life span is an area where research is needed, especially in diabetic subjects. 3Clinical variability is the most important and complex area of uncertainty. A predictive link between HbA1c and clinical outcomes is not as clear-cut as often stated. The correlation with the development of microvascular disease is well established in Type 1 diabetes, but in Type 2 subjects (90% of those with diabetes) the evidence that HbA1c monitoring is of value in predicting or preventing macrovascular disease is not strong, although it is the major cause of morbidity and early death in this group. It is recommended that, as a matter of urgency, these issues be examined, particularly within the context of self-care in diabetes. Diabet. Med. **, ***,*** (2003) [source] Benthic macroinvertebrates in Swedish streams: community structure, taxon richness, and environmental relationsECOGRAPHY, Issue 3 2003Leonard Sandin Spatial scale, e.g. from the stream channel, riparian zone, and catchment to the regional and global scale is currently an important topic in running water management and bioassessment. An increased knowledge of how the biota is affected by human alterations and management measures taken at different spatial scales is critical for improving the ecological quality of running waters. However, more knowledge is needed to better understand the relationship between environmental factors at different spatial scales, assemblage structure and taxon richness of running water organisms. In this study, benthic macroinvertebrate data from 628 randomly selected streams were analysed for geographical and environmental relationships. The dataset also included 100 environmental variables, from local measures such as in-stream substratum and vegetation type, catchment vegetation and land-use, and regional variables such as latitude and longitude. Cluster analysis of the macroinvertebrate data showed a continuous gradient in taxonomic composition among the cluster groups from north to south. Both locally measured variables (e.g. water chemistry, substratum composition) and regional factors (e.g. latitude, longitude, and an ecoregional delineation) were important for explaining the variation in assemblage structure and taxon richness for stream benthic macroinvertebrates. This result is of importance when planning conservation and management measurements, implementing large-scale biomonitoring programs, and predicting how human alterations (e.g. global warming) will affect running water ecosystems. [source] Herbivore control of annual grassland composition in current and future environmentsECOLOGY LETTERS, Issue 1 2006Halton A. Peters Abstract Selective consumption by herbivores influences the composition and structure of a range of plant communities. Anthropogenically driven global environmental changes, including increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), warming, increased precipitation, and increased N deposition, directly alter plant physiological properties, which may in turn modify herbivore consumption patterns. In this study, we tested the hypothesis that responses of annual grassland composition to global changes can be predicted exclusively from environmentally induced changes in the consumption patterns of a group of widespread herbivores, the terrestrial gastropods. This was done by: (1) assessing gastropod impacts on grassland composition under ambient conditions; (2) quantifying environmentally induced changes in gastropod feeding behaviour; (3) predicting how grassland composition would respond to global-change manipulations if influenced only by herbivore consumption preferences; and (4) comparing these predictions to observed responses of grassland community composition to simulated global changes. Gastropod herbivores consume nearly half of aboveground production in this system. Global changes induced species-specific changes in plant leaf characteristics, leading gastropods to alter the relative amounts of different plant types consumed. These changes in gastropod feeding preferences consistently explained global-change-induced responses of functional group abundance in an intact annual grassland exposed to simulated future environments. For four of the five global change scenarios, gastropod impacts explained > 50% of the quantitative changes, indicating that herbivore preferences can be a major driver of plant community responses to global changes. [source] Differences in the measured alcohol content of drinks between black, white and Hispanic men and women in a US national sampleADDICTION, Issue 9 2009William C. Kerr ABSTRACT Aims To measure and describe drink alcohol content differences between Hispanic, non-Hispanic white and non-Hispanic black men and women in the United States. Design A telephone survey re-interview of 397 respondents who participated originally in the 2005 National Alcohol Survey, of whom 306 provided complete information on home drinks. Setting United States. Participants Adults aged 18 years and older from across the United States. Measurements Direct measurement by respondents of simulated drink pours in respondents' own glassware using a provided beaker and reported beverage brands were used to calculate drink alcohol content. Findings Black men were found to have the largest overall mean drink alcohol content at 0.79 oz (23 ml) of alcohol. This was significantly larger than the mean for white men or for black women and added 30% to black men's monthly alcohol intake when applied to their reported number of drinks. Spirits drinks were found to be particularly large for men. Multivariate models indicated that drink alcohol content differences are attributable more to income and family structure differences than to unmeasured cultural factors tied to race or ethnicity per se. Models predicting alcohol-related consequences and dependence indicate that adjusting drink alcohol content improves model fit and reduces differences between race/ethnicity defined groups. Conclusions Differences in drink alcohol content by gender, race/ethnicity and beverage type choice should be considered in comparisons of drinking patterns and alcohol-related outcomes. Observed differences can be explained partially by measured characteristics regarding family structure and income. [source] Accuracy of triage nurses in predicting patient dispositionEMERGENCY MEDICINE AUSTRALASIA, Issue 4 2007Anna Holdgate Abstract Objective:, Increasing demand to reduce patient waiting times and improve patient flow has led to the introduction of a number of strategies such as fast track and patient streaming. The triage nurse is primarily responsible for identifying suitable patients, based on prediction of likely admission or discharge. The aim of the present study was to explore the accuracy with which triage nurses predict patient disposition. Methods:, Over two separate 1-week periods, triage nurses at two urban tertiary hospitals electronically recorded in real time whether they thought each patient would be admitted or discharged. The patient's ultimate disposition (admission or discharge), age, sex, diagnostic group, triage category and time of arrival were also recorded. Results:, In total, 1342 patients were included in the study, of which 36.0% were subsequently admitted. Overall, the triage nurse correctly predicted the disposition in 75.7% of patients (95% CI: 73.2,78.0). Nurses were more accurate at predicting discharge than admission (83.3%,vs 65.1%,,P = 0.04). Triage nurses were most accurate at predicting admission in patients with higher triage categories and most accurate at predicting discharge in patients with injuries and febrile illnesses (89.6%, 95% CI: 85.6,92.6). Predicted discharge was least accurate for patients with cardiovascular disease, with 41.1% (95% CI: 26.4,57.8) of predicted discharges in this category subsequently requiring admission. Conclusion:, Triage nurses can accurately predict likely discharge in specific subgroups of ED patients. This supports the role of triage nurses in appropriately identifying patients suitable for ,fast track' or streaming. [source] Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis: Selected practical issues in their evaluation and management,HEPATOLOGY, Issue 1 2009Raj Vuppalanchi Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is among the most common causes of chronic liver disease in the western world. It is now recognized that these patients have myriad of important co-morbidities (e.g., diabetes, hypothyroidism and metabolic syndrome). The workup of patients with suspected NAFLD should consist of excluding competing etiologies and systemic evaluation of metabolic comorbidities. NAFLD is histologically categorized into steatosis and steatohepatitis, two states with fairly dichotomous natural history. While significant progress has been made in terms of noninvasively predicting advanced fibrosis, insufficient progress has been made in predicting steatohepatitis. Currently, liver biopsy remains the gold standard for the histological stratification of NAFLD. While sustained weight loss can be effective to treat NASH, it is often difficult to achieve. Foregut bariatric surgery can be quite effective in improving hepatic histology in selected patients without liver failure or significant portal hypertension. Thiazolidinediones have shown promise and the results from the ongoing, large multicenter study should become available soon. Large multicenter studies of CB, receptor anatagonists are also underway but their results will not be available for several years. Several recent studies have highlighted that cardiovascular disease is the single most important cause of morbidity and mortality in this patient population. Conclusion: Health care providers should not only focus on liver disease but also concentrate on aggressively modifying and treating their cardiovascular risk factors. (HEPATOLOGY 2009;49:306-317.) [source] A comparison of label-based review and ALE meta-analysis in the Stroop taskHUMAN BRAIN MAPPING, Issue 1 2005Angela R. Laird Abstract Meta-analysis is an important tool for interpreting results of functional neuroimaging studies and is highly influential in predicting and testing new outcomes. Although traditional label-based review can be used to search for agreement across multiple studies, a new function-location meta-analysis technique called activation likelihood estimation (ALE) offers great improvements over conventional methods. In ALE, reported foci are modeled as Gaussian functions and pooled to create a statistical whole-brain image. ALE meta-analysis and the label-based review were used to investigate the Stroop task in normal subjects, a paradigm known for its effect of producing conflict and response inhibition due to subjects' tendency to perform word reading as opposed to color naming. Both methods yielded similar activation patterns that were dominated by response in the anterior cingulate and the inferior frontal gyrus. ALE showed greater involvement of the anterior cingulate as compared to that in the label-based technique; however, this was likely due to the increased spatial level of distinction allowed with the ALE method. With ALE, further analysis of the anterior cingulate revealed evidence for somatotopic mapping within the rostral and caudal cingulate zones, an issue that has been the source of some conflict in previous reviews of the anterior cingulate cortex. Hum Brain Mapp 25:6,21, 2005. © 2005 Wiley-Liss, Inc. [source] Hydrogeologic controls on summer stream temperatures in the McKenzie River basin, OregonHYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 24 2007Christina Tague Abstract Stream temperature is a complex function of energy inputs including solar radiation and latent and sensible heat transfer. In streams where groundwater inputs are significant, energy input through advection can also be an important control on stream temperature. For an individual stream reach, models of stream temperature can take advantage of direct measurement or estimation of these energy inputs for a given river channel environment. Understanding spatial patterns of stream temperature at a landscape scale requires predicting how this environment varies through space, and under different atmospheric conditions. At the landscape scale, air temperature is often used as a surrogate for the dominant controls on stream temperature. In this study we show that, in regions where groundwater inputs are key controls and the degree of groundwater input varies in space, air temperature alone is unlikely to explain within-landscape stream temperature patterns. We illustrate how a geologic template can offer insight into landscape-scale patterns of stream temperature and its predictability from air temperature relationships. We focus on variation in stream temperature within headwater streams within the McKenzie River basin in western Oregon. In this region, as in other areas of the Pacific Northwest, fish sensitivity to summer stream temperatures continues to be a pressing environmental issue. We show that, within the McKenzie, streams which are sourced from deeper groundwater reservoirs versus shallow subsurface flow systems have distinct summer temperature regimes. Groundwater streams are colder, less variable and less sensitive to air temperature variation. We use these results from the western Oregon Cascade hydroclimatic regime to illustrate a conceptual framework for developing regional-scale indicators of stream temperature variation that considers the underlying geologic controls on spatial variation, and the relative roles played by energy and water inputs. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] The clinical value of rapid assay for plasma B-type natriuretic peptide in differentiating congestive heart failure from pulmonary causes of dyspnoeaINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLINICAL PRACTICE, Issue 2 2008S.-Q. Zhao Summary Background:, B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) is a cardiac neurohormone secreted from the cardiac ventricles in response to pressure overload. Objective:, To evaluate the optimal cutoff point of plasma BNP in diagnosing congestive heart failure (CHF). Methods:, We conducted a prospective study of 195 patients who were hospitalised with dyspnoea. Pulmonary capillary wedge pressure (PCWP) was measured with a Swan-Ganz catheterisation and plasma BNP level was obtained by a rapid immunofluorescence assay in all patients. PCWP > 12 mmHg was chosen as the golden standard for left ventricular dysfunction in this study. The subjects were divided into two groups by the criteria, one group with dyspnoea caused by CHF (n = 134) and the other caused by lung diseases (n = 61). Results:, (1) BNP cutoff point of 100 pg/ml had a sensitivity of 94.34%, a specificity of 92.13% and an accuracy of 93.33% for differentiating CHF from pulmonary dyspnoea. (2) By multiple logistic-regression analysis, measurements of BNP added significantly independent predictive power to other clinical variables in models predicting which patients had CHF. Conclusion:, A value of 100 pg/ml or more for a rapid BNP assay may be the most accurate independent predictor of the presence or absence of CHF. [source] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||