Home About us Contact
|
Home About us Contact | ||
|
|
||
Predicted Survival (predicted + survival)
Selected AbstractsLinking resources with demography to understand resource limitation for bearsJOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY, Issue 6 2007MELISSA J. REYNOLDS-HOGLAND Summary 1,Identifying the resources that limit growth of animal populations is essential for effective conservation; however, resource limitation is difficult to quantify. Recent advances in geographical information systems (GIS) and resource modelling can be combined with demographic modelling to yield insights into resource limitation. 2,Using long-term data on a population of black bears Ursus americanus, we evaluated competing hypotheses about whether availability of hard mast (acorns and nuts) or soft mast (fleshy fruits) limited bears in the southern Appalachians, USA, during 1981,2002. The effects of clearcutting on habitat quality were also evaluated. Annual survival, recruitment and population growth rate were estimated using capture,recapture data from 101 females. The availability of hard mast, soft mast and clearcuts was estimated with a GIS, as each changed through time as a result of harvest and succession, and then availabilities were incorporated as covariates for each demographic parameter. 3,The model with the additive availability of hard mast and soft mast across the landscape predicted survival and population growth rate. Availability of young clearcuts predicted recruitment, but not population growth or survival. 4,Availability of hard mast stands across the landscape and availability of soft mast across the landscape were more important than hard mast production and availability of soft mast in young clearcuts, respectively. 5,Synthesis and applications. Our results indicate that older stands, which support high levels of hard mast and moderate levels of soft mast, should be maintained to sustain population growth of bears in the southern Appalachians. Simultaneously, the acreage of intermediate aged stands (10,25 years), which support very low levels of both hard mast and soft mast, should be minimized. The approach used in this study has broad application for wildlife management and conservation. State and federal wildlife agencies often possess long-term data on both resource availability and capture,recapture for wild populations. Combined, these two data types can be used to estimate survival, recruitment, population growth, elasticities of vital rates and the effects of resource availability on demographic parameters. Hence data that are traditionally used to understand population trends can be used to evaluate how and why demography changes over time. [source] Temperature dependent larval resource allocation shaping adult body size in Drosophila melanogasterJOURNAL OF EVOLUTIONARY BIOLOGY, Issue 6 2003Z. Bochdanovits Abstract Geographical variation in Drosophila melanogaster body size is a long-standing problem of life-history evolution. Adaptation to a cold climate invariably produces large individuals, whereas evolution in tropical regions result in small individuals. The proximate mechanism was suggested to involve thermal evolution of resource processing by the developing larvae. In this study an attempt is made to merge proximate explanations, featuring temperature sensitivity of larval resource processing, and ultimate approaches focusing on adult and pre-adult life-history traits. To address the issue of temperature dependent resource allocation to adult size vs. larval survival, feeding was stopped at several stages during the larval development. Under these conditions of food deprivation, two temperate and two tropical populations reared at high and low temperatures produced different adult body sizes coinciding with different probabilities to reach the adult stage. In all cases a phenotypic trade-off between larval survival and adult size was observed. However, the underlying pattern of larval resource allocation differed between the geographical populations. In the temperate populations larval age but not weight predicted survival. Temperate larvae did not invest accumulated resources in survival, instead they preserved larval biomass to benefit adult weight. In other words, larvae from temperate populations failed to re-allocate accumulated resources to facilitate their survival. A low percentage of the larvae survived to adulthood but produced relatively large flies. Conversely, in tropical populations larval weight but not age determined the probability to reach adulthood. Tropical larvae did not invest in adult size, but facilitated their own survival. Most larvae succeeded in pupating but then produced small adults. The underlying physiological mechanism seemed to be an evolved difference in the accessibility of glycogen reserves as a result of thermal adaptation. At low rearing temperatures and in the temperate populations, glycogen levels tended to correlate positively with adult size but negatively with pupation probability. The data presented here offer an explanation of geographical variation in body size by showing that thermal evolution of resource allocation, specifically the ability to access glycogen storage, is the proximate mechanism responsible for the life-history trade-off between larval survival and adult size. [source] What is the real gain after liver transplantation?LIVER TRANSPLANTATION, Issue S2 2009James Neuberger Key Points 1. For most liver allograft recipients, both the quality and length of life are greatly improved after transplantation. However, neither the quality of life nor the length of life in the survivors returns to that seen in age-matched and sex-matched normal subjects. 2. The gain in survival after transplantation can be estimated by a comparison of the actual outcome after transplantation and the predicted survival in the absence of transplantation. 3. The reduction in graft and patient survival, in comparison with a normal age-matched and sex-matched population, is determined by several factors: short-term survival is affected by the patient's condition pre-transplant and the quality of the graft, and for longer term survival, recurrent disease accounts for most of the differences seen between different indications. Some of the causes of premature death (such as infection, de novo malignancy, and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease) that are increased in the liver allograft recipient may be reduced by improved management with more aggressive surveillance and treatment. 4. The aims of selection and allocation vary in different health care systems: transparency, objectivity, equity of access, justice, mortality awaiting transplantation, utility, and transplant benefit are all important but often competing demands. Understanding the associated increase in survival will allow for a rational approach to this complex area. Liver Transpl 15:S1,S5, 2009. © 2009 AASLD. [source] Balancing Multiple and Conflicting Allocation Goals: A Logical Path ForwardAMERICAN JOURNAL OF TRANSPLANTATION, Issue 7 2009P. G. Stock A potential strategy for a new allocation system for kidney allocation should match predicted longevity of the donor kidney with predicted survival of the transplant recipient, while balancing the disparate goals of the multiple stakeholders. [source] Body composition and time course changes in regional distribution of fat and lean tissue in unselected cancer patients on palliative care,Correlations with food intake, metabolism, exercise capacity, and hormonesCANCER, Issue 10 2005Marita Fouladiun M.D. Abstract BACKGROUND Several investigations that yielded different results in terms of net changes in body composition of weight-losing cancer patients have been reported that employed a variety of methods based on fundamentally different technology. Most of those reports were cross-sectional, whereas to the authors' knowledge there is sparse information available on longitudinal follow-up measurements in relation to other independent methods for the assessment of metabolism and performance. METHODS For the current report, the authors evaluated time course changes in body composition (dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry) with measurements of whole body and regional distribution of fat and lean tissue in relation to food and dietary intake, host metabolism (indirect calorimetry), maximum exercise capacity (walking test), and circulating hormones in cancer patients who were receiving palliative care during 4,62 months of follow-up. The entire cohort comprised 311 patients, ages 68 years ± 3 years who were diagnosed with solid gastrointestinal tumors (84 colorectal tumors, 74 pancreatic tumors, 73 upper gastrointestinal tumors, 51 liver-biliary tumors, 3 breast tumors, 5 melanomas, and 21 other tumor types). RESULTS Decreased body weight was explained by loss of body fat, preferentially from the trunk, followed by leg tissue and arm tissue, respectively. Lean tissue (fat-free mass) was lost from arm tissue, whereas trunk and leg tissue compartments increased, all concomitant with declines in serum albumin, increased systemic inflammation (C-reactive protein, erythrocyte sedimentation rate), increased serum insulin, and elevated daily caloric intake; whereas serum insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-1), resting energy expenditure, and maximum exercise capacity remained unchanged in the same patients. Serum albumin levels (P < 0.001), whole body fat (P < 0.02), and caloric intake (P < 0.001) predicted survival, whereas lean tissue mass did not. Daily intake of fat and carbohydrate was more important for predicting survival than protein intake. Survival also was predicted by serum IGF-1, insulin, leptin, and ghrelin levels (P < 0.02 , P < 0.001). Serum insulin, leptin, and ghrelin (total) levels predicted body fat (P < 0.001), whereas IGF-1 and thyroid hormone levels (T3, free T3) predicted lean tissue mass (P < 0.01). Systemic inflammation primarily explained variation in lean tissue and secondarily explained loss in body fat. Depletion of lean arm tissue was related most to short survival compared with the depletion of lean leg and trunk tissue. CONCLUSIONS The current results demonstrated that body fat was lost more rapidly than lean tissue in progressive cancer cachexia, a phenomenon that was related highly to alterations in the levels of circulating classic hormones and food intake, including both caloric amount and diet composition. The results showed importance in the planning of efficient palliative treatment for cancer patients. Cancer 2005. © 2005 American Cancer Society. [source] | |||||||||||||