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Precipitation Variability (precipitation + variability)
Selected AbstractsPrecipitation variability and primary productivity in water-limited ecosystems: how plants ,leverage' precipitation to ,finance' growthNEW PHYTOLOGIST, Issue 1 2009Philip A. Fay First page of article [source] Climatic influences and anthropogenic stressors: an integrated framework for streamflow management in Mediterranean-climate California, U.S.A.FRESHWATER BIOLOGY, Issue 2010THEODORE E. GRANTHAM Summary 1. In Mediterranean and other water-stressed climates, water management is critical to the conservation of freshwater ecosystems. To secure and maintain water allocations for the environment, integrated water management approaches are needed that consider ecosystem flow requirements, patterns of human water demands and the temporal and spatial dynamics of water availability. 2. Human settlements in Mediterranean climates have constructed water storage and conveyance projects at a scale and level of complexity far exceeding those in other, less seasonal climates. As a result, multiple ecological stressors associated with natural periods of flooding and drying are compounded by anthropogenic impacts resulting from water infrastructure development. 3. Despite substantial investments in freshwater ecosystem conservation, particularly in California, U.S.A., success has been limited because the scales at which river management and restoration are implemented are often discordant with the temporal and spatial scales at which ecosystem processes operate. Often, there is also strong social and political resistance to restricting water allocation to existing consumptive uses for environmental protection purposes. Furthermore, institutions rarely have the capacity to develop and implement integrated management programmes needed for freshwater ecosystem conservation. 4. We propose an integrated framework for streamflow management that explicitly considers the temporal and spatial dynamics of water supply and needs of both human and natural systems. This approach makes it possible to assess the effects of alternative management strategies to human water security and ecosystem conditions and facilitates integrated decision-making by water management institutions. 5. We illustrate the framework by applying a GIS-based hydrologic model in a Mediterranean-climate watershed in Sonoma County, California, U.S.A. The model is designed to assess the hydrologic impacts of multiple water users distributed throughout a stream network. We analyse the effects of vineyard water management on environmental flows to (i) evaluate streamflow impacts from small storage ponds designed to meet human water demands and reduce summer diversions, (ii) prioritise the placement of storage ponds to meet human water needs while optimising environmental flow benefits and (iii) examine the environmental and social consequences of flow management policies designed to regulate the timing of diversions to protect ecosystem functions. 6. Thematic implications: spatially explicit models that represent anthropogenic stressors (e.g. water diversions) and environmental flow needs are required to address persistent and growing threats to freshwater biodiversity. A coupled human,natural system approach to water management is particularly useful in Mediterranean climates, characterised by severe competition for water resources and high spatial and temporal variability in flow regimes. However, lessons learned from our analyses are applicable to other highly seasonal systems and those that are expected to have increased precipitation variability resulting from climate change. [source] Physiological responses of two contrasting desert plant species to precipitation variability are differentially regulated by soil moisture and nitrogen dynamicsGLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 5 2009LISA D. PATRICK Abstract Alterations in global and regional precipitation patterns are expected to affect plant and ecosystem productivity, especially in water-limited ecosystems. This study examined the effects of natural and supplemental (25% increase) seasonal precipitation on a sotol grassland ecosystem in Big Bend National Park in the Chihuahuan Desert. Physiological responses , leaf photosynthesis at saturating light (Asat), stomatal conductance (gs), and leaf nitrogen [N] , of two species differing in their life form and physiological strategies (Dasylirion leiophyllum, a C3 shrub; Bouteloua curtipendula, a C4 grass) were measured over 3 years (2004,2006) that differed greatly in their annual and seasonal precipitation patterns (2004: wet, 2005: average, 2006: dry). Precipitation inputs are likely to affect leaf-level physiology through the direct effects of altered soil water and soil nitrogen. Thus, the effects of precipitation, watering treatment, soil moisture, and nitrogen were quantified via multivariate hierarchical Bayesian models that explicitly linked the leaf and soil responses. The two species differed in their physiological responses to precipitation and were differentially controlled by soil water vs. soil nitrogen. In the relatively deeply rooted C3 shrub, D. leiophyllum, Asat was highest in moist periods and was primarily regulated by deep (16,30 cm) soil water. In the shallow-rooted C4 grass, B. curtipendula, Asat was only coupled to leaf [N], both of which increased in dry periods when soil [N] was highest. Supplemental watering during the wet year generally decreased Asat and leaf [N] in D. leiophyllum, perhaps due to nutrient limitation, and physiological responses in this species were influenced by the cumulative effects of 5 years of supplemental watering. Both species are common in this ecosystem and responded strongly, yet differently, to soil moisture and nitrogen, suggesting that changes in the timing and magnitude of precipitation may have consequences for plant carbon gain, with the potential to alter community composition. [source] Is the Sonoran Desert losing its cool?GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 12 2005Jeremy L. Weiss Abstract Freezing temperatures strongly influence vegetation in the hottest desert of North America, in part determining both its overall boundary and distributions of plant species within. To evaluate recent variability of freezing temperatures in this context, minimum temperature data from weather stations in the Sonoran Desert are examined. Data show widespread warming trends in winter and spring, decreased frequency of freezing temperatures, lengthening of the freeze-free season, and increased minimum temperatures per winter year. Local land use and multidecadal modes of the global climate system such as the Pacific decadal oscillation and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation do not appear to be principal drivers of this warming. Minimum temperature variability in the Sonoran Desert does, however, correspond to global temperature variability attributed to human-dominated global warming. With warming expected to continue at faster rates throughout the 21st century, potential ecological responses may include contraction of the overall boundary of the Sonoran Desert in the south-east and expansion northward, eastward, and upward in elevation, as well as changes to distributions of plant species within and other characteristics of Sonoran Desert ecosystems. Potential trajectories of vegetation change in the Sonoran Desert region may be affected or made more difficult to predict by uncertain changes in warm season precipitation variability and fire. Opportunities now exist to investigate ecosystem response to regional climate disturbance, as well as to anticipate and plan for continued warming in the Sonoran Desert region. [source] Impact of CO2 concentration changes on the biosphere-atmosphere system of West AfricaGLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 12 2002GUILING WANG Abstract Vegetation dynamics plays a critical role in causing the decadal variability of precipitation over the Sahel region of West Africa. However, the potential impact of changes in CO2 concentration on vegetation dynamics and precipitation variability of this region has not been addressed by previous studies. In this paper, we explore the role of CO2 concentration in the regional climate system of West Africa using a zonally symmetric, synchronously coupled biosphere-atmosphere model. We first document the response of precipitation and vegetation to incremental changes of CO2 concentration; the impact of CO2 concentration on the variability of the regional biosphere-atmosphere system is then addressed using the second half of the twentieth century as an example. An increase of CO2 concentration causes the regional biosphere-atmosphere system to become wetter and greener, with the radiative effect of CO2 and improved plant-water relation dominant in the Sahelian grassland region and the direct enhancement of leaf carbon assimilation dominant in the tree-covered region to the south. Driven by the observed sea surface temperature (SST) of the tropical Atlantic Ocean during the period 1950,97 and with CO2 concentration prescribed at a pre-industrial level 300ppmv, the model simulates a persistent Sahel drought during the period of 1960s,1990s. The simulated drought takes place in the form of a transition of the coupled biosphere-atmosphere system from a wet/green regime in the 1950s to a dry/barren regime after the 1960s. This climate transition is triggered by SST forcing and materialized through vegetation-climate interactions. The same SST forcing does not produce such a persistent drought when a constant modern CO2 concentration of 350ppmv is specified, indicating that the biosphere-atmosphere system at higher CO2 level is more resilient to drought-inducing external forcings. This finding suggests that the regional climate in Sahel, which tends to alternate between dry and wet spells, may experience longer (or more frequent) wet episodes and shorter (or less frequent) dry episodes in the future than in the past. Our study has significant implications regarding the impact of climate change on regional socio-economic development. [source] Decadal trend of climate in the Tibetan Plateau,regional temperature and precipitationHYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 16 2008Z. X. Xu Abstract The Tibetan Plateau has one of the most complex climates in the world. Analysis of the climate in this region is important for understanding the climate change worldwide. In this study, climate patterns and trends in the Tibetan Plateau were analysed for the period from 1961 to 2001. Air temperature and precipitation were analysed on monthly and annual time scales using data collected from the National Meteorological Centre, China Meteorological Administration. Nonlinear slopes were estimated and analysed to investigate the spatial and temporal trends of air temperature and precipitation in the Tibetan Plateau using a Mann,Kendall method. Spatial analysis of air temperature and precipitation variability across the Tibetan Plateau was undertaken. While most trends are local in nature, there are general basinwide patterns. Temperature during the last several decades showed a long-term warmer trend, especially the areas around Dingri and Zogong stations, which formed two increasing centres. Only one of the stations investigated exhibited decreasing trend, and this was not significant. Precipitation in the Tibetan Plateau has increased in most regions of the study area over the past several decades, especially in the eastern and central part, while the western Tibetan Region exhibited a decreased trend over the same period. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Statistical downscaling of daily precipitation from observed and modelled atmospheric fieldsHYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 8 2004Stephen P. Charles Abstract Statistical downscaling techniques have been developed to address the spatial scale disparity between the horizontal computational grids of general circulation models (GCMs), typically 300,500 km, and point-scale meteorological observations. This has been driven, predominantly, by the need to determine how enhanced greenhouse projections of future climate may impact at regional and local scales. As point-scale precipitation is a common input to hydrological models, there is a need for techniques that reproduce the characteristics of multi-site, daily gauge precipitation. This paper investigates the ability of the extended nonhomogeneous hidden Markov model (extended-NHMM) to reproduce observed interannual and interdecadal precipitation variability when driven by observed and modelled atmospheric fields. Previous studies have shown that the extended-NHMM can successfully reproduce the at-site and intersite statistics of daily gauge precipitation, such as the frequency characteristics of wet days, dry- and wet-spell length distributions, amount distributions, and intersite correlations in occurrence and amounts. Here, the extended-NHMM, as fitted to 1978,92 observed ,winter' (May,October) daily precipitation and atmospheric data for 30 rain gauge sites in southwest Western Australia, is driven by atmospheric predictor sets extracted from National Centers for Environmental Prediction,National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis data for 1958,98 and an atmospheric GCM hindcast run forced by observed 1955,91 sea-surface temperatures (SSTs). Downscaling from the reanalysis-derived predictors reproduces the 1958,98 interannual and interdecadal variability of winter precipitation. Downscaling from the SST-forced GCM hindcast only reproduces the precipitation probabilities of the recent 1978,91 period, with poor performance for earlier periods attributed to inadequacies in the forcing SST data. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Statistical downscaling model based on canonical correlation analysis for winter extreme precipitation events in the Emilia-Romagna regionINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 4 2008A. Busuioc Abstract Optimum statistical downscaling models for three winter precipitation indices in the Emilia-Romagna region, especially related to extreme events, were investigated. For this purpose, the indices referring to the number of events exceeding the long-term 90 percentile of rainy days, simple daily intensity and maximum number of consecutive dry days were calculated as spatial averages over homogeneous sub-regions identified by the cluster analysis. The statistical downscaling model (SDM) based on the canonical correlation analysis (CCA) was used as downscaling procedure. The CCA was also used to understand the large-/regional-scale mechanisms controlling precipitation variability across the analysed area, especially with respect to extreme events. The dynamic (mean sea-level pressure-SLP) and thermodynamic (potential instability-,Q and specific humidity-SH) variables were considered as predictors (either individually or together). The large-scale SLP can be considered a good predictor for all sub-regions in the dry index case and for two sub-regions in the case of the other two indices, showing the importance of dynamical forcing in these cases. Potential instability is the best predictor for the highest mountain region in the case of heavy rainfall frequency, when it can be considered as a single predictor. The combination of dynamic and thermodynamic predictors improves the SDM's skill for all sub-regions in the dry index case and for some sub-regions in the simple daily intensity index case. The selected SDMs are stable in time only in terms of correlation coefficient for all sub-regions for which they are skilful and only for some sub-regions in terms of explained variance. The reasons are linked to the changes in the atmospheric circulation patterns influencing the local rainfall variability in Emilia-Romagna as well as the differences in temporal variability over some sub-regions and sub-intervals. It was concluded that the average skill over an ensemble of the most skilful and stable SDMs for each region/sub-interval gives more consistent results. Copyright © 2007 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Atmospheric large-scale dynamics during the 2004/2005 winter drought in portugalINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 5 2007J. Santos Abstract The unusually dry conditions during the 2004/2005 winter in Portugal led to the development of an extreme/severe drought episode throughout the country with major socioeconomic impacts. In fact, at some locations, this winter was the driest in at least the last 60 years. A K-means classification of days into a set of five weather regimes (WRs), relevant for winter precipitation in Portugal, reveals a large prevalence of the two driest weather regimes during the 2004/2005 winter. These two regimes are basically linked to either anticyclonic circulation or easterly winds over Portugal and their prevalence explains the significant precipitation deficit. Winter precipitation variability in Portugal is indeed skillfully represented by linear models where the predictors are the frequencies of occurrence (FO) of these weather regimes. The dominance of the ,dry phases' of the main coupled modes between winter precipitation in Portugal and the large-scale atmospheric circulation also supports the prevalence of the dry regimes and the corresponding lack of precipitation. The predominance of the dry regimes can be explained by a remarkably strong enhancement of the climate-mean North Atlantic ridge, manifested by dynamically coherent anomalies in the geopotential heights, vorticity and temperature fields over the North Atlantic. The persistence of a warm-core asymmetrical eddy over the North Atlantic, with a nearly barotropic equivalent structure, is a manifestation of this large-scale anomaly. The blocking of the westerlies and the consequent northward shift in the axis of maximum moisture transports over the North Atlantic was one of the most striking changes in the large-scale atmospheric flow. Consequently, the main track of the developing baroclinic disturbances was sufficiently distant from Portugal to hamper the development of rain-generating conditions. As these dynamical conditions are common to other reportedly dry winters, they effectively constitute a key factor for the occurrence of a precipitation deficit in Portugal. Copyright © 2006 Royal Meteorological Society [source] European Alpine moisture variability for 1800,2003INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 4 2007G. van der Schrier Abstract Moisture availability for the European Greater Alpine region (GAR) (43°N,49°N and 4°E,19°E) for the period 1800,2003 is analyzed on the basis of maps of monthly self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) with a 10, × 10, spatial resolution. To represent the impact of seasonal snow cover on the water budget, a simple snow-accumulation and snowmelt model is added to the water balance calculations on which the (self-calibrating) Palmer Drought Severity Index is based. Over the region as a whole, the late 1850s into the 1870s and the 1940s to the early 1950s stand out as persistent and exceptionally dry periods, whereas the first two decades of the nineteenth century and the 1910s were exceptionally wet periods. Dividing the Greater Alpine Region into four subregions, with the subregions based on coherence of precipitation variability, we find a large degree of heterogeneity in the behavior of the drought index over the subregions. The driest summers on record, in terms of the amplitude of the index averaged over the Alpine region, are 1865 and 2003. In these years, 75.6% and 85.1% of the region was suffering from a moderate drought (or worse). The areas northwest of the high mountains were affected most severely in the 1865 drought, whereas the 2003 drought impacted all subregions more equally. By substituting climatological monthly mean temperatures, from the period 1961,1990, for the actual monthly means in the parameterization for potential evaporation, an estimate is made of the direct effect of temperature on drought. It is observed that a major cause for the vast areal extent of the area affected by the summer drought in the last decade is the high temperatures. Temperatures in the 12 months preceding and including the summer of 2003 explain an increase in the area percentage with moderate (or worse) drought of 31.2%. Copyright © 2006 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Covariabilities of spring soil moisture and summertime United States precipitation in a climate simulationINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 4 2007Wanru Wu Abstract This paper explores the space-time connections between springtime soil moisture and summer precipitation over the continental United States by applying a singular value decomposition (SVD) method to a 50-year climate simulation. The first two SVD modes were analyzed. The two leading SVD modes account for 43% of the squared covariance between spring soil moisture and summer precipitation. Their corresponding components explain 14% of the soil moisture variance and 19% of the precipitation variance, respectively, which is larger than that contributed by tropical Pacific sea-surface temperatures (SSTs). The temporal correlations between the two expansion coefficients of each SVD mode are 0.83 and 0.88, respectively, indicating a significant association between spring soil moisture variation and summer precipitation variability. Both positive and negative cross-correlations exist over different regions of the United States in the two modes. Linear regression relates surface relative humidity and surface air temperature to the soil moisture SVD time series. The patterns revealed by the SVD analysis show where the local soil moisture-precipitation coupling contributes to the model's simulation of precipitation. Copyright © 2006 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Features of cross-Pacific climate shown in the variability of China and US precipitationINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 13 2005Q. Li Abstract In this study, we have analyzed the climate features of China and the United States with a focus on the differences, similarities, connectivity, and predictability of precipitation and the relationships between precipitation and large-scale patterns of natural variability. China precipitation is characterized by large seasonality, with a maximum in summer and a minimum in winter. The seasonality of precipitation shows an increasing linear tendency in northwest China, with a change of about 20% from 1901 to 1998. A relatively weaker increasing tendency also appears in the Big Bend of Yellow River (BBYR) and the Tibetan Plateau, while southwest China experiences a decreasing tendency. Furthermore, the seasonality in the BBYR shows particularly significant interdecadal variability, while that of southern and eastern China has decreased slightly in the recent decades. Compared to China, the United States as a whole has less precipitation in summer but more precipitation in other seasons. Here, the seasonality of precipitation is only about 24% of that in China. The annual mean precipitation is 64.1 mm per month in the United States, compared to 54.6 mm per month in China. The seasonality of precipitation exhibits a decreasing tendency in the southeast, Pacific Northwest, and Gulf Coast and an increasing tendency in the Great Lakes. The seasonality in the Great Plains exhibits large interdecadal variability. The long-term variations of precipitation are highly seasonally dependent. In summer, a decreasing trend is observed in north China and an increasing trend is found in eastern-central China. However, these trends are almost opposite in spring. In addition, the fall precipitation decreases with time nearly everywhere in China except for the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley. Results also indicate that the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Arctic Oscillation (AO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the North Pacific (NP) fluctuation affect strongly the variations of China and US precipitation. Although these influences vary with regions and seasons, we in particular emphasize the importance of AO and NAO for China precipitation and NP and PDO for US precipitation. In fall, ENSO and PDO are the two phenomena that influence predominantly precipitation variability in both China and the United States We also identify the common phenomena that influence China and US regional precipitation and provide a better understanding of the physical mechanism for precipitation variability through the associated changes in atmospheric and oceanic conditions. Furthermore, we develop a linear regression model, based on multiple regression method by combining the regionally and seasonally varying impacts, to increase the skill of precipitation prediction. Copyright © 2005 Royal Meteorological Society [source] The influence of the tropical and subtropical Atlantic and Pacific Oceans on precipitation variability over Southern Central South America on seasonal time scalesINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 4 2004Guillermo J. Berri Abstract This paper studies the temporal and spatial patterns of precipitation anomalies over southern central South America (SCSA; 22,40°S and 54,70°W), and their relationship with the sea-surface temperature (SST) variability over the surrounding tropical and subtropical Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. The data include monthly precipitation from 68 weather stations in central,northern Argentina and neighbouring Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay, and monthly SSTs from the NOAA dataset with a 2° resolution for the period 1961,93. We use the method of canonical correlation analysis (CCA) to study the simultaneous relationship between bi-monthly precipitation and SST variability. Before applying the CCA procedure, standardized anomalies are calculated and a prefiltering is applied by means of an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. Thus, the CCA input consists of 10 EOF modes of SST and between 9 and 11 modes for precipitation and their corresponding principal components, which are the minimum number of modes necessary to explain at least 80% of the variance of the corresponding field. The results show that November,December presents the most robust association between the SST and SCSA precipitation variability, especially in northeastern Argentina and southern Brazil, followed by March,April and May,June. The period January,February, in contrast, displays a weak relationship with the oceans and represents a temporal minimum of oceanic influence during the summer semester. Based on the CCA maps, we identify the different oceanic and SCSA regions, the regional averages of SST and precipitation are calculated, and linear correlation analysis are conducted. The periods with greater association between the oceans and SCSA precipitation are November,December and May,June. During November,December, every selected region over SCSA reflects the influence of several oceanic regions, whereas during May,June only a few regions show a direct association with the oceans. The Pacific Ocean regions have a greater influence and are more widespread over SCSA; the Atlantic Ocean regions have an influence only over the northwestern and the southeastern parts of SCSA. In general, the relationship with the equatorial and tropical Atlantic and Pacific Oceans is of the type warm,wet/cold,dry, whereas the subtropical regions of both oceans show the opposite relationship, i.e. warm,dry/cold,wet. Copyright © 2004 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Circulation dynamics of Mediterranean precipitation variability 1948,98INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 15 2003A. Dünkeloh Abstract Canonical correlation analysis is used to identify main coupled circulation,rainfall patterns and to relate recent variability and trends of Mediterranean precipitation to large-scale circulation dynamics. Analyses are based on geopotential heights (500 and 1000 hPa levels) for the North Atlantic,European area (National Centers for Environmental Prediction,National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis) and on highly resolved (0.5° × 0.5° ) monthly rainfall grids (Climatic Research Unit, Norwich) selected for the Mediterranean area during the 1948,98 period. Combining monthly analyses with similar characteristics to seasonal samples yields winter (October,March), spring (April,May) and summer (June,September) types of coupled variability; a particular autumn type for the whole Mediterranean does not occur on the monthly time scale. Coupled patterns specifically linked to one or two seasons include an east Atlantic jet (EA-Jet) related pattern for summer and a Mediterranean meridional circulation (MMC) pattern for winter and spring. The most important pattern recurring with dynamical adjustments throughout the whole year reflects the seasonal cycle of the Mediterranean oscillation (MO), which is linked (with seasonal dependence) to the Northern Hemisphere teleconnection modes of the Arctic oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic oscillation (NAO). Winter rainfall trends of the recent decades marked by widespread decreases in the Mediterranean area and by opposite conditions in the southeastern part are linked to particular changes over time in several of the associated circulation patterns. Thus, different regional rainfall changes are integrated into an overall interrelation between Mediterranean rainfall patterns and large-scale atmospheric circulation dynamics. Copyright © 2003 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Statistical correction of central Southwest Asia winter precipitation simulations,INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 12 2003Michael K. Tippett Abstract Severe drought is a notable feature of the hydrology of central Southwest (CSW) Asia. Although studies have linked the region's interannual precipitation variability to remote forcings that include East Asia jet stream variability and western Pacific tropical convection, atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) forced by observed sea-surface temperatures demonstrate little skill in simulating interannual precipitation variability in this region. Here, statistical methods of correcting systematic errors in GCM simulations of CSW Asia precipitation are investigated. Canonical correlation analysis is used to identify model fields related to observed precipitation anomaly patterns. These relationships are then used to predict observed precipitation anomalies. This approach is applied to the ECHAM 4.5 GCM using regional precipitation, upper-level winds and western Pacific tropical precipitation as predictors of observed CSW Asia precipitation anomalies. The statistical corrections improve the GCM precipitation simulations, resulting in modest, but statistically significant, cross-validated skill in simulating CSW Asia precipitation anomalies. Applying the procedure to hindcasts with persisted sea-surface temperatures gives lower, but statistically significant, precipitation correlations in the region along the Hindu Kush mountain range. Copyright © 2003 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Mesoscale precipitation variability in the region of the European Alps during the 20th centuryINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 9 2002Jürg Schmidli Abstract The purpose of this study is to construct and evaluate a new gridded analysis of precipitation that covers the entire region of the European Alps (43.2,48.8 ° N, 3.2,16.2 ° E), resolves the most prominent mesoscale variations (grid spacing 25 km) and extends with a monthly time-resolution over most of the 20th century (1901,90). The analysis is based on a reconstruction using the reduced-space optimal interpolation technique. It combines data from a high-resolution network over a restricted time period (1971,90) with homogeneous centennial records from a sparse sample of stations. The reconstructed fields account for 78% of the total variance in a cross-validation with independent data. The explained variance for individual grid points varies between 60 and 95%, with lower skills over the southern and western parts of the domain. For averages over 100 × 100 km2 subdomains, the explained variance increases to 90,99%. Comparison of the reconstruction with the CRU05 global analysis reveals good agreement with respect to the interannual variations of large subdomain averages (10 000,50 000 km2), some differences in decadal variations, especially for recent decades, and physically more plausible spatial patterns in the present analysis. The new dataset is exploited to depict 20th century precipitation variations and their correlations with the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO). A linear trend analysis (1901,90) reveals an increase of winter precipitation by 20,30% per 100 years in the western part of the Alps, and a decrease of autumn precipitation by 20,40% to the south of the main ridge. Correlations with the NAO index (NAOI) are weak and highly intermittent to the north and weak and more robust to the south of the main Alpine crest, indicating that changes in the NAOI in recent decades are not of primary importance in explaining observed precipitation changes. Copyright © 2002 Royal Meteorological Society [source] United Kingdom and Ireland precipitation variability and the North Atlantic sea-level pressure fieldINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 8 2001Sarah J. Murphy Abstract The relationship between UK and Ireland (UK&I) precipitation variability and the North Atlantic sea-level pressure (SLP) field is examined. Strong positive correlations between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and precipitation in the northwest of the UK&I, particularly in winter, are confirmed but correlations are insignificant at the 0.05 level in the southeast during all months. This paper identifies new patterns of SLP associated with precipitation variability both for regions and months where precipitation variability is not strongly linked with the NAO and for patterns that appear to be more closely related to UK&I precipitation than the NAO. Two indices of monthly UK&I precipitation variability are calculated using empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of monthly UK&I precipitation anomalies. EOF1 represents precipitation variability for the UK&I as a whole and EOF2 the variability in the north,south precipitation gradient across the UK&I. Correlations between both these monthly EOF derived precipitation indices and SLP show a north,south (sub-tropical/mid-latitude) dipole, which is particularly strong in winter. These correlation patterns are then used to construct new SLP indices, which necessarily relate more closely to UK&I precipitation. The first index resembles the East Atlantic pattern from September to April. The second may be thought of as an alternative index of the NAO, such that it is optimized with respect to precipitation variability and is located northeast of those centres of action most commonly used to calculate the NAO index. Stepwise linear regression models, incorporating the two new indices and the original NAOI, suggest that over 25% of UK&I precipitation variability this century (1900,1994) in each month can be explained by a simple index representation of the North Atlantic SLP field. This rises to over 40% of variance explained in nearly all regions of the UK&I. Copyright © 2001 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Performance of statistical downscaling models in GCM validation and regional climate change estimates: application for Swedish precipitationINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 5 2001Aristita Busuioc Abstract This study deals with an analysis of the performance of a general circulation model (GCM) (HadCM2) in reproducing the large-scale circulation mechanisms controlling Swedish precipitation variability, and in estimating regional climate changes owing to increased CO2 concentration by using canonical correlation analysis (CCA). Seasonal precipitation amounts at 33 stations in Sweden over the period 1899,1990 are used. The large-scale circulation is represented by sea level pressure (SLP) over the Atlantic,European region. The link between seasonal Swedish precipitation and large-scale SLP variability is strong in all seasons, but especially in winter and autumn. For these two seasons, the link is a consequence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern. In winter, another important mechanism is related to a cyclonic/anticyclonic structure centred over southern Scandinavia. In the past century, this connection has remained almost unchanged in time for all seasons except spring. The downscaling model that is built on the basis of this link is skilful in all seasons, but especially so in winter and autumn. This observed link is only partially reproduced by the HadCM2 model, while large-scale SLP variability is fairly well reproduced in all seasons. A concept about optimum statistical downscaling models for climate change purposes is proposed. The idea is related to the capability of the statistical downscaling model to reproduce low frequency variability, rather than having the highest skill in terms of explained variance. By using these downscaling models, it was found that grid point and downscaled climate signals are similar (increasing precipitation) in summer and autumn, while in winter, the amplitudes of the two signals are different. In spring, both signals show a slight increase in the northern and southern parts of Sweden. Copyright © 2001 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Small-scale precipitation variability in the Alps: Climatology in comparison with semi-idealized numerical simulationsTHE QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, Issue 636 2008G. Zängl Abstract This study examines small-scale precipitation patterns in a north-Alpine region, and their dependence on the freezing level and on the crest-level (700 hPa) wind direction and speed. On the one hand, measurements from a uniquely dense operational rain-gauge network are analyzed for a period of 15 years (1991--2005). Information on the ambient atmospheric fields was extracted from climate-mode MM5 simulations driven with ECMWF (re-analysis data. On the other hand, high-resolution semi-idealized MM5 simulations have been conducted, combining realistic topography with idealized atmospheric fields. The atmospheric flow parameters have been chosen to be representative of those used to classify the observational data, focusing on atmospheric conditions conducive to stratiform, orographically enhanced precipitation in the region under consideration. The results of the data analysis indicate a pronounced tendency for local precipitation maxima in the lee of individual mountain ridges, whereas the variability between stations in the centre of wider valleys and stations on the windward foot of individual ridges is comparatively small. This points towards a strong contribution of local precipitation enhancement due to the seeder--feeder mechanism, combined with downstream advection of the precipitating hydrometeors by the ambient winds. The data analysis also reveals that strong winds and high temperatures tend to shift the precipitation field towards the interior of the Alps, whereas low temperatures and weak winds favour precipitation maxima near the northern edge of the Alps. The semi-idealized simulations are consistent with these findings, but their quantitative agreement with the observed precipitation patterns depends on the ambient flow conditions. The closest agreement is found for atmospheric conditions conducive to strong orographic lifting, for which our present idealized flow fields were designed. Lower skill is obtained for conditions not dominated by orographic lifting, which implies that future work should include a generalization of the idealized flow fields. Nevertheless, precipitation patterns generated with semi-idealized simulations seem to be very promising to support the spatial interpolation of point measurements (such as are needed for precipitation climatologies), which currently is usually based on statistical methods rather than physically motivated structures. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Trends and abrupt changes of precipitation maxima in the Pearl River basin, ChinaATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE LETTERS, Issue 2 2009Q. Zhang Abstract We applied the Mann-Kendall (MK) test and Bayesian model to systematically explore trends and abrupt changes of the precipitation series in the Pearl River basin. The results showed that no significant trends were detected for annual precipitation and summer or winter precipitation totals. Significant negative trends were identified for the number of rainy days across the Pearl River basin; significant positive trends were observed regarding precipitation intensity (PI). In particular, the precipitation totals and frequencies of extremely high precipitation events are subject to significant positive trends. In addition, the number of extremely low precipitation events was also increasing significantly. Factors affecting the changes in precipitation patterns are the weakening Asian monsoon and consequently increasing moisture transport to Southern China and the Pearl River basin. In summary, the main findings of this study are: (1) increased precipitation variability and high-intensity rainfall was observed though rainy days and low-intensity rainfall have decreased, and (2) the amount of rainfall has changed little but its variability has increased over the time interval divided by change points. These finds indicate potentially increased risk for both agriculture and in locations subject to flooding, both urban and rural, across the Pearl River basin. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society [source] | |||||||||||||