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Precipitation Amount (precipitation + amount)
Selected AbstractsLong-term changes and regional differences in temperature and precipitation in the metropolitan area of HamburgINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 8 2010K. H. Schlünzen Abstract Climate changes and the urban climate of the ,green city' Hamburg and its metropolitan region are analyzed using observational data for temperature and precipitation. Values for Hamburg's synoptic site HH-Fuhlsbüttel start in 1891 and are used to determine climate changes. Additional data from up to 45 climate stations are used to analyze the different aspects of the regional climate and urban effects on the temperature [urban heat island (UHI)] and precipitation [urban precipitation impact (UPI)]. The analysis of the long-term data shows that the climate has already changed. Annual precipitation significantly increases ,0.8 mm/year when focusing on years 1891,2007 and ,1.3 mm/year for 1948,2007. Precipitation increases are largest in November through March and March as well as June for 1978,2007. For April and July of this period, a precipitation decrease is found. The precipitation distribution shows that moderate daily precipitation amounts (,10 mm/day) have increased by about 10% between 1948,1977 and 1978,2007. Precipitation amounts > 10 mm/day have increased by 20% in the same period. Average temperatures significantly increase by 0.07 K/decade (1891,2007), 0.19 K/decade (1948,2007), 0.6 K/decade (1978,2007) with largest significant increases in fall. For the UHI, it is found that the average temperature is higher up to 1.1 K in the densely build-up city area than outside. Values are about halved for more green urban areas but also depend on more local impacts. The minimum temperatures are up to 3 K higher and maximum temperatures slightly lower in the inner city than in the rural during summer. The winter temperatures are higher throughout the urban area. The UHI differences depend on wind speed; this dependence is best described by using the inverse square root of the wind speed. Classification using different wind directions shows that the precipitation is significantly higher (5,20%) for downwind of urban areas compared with the upwind side. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society [source] The impact of storm events on solute exports from a glaciated forested watershed in western New York, USAHYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 16 2006S. P. Inamdar Abstract This study analysed the importance of precipitation events from May 2003 to April 2004 on surface water chemistry and solute export from a 696 ha glaciated forested watershed in western New York State, USA. The specific objectives of the study were to determine: (a) the temporal patterns of solutes within individual storm events; (b) the impact of precipitation events on seasonal and annual export budgets; and (c) how solute concentrations and loads varied for precipitation events among seasons as functions of storm intensity and antecedent moisture conditions. Analysis of solute trajectories showed that NH4+, total Al and dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) peaked on the hydrograph rising limb, whereas dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations peaked following the discharge peak. Sulphate and base-cations displayed a dilution pattern with a minimum around peak discharge. End-member mixing analysis showed that throughfall contributions were highest on the rising limb, whereas valley-bottom riparian waters peaked following the discharge peak. The trajectories of NO3, concentrations varied with season, indicating the influence of biotic processes on the generation, and hence flux, of this solute. Storm events had the greatest impact on the annual budgets for NH4+, K+, total dissolved Al, DON and DOC. Storm events during summer had the greatest impact on seasonal solute budgets. Summer events had the highest hourly discharges and high concentrations of solutes. However, NO3, and DOC exports during a spring snowmelt event were considerably more than those observed for large events during other periods of the year. Comparisons among storms showed that season, precipitation amount, and antecedent moisture conditions affected solute concentrations and loads. Concentrations of solutes were elevated for storms that occurred after dry antecedent conditions. Seven of the largest storms accounted for only 15% of the annual discharge, but were responsible for 34%, 19%, 64%, 13%, 39% and 24% of the annual exports of NH4+, K+, Al, NO3,, DON and DOC respectively. These results suggest that the intense and infrequent storms predicted for future climate-change scenarios will likely increase the exports of solutes like DOC, DON, NH4+, Al and K+ from watersheds. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Summer rain fall duration and its diurnal cycle over the US Great PlainsINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 10 2009Haoming Chen Abstract By diagnosing the hourly station rain gauge data set for the 1981,1999 periods, it is found that the rainfall diurnal cycle is closely related to its duration during summer (June,August) over the Great Plains [(GP), 100,90°W, 35,45°N]. Short-duration rainfall events (an event of 1 h in duration) occur more frequently in summer, and they tend to have two diurnal maxima over the GP, with one in the early morning [0400,0600 local solar time, (LST)] and the other in the afternoon (1500,1700 LST). Long-duration rainfall events (an event that lasts longer than 3 h) contribute more to the precipitation amount, and they tend to peak from the midnight to early morning (000,0600 LST). This contrast in the diurnal cycle of different classifications of precipitation events over the GP reflects the differences in the convective processes at night and during late afternoon. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Modelling daily precipitation features in the Volta Basin of West AfricaINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 7 2009P. Laux Abstract The combination of a conventional Markov chain model (zero and first order) and a gamma distribution model are found to be applicable to derive meaningful agricultural features from precipitation in the Volta Basin (West Africa). Since the analysis of the monthly or annual precipitation amount does not provide any adequate information on rainfall timing and sufficiency of crop water requirement, rainfall modelling was performed on a daily time scale for 29 rainfall stations. The modelled rainfall features follow distinct spatial patterns, which will be presented as maps of(1) rainfall occurrence probabilities and (2) recommendations of optimal planting dates. In addition, the effective drought index (EDI) working on daily time scales is calculated in order to assess drought properties of five different rainfall regions within the Volta Basin. Apart from the common way of separately modelling the duration and intensity due to their different distributions, a copula approach is chosen in this study to construct a bivariate drought distribution. Application of the measures derived to agricultural decision support will be discussed briefly. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Stable water isotope simulation in different reservoirs of Manaus, Brazil, by Community Land Model incorporating stable isotopic effectINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 5 2009Xin-Ping Zhang Abstract The daily and monthly variations of stable water isotopes in different reservoirs at Manaus, Brazil, are simulated and inter-compared in an equilibrium year, using the Community Land Model (CLM) involving the stable isotopic effects as a diagnostic tool for an in-depth understanding of the hydrometeorological processes. On the daily scale, the ,18O in precipitation, vapour and surface runoff have clear seasonality, with marked negative correlations with the corresponding water amount. However, the ,18O in surface dew displays marked positive correlation with dew amount. On the diurnal time scale, the ,18O in precipitation displays an unclear diurnal variation and an unmarked correlation with the precipitation amount. However, the ,18O in vapour keeps consistency with specific humidity. On the monthly time scale, the ,18O in precipitation and surface runoff displays distinct bimodal seasonality, with two maxima in January and in July, and two minima in April and in October; Vapor displays a similar bimodal pattern, two maxima appear in January and August, and two minima in April and November. The amount effect simulated on the monthly time scale has consistency with the actual survey result at the Manaus station, from 1965 to 1990, set up by International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)/World Meteorological Organization (WMO). In addition, the slope (7.49) and the intercept (6.25) of the simulated meteoric water line (MWL) are all smaller than those of the actual mean MWL. However, compared with the annual MWL, the simulated MWL lies within the variation range of actual MWLs. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Radar-guided interpolation of climatological precipitation dataINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 2 2009Arthur T. DeGaetano Abstract A refined approach for interpolating daily precipitation accumulations is presented, which combines radar-based information to characterize the spatial distribution and gross accumulation of precipitation with observed daily rain-gauge data to adjust for spatially varying errors in the radar estimates. Considering the rain gauge observations to be true values at each measurement location, daily radar errors are calculated at these points. These errors are then interpolated back to the radar grid, providing a spatially varying daily adjustment that can be applied across the radar domain. In contrast to similar techniques that are employed at hourly intervals to adjust radar-rainfall estimates operationally, this refined approach is intended to provide high-spatial-resolution precipitation data for climatological purposes, such as drought and environmental monitoring, retrospective impact analyses, and (when time series of sufficient length become available) assessment of temporal precipitation variations at high-spatial-resolution. Compared to the Multisensor Precipitation Estimators (MPEs) used operationally, the refined method yields lower cross-validated interpolation errors regardless of season or daily precipitation amount. Comparisons between cross-validated radar estimates aggregated to monthly totals with operational (non-cross-validated) Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) precipitation estimates are also favourable. The new method provides a radar-based alternative to similar climatologies based on the spatial interpolation of gauge data alone (e.g. PRISM). Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Daily dataset of 20th-century surface air temperature and precipitation series for the European Climate AssessmentINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 12 2002A. M. G. Klein Tank Abstract We present a dataset of daily resolution climatic time series that has been compiled for the European Climate Assessment (ECA). As of December 2001, this ECA dataset comprises 199 series of minimum, maximum and/or daily mean temperature and 195 series of daily precipitation amount observed at meteorological stations in Europe and the Middle East. Almost all series cover the standard normal period 1961,90, and about 50% extends back to at least 1925. Part of the dataset (90%) is made available for climate research on CDROM and through the Internet (at http://www.knmi.nl/samenw/eca). A comparison of the ECA dataset with existing gridded datasets, having monthly resolution, shows that correlation coefficients between ECA stations and nearest land grid boxes between 1946 and 1999 are higher than 0.8 for 93% of the temperature series and for 51% of the precipitation series. The overall trends in the ECA dataset are of comparable magnitude to those in the gridded datasets. The potential of the ECA dataset for climate studies is demonstrated in two examples. In the first example, it is shown that the winter (October,March) warming in Europe in the 1976,99 period is accompanied by a positive trend in the number of warm-spell days at most stations, but not by a negative trend in the number of cold-spell days. Instead, the number of cold-spell days increases over Europe. In the second example, it is shown for winter precipitation between 1946 and 1999 that positive trends in the mean amount per wet day prevail in areas that are getting drier and wetter. Because of its daily resolution, the ECA dataset enables a variety of empirical climate studies, including detailed analyses of changes in the occurrence of extremes in relation to changes in mean temperature and total precipitation. Copyright © 2002 Royal Meteorological Society. [source] PRECIPITATION CHANGES FROM 1956 TO 1996 ON THE WALNUT GULCH EXPERIMENTAL WATERSHED,JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN WATER RESOURCES ASSOCIATION, Issue 1 2002Mary H. Nichols ABSTRACT: The climate of Southern Arizona is dominated by summer precipitation, which accounts for over 60 percent of the annual total. Summer and non-summer precipitation data from the USDA-ARS Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed are analyzed to identify trends in precipitation characteristics from 1956 to 1996. During this period, annual precipitation increased. The annual precipitation increase can be attributed to an increase in precipitation during non-summer months, and is paralleled by an increase in the proportion of annual precipitation contributed during non-summer months. This finding is consistent with previously reported increases in non-summer precipitation in the southwestern United States. Detailed event data were analyzed to provide insight into the characteristics of precipitation events during this time period. Precipitation event data were characterized based on the number of events, event precipitation amount, 30-minute event intensity, and event duration. The trend in non-summer precipitation appears to be a result of increased event frequency since the number of events increased during nonsummer months, although the average amount per event, average event intensity, and average event duration did not. During the summer "monsoon" season, the frequency of recorded precipitation events increased but the average precipitation amount per event decreased. Knowledge of precipitation trends and the characteristics of events that make up a precipitation time series is a critical first step in understanding and managing water resources in semiarid ecosystems. [source] Soil state and surface hydrology diagnosis based on MOSES in the Met Office Nimrod nowcasting systemMETEOROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS, Issue 2 2006R. N. B. Smith Abstract A system has been developed and made operational at the Met Office for the real-time diagnosis of soil state and surface hydrology. It is based on the Met Office Surface Exchanges Scheme (MOSES) modified to take account of unresolved soil and topographic heterogeneity when calculating surface runoff by incorporating a Probability Distributed Moisture (PDM) scheme developed by the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology. The implementation of MOSES-PDM in the Met Office's Nimrod nowcasting system is described. High resolution soil characteristics and land cover data, together with Nimrod's analyses of precipitation amount and type, cloud cover and near-surface atmospheric variables are used to drive MOSES-PDM. Hourly values of snowmelt, runoff, net surface radiation, evaporation, potential evaporation, soil temperature, soil moisture and soil moisture deficit are calculated on a 5 km grid. Copyright © 2006 Royal Meteorological Society. [source] Modeled interactive effects of precipitation, temperature, and [CO2] on ecosystem carbon and water dynamics in different climatic zonesGLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 9 2008YIQI LUO Abstract Interactive effects of multiple global change factors on ecosystem processes are complex. It is relatively expensive to explore those interactions in manipulative experiments. We conducted a modeling analysis to identify potentially important interactions and to stimulate hypothesis formulation for experimental research. Four models were used to quantify interactive effects of climate warming (T), altered precipitation amounts [doubled (DP) and halved (HP)] and seasonality (SP, moving precipitation in July and August to January and February to create summer drought), and elevated [CO2] (C) on net primary production (NPP), heterotrophic respiration (Rh), net ecosystem production (NEP), transpiration, and runoff. We examined those responses in seven ecosystems, including forests, grasslands, and heathlands in different climate zones. The modeling analysis showed that none of the three-way interactions among T, C, and altered precipitation was substantial for either carbon or water processes, nor consistent among the seven ecosystems. However, two-way interactive effects on NPP, Rh, and NEP were generally positive (i.e. amplification of one factor's effect by the other factor) between T and C or between T and DP. A negative interaction (i.e. depression of one factor's effect by the other factor) occurred for simulated NPP between T and HP. The interactive effects on runoff were positive between T and HP. Four pairs of two-way interactive effects on plant transpiration were positive and two pairs negative. In addition, wet sites generally had smaller relative changes in NPP, Rh, runoff, and transpiration but larger absolute changes in NEP than dry sites in response to the treatments. The modeling results suggest new hypotheses to be tested in multifactor global change experiments. Likewise, more experimental evidence is needed for the further improvement of ecosystem models in order to adequately simulate complex interactive processes. [source] Developing a post-fire flood chronology and recurrence probability from alluvial stratigraphy in the Buffalo Creek watershed, Colorado, USA,HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 15 2001John G. Elliott Abstract Stratigraphic and geomorphic evidence indicate floods that occur soon after forest fires have been intermittent but common events in many mountainous areas during the past several thousand years. The magnitude and recurrence of these post-fire flood events reflects the joint probability between the recurrence of fires and the recurrence of subsequent rainfall events of varying magnitude and intensity. Following the May 1996 Buffalo Creek, Colorado, forest fire, precipitation amounts and intensities that generated very little surface runoff outside of the burned area resulted in severe hillslope erosion, floods, and streambed sediment entrainment in the rugged, severely burned, 48 km2 area. These floods added sediment to many existing alluvial fans, while simultaneously incising other fans and alluvial deposits. Incision of older fans revealed multiple sequences of fluvially transported sandy gravel that grade upward into charcoal-rich, loamy horizons. We interpret these sequences to represent periods of high sediment transport and aggradation during floods, followed by intervals of quiescence and relative stability in the watershed until a subsequent fire occurred. An alluvial sequence near the mouth of a tributary draining a 0·82 km2 area indicated several previous post-fire flood cycles in the watershed. Dendrochronologic and radiocarbon ages of material in this deposit span approximately 2900 years, and define three aggradational periods. The three general aggradational periods are separated by intervals of approximately nine to ten centuries and reflect a ,millennium-scale' geomorphic response to a closely timed sequence of events: severe and intense, watershed-scale, stand-replacing fires and subsequent rainstorms and flooding. Millennium-scale aggradational units at the study site may have resulted from a scenario in which the initial runoff from the burned watershed transported and deposited large volumes of sediment on downstream alluvial surfaces and tributary fans. Subsequent storm runoff may have produced localized incision and channelization, preventing additional vertical aggradation on the sampled alluvial deposit for several centuries. Two of the millennium-scale aggradational periods at the study site consist of multiple gravel and loam sequences with similar radiocarbon ages. These closely dated sequences may reflect a ,multidecade-scale' geomorphic response to more frequent, but aerially limited and less severe fires, followed by rainstorms of relatively common recurrence. Published in 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Long-term changes and regional differences in temperature and precipitation in the metropolitan area of HamburgINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 8 2010K. H. Schlünzen Abstract Climate changes and the urban climate of the ,green city' Hamburg and its metropolitan region are analyzed using observational data for temperature and precipitation. Values for Hamburg's synoptic site HH-Fuhlsbüttel start in 1891 and are used to determine climate changes. Additional data from up to 45 climate stations are used to analyze the different aspects of the regional climate and urban effects on the temperature [urban heat island (UHI)] and precipitation [urban precipitation impact (UPI)]. The analysis of the long-term data shows that the climate has already changed. Annual precipitation significantly increases ,0.8 mm/year when focusing on years 1891,2007 and ,1.3 mm/year for 1948,2007. Precipitation increases are largest in November through March and March as well as June for 1978,2007. For April and July of this period, a precipitation decrease is found. The precipitation distribution shows that moderate daily precipitation amounts (,10 mm/day) have increased by about 10% between 1948,1977 and 1978,2007. Precipitation amounts > 10 mm/day have increased by 20% in the same period. Average temperatures significantly increase by 0.07 K/decade (1891,2007), 0.19 K/decade (1948,2007), 0.6 K/decade (1978,2007) with largest significant increases in fall. For the UHI, it is found that the average temperature is higher up to 1.1 K in the densely build-up city area than outside. Values are about halved for more green urban areas but also depend on more local impacts. The minimum temperatures are up to 3 K higher and maximum temperatures slightly lower in the inner city than in the rural during summer. The winter temperatures are higher throughout the urban area. The UHI differences depend on wind speed; this dependence is best described by using the inverse square root of the wind speed. Classification using different wind directions shows that the precipitation is significantly higher (5,20%) for downwind of urban areas compared with the upwind side. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society [source] An assessment of temperature and precipitation change projections over Italy from recent global and regional climate model simulationsINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 1 2010Erika Coppola Abstract We present an assessment of climate change projections over the Italian peninsula for the 21st century from the CMIP3 global and PRUDENCE regional model experiments. We consider the A2, A1B, B2 and B1 emission scenarios. The climate change signal over Italy varies seasonally, with maximum warming in summer (up to several °C) and minimum in winter, decreased precipitation over the entire peninsula in summer (locally up to ,40%) and a dipolar precipitation change pattern in winter (increase to the north and decrease to the south). Inter-annual variability increases in all seasons for precipitation and in summer for temperature, while it decreases for winter temperature. The seasonal temperature anomaly probability density functions (PDFs) show a shift as well as a broadening and flattening in future climate conditions, especially in summer. This implies larger increases for extreme hot seasons than mean summer temperatures. The seasonal precipitation anomaly PDFs are greatly affected in summer, with a strong increase of very dry seasons. Moreover, seasons with large precipitation amounts tend to increase in future climate conditions, i.e. we find an increase of very dry (drought prone) and very wet (flood prone) seasons. The magnitude of future climate change depends on the emission scenario and the temperature and precipitation change signals show substantial fine-scale structure in response to the topographical forcing of the Italian major mountain systems. In addition, the change signal is greater than the inter-model standard deviation for temperature in all seasons and for precipitation in the summer. Finally, the CMIP3 ensemble captures the observed 20th century trends of temperature and precipitation change over northern Italy. A broad agreement between the projections obtained with the CMIP3 and PRUDENCE ensembles is found, which adds robustness to the findings. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society [source] The scaling law relating world point-precipitation records to durationINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 5 2004S. Galmarini Abstract In order to understand the remarkable six-orders of magnitude scaling law underlying worldwide point-precipitation records, we analyse precipitation data from a wide range of stations worldwide. The analysis shows that single-exponent scaling laws exist only for single stations experiencing extremely high precipitation. This analysis, and a consideration of the sequence of earlier published precipitation records, leads us to conclude that record precipitation exists because of an optimization of all factors leading to precipitation. This idea is incorporated into a scheme for simulating the record,duration curve for precipitation, which utilizes only the probability distribution function for precipitation amounts, the temporal autocorrelation of precipitation and a starting record,duration point. The simulation suggests record precipitation is asymptotically independent of most underlying physical processes. Copyright © 2004 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Performance of statistical downscaling models in GCM validation and regional climate change estimates: application for Swedish precipitationINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 5 2001Aristita Busuioc Abstract This study deals with an analysis of the performance of a general circulation model (GCM) (HadCM2) in reproducing the large-scale circulation mechanisms controlling Swedish precipitation variability, and in estimating regional climate changes owing to increased CO2 concentration by using canonical correlation analysis (CCA). Seasonal precipitation amounts at 33 stations in Sweden over the period 1899,1990 are used. The large-scale circulation is represented by sea level pressure (SLP) over the Atlantic,European region. The link between seasonal Swedish precipitation and large-scale SLP variability is strong in all seasons, but especially in winter and autumn. For these two seasons, the link is a consequence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern. In winter, another important mechanism is related to a cyclonic/anticyclonic structure centred over southern Scandinavia. In the past century, this connection has remained almost unchanged in time for all seasons except spring. The downscaling model that is built on the basis of this link is skilful in all seasons, but especially so in winter and autumn. This observed link is only partially reproduced by the HadCM2 model, while large-scale SLP variability is fairly well reproduced in all seasons. A concept about optimum statistical downscaling models for climate change purposes is proposed. The idea is related to the capability of the statistical downscaling model to reproduce low frequency variability, rather than having the highest skill in terms of explained variance. By using these downscaling models, it was found that grid point and downscaled climate signals are similar (increasing precipitation) in summer and autumn, while in winter, the amplitudes of the two signals are different. In spring, both signals show a slight increase in the northern and southern parts of Sweden. Copyright © 2001 Royal Meteorological Society [source] High-resolution limited-area ensemble predictions based on low-resolution targeted singular vectorsTHE QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, Issue 582 2002Inger-Lise Frogner Abstract The operational limited-area model, HIRLAM, at the Norwegian Meteorological Institute is used at 0.25° latitude/longitude resolution for ensemble weather prediction over Northern Europe and adjacent parts of the North Atlantic Ocean; this system is called LAMEPS. Initial and lateral boundary perturbations are taken from coarse-resolution European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts global ensemble members based on targeted singular vectors (TEPS). Five winter and five summer cases in 1997 consisting of 20 ensemble members plus one control forecast are integrated. Two sets of ensembles are generated, one for which both initial and lateral boundary conditions are perturbed, and another with only the initial fields perturbed. The LAMEPS results are compared to those of TEPS using the following measures: r.m.s. ensemble spread of 500 hPa geopotential height; r.m.s. ensemble spread of mean-sea-level pressure; Brier Skill Scores (BSS); Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves; and cost/loss analyses. For forecasts longer than 12 hours, all measures show that perturbing the boundary fields is crucial for the performance of LAMEPS. For the winter cases TEPS has slightly larger ensemble spread than LAMEPS, but this is reversed for the summer cases. Results from BSS, ROC and cost/loss analyses show that LAMEPS performed considerably better than TEPS for precipitation, a result that is promising for forecasting extreme precipitation amounts. We believe this result to be linked to the high predictability of mesoscale flows controlled by complex topography. For two-metre temperature, however, TEPS frequently performed better than LAMEPS. Copyright © 2002 Royal Meteorological Society [source] A weighting proposal for an ensemble of regional climate models over Europe driven by 1961,2000 ERA40 based on monthly precipitation probability density functionsATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE LETTERS, Issue 4 2009E. Sánchez Present climate over Europe is simulated by 12 regional climate models (RCMs), forced by ERA40 reanalysis. A method is proposed to score models from the 1961,1990 monthly precipitation cumulative density functions (CDFs) for each season and eight chosen subregions, compared with the CRU observational database. Ensemble CDF curves compare well against observations for all the subregions and seasons. Higher percentiles (heavy precipitation amounts) show a larger spread among results. Important differences in scores are obtained among models, regions and seasons. Applying the scores to compute 1991,2000 weighted ensemble precipitation, results are slightly closer to observations than the direct (unweighted) ensemble, and some cases show a larger improvement. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society [source] | |||||||||||||