Home About us Contact
|
Home About us Contact | ||
|
|
||
Possible Outcomes (possible + outcome)
Selected AbstractsDrinking Against Unpleasant Emotions: Possible Outcome of Early Onset of Alcohol Use?ALCOHOLISM, Issue 6 2010Arlette F. Buchmann Background:, Recent animal and human studies indicate that the exposure to alcohol during early adolescence increases the risk for heavy alcohol use in response to stress. The purpose of this study was to examine whether this effect may be the consequence of a higher susceptibility to develop "drinking to cope" motives among early initiators. Methods:, Data from 320 participants were collected as part of the Mannheim Study of Children at Risk, an ongoing epidemiological cohort study. Structured interviews at age 15 and 19 were used to assess age at first alcohol experience and drunkenness. The young adults completed questionnaires to obtain information about the occurrence of stressful life events during the past 4 years and current drinking habits. In addition, alcohol use under conditions of negative states was assessed with the Inventory of Drinking Situations. Results:, The probability of young adults' alcohol use in situations characterized by unpleasant emotions was significantly increased the earlier they had initiated the use of alcohol, even when controlling for current drinking habits and stressful life events. Similar results were obtained for the age at first drunkenness. Conclusions:, The findings strengthen the hypothesis that alcohol experiences during early adolescence facilitate drinking to regulate negative affect as an adverse coping strategy which may represent the starting point of a vicious circle comprising drinking to relieve stress and increased stress as a consequence of drinking. [source] Metformin use and diabetic pregnancy,has its time come?DIABETIC MEDICINE, Issue 3 2006G. Hawthorne Abstract The prevalence of Type 2 diabetes in women of childbearing age continues to grow as the incidence of Type 2 diabetes increases. Recent evidence shows that treatment of gestational diabetes ensures the best possible outcome for pregnancy complicated by gestational diabetes. Metformin is a logical treatment in these circumstances but there has always been concern about its safety for the fetus, particularly as it crosses the placenta and it may increase the risk of teratogenesis. Although evidence is accumulating that metformin is useful and has a role in polycystic ovary syndrome, a condition of insulin resistance, it is not yet accepted as treatment for Type 2 diabetes in pregnancy and gestational diabetes. Observational data supports the use of metformin in Type 2 diabetes in pregnancy and its role in gestational diabetes is currently under investigation. Metformin may become an important treatment for women with either gestational or Type 2 diabetes in pregnancy and indeed may have additional important benefits for women, including reducing insulin resistance, body weight and long-term risk of diabetes. There is a need for a randomized controlled trial in women with Type 2 diabetes in pregnancy with long-term follow-up of both mothers and children. Until then the best advice remains that optimized glycaemic control prior to conception and during pregnancy is the most important intervention for best possible pregnancy outcome. [source] A model for evaluating the effect of fatigue crack repair by the infiltration methodFATIGUE & FRACTURE OF ENGINEERING MATERIALS AND STRUCTURES, Issue 10 2000C. S. Shin Infiltration of foreign materials into a fatigue crack has previously been shown to be able to retard the crack and extend fatigue life. Most of the related studies were empirical and phenomenological in nature. To aid engineering decisions, it would be advantageous if the possible outcome of a repair can be evaluated beforehand. To this end, a crack closure model taking into account the additional closure effect of the infiltrant has been developed and verified against experimental results. With this model, the sensitivity of the repair effect to various parameters such as mechanical properties of the infiltrant, depth of penetration and infiltration load level can be assessed. [source] Demand for cash balances in a cashless economyINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC THEORY, Issue 3 2009Richard Dusansky D11; D91; E41 We study the demand for cash balances in the year 2050, when people exclusively use debit cards for all transactions. Money no longer serves as a medium of exchange. However, money still retains its roles as unit of account, numeraire and store of value. We capture these roles in a multi-period model with intertemporal uncertainty regarding prices and the interest rate on bonds, the alternative asset. A key result of our analysis is that the standard negative relationship between money demand and the bond interest rate is seen to be part of a larger economic reality encompassing a broader range of empirically testable implications, including the possibility that the relationship may be positive. We develop formal structural restrictions under which the positive relationship between cash balance demand and the bond interest rate is not only a possible outcome, but an explicit prediction of the model. [source] Clients' perceptions of support received from health visitors during home visitsJOURNAL OF CLINICAL NURSING, Issue 7 2005Caroline Plews BA Aims and objectives., The current study sought to identify how many mothers from 149 visits carried out by seven health visitors identified support as a feature of the visit, whether this type of support was unique to the health visitor and what support meant to them. These responses were then compared with the taxonomies of social support from the social support literature. Background., Some studies of client perceptions describe support as an element of home visits by health visitors. However, the importance, relevance and impact on the client of this support are not described in detail. Social support theory suggests that there are tangible benefits to people's well-being and their ability to cope with various challenges that may arise from individuals' perceptions of receiving support. Design., Qualitative study using semistructured interviews. Methods., Seven volunteer health visitors recruited 149 women into the study. These clients were interviewed by the researcher, usually within one week of the home visit by their health visitor. The discussions were audio-taped and the resulting transcripts analysed using content analysis. Findings., Thirty-seven women identified receiving support which they said was only available from the health visitor. The relevance of this support to the mother and the impact on her well-being varied within the group suggesting differing perceptions of support by clients according to their personal situation. There was a correspondence between the descriptions of support given by the women and the taxonomies of social support from the social support literature. Conclusion., For some interactions between clients and their health visitors the existing theory of social support may provide an explanation of how health visitors contribute to clients' perceived ability to cope and well-being. Relevance to clinical practice., Social support may be defined as a possible outcome of health visiting. This concept will have use within educational programmes to demonstrate to students how health visiting can have an impact on clients' well-being. Similarly, the concept could be used to investigate and record health visiting practice. [source] Psychotherapy in Argentina: A clinical case from an integrative perspectiveJOURNAL OF CLINICAL PSYCHOLOGY, Issue 8 2007Beatriz GómezArticle first published online: 29 JUN 200 The article describes psychotherapy practice in Argentina. It outlines the main features of training and regulation of clinical psychologists. A brief description of the main treatment approaches and the major current challenges is presented. Subsequently it delineates the probable treatment locations and options for a 30-year-old woman, Mrs. A, seeking psychological help in Argentina. The case is then considered from an integrative perspective starting with the intake process, which includes a comprehensive pretreatment assessment followed by the treatment plan. Its course is described as composed of four stages: (1) psychoeducational initial intervention, (2) psychotherapy for symptom alleviation, (3) marital treatment, and (4) psychoeducational final intervention. Posttreatment evaluation and possible outcome and prognosis are presented, as well as factors that might prevent improvment. The article ends with a hopeful view of the future role of psychotherapy in Argentina. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Clin Psychol: In Session 63: 713,723, 2007. [source] Reproductive character displacement is not the only possible outcome of reinforcementJOURNAL OF EVOLUTIONARY BIOLOGY, Issue 1 2004A. R. Lemmon Abstract We study the form of the clines in a female mating preference and male display trait using simulations of a hybrid zone. Allopatric populations of two species are connected by demes in a stepping stone arrangement. Results show that reproductive character displacement (a pattern of increased prezygotic isolation in sympatry compared with allopatry) may or may not result when there is reinforcement (defined here as the strengthening of prezygotic isolation as a result of selection against hybrids, relative to the amount of prezygotic isolation present when hybrids are not selected against). Further, reproductive character displacement of the preference may or may not occur when it occurs in the male display. We conclude that the absence of reproductive character displacement is not evidence against the operation of reinforcement. [source] Devil inside: does plant programmed cell death involve the endomembrane system?PLANT CELL & ENVIRONMENT, Issue 9 2010JEAN-LUC CACAS ABSTRACT Eukaryotic cells have to constantly cope with environmental cues and integrate developmental signals. Cell survival or death is the only possible outcome. In the field of animal biology, tremendous efforts have been put into the understanding of mechanisms underlying cell fate decision. Distinct organelles have been proven to sense a broad range of stimuli and, if necessary, engage cell death signalling pathway(s). Over the years, forward and reverse genetic screens have uncovered numerous regulators of programmed cell death (PCD) in plants. However, to date, molecular networks are far from being deciphered and, apart from the autophagic compartment, no organelles have been assigned a clear role in the regulation of cellular suicide. The endomembrane system (ES) seems, nevertheless, to harbour a significant number of cell death mediators. In this review, the involvement of this system in the control of plant PCD is discussed in-depth, as well as compared and contrasted with what is known in animal and yeast systems. [source] Chronic pain following a Lichtenstein inguinal hernia repair: a clinical and legal dilemmaANZ JOURNAL OF SURGERY, Issue 7-8 2009Abhilash Paily Abstract Background:, Chronic pain following a Lichtenstein inguinal hernia is frequent and raises major concerns regarding informed consent recall Objective:, To assess the frequency of chronic pain and associated factors following inguinal hernia repair in a district general hospital. To assess patient recall of the consent process as it pertains to chronic pain. Methods:, A random sample (170/293 patients) of those who underwent a Lichtenstein inguinal hernia repair between 2002 and 2004 were retrospectively assessed for the frequency, intensity and other co-factors of chronic pain. They were also questioned about their recollection of the consent process and information given regarding chronic pain. Results:, 50 percent of patients reported chronic pain at a median follow-up of 62 months with 30% reporting a significant impact on daily activities. Younger age, the absence of a lump at presentation, pre-operative pain and elective repair were the only factors significantly shown to increase the likelihood of post-operative pain. Patients with post-operative pain were significantly more likely to report that they had not been informed of the possibility of chronic pain pre-operatively or at the time of consent. Twenty percent of these patients stated that they would not have undergone the operation if they had been informed of the possibility of chronic pain. Conclusion:, Chronic pain is frequent and debilitating. Documentation of chronic pain as a possible outcome at the time of consent should be mandatory as patient recall is poor. [source] Mandibular first premolar with two roots and three canalsAUSTRALIAN ENDODONTIC JOURNAL, Issue 1 2010Saravanan Poorni bds Abstract This case report presents a relatively uncommon clinical case of a mandibular premolar with two roots and three canals. The possibility of additional root canals should be considered even in teeth with a low frequency of abnormal root canal anatomy. Sound knowledge of root canal anatomy, appropriate assessment of the pulp chamber floor, critical interpretation of radiographs and high-magnification examinations are highly desirable to achieve the best possible outcome in complicated root canal therapy. [source] Invasiveness in plant communities with feedbacksECOLOGY LETTERS, Issue 4 2007Margaret J. Eppstein Abstract The detrimental effects of invasive plant species on ecosystems are well documented. While much research has focused on discovering ecological influences associated with invasiveness, it remains unclear how these influences interact, causing some introduced exotic species to become invasive threats. Here we develop a framework that incorporates the influences of propagule pressure, frequency independent growth rates, feedback relationships, resource competition and spatial scale of interactions. Our results show that these ecological influences interact in complex ways, resulting in expected outcomes ranging from inability to establish, to naturalization, to conditional invasion dependent on quantity and spatial distribution of propagules, to unconditional takeover. We propose a way to predict the likelihood of these four possible outcomes, for a species recently introduced into a given target community. Such information could enable conservation biologists to craft strategies and target remediation efforts more efficiently and effectively in order to help maintain biodiversity in ecological communities. [source] Model uncertainty in the ecosystem approach to fisheriesFISH AND FISHERIES, Issue 4 2007Simeon L. Hill Abstract Fisheries scientists habitually consider uncertainty in parameter values, but often neglect uncertainty about model structure, an issue of increasing importance as ecosystem models are devised to support the move to an ecosystem approach to fisheries (EAF). This paper sets out pragmatic approaches with which to account for uncertainties in model structure and we review current ways of dealing with this issue in fisheries and other disciplines. All involve considering a set of alternative models representing different structural assumptions, but differ in how those models are used. The models can be asked to identify bounds on possible outcomes, find management actions that will perform adequately irrespective of the true model, find management actions that best achieve one or more objectives given weights assigned to each model, or formalize hypotheses for evaluation through experimentation. Data availability is likely to limit the use of approaches that involve weighting alternative models in an ecosystem setting, and the cost of experimentation is likely to limit its use. Practical implementation of an EAF should therefore be based on management approaches that acknowledge the uncertainty inherent in model predictions and are robust to it. Model results must be presented in ways that represent the risks and trade-offs associated with alternative actions and the degree of uncertainty in predictions. This presentation should not disguise the fact that, in many cases, estimates of model uncertainty may be based on subjective criteria. The problem of model uncertainty is far from unique to fisheries, and a dialogue among fisheries modellers and modellers from other scientific communities will therefore be helpful. [source] Why health expectations and hopes are different: the development of a conceptual modelHEALTH EXPECTATIONS, Issue 4 2009Karen K. Leung BA (Hons) Abstract Background, In the literature, ,hope' has often been thought of as an ideal expectation. However, we believe the classification of hope as a type of expectation is problematic. Although both hopes and expectations are future-oriented cognitions, expectations are distinct in that they are an individual's probability-driven assessment of the most likely outcomes, while hopes are an assessment of the most desirable , but not necessarily the most probable , outcomes. Aim, This paper presents a conceptual model of the factors that may serve as common antecedents of hopes and expectations, and a mechanism that may mediate their differentiation. Method, Ovid Healthstar and PsycINFO database searches from January 1967 to October 2008 were conducted. An integrative literature review, synthesis and conceptual model development were carried out. Outcome, Our model envisages the differentiation of hope from expectation as a dynamic, longitudinal process consisting of three phases: appraisal of possible outcomes, cognitive analysis for achieving hopes and goal pursuit. Key variables such as temporal proximity, controllability, external resources, goals, affect, agency and pathways may moderate the extent of divergence by influencing the perceived probability of achieving desired outcomes. Conclusion, Hopes and expectations are distinct, but linked, constructs. This preliminary conceptual model presents how hopes and expectations develop, become differentiated and how social-cognitive factors may moderate this relationship. A better understanding of hopes and expectations may assist health professionals in communicating illness-related expectations while maintaining the integrity of patient hopes. [source] Real Options: Meeting the Georgetown ChallangeJOURNAL OF APPLIED CORPORATE FINANCE, Issue 2 2005Thomas E. Copeland In response to the demand for a single, generally accepted real options methodology, this article proposes a four-step process leading to a practical solution to most applications of real option analysis. The first step is familiar: calculate the standard net present value of the project assuming no managerial flexibility, which results in a value estimate (and a "branch" of a decision tree) for each year of the project's life. The second step estimates the volatility of the value of the project and produces a value tree designed to capture the main sources of uncertainty. Note that the authors focus on the uncertainty about overall project value, which is driven by uncertainty in revenue growth, operating margins, operating leverage, input costs, and technology. The key point here is that, in contrast to many real options approaches, none of these variables taken alone is assumed to be a reliable surrogate for the uncertainty of the project itself. For example, in assessing the option value of a proven oil reserve, the relevant measure of volatility is the volatility not of oil prices, but of the value of the operating entity,that is, the project value without leverage. The third step attempts to capture managerial flexibility using a decision "tree" that illustrates the decisions to be made, their possible outcomes, and their corresponding probabilities. The article illustrate various kinds of applications, including a phased investment in a chemical plant (which is treated as a compound option) and an investment in a peak-load power plant (a switching option with changing variance, which precludes the use of constant risk-neutral probabilities as in standard decision tree analysis). The fourth and final step uses a "no-arbitrage" approach to form a replicating portfolio with the same payouts as the real option. For most corporate investment projects, it is impossible to locate a "twin security" that trades in the market. In the absence of such a security, the conventional NPV of a project (again, without flexibility) is the best candidate for a perfectly correlated underlying asset because it represents management's best estimate of value based on the expected cash flows of the project. [source] Beneficial links for the control of aphids: the effects of compost applications on predators and preyJOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY, Issue 4 2008James R. Bell Summary 1Polyphagous predators, such as spiders and beetles, perform a fundamental ecosystem service as regulators of agricultural pests, particularly aphids. They are most effective when they colonize the crop before the pest has reached its exponential growth phase. However, this is also when predators find themselves in a state of near-starvation. 2Predator numbers can be enhanced by applications of different types of organic matter, but the mechanism is not clearly understood. One hypothesis is that compost applied to the field may introduce a new detrital food chain to maintain predators until the pest arrives, but this may also be detrimental to effective pest control, fostering a surplus of alternative prey and causing a switch away from the pest. To elucidate these possible outcomes, we report on the use of within-field compost applications on aphids and their predators, presenting 4 years of field-scale manipulations. 3We found both direct and indirect links between compost, aphids and predators. In years when compost-treated plots had significantly higher numbers of predators, aphids were in significantly lower numbers than in plots without compost. Conversely, when there was a lack of response by predators, aphid numbers showed similar trends in all treatments. 4In all years, alternative prey responded strongly to compost application and did not fluctuate at the level shown by predators, suggesting that these two prey groups were decoupled. Instead, the predicted positive feedback of compost on predators numbers was either weak or absent. 5Synthesis and applications. The effect of compost on aphids clearly requires further practical refinement if it is to provide constant pest suppression, making it difficult to provide specific management recommendations at this stage. In the short term, compost application may not always confer immediate benefits in terms of pest control alone but this must be set against other better known benefits (moisture retention, nutrients). In the long term, experiments measuring the full trophic pathway are needed to unravel the effects of organic matter type, application time and the siting of compost relative to the crop in order to optimise pest suppression potential. [source] Searching for certainty in an uncertain world: the difficulty of giving up the experiential for the rational mode of thinkingJOURNAL OF BEHAVIORAL DECISION MAKING, Issue 2 2003Yaacov Schul Abstract Our research explores predictions that people make in a simple environment consisting of sequences of a binary signal followed by two possible outcomes. In order to optimize their prediction success, respondents should use a very simple decision rule, called maximization, whereby they consistently predict according to the signal. In line with past research, our findings show that even respondents who realized after the experiment that maximization is optimal failed to use it during the experiment itself. We discuss conditions that weaken or reinforce behaving according to the optimal rule in a repeated choice situation. Experiment 1 shows that individuals who are forced to plan their strategy and justify their actions are more likely to discover and use the optimal rule than those not forced to do so. Thinking about the appropriateness of one's performance can be done in two different orientations: focusing on the past (justifying past actions) or on the future (planning future action). Experiment 2 shows that planning induces rule-base thinking, while justifying fails to do so. These findings are discussed within a theoretical framework which suggest an interplay between the experiential and the rational modes of processing. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Biotic homogenization: a new research agenda for conservation biogeographyJOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY, Issue 12 2006Julian D. Olden Abstract Aim, Biotic homogenization describes the process by which species invasions and extinctions increase the genetic, taxonomic or functional similarity of two or more biotas over a specified time interval. The study of biotic homogenization is a young and rapidly emerging research area in the budding field of conservation biogeography, and this paper aims to synthesize our current knowledge of this process and advocate a more systematic approach to its investigation. Methods, Based on a comprehensive examination of the primary literature this paper reviews the process of biotic homogenization, including its definition, quantification, underlying ecological mechanisms, environmental drivers, the empirical evidence for different taxonomic groups, and the potential ecological and evolutionary implications. Important gaps in our knowledge are then identified, and areas of new research that show the greatest promise for advancing our current thinking on biotic homogenization are highlighted. Results, Current knowledge of the patterns, mechanisms and implications of biotic homogenization is highly variable across taxonomic groups, but in general is incomplete. Quantitative estimates are almost exclusively limited to freshwater fishes and plants in the United States, and the principal mechanisms and drivers of homogenization remain elusive. To date research has focused on taxonomic homogenization, and genetic and functional homogenization has received inadequate attention. Trends over the past decade, however, suggest that biotic homogenization is emerging as a topic of greater research interest. Main conclusions, My investigation revealed a number of important knowledge gaps and priority research needs in the science of biotic homogenization. Future studies should examine the homogenization process for different community properties (species occurrence and abundance) at multiple spatial and temporal scales, with careful attention paid to the various biological mechanisms (invasions vs. extinctions) and environmental drivers (environmental alteration vs. biotic interactions) involved. Perhaps most importantly, this research should recognize that there are multiple possible outcomes resulting from the accumulation of species invasions and extinctions, including biotic differentiation whereby genetic, taxonomic or functional similarity of biotas decreases over time. [source] Maintaining diversity through intermediate disturbances: evidence from rodents colonizing rehabilitating coastal dunesAFRICAN JOURNAL OF ECOLOGY, Issue 4 2000S. M. Ferreira Abstract Rodents inhabit the coastal dune forests of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Here habitat rehabilitation following mining of dunes has resulted in coastal dune forest succession similar to that recorded in nonmined forests. We investigated the colonization of rehabilitating stands and evaluate the role of disturbance in maintaining rodent diversity. A trapping programme was established between July 1993 and February 1995 during which rodent colonization, local extinction and species richness were recorded for rehabilitating stands of different ages. Trends in these variables were closely associated with one of three possible outcomes for a disturbed patch over time, with no intervening disturbances following the initial disturbance. Colonization was initially high which led to an increase in species richness. Extinction was lower than colonization, but became higher when the habitat was 3 years old, which led to a decline in richness. We extrapolate this result assuming negligibly small disturbances after the initiation of rehabilitation and suggest that intermediate levels of disturbance maintain rodent species richness in coastal dune forests. Furthermore, our results illustrated species turnover, a prediction of the recorded outcome, with young stands dominated by Mastomys natalensis and older stands by Saccostomus campestris or Aethomys chrysophilus. Résumé Il y a des rongeurs dans les forêts des dunes côtières du KwaZulu-Natal, en Afrique du Sud. Là, la réhabilitation de l'habitat après l'exploitation minière des dunes a abouti à une succession de forêts côtières des dunes semblable à celle qui est observée dans les forêts non exploitées. Nous avons étudié la colonisation des endroits en voie de réhabilitation et évalué le rôle des perturbations dans le maintien de la diversité des rongeurs. On a mis au point un programme de piégeage entre juillet 1993 et février 1995, pendant lequel on a noté la colonisation par les rongeurs, l'extinction locale et la richesse en espèces pour les endroits à différents stades de réhabilitation. Les tendances pour ces variables étaient étroitement associées à l'un des trois résultats possibles que peut conna,^tre avec le temps un endroit qui a été perturbé, lorsque aucune autre perturbation ne suit la première. La colonisation a d'abord été forte, ce qui a causé un enrichissement des espèces. Les extinctions étaient moins fréquentes que les colonisations, mais elles ont augmenté lorsque le nouvel habitat a atteint l'âge de trois ans, ce qui a entra,^né une perte de richesse en espèces. Nous extrapolons ce résultant en supposant que ce sont de petites perturbations négligeables après le démarrage de la réhabilitation et nous suggérons que des taux moyens de perturbation maintiennent la richesse spécifique des rongeurs dans les forêts des dunes côtières. De plus, nos résultats illustrent une rotation des espèces, une prédiction des résultats rapportés, avec les endroits les plus jeunes dominés par Mastomys natalensis et les plus anciens par Saccostomus campestris et Aethomys chrysophilus. [source] Investment Decisions for Retirement SavingsJOURNAL OF CONSUMER AFFAIRS, Issue 3 2010HAZEL BATEMAN We conducted a choice experiment to investigate whether retirement savers follow simple portfolio theory when choosing investments. We modeled experimental survey data on 693 participants using a scale-adjusted version of the latent class choice model. Results show that underlying variability in response was explained by age and "risk profile" score and that preferences varied with income and age. Younger individuals were conventionally risk averse, but older, higher-income individuals may react positively to both higher returns and increasing risk, when risk is presented as widening ranges of possible outcomes. Respondents tended to choose among a few similar investment options. [source] Therapeutic challenges of multi-beingJOURNAL OF FAMILY THERAPY, Issue 4 2008Kenneth J. Gergen This paper emerges from an attempt to shift the locus of understanding human action from the individual to relationship. In doing so we come to see persons as multi-beings, that is, as constituted within multiple relationships from which they emerge with multiple, incoherent, and often conflicting potentials. Therapy, in this context, becomes a collaborative relationship with the aim of transforming the client's broader relational network. In this view, schooling in a singular practice of therapy artificially limits the therapist's potential, and thus the possible outcomes of the client,therapist relationship. Invited, then, is a reflective eclecticism, in which the myriad potentials of both the therapist and client are considered in tandem. This view is illustrated by contrasting three relational conditions in which clients find themselves, each of which invites a different form of self-expression from the therapist. [source] Forecasting changes in UK interest ratesJOURNAL OF FORECASTING, Issue 1 2008Tae-Hwan Kim Abstract Making accurate forecasts of the future direction of interest rates is a vital element when making economic decisions. The focus on central banks as they make decisions about the future direction of interest rates requires the forecaster to assess the likely outcome of committee decisions based on new information since the previous meeting. We characterize this process as a dynamic ordered probit process that uses information to decide between three possible outcomes for interest rates: an increase, decrease or no change. When we analyse the predictive ability of two information sets, we find that the approach has predictive ability both in-sample and out-of-sample that helps forecast the direction of future rates. Copyright © 2008 John wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Qualitative Outcome Analysis: Evaluating Nursing Interventions for Complex Clinical PhenomenaJOURNAL OF NURSING SCHOLARSHIP, Issue 2 2000Janice M. Morse Purpose: To describe a method that allows evaluating nursing interventions derived from a qualitative research project, and that shows appropriate interventions. Organizing Framework: Qualitative research has expanded over the last decade and has contributed significantly to Inderstanding patients' experiences of health, illness, and injury. Yet the value of qualitative research in determining clinical interventions and subsequently evaluating the effects of these interventions on patients' outcomes has been limited. This method is used to confirm the efficacy of nursing interventions when experience changes over time, to extend the repertoire of intervention strategies, and to further clinicians' understanding of possible outcomes. Design: From a completed study, Qualitative Outcome Analysis (QOA) enhances the identification of meaningful intervention strategies and plans for utilization. The researcher identifies the type of qualitative data that will enable the interpretation and evaluation of interventions, devises a means of data ecording and analysis, and finally, disseminates the findings. Conclusions: QOA is a systematic means to confirm the applicability of clinical strategies developed from a single qualitative project, to extend the repertoire of clinical interventions, and to evaluate clinical outcomes. [source] The public issue life cycle and corporate political actions in China's transitional environment: a case of real estate industryJOURNAL OF PUBLIC AFFAIRS, Issue 3 2008Zhilong Tian Based on the ,structured content analysis' of the longitudinal data from a journal of Chinese real estate industry during last 11 years, this paper studies the nature of public issue life cycle and corresponding corporate political actions (CPAs) in a transitional economy. This paper finds out that in a transitional economy like China: (1) a new stage called ,policy trial' and double steps of policy introduction were found in the public issue life cycle; (2) the possible outcomes of Chinese public issues are partially consistent with Tombari's arguments; (3) the evolution of CPAs takes a more complex and different path compared with that in the West. In general, this paper provides an available research perspective (the public issue life cycle model) for firms to manage and monitor their external political environment by effectively developing CPAs in a transitional economy. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Assessing Cost-Effectiveness of Sealant Placement in ChildrenJOURNAL OF PUBLIC HEALTH DENTISTRY, Issue 2 2005Rocio B. Quiñonez DMD Abstract Objective: The lack of cost-effectiveness information regarding sealant placement strategies is thought to have influenced reimbursement policies and subsequent sealant utilization in dental practice. This study compared three strategies for managing the occlusal surfaces of first permanent molars: seal all (SA), risk-based (RBS), and seal none (SN). Methods: A decision tree was developed for various possible outcomes following each of the above strategies. Due to the complexity of the decision tree, a Markov model was used to allow for the construction of a chain of events representing the natural history of sealant retention, caries formation, and their associated health states. The outcome measures were the incremental cost per month gained in a cavity-free state over a ten-year period. Results: Our theoretical model showed that RBS strategy improved clinical outcomes, in the form of cavity-free months, and saved money over SN. The strategy of sealing both high and low risk teeth (SA) further improved outcomes but at an additional cost compared to RBS. However, the cost was small, $08 for each additional cavity-free month gained per tooth. Further, minor changes in the baseline assumptions resulted in the SA strategy being the dominant strategy. Conclusion: This study provides evidence that sealing children's first permanent molars can improve outcomes and save money by delaying or avoiding invasive treatment and the destructive cycle of caries. In a time of limited funds for dental services, these results can assist payers in establishing more rational sealant reimbursement policies. [source] Adult living donor liver transplantation: Preferences about donation outside the medical communityLIVER TRANSPLANTATION, Issue 4 2001Scott J. Cotler MD An increasing number of transplant centers are performing adult living donor liver transplantation (LDLT). We evaluated peoples' perspectives on possible outcomes of living donation, thresholds for donating, and views regarding the donation process. One hundred fifty people were surveyed; half were from a medical care group serving an indigent population and half were from a private clinic. Preferences about outcomes of adult living donation were ranked and quantified on a visual analogue scale. Thresholds for donation to a loved one were quantified. Sixty percent of the respondents suggested they would prefer to donate and die and have the transplant recipient live rather than forgo donation and have the potential transplant recipient die of liver failure. Participants' stated threshold for living donation was a median survival for themselves of only 79%. They would require that their loved one have a median survival of 55% with transplantation before they would agree to donate. Respondents from the medical care group reported higher survival thresholds for themselves and the transplant recipient, and race was the most statistically significant predictor of those thresholds. Sex was more predictive of threshold probabilities from the private clinic. Eighty-one percent of the respondents believed that the potential donor, not a physician, should have the final say regarding candidacy for living donation. In conclusion, the findings of this survey support the use of adult LDLT. Most respondents were willing to accept mortality rates that far exceed the estimated risk of donation and favored outcomes in which a loved one was saved. [source] USING RESERVES TO PROTECT FISH AND WILDLIFE SIMPLIFIED MODELING APPROACHESNATURAL RESOURCE MODELING, Issue 2 2005OLA FLAATEN ABSTRACT. This paper investigates theoretically to what extent a nature reserve may protect a uniformly distributed population of fish or wildlife against negative effects of harvesting. Two objectives of this protection are considered: avoidance of population extinction and maintenance of population, at or above a given precautionary population level. The pre-reserve population is assumed to follow the logistic growth law and two models for post-reserve population dynamics are formulated and discussed. For Model A by assumption the logistic growth law with a common carrying capacity is valid also for the post-reserve population growth. In Model B, it is assumed that each sub-population has its own carrying capacity proportionate to its distribution area. For both models, migration from the high-density area to the low-density area is proportional to the density difference. For both models there are two possible outcomes, either a unique globally stable equilibrium, or extinction. The latter may occur when the exploitation effort is above a threshold that is derived explicitly for both models. However, when the migration rate is less than the growth rate both models imply that the reserve can be chosen so that extinction cannot occur. For the opposite case, when migration is large compared to natural growth, a reserve as the only management tool cannot assure survival of the population, but the specific way it increases critical effort is discussed. [source] Quantifying the impact of above- and belowground higher trophic levels on plant and herbivore performance by modeling1OIKOS, Issue 7 2009Katrin M. Meyer Growing empirical evidence suggests that aboveground and belowground multitrophic communities interact. However, investigations that comprehensively explore the impacts of above- and belowground third and higher trophic level organisms on plant and herbivore performance are thus far lacking. We tested the hypotheses that above- and belowground higher trophic level organisms as well as decomposers affect plant and herbivore performance and that these effects cross the soil,surface boundary. We used a well-validated simulation model that is individual-based for aboveground trophic levels such as shoot herbivores, parasitoids, and hyperparasitoids while considering belowground herbivores and their antagonists at the population level. We simulated greenhouse experiments by removing trophic levels and decomposers from the simulations in a factorial design. Decomposers and above- and belowground third trophic levels affected plant and herbivore mortality, root biomass, and to a lesser extent shoot biomass. We also tested the effect of gradual modifications of the interactions between different trophic level organisms with a sensitivity analysis. Shoot and root biomass were highly sensitive to the impact of the fourth trophic level. We found effects that cross the soil surface, such as aboveground herbivores and parasitoids affecting root biomass and belowground herbivores influencing aboveground herbivore mortality. We conclude that higher trophic level organisms and decomposers can strongly influence plant and herbivore performance. We propose that our modelling framework can be used in future applications to quantitatively explore the possible outcomes of complex above- and belowground multitrophic interactions under a range of environmental conditions and species compositions. [source] THE VALUE OF THE REMUNERATION OF HIGH CIVIL SERVANTS IN BRITAIN IN THE 20TH CENTURY AND ITS IMPLICATIONSPUBLIC ADMINISTRATION, Issue 4 2008JOHN D. RIMINGTON The article traces a large real and comparative decline in the rewards of high civil servants in Great Britain over the 20th century, accelerating since about 1970. It relates this to developments in the market for ,high quality' graduates and to changes in public and governmental attitudes which have affected the size, organization and role of the civil service. It discusses possible causes of the decline in top rewards in terms of three explanatory approaches suggested by social scientists , the ,institutional', the ,cultural', and the views of the ,Chicago School'. Finally, following an examination of changes in the way senior British civil servants are now recruited and remunerated, it considers possible outcomes in terms of effects on the part they can play in the governmental process. [source] Detailed Outcomes Analyses Are Essential for Optimizing Kidney Utilization StrategiesAMERICAN JOURNAL OF TRANSPLANTATION, Issue 12 2009R. P. Pelletier The optimal surgical approach for transplanting pediatric donor kidneys must pit the need to obtain the greatest number of recipients against that of obtaining the best possible outcomes. See article by Kayler et al on page 2745. [source] Children's Thinking About Counterfactuals and Future Hypotheticals as PossibilitiesCHILD DEVELOPMENT, Issue 2 2006Sarah R. Beck Two experiments explored whether children's correct answers to counterfactual and future hypothetical questions were based on an understanding of possibilities. Children played a game in which a toy mouse could run down either 1 of 2 slides. Children found it difficult to mark physically both possible outcomes, compared to reporting a single hypothetical future event, "What if next time he goes the other way ," (Experiment 1: 3,4-year-olds and 4,5-year-olds), or a single counterfactual event, "What if he had gone the other way ,?" (Experiment 2: 3,4-year-olds and 5,6-year-olds). An open counterfactual question, "Could he have gone anywhere else?," which required thinking about the counterfactual as an alternative possibility, was also relatively difficult. [source] | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||