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Population Trajectories (population + trajectory)
Selected AbstractsFood web complexity and chaotic population dynamicsECOLOGY LETTERS, Issue 3 2002Gregor F. Fussmann Abstract In mathematical models, very simple communities consisting of three or more species frequently display chaotic dynamics which implies that long-term predictions of the population trajectories in time are impossible. Communities in the wild tend to be more complex, but evidence for chaotic dynamics from such communities is scarce. We used supercomputing power to test the hypothesis that chaotic dynamics become less frequent in model ecosystems when their complexity increases. We determined the dynamical stability of a universe of mathematical, nonlinear food web models with varying degrees of organizational complexity. We found that the frequency of unpredictable, chaotic dynamics increases with the number of trophic levels in a food web but decreases with the degree of complexity. Our results suggest that natural food webs possess architectural properties that may intrinsically lower the likelihood of chaotic community dynamics. [source] Mortality dynamics and population regulation in Bemisia tabaciENTOMOLOGIA EXPERIMENTALIS ET APPLICATA, Issue 2 2005Steven E. Naranjo Abstract Natural mortality is an important determinant of the population dynamics of a species, and an understanding of mortality forces should aid in the development of better management strategies for insect pests. An in situ, observational method was used to construct cohort-based life tables for Bemisia tabaci (Gennadius) Biotype B (Homoptera: Aleyrodidae) over 14 generations on cotton in central Arizona, USA, from 1997 to 1999. In descending order, median marginal rates of mortality were highest for predation, dislodgment, unknown causes, egg inviability, and parasitism. The highest mortality occurred during the 4th nymphal stadium, and the median rate of immature survival over 14 generations was 6.6%. Predation during the 4th nymphal stadium was the primary key factor. Irreplaceable mortality was highest for predation and dislodgment, with the absence of these mortality factors leading to the greatest increases in estimated net reproduction. There was little evidence of direct or delayed density-dependence for any mortality factor. Wind, rainfall, and predator densities were associated with dislodgment, and rates of predation were related to densities of Geocoris spp., Orius tristicolor (White), Chrysoperla carnea s.l. Stephens, and Lygus hesperus Knight. Simulations suggest that immigration and emigration play important roles in site-specific dynamics by explaining departures from observed population trajectories based solely on endogenous reproduction and mortality. By a direct measurement of these mortality factors and indirect evidence of adult movement, we conclude that efficient pest management may be best accomplished by fostering greater mortality during the 4th stadium, largely through a conservation of predators and by managing immigrating adult populations at their sources. [source] Relative influence of fisheries and climate on the demography of four albatross speciesGLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 7 2010VIRGINIE ROLLAND Abstract Worldwide ecosystems are modified by human activities and climate change. To be able to predict future changes, it is necessary to understand their respective role on population dynamics. Among the most threatened species are top predators because of their position in the food web. Albatross populations are potentially affected by both human activities, especially longline fisheries, and climatic fluctuations. Based on long-term data (1985,2006), we conducted through a comparative approach a demographic analysis (adult survival and breeding success) on four albatross species breeding on the Indian Ocean sub-Antarctic Islands to assess the relative impact of climate and fisheries during and outside the breeding season. The study revealed that adult survival of almost all species was not affected by climate, and therefore probably canalized against climatic variations, but was negatively affected by tuna longlining effort in three species. Breeding success was affected by climate, with contrasted effects between species, with Southern Oscillation Index having an impact on all species but one. Differences in demographic responses depended on the foraging zone and season. In order to predict population trajectories of seabirds such as albatrosses, our results show the importance of assessing the relative influence of fishing and climate impacts on demography. [source] Non-independence of demographic parameters: positive density-dependent fecundity in eaglesJOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY, Issue 5 2008Miguel Ferrer Summary 1Using information on the Doñana population of Spanish imperial eagles Aquila adalberti from 1959 to 2004, we present strong empirical support to theoretical models on the regulation of population trajectories by the relationships between breeder mortality and floater availability. 2During the study period, the eagle population showed three distinct phases: (i) a population increase with negative density-dependent fecundity; (ii) a period of stability without any relationship between density and fecundity; and (iii) a population decrease with a positive relationship between density and fecundity. 3A dramatic increase in annual adult mortality due to an increase in poisoning in hunting areas surrounding the Doñana National Park was recorded. The use of poison against generalist predators accounted for more than 54% of the total number of breeding eagles found dead since 1990, increasing annual adult mortality from 6·07 to 12·01%. 4This high mortality reduced the population annually by 6% during the 1992,2004 period. Also, the population changed from a negative to a positive relationship between density and fecundity (Allee effect). These trends made the population approach extinction due to the double effect of increasing breeder mortality and low availability of floaters. 5A supplementary feeding programme established in 1990 did not increase fecundity because it was a consequence of high adult mortality rather than low food availability. The high mortality of adults increased the risk of breeding failure and also decreased the availability of floaters, decreasing the likelihood of mate substitution. 6Synthesis and applications. The main target in species conservation management plans is often a single demographic parameter (typically, fecundity in raptor populations). Our research demonstrates, however, that demographic parameters must not be considered as independent variables when formulating management programmes. The essential relationship between adult mortality and the availability of floaters must be better understood to avoid the risk of implementing inefficient management strategies. Although fecundity was low in this eagle population, it was a result of high adult mortality rates. Consequently, management must aim to correct the unusual mortality and recover the floater population. [source] Detection, survival rates and dynamics of a cryptic plant, Asclepias meadii: applications of mark-recapture models to long-term monitoring studiesJOURNAL OF ECOLOGY, Issue 2 2009Helen M. Alexander Summary 1Analysis of population trajectories is central to assessing risk in populations of conservation concern. In animal studies, researchers realize that probabilities of detection of individuals are often less than one. Plants can also escape detection due to dormancy, herbivory, or observer error, but such information is rarely incorporated into population studies. 2We monitored a population of Asclepias meadii, a rare long-lived prairie perennial. Despite standardized methods, numbers of observed plants fluctuated greatly from 1992 to 2006. Individual plants often had periods of 1,5 years between initial and final sighting when no stems were found. To determine the actual population trajectories, we estimated rates of survival and population growth using mark-recapture models. We also estimated initial and resighting probabilities of detection. In 2007, we repeated surveys to identify reasons for low detection probabilities. 3We estimated 95% annual survival and a population growth rate of 1.023. Probabilities of initial detection were low (typically from 0.120 to 0.311 depending on prairie burn treatment), whereas average probability of detection for marked plants was 0.728. 4Comparisons of survival estimates from 15- and 8-year data sets revealed that survival estimates decline in the final years of a multi-year period, probably due to heterogeneity in encounter histories. 5By conducting three different surveys in 2007, we found that both herbivory over a multiple-week period and observer error contributed substantially to gaps in detection. 6Synthesis. Probabilities of detection that are less than one complicate interpretation of population dynamics, whether of mobile animals or inconspicuous plants. Our work illustrates three general points that could apply to many plant population studies: (i) mark-recapture models may provide insights on vital rates and population trajectories despite the extreme variability in count data that can arise because of low detectability, (ii) probabilities of initial detection can be quantified and can be considerably less than probabilities of resighting, and (iii) repeated surveys can help researchers determine the degree to which dormancy, herbivory, or observer error contribute to low probabilities of detection. Consideration of these points can improve the design and analysis of monitoring programs. [source] Matrix models for a changeable world: the importance of transient dynamics in population managementJOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY, Issue 3 2010Thomas H. G. Ezard Summary 1.,Matrix population models are tools for elucidating the association between demographic processes and population dynamics. A large amount of useful theory pivots on the assumption of equilibrium dynamics. The preceding transient is, however, of genuine conservation concern as it encompasses the short-term impact of natural or anthropogenic disturbance on the population. 2.,We review recent theoretical advances in deterministic transient analysis of matrix projection models, considering how disturbance can alter population dynamics by provoking a new population trajectory. 3.,We illustrate these impacts using plant and vertebrate systems across contiguous and fragmented landscapes. 4.,Short-term responses are of fundamental relevance for applied ecology, because the time-scale of transient effects is often similar to the length of many conservation projects. Investigation of the immediate, post-disturbance phase is vital for understanding how population processes respond to widespread disturbance in the short- and into the long term. 5.,Synthesis and applications.,Transient analysis is critical for understanding and predicting the consequences of management activities. By considering short-term population responses to perturbations, especially in long-lived species, managers can develop more informed strategies for species harvesting or controlling of invasive species. [source] Demo-genetic analysis of a recovering population of otters in Central SwedenANIMAL CONSERVATION, Issue 6 2008M. Björklund Abstract We performed a demo-genetic population viability analysis on a recovering population of otters Lutra lutra in Central Sweden, using data on population size, survival and genetic data from microsatellites. Population data were obtained from genotyping faeces. At present, the size and genetic variability of the population is increasing. We found that survival to first reproduction was the most crucial demographic parameter, and that even slight changes downward in this parameter, might lead to a declining population trajectory. Human factors that can affect mortality are traffic, fishing equipment and traps, and we argue that efforts to minimize road kills by means of safe passages as well as careful fishing efforts in streams and lakes would reduce the risk of extinction. In general, even though the population is now growing and has no inbreeding problem, its small abundance could make it vulnerable to chance events and environmental perturbations. [source] | ||||||||||